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“The average price for regular gasoline at U.S. filling stations increased 3.74 cents over the past two weeks and may have peaked, according to Trilby Lundberg, the president of Lundberg Survey Inc.

The price jump to $3.9671 a gallon covers the period ended April 6 and is based on the Camarillo, California-based company’s survey of about 2,500 stations.

“Price hikes at the pump have been losing steam for weeks,” Lundberg said yesterday in a telephone interview. “Crude oil prices have slipped and if they don’t rebound in the very near future, gasoline prices will peak very soon, if they haven’t already.”

The highest price in the lower 48 U.S. states among the cities surveyed was in Chicago, where the average was $4.45 a gallon, Lundberg said. The lowest price was in Tulsa, Oklahoma, where customers paid an average of $3.66.

On Long Island, regular gasoline was $4.14 a gallon, while Los Angeles-area retail stations averaged $4.27, according to Lundberg.

“The price spikes had been led by places like Chicago and Los Angeles,” Lundberg said. “Now, we see some of these prices tumbling.”

Gasoline on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.3 percent to $3.3405 a gallon in the two weeks ended April 5.

Crude Prices

“Compared to the magnitude of recent price spikes, this is small,” Lundberg said. The increase was the smallest rise for the motor fuel since the two weeks between Jan. 6 and Jan. 20, according to Lundberg Survey. A decline in U.S. oil prices over the past two weeks has helped, she said.

The front-month crude contract on the Nymex fell $3.56 to $103.31 a barrel during that period, while Brent oil in London declined $1.70 to $123.43. Nymex trading was closed April 6 for the Good Friday holiday.

Gasoline futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange have climbed 24 percent this year, the best performance in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI index of 24 commodities.

Prices had surged on speculation that refinery closings would tighten supplies and as crude rose on concern that tensions with Iran over its nuclear program would reduce oil supplies. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude is up 4.5 percent in 2012, and Brent oil on the ICE Futures Europe exchange has gained 15 percent.

Summer Driving Season…”

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“Hedge funds reduced bullish bets on commodities for a second consecutive week as theFederal Reserve signaled it may refrain from more monetary stimulus, increasing concern that growth will slow and curb demand for raw materials.

Money managers lowered net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 2.8 percent to 1.1 million contracts in the week ended April 3, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. Bets on higher corn prices fell to the lowest since February, while those on hogs dropped by the most since May. Speculators cut wagers on costlier crude oil for a third week, and are now the least bullish in two months.

Minutes from the March 13 Fed policy meeting released April 3 showed policy makers will probably hold off on increasing monetary accommodation unless the U.S. economic expansion falters. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities rose more than 80 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the central bank set rates at a record low and bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing. The U.S. economy will accelerate this quarter and the next, economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.

“The market is addicted to stimulus,” said Jeffrey Sica, the Morristown, New Jersey-based president of SICA Wealth Management who helps oversee $1 billion of assets. “This market has risen because of the liquidity push and the market will decline when it’s deprived of liquidity.”

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“Oil fell for the third time in four days after Iran agreed to resume talks on its nuclear program and economic reports in the U.S. and China raised concern about fuel demand.

Futures slid as much as 1.4 percent as trading resumed after the Easter holiday weekend. International negotiations with Iran’s government are scheduled to start this week over its nuclear program. China said inflation in March accelerated more than forecast, reducing the Chinese government’s leeway to boost the economy. The U.S. created 120,000 jobs in March, fewer than forecast and the smallest increase in five months, an April 6 report showed.

The American payroll data “raises the old question mark about the speed of the U.S. recovery,” and whether it will depress oil demand, Olivier Jakob, managing director of Switzerland-based consultant Petromatrix GmbH, said by telephone today.

Oil for May delivery declined as much as $1.44 to $101.87 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $102.13 at 9:10 a.m. London time. The contract gained 1.8 percent to $103.31 on April 5, the latest settlement. Prices have gained 3.3 percent this year.

Brent crude for May settlement slid 89 cents to $122.54 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The premium of the European benchmark to New York futures was at $20.41. Markets were closed in New York and London on April 6 for public holidays…”

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For all you gold bugs….

New York, April 05, 2012 — The US energy sector is undergoing a permanent change as natural gas prices will remain low for the foreseeable future, with significant implications over the next decade for the power, pipeline, coal and rail industries, says a new report by Moody’s Investors Service.

“Moody’s believes that low natural gas prices — currently at a 10-year trough — will continue well beyond 2013. This is creating a fundamental shift in North America’s energy infrastructure, as low prices continue to erode margins for unregulated power companies such as Exelon, First Energy and PPL,” said Jim Hempstead, a Moody’s Senior Vice President and author of the report.

“Coal will find it increasingly difficult to compete with gas as a power source over the next decade and we expect miners to continue their shift toward non-domestic revenue opportunities,” added Hempstead.

Moody’s says that coal-fired power plant retirements will cut the power sector’s demand for coal by up to 10% between 2012 and 2020, and as coal consumption drops by roughly 100 million tons the industry will become increasingly focused on exports. The report highlights Peabody Energy, Arch, Consol and Cloud Peak Energy resources as industry players that are already securing additional port capacity to reach export markets.

The drop in domestic coal demand, one of the US railroad industry’s most profitable segments, will lead to long-term changes in that sector too, says Moody’s. Higher exports from western coal producers will increase volumes for Union Pacific and Burlington Northern Santa Fe. Illinois Basin and met coal production in the east will increasingly benefit CSX and Norfolk Southern.

The report also notes that new natural gas pipelines serving the shale production regions will create new competitive risks for the existing interstate pipeline network. Companies with assets near the production basins, such as NiSource and Dominion Resources, will benefit, but disappearing arbitrage opportunities will hurt the marketing arms of such utilities as AGL Resources and Vectren.

(Reuters) – Global food prices rose in March for a third straight month with more hikes to come, the UN’s food agency said on Thursday, adding to fears of hunger and a new wave of social unrest in poor countries.

Record high prices for staple foods last year were one of the main factors that contributed to the Arab Spring uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as bread riots in other parts of the world.

The cost of food has risen again this year after coming down from a February 2011 record peak.

The FAO index, which measures monthly price changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy, meat and sugar, averaged 215.9 points in March, up from a revised 215.4 points in February, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said.

Although below the February 2011 peak of 237.9, the index is still higher than during a food price crisis in 2007-08 that raised global alarm.

“The food crisis has not gone away since then,” said Emilia Casella, spokeswoman for the U.N.’s World Food Programme. “Prices are a big concern and have remained a large reason why people are food insecure.”

The FAO’s senior economist and grain analyst Abdolreza Abbassian told Reuters there was scope for more price rises in the first half of this year, particularly for corn and soybeans, which could also drive up the price of wheat.

Higher food prices mean higher import bills for the poorest countries, which do not produce enough food domestically.

LONDON (Reuters) – Gold prices rose on Thursday as its fall to a near three-month low the previous day tempted some buyers back, but gains were capped by a rise in the dollar and fading hopes for more U.S. monetary stimulus.

Spot gold was up 0.6 percent at $1,628.34 an ounce at 1420 GMT. It briefly broke back above $1,630 an ounce as a drop in jobless claims pulled the dollar from its highs and stocks from their lows, but was unable to sustain the move.

Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann said a countermove after the sharp price fall of recent days was to be expected, but said he expects prices to trade lower, possibly below $1,600 an ounce, after the current correction has run its course.

“Gold is highly correlated to equities and commodities at the moment and as long as the equity markets and the commodity markets are going down, so is gold,” he said.

European shares hit a two-month low on Thursday and more losses are expected as worries build over Spain’s debt burden and the possibility of more trouble in weaker euro zone states. safe-haven German bunds rose.

Investors will be looking to the March nonfarm payrolls report from the United States on Friday for further clues on the health of the labour market.

A spate of better-than-expected U.S. economic data has curbed investor appetite for gold by raising expectations that quantitative easing will prove unnecessary, especially after Fed minutes on Tuesday suggested more monetary stimulus was unlikely.

Ultra-loose monetary policy, which keeps real interest rates and consequently the opportunity cost of holding gold low, helped push the metal to record highs in 2011.

Crack spreads are down $1.65 or 4.7% @ $34.46

not sure; but i think this is a new record spread….

“Gold traders are bearish for the first time this year after the Federal Reserve signaled it may refrain from more monetary stimulus and jewelers in India, the world’s biggest bullion market, shut to protest a new tax.

Fifteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to decline next week and five were neutral, the highest proportion since Dec. 30. Imports by India may have plunged as much as 81 percent in March and could drop 40 percent in the second quarter, the Bombay Bullion Association said April 2. Indian jewelers, who sell more gold than Australian and U.S. mines produce in a year, were closed today for a 20th day….”

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NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — As U.S. sanctions on Iran tighten and gas prices reach record levels, it is becoming more likely that a release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is in the works. Yet analysts aren’t convinced tapping the SPR is a good idea.

Administration officials said Friday that reserves from the SPR were taken into account when they determined that oil markets could handle the loss of Iranian oil.

Even before the tighter sanctions were announced, there was talk the administration was working with European countries on a plan to tap oil reserves in both the United States and Europe. The rumors have already pushed global oil prices down slightly, although they remain over $120 a barrel.

Still, analysts are skeptical about what impact tapping the SPR would have on prices.

Gold is down 2.66% to $1,627 per oz on the news that there may not be anymore QE coming for the foreseeable future 

A lack of global coal demand took down Australia’s trade deficit for a second month…

Gold is down $43 @ $1,628

Oil is down $0.91 @$103.11

The dollar

EUR / USD

The main graph above shows the price of silver over the last forty years or so, defined by its two explosive moves.  Now the metal is consolidating and triangle watchers are on alert.  The smaller graph shows the action of late, with the triangle lines drawn in as from a page of “global trend lines” in a technical strategies piece from Bloomberg that I saw.

Bespoke:

The only thing worse for drivers than rising crude oil prices here in the US is the rising spread between Brent and WTI crude oil.  Since bottoming out late last year, the spread between the two benchmark prices of crude oil has risen by more than 140% and is now back above $20 per barrel.

Read the rest here.

The best first-quarter gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since 1998 sent U.S. stocks above gold by the most in more than a decade, a sign of growing investor confidence in corporate profits as analysts raise earnings estimates for the first time this year.

Just a buc 50 away from new highs….

BP has shut down some Brent pipelines helping to exacerbate conditions….