Bitumen from Canada to grow significantly…..

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WTI is down $0.74  @$104.18

Brent is down $0.52 @ $119.31

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It looks like hedge funds put on more bets and central banks have increased their gold supplies. Also, some analysts surveyed believe gold will go up in price this week.

Read the article here.

Read what they are saying, here.

“Gold traders are more bullish after central banks expanded their bullion reserves and hedge funds increased bets on a rally for the first time in three weeks.

Fourteen of 28 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to gain next week and nine were neutral, the highest proportion in two weeks. Mexico, Russia and Turkey added about 44.8 metric tons valued at $2.39 billion to reserves in March, International Monetary Fund data show. Fund managers raised their so-called net-long positions by 2.5 percent in the week ended April 17, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission…”

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Spain’s downgrade caused oil to sell off, but in NY both Brent and WTI appear to be hugging the flat line.

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Perhaps this is why XOM increased it dividend ? 

Source

“Oil traded near the highest level in a week in New York after the American Petroleum Institutesaid crude inventories fell in the U.S., the world’s biggest consumer of the commodity.

Futures were little changed after rising 0.4 percent yesterday. U.S. stockpiles decreased by 985,000 barrels last week, the industry-funded API said. An Energy Department report today is forecast to show a gain of 2.8 million barrels. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said crude prices will rise as demand growth outpaces production capacity.

“The API inventory is being accepted as a bullish factor,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity-derivative sales manager at Newedge Group in Tokyo who sees prices trading from $100 to $105 a barrel until at least the end of next week. “Because of the decrease in crude and products inventories, now we can see some gains in the oil market.”

Crude for June delivery was at $103.64 a barrel, up 9 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 2:52 p.m. Singapore time. The contract rose 44 cents to $103.55 yesterday, the highest close since April 17. Front-month prices are 4.9 percent higher this year.

Brent oil for June settlement gained 4 cents to $118.20 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract was at a premium of $14.56, compared with $14.61 yesterday.

Oil’s advance in New York may stall as futures remain in a technical downtrend, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. On the daily chart, the top of a downward-sloping channel going back about two months is $104.38 a barrel today and represents technical resistance, where sell orders tend to be clustered.”

“Coking coal prices are set to rebound as early as July from four straight quarterly declines asChina and India seek raw material overseas to fire new steel production in the world’s fastest-growing major economies.

Contract prices that fell to $206 a metric ton for the quarter ending June 30 may rebound to average $225 a ton this financial year, based on the mean estimate of 10 analysts, steelmakers and mining companies surveyed by Bloomberg. Contracts of coking coal, a key ingredient used to make steel, peaked at $330 in the June quarter last year…”

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To the envy of its New York neighbours, a once sleepy dairy enclave in Pennsylvania has been completely revitalised by shale gas fracking. But the farmers of Troy tell the FT’s Christopher Booker that even if drilling is allowed in New York, problems remain ahead.

Gold is down $18 @ $1,624

WTI is down $0.97 @ $102.76

Brent is down  $1.14 @ $117.62

Read here:

We’re just a few days away from the third Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year, and the air is thick with speculation about QE3, the U.S. economy and our money.

As has been the case for some time, you would be hard-pressed to find a Fed watcher who’s calling for any real drama next week. In short, don’t expect a rate increase or clear pronouncements about future monetary injections. Do expect substantial parsing of every grammatical tweak in the central bank’s statement and ongoing talk about whether the dollar is living on borrowed time.

In all seriousness, the Fed and its actions over the past few years have been no small matter. That holds whether you view Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues as saviors of the American economy, in which case you’ve supported moves aimed at bolstering the money supply, or whether you view them as destroyers of the American economy, in which case you’ve viewed their decisions as setting us on a course toward inevitable and out-of-control inflation.

Those worries about the Fed, the dollar, the U.S. and the future in general have played no tiny part in lifting investor interest in precious metals. You don’t have to be a commodities trader to know that gold and silver have been very good performers in recent years. Start with silver. Even after the decline from last year’s trip to near $50 an ounce, if you’ve owned the metal for around two years you’ve almost doubled your money. As of now, it’s about $32. Gold is off a couple hundred dollars from it’s high near $1,900 an ounce a few months ago, but it still has had an outstanding run. In the last two years you’re up about $500 and over five years by roughly $1,000.

Supporters of physical metals as legitimate currencies like to view themselves as practical. Detractors like to mock them as helmet-wearing cave dwellers. But we’re getting to the point where the dollar’s fate, as well as that of the metals, isn’t simply an academic exercise. See Utah, where Gov. Gary Herbert recently signed legislation liberalizing the use of gold and silver as currencies. When you’re talking about metals as legal tender in one of the lower 48, that’s saying something about the times in which we live.

And Utah’s not alone, potentially. CNNMoney noted a couple of months ago that more than a dozen states have lawmakers in office who are at least exploring options to the dollar. On the federal level, long-serving U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, who, yes, is still seeking the GOP nomination for president and whose image made an appearance on a silver coin a few years ago, has been one of the nation’s most visible proponents of dollar alternatives for years.

So is Utah the start of a trend? We can’t say that for sure yet, but the issue isn’t going away. Of course, neither is the Fed, and neither is the debate.

Source

“As natural gas prices continue to collapse (nearing $1.9), we are starting to hear more talk about production cuts.

Natural gas nearby futures contract price

But the market remains skeptical.

WP: “Companies can talk all they want about reducing production, but until we start seeing a difference, prices are going to fall,” independent analyst and trader Stephen Schork said.

Part of this skepticism is driven by the inventory levels which are still extremely high relative to historical ranges.

With massive amounts of new gas coming out of the Marcellus formation, are companies actually trying to cut production? The chart below shows that production, though still at historically record levels, has indeed leveled off.

EIA: After a long period of steady growth, U.S. daily dry gas production growth leveled off during the first three months of 2012, averaging 63.8 Bcfd through March 31, a level almost 9% above the same period in 2011.

But in order for gas prices to stabilize, the market is looking for production to start declining materially. In anenvironment where production quotas are not permitted by law (the way that OPEC does with crude production), each firm would need to cut output on its own in order to stem the flow of gas. It’s a tough decision because the lower the price the more companies want to pump to generate their target revenue – until of course the margins are no longer there and sales begin to generate losses.”

“That appears to be a big question on traders’ minds since late February when oil futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange neared $110, which has so far marked the peak for the year.

And despite ongoing Middle East threats to global supplies and a complicated background comprised of market manipulation talk, government oversight proposals and pipeline changes and expansions, many analysts don’t believe prices are where they should be — simply because there’s too much oil in the market.

“The economic price for (West Texas Intermediate) oil is in the $80-$85 range,” said Mickey Cargile, managing partner at Cargile Investments, basing his estimate on where he sees supplies locally and in Cushing, Okla., the delivery hub for Nymex oil.

“Our range valuation suggests a 15%-20% risk premium priced for potential supply disruption from Iran,” he said.

On Thursday, crude futures CLK2 +1.80% settled at $102.27 a barrel. It’s up 3% year to date, but down nearly 7% from a peak close of $109.77 on Feb. 24, according to data from FactSet Research.

“If it were not for some of the Iranian oil off the market because of sanctions and the fear of supply interruptions, the price could be lower,” said James Williams, an energy economist at WTRG Economics….”

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WTI is up $0.57 @ $102.84

Brent is up $0.91 @ $118.91

“Copper traders are bullish for the first time in six weeks on mounting confidence that demand will accelerate in line with economies at a time when mining companies are already failing to keep up with consumption.

Eleven of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the metal to climb next week and 10 were neutral. Rio Tinto Group (RIO), based in London, said April 17 that its first-quarter copper output slid 18 percent because the ore mined contained less metal. Codelco, the largest copper producer, said the following day that it sees no weakening in Chinese buying. Barclays Capital is predicting a third consecutive year of shortages…”

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WTI is up $0.13@ $102.70

A lot of hate for this executive order on the blogosphere. Some saying it is support for agenda 21 to converting America into a Communist country…lol

One interesting note is that it may result in the closing of refineries on the east coast causing eventual prices hikes. Any thoughts ?

Executive order

FORTUNE — Daniel Yergin, author of the new bestseller The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World, is one of the planet’s foremost thinkers about energy and its implications. He received a Pulitzer Prize for his previous book, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. Yergin is chairman and founder of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, is on the U.S. Secretary of Energy advisory board, and chaired the U.S. Department of Energy’s Task Force on Strategic Energy Research and Development. He talked recently with Brian Dumaine about the role natural gas will play in America’s energy future.

Fracking technology has given the U.S. a 100-year supply of cheap natural gas. What’s its impact on coal, nuclear, wind, and solar power?

Inexpensive natural gas is transforming the competitive economics of electric power generation in the U.S. Coal plants today generate more than 40% of our electricity. Yet coal plant construction is grinding to a halt: first, because of environmental reasons and second, because the economics of natural gas are so compelling. It is being championed by many environmentalists as a good substitute for coal because it is cleaner and emits about 50% less carbon dioxide.

Nuclear power now generates 20% of our electricity, but the plants are getting old and will need to be replaced. What will replace them?

Only a few nuclear plants are being built in the U.S. right now. The economics of building nuclear are challenging — it’s much more expensive than natural gas.

Isn’t the worry now that cheap natural gas might also crowd out wind and solar?

Yes. The debate is over whether natural gas is a bridge fuel to buy time while renewables develop or whether it will itself be a permanent, major source of electricity.

What do you think?

Over the past year the debate has moved beyond the idea of gas as a bridge fuel to what gas means to U.S. manufacturing and job creation and how it will make the U.S. more globally competitive as an energy exporter. The President’s State of the Union speech was remarkable in the way it wrapped the shale gas boom into his economic policies and job creation.

I believe natural gas in the years ahead is going to be the default fuel for new electrical generation. Power demand is going to go up 15% to 20% in the U.S. over this decade because of the increasing electrification of our society — everything from iPads to electric Nissan Leafs. Utilities will need a predictable source of fuel in volume to meet that demand, and natural gas best fits that description.

And that won’t make the environmental community happy?

Well, natural gas may be a relatively clean hydrocarbon, but it’s still a hydrocarbon.

So wind and solar will have a hard time competing?

Remember that wind and solar account for only 3% of our electric power, whereas natural gas is 23%, and its share will go up fast. Most of that 3% is wind. Natural gas has a new role as the partner of renewables, providing power when the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining.