$VIA Misses Estimates Both Top and Bottom Line

“(Reuters) – Viacom Inc reported a 6 percent drop in revenue because of a weak slate of movies from its studio Paramount Pictures, but advertising revenue turned positive during the quarter.

The company said for the quarter that ended March 31, revenue was $3.14 billion, slightly lower than analysts’ expectations of $3.19 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

But its cable network properties, which include MTV and Nickelodeon, were climbing out of a slump as advertising revenue rose 2 percent in the United States.

Viacom has been struggling with a decline in TV ratings…”

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“(Reuters) – Time Warner Inc posted a higher first-quarter profit on Wednesday, as growth in its cable networks offset declines in the film, TV entertainment and publishing units.

The company also stood by its earnings growth outlook for the year, although that forecast does not include the planned spin-off of the publishing business.

Net income for the media company, which owns the CNN cable network, premium TV service HBO and a movie studio, rose to $720 million, or 75 cents per share, from $583 million, or 59 cents a share, a year ago.

Adjusted earnings of 82 cents per share easily beat the consensus Wall Street forecast of 75 cents, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Earnings exceeded even the highest of the 28 estimates that made up the consensus.

But revenue came in below even the lowest Wall Street expectations….”

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“Brent crude fell for a second day after OPEC’s production increased to a five-month high and an industry group said U.S. stockpiles climbed for the first time in three weeks.

Futures slid as much as 1.8 percent in London after dropping 1.4 percent yesterday. U.S. crude inventories rose by 5.2 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said. Government figures today are projected to show a gain of 1.1 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Daily output by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased in April by 194,000 barrels a day, a separate survey indicated. An index of manufacturing in China signaled weaker expansion in April.

“With inventories at the levels they are at, it is a question of how much demand there is, and there is growing evidence of a slowdown in economic activity with even China weaker than expected,” Michael Hewson, a market analyst at CMC Markets Plc in London, said today by telephone. “The direction of travel on oil is down, and I see no reason to change that view unless OPEC cuts production.”

Brent for June settlement slid as much as $1.83 to $100.54 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, the lowest intra-day level in a week, and was at $100.58 at 1:21 p.m. local time. Futures fell $1.44 to $102.37 yesterday, capping a 7 percent drop for April. Trading was 2 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day. Prices are down 9.5 percent this year.

Cushing Supplies

West Texas Intermediate for June delivery declined as much as $1.79 to $91.67 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $91.81 at the same time today. Front-month Brent was at a premium of $8.73 to WTI, the narrowest gap since Dec. 30, 2011…..”

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“Copper fell for a second day in London on concern demand will take time to revive after an official manufacturing gauge was weaker than projected in China, the world’s biggest consumer of the metal.

A Purchasing Managers’ Index was at 50.6 in April, China’s statistics bureau and logistics federation said today, below the 50.7 median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Markets in the country will reopen tomorrow after a three-day break. Copper rose in London trading last week after five weeks of declines, the longest streak since November.

“Chinese end-users were taking advantage of low prices to restock,” Nic Brown, head of commodities research at Natixis SA in London, said by e-mail today. “With China out for three days, the market is losing some of that positive impetus.”

Copper for delivery in three months lost 1.3 percent to $6,964 a metric ton by 9:22 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange after slumping for a third month in April. Copper for delivery in July dropped 1.1 percent to $3.151 a pound on the Comex in New York, where futures trading volumes were 48 percent lower than the average in the past 100 days for the time of day.

“Despite the poor macro data we’ve been seeing in recent weeks, I’d imagine there might also be some replenishment of inventories as demand for copper products begins to improve,” Brown said of China. Imports of refined copper into the country rose in March from a 19-month low, figures showed last week….”

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“As Greece lurched toward its first bailout in early 2010, the largest bank in Cyprus was stocking up on Greek bonds.

That lethal misjudgment helped drive the government in Nicosia toward a rescue of its own, a 10 billion-euro ($13 billion) project involving measures so novel — beyond an unprecedented raid on bank deposits that sparked a global uproar — that policy makers initially kept them under wraps.

Neither a plan for Cyprus to sell gold reserves nor one to repay a loan from the Cypriot central bank with real estate was disclosed in a statement by euro-area finance chiefs in the early morning hours March 16. The measures were cited by Jeroen Dijsselbloem of the Netherlands, the group’s chief, in a confidential recap, which was obtained by Bloomberg News.

“It’s clear they’re making stuff up as they go along: every bailout is different in an unexpectedly horrible new way,” Alexander Apostolides, an economics lecturer at European University Cyprus in Nicosia and a member of the Cypriot government’s economic-advisory council, said in an interview. “They’re not really thinking ahead.”

With another small country, Slovenia, fighting to avoid the euro region’s sixth bailout, the Cypriot misadventure raises the question of how much policy makers have learned in more than three years of straining against the debt crisis.

Hemmed in by an election campaign in Germany, along with demands of the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, policy makers are fighting record unemployment, a second year of recession and austerity and bailout fatigue to keep the 17-nation currency bloc whole.

Building Institutions…”

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“The Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to an eight- week low amid speculation the Federal Reserve will affirm its commitment to maintaining bond purchases when it announces its policy decision today.

The U.S. currency weakened for a fourth day against the euro before an industry report forecast to show America’s private employers added the fewest jobs in six months. The Fed is buying $85 billion of bonds a month as part of its quantitative-easing strategy to put downward pressure on borrowing costs. The pound strengthened after U.K. manufacturing shrank less than economists predicted last month. Australia’s dollar fell after Chinese manufacturing growth slowed.

“Into the Fed meeting I think that we’re going to see further U.S. dollar selling pressure,” said Hans-Guenter Redeker, head of global foreign-exchange strategy at Morgan Stanley in London. “The Fed is going to signal that it’s going to stay accommodative, that it’s going to reconfirm the link between unlimited quantitative easing and the state of the economy.”

The Dollar Index, which Intercontinental Exchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, fell 0.2 percent to 81.58 at 7:01 a.m. in New York after dropping to 81.569, the lowest since Feb. 28.

The dollar declined 0.2 percent to $1.3191 per euro after depreciating to $1.32, the weakest level since April 17. The greenback was little changed at 97.53 yen. The euro strengthened 0.3 percent to 128.66 yen.

The U.S. currency may decline below 94 yen within the next three weeks, Morgan Stanley’s Redeker said.

Fed Purchases…”

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“Commodities dropped for a second day, led by metals and oil after data showed weaker manufacturing growth in China. U.K. stocks and U.S. equity futures rose on bets the Federal Reserve will continue its stimulus efforts.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities fell 1.2 percent as of 8:03 a.m. inLondon, as aluminum slipped 2.2 percent and oil declined 1.5 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose 0.6 percent, while S&P’s 500 Index futures added 0.1 percent. Japan’s Topix Index fell 0.6 percent after posting its best month since 1999. The Dollar Index (DXY) slipped for a fifth straight day. Most European markets were closed for a holiday.

Chinese and Australian reports today signaled a slowdown inmanufacturing as a U.K. Purchasing Managers’ Index showed a third month of contraction. U.S. private employers probably added the fewest jobs in six months, after business activity unexpectedly shrank, according to a Bloomberg survey. The Federal Reserve may consider maintaining its bond-buying program at a two-day meeting concluding today, a separate survey shows.

“There is little doubt that risks to global economic growth for 2013 are tilted to the downside,” said Matthew Sherwood, the Sydney-based head of investment market research at Perpetual Ltd., which manages about $25 billion. “Earnings growth after several years of very subdued performance still seems a bit of a stretch.” …”

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“Australia’s dollar held a two-day gain versus the U.S. currency on bets the Federal Reserve will affirm its commitment to so-called quantitative easing at the end of a policy meeting today.

New Zealand’s kiwi dollar maintained its biggest monthly advance against the greenback since September ahead of U.S. data forecast to show manufacturing activity cooled and private employers added the fewest jobs since October. Factory production expanded in China, the biggest trading partner of both South Pacific nations.

“Not everything is all bright and rosy” in the U.S., Janu Chan, a Sydney-based economist at St. George Bank Ltd., said on a conference call with clients. “QE from the Fed and elsewhere can only mean further upside for the Australian dollar.”

The so-called Aussie slid 0.2 percent to $1.0353 as of 5:01 p.m. in Sydney, following a 0.9 percent gain over the previous two days. The New Zealand dollar added 0.1 percent to 85.72 U.S. cents, after rising 2.3 percent in April.

Two-year Australian bond yields touched 2.56 percent, the lowest since Nov. 1. Ten-year rates were little changed at 3.1 percent.

Prospects the Fed will taper its $85 billion of monthly bond purchases have diminished amid a slowing economic recovery. Minutes from the March meeting show several Fed officials discussed slowing the pace of stimulus.

Private employment rose by 150,000 in April after gaining 158,000 the previous month, data from the Roseland, New Jersey- based ADP Research Institute will probably show today, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

U.S. Manufacturing

The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index, sank to 50.6 in April from March’s 51.3, a second consecutive decrease, according to a separate Bloomberg poll ahead of today’s release. Readings above 50 signal expansion….”

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“Japan joined Germany in opposing a proposed U.S. Federal Reserve rule aimed at compelling large foreign bank holding companies to hold more capital and liquidity in their American subsidiaries.

Bank of Japan Executive Director Hiroki Tanaka asked the Fed Board of Governors in an April 30 letter to “carefully consider major concerns” it has about the proposed rule. Japan’s Financial Services Agency asked that the proposed rule take into account “deference to home country regulation and supervision” in a letter signed by Masamichi Kono, the regulator’s vice commissioner for international affairs.

The letters followed an April 26 note by Bundesbank Vice President Sabine Lautenschlaeger and Bafin President Elke Koenig to the Fed board that “‘go it alone’ national initiatives can tend to weaken the global setup and stability” of systemically important banks “instead of stabilizing them.”

The Fed’s proposal would affect Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s biggest lender, which last year dropped its bank holding company status so that it could meet U.S. requirements without assigning additional capital and liquidity to its unit in the country. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306), Japan’s biggest publicly traded bank, has operations in the U.S. including its San Francisco-based UnionBanCal Corp. unit.

Global Efforts…”

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World Markets

Currencies

Commodities

USD Libor

Euribor

Yields for Italy, Spain, France,  and Germany …

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZap5n3zGZ8 450 300]

“The next Great Depression is already happening – it just hasn’t reached the United States yet.  Things in Europe just continue to get worse and worse, and yet most people in the United States still don’t get it.  All the time I have people ask me when the “economic collapse” is going to happen.  Well, for ages I have been warning that the next major wave of the ongoing economic collapse would begin in Europe, and that is exactly what is happening.  In fact, both Greece and Spain already have levels of unemployment that are greater than anything the U.S. experienced during the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Pay close attention to what is happening over there, because it is coming here too.  You see, the truth is that Europe is a lot like the United States.  We are both drowning in unprecedented levels of debt, and we both have overleveraged banking systems that resemble a house of cards.  The reason why the U.S. does not look like Europe yet is because we have thrown all caution to the wind.  The Federal Reserve is printing money as if there is no tomorrow and the U.S. government is savagely destroying the future that our children and our grandchildren were supposed to have by stealing more than 100 million dollars from them every single hour of every single day.  We have gone “all in” on kicking the can down the road even though it means destroying the future of America.  But the alternative scares the living daylights out of our politicians.  When nations such as Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy tried to slow down the rate at which their debts were rising, the results were absolutely devastating.  A full-blown economic depression is raging across southern Europe and it is rapidly spreading into northern Europe.  Eventually it will spread to the rest of the globe as well.

The following are 20 signs that the next Great Depression has already started in Europe…”

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“Asian stocks declined from the highest level since June 2008, led lower by Japanese shares as the yen strengthened and data signaled a slowdown in global business activity. Oil and copper dropped.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dipped 0.3 percent as of 11:37 a.m. in Tokyo as Japan’s Topix Index slid 0.5 percent after posting its best month since 1999. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed. The yen climbed 0.1 percent to 97.36 per dollar. Crude oil declined 0.4 percent, and copper lost 0.4 percent after the biggest monthly loss since May.

An Australian manufacturing gauge slumped to a four-year low as currency strength weighed on exporters, while China’sPurchasing Managers’ Index expanded at a slower pace, according to reports today. U.S. private employers added the fewest jobs in six months, economists forecast, after business activity unexpectedly shrank in April for the first time in more than three years.

“There is little doubt that risks to global economic growth for 2013 are tilted to the downside,” said Matthew Sherwood, the Sydney-based head of investment market research at Perpetual Ltd., which manages about $25 billion. “Earnings growth after several years of very subdued performance still seems a bit of a stretch.” …”

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“The first major economic report with complete April data is out and it’s a miss.

South Korean exports climbed by just 0.4% year-over-year.  Economists were looking for a gain of 2.0%.

Economists across Wall Street dub South Korean exports as the global economic canary in the coal mine.

Korean trade data usually comes before the first trading session of the month in Asia, which makes it the first of the world’s major economic indicators to be released.

Because Korea’s exports are heavily exposed to China and Japan — the world’s second and third largest economies — it is considered to have strong predictive power….”

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“China’s National Bureau of Statistics just published its April manufacturing PMI report.

The headline number fell to 50.6 from 50.9 in March.

Economists were looking for a reading of 50.7.

Any reading above 50 signals expansion.

Here’s a break down of the March and April reports…”

Full report

“As we approach the end of April, the inevitable question of seasonality arises. Is it time to sell in May and go away?

While many of my intermediate and long term technical indicators are starting to line up, indicating that it may be prudent to start selling now, I am not seeing the bearish trigger yet. To review, let’s consider the charts from the three major regions of the world, US, Europe and China.

What does defensive leadership mean?
In the US, the stock market remains in an uptrend. The SPX, as shown below, remains in an uptrend and it is above both its 50 and 200 day moving average. For traders, it may be premature to get overly bearish without some catalyst or trigger.

The warning signs are there. Defensive sectors have been leading the market. Analysis from Thomson-Reuters shows that the defensive sectors have fared the best in the May-October period during the 21st Century. Is the market is anticipating a downturn or correction?….”

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“We’ve made progress on a lot of things since the 1950s and so have CEOs — in their quest for more money that is.

The ratio of CEO-to-worker pay has increased 1,000 percent since 1950, according to data from Bloomberg. Today Fortune 500 CEOs make 204 times regular workers on average, Bloomberg found. The ratio is up from 120-to-1 in 2000, 42-to-1 in 1980 and 20-to-1 in 1950.

“When CEOs switched from asking the question of ‘how much is enough’ to ‘how much can I get,’ investor capital and executive talent started scrapping like hyenas for every morsel,” Roger Martin, dean of the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management, told Bloomberg.

The findings come just one day after the S&P 500 soared to a new record, indicating that perhaps the only ones not reaping the benefits from the companies’ historic profitability are workers. Other reports have come to similar conclusions. An analysis from the AFL-CIO, the umbrella organization for many of America’s unions, found earlier this month that CEO pay was 354 times that of the average employee….”

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“Expect Labs has already received funding from the likes of Google Ventures and Greylock Partners, but the San Francisco-based startup (and TechCrunch Disrupt alum) announced this morning that Intel Capital, Samsung Ventures, and Telefonica Digital have made their own strategic investments in the company.

In case you haven’t been keeping tabs on Expect Labs, well, you should be. It was founded by Tim Tuttle and Moninder Jheeta in 2011, and since then the team has been tackling a hefty problem — they want to be able to listen to and analyze your conversations as they happen, and surface relevant information right at the moment you need it without you having to search for it.

Granted, some of these new strategic partners are more surprising than others. Our own Jordan Crook sat down with Intel Capital president Arvind Sodhani back in March, who revealed that the chipmaker’s venture arm had indeed invested in Expect Labs and strongly hinted that Intel would lean on the startup’s Anticipatory Computing Engine to bring what Intel refers to as “sophisticated voice control” to ultrabooks. Tuttle naturally wouldn’t confirm whether ultrabooks in particular would soon benefit from Expect Labs tech, but noted that Intel is “trying to develop more expertise in software” and realizes that voice, touch, and gestures will become dominant modes of interaction with new devices.

At first glance, Samsung’s interest in Expect Labs and its thoughtful approach to surfacing information seems like a no-brainer. As seen in blockbuster devices like the Galaxy S4, the Korean electronics giant has sought to stay at the front of the smartphone pack by packing its smartphones full of first-party software like the S Voice assistant. That sort of approach hasn’t always been very well-received, but baking the ability to chew on conversations and spit out information on subjects users have just spoken about into yet another Samsung app would be a very savvy move for a company that’s continually looking to push the envelope on software. It’s not just smartphones that will benefit either — Tuttle specifically calls out smart TVs as a potential recipient of Expect Labs tech.

Telefonica seems like a much more interesting case — it’s the fifth largest mobile network operator in the world with roughly 315 million customers across Europe and the Americas. To date Expect Labs has shown off the proactive power of its Anticipatory Computing Engine in app form, but that sort of approach simply wouldn’t work for many of Telefonica’s subscribers since a considerable chunk of them in developing and mature markets don’t own smartphones…..”

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“After three years of slow roll outs and testing with specific partners, Twitter’s Senior Director of Product for Revenue Kevin Weil justannounced the general availability of its advertising options for all US business. Weil revealed the move on stage at TechCrunch Disrupt, which could ramp up revenues and prep Twitter for a widely anticipated IPO.

Twitter first announced it would begin showing ads in April 2010. Since then it revealed promoted tweets and accounts, which let businesses pay to get their tweets seen and their profiles followed. Twitter more recently announced limited availability of a self-serve tool for buying ads, and an Ads API for programmatic buying of huge campaigns.

“Until today it’s been invite only, we’ve had brands and agencies and small business using the platform, and today we’re opening Tiwtter to all businesses, every account, every individual. Now every business in the US can us Twitter ads” said Weil.

Anyone can now go to Twitter’s self-serve interface to start buying Twitter ads….”

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“The famously gloomy economist Nouriel Roubini has finally fingered an investment he likes. But his advice carries an expiration date.

Roubini is predicting an uptick in stock prices over the next two years as the Federal Reserve continues its stimulus efforts. But buyer beware, Dr. Doom says, because a day of reckoning is lurking at the end of the two-year horizon.

Roubini, an economics professor at New York University best known for predicting the U.S. housing crisis, thinks the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world can and will prop up stocks and bonds for the next two years.

The Fed, he said, is creating the same problems that led to the financial crisis in 2008 by keeping rates near zero. “They are creating massive fraud,” Roubini said during a panel at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles, Calif. Monday.

He pointed to the junk bond market as one example of a bubble.

“At some point, there’s a levitational problem,” said Roubini.

When gravity sets in, Roubini says there will not be a recession but a depression….”

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