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Commentary

Upgrades and Downgrades This Morning

Wed Dec 14, 2011 8:44am EST Comments Off on Upgrades and Downgrades This Morning

Company	Date	Analyst	Action	To
CARRIZO OIL&GAS (CRZO)	12/13/2011	Robert W. Baird	Initiated	Outperform
ANADARKO PETROL (APC)	12/13/2011	Robert W. Baird	Initiated	Neutral
CHESAPEAKE ENGY (CHK)	12/13/2011	Robert W. Baird	Initiated	Outperform
PIONEER NAT RES (PXD)	12/13/2011	Robert W. Baird	Initiated	Outperform
SWIFT ENERGY CO (SFY)	12/13/2011	Robert W. Baird	Initiated	Outperform
EXCO RESOURCES (XCO)	12/13/2011	Robert W. Baird	Initiated	Outperform
FOREST OIL CORP (FST)	12/13/2011	Robert W. Baird	Initiated	Outperform
DOLLAR TREE INC (DLTR)	12/13/2011	FBR Capital	Initiated	Mkt Perform
TJX COS INC NEW (TJX)	12/13/2011	FBR Capital	Initiated	Outperform
ROSS STORES (ROST)	12/13/2011	FBR Capital	Initiated	Outperform
DOLLAR GENERAL (DG)	12/13/2011	FBR Capital	Initiated	Outperform
SPIRIT AEROSYS (SPR)	12/13/2011	KeyBanc Capital Mkts	Initiated	Buy

Company	Date	Analyst	Action	From	To
MURPHY OIL (MUR)	12/13/2011	Deutsche Bank	Upgraded	Hold	Buy
HESS CORP (HES)	12/13/2011	Deutsche Bank	Upgraded	Hold	Buy
MARATHON OIL CP (MRO)	12/13/2011	Deutsche Bank	Upgraded	Hold	Buy
VANGUARD NATURL (VNR)	12/13/2011	Barclays Capital	Reiterated		Overweight
DEVRY INC (DV)	12/13/2011	Barclays Capital	Reiterated		Equal Weight
SOUTHERN COPPER (SCCO)	12/13/2011	Barclays Capital	Downgraded	Equal Weight	Underweight
SENSATA TECHNOL (ST)	12/13/2011	Barclays Capital	Downgraded	Overweight	Equal Weight
ENDURO ROYLT TR (NDRO)	12/13/2011	Barclays Capital	Initiated		Overweight
GEO GRP INC/THE (GEO)	12/13/2011	Barclays Capital	Downgraded	Overweight	Equal Weight
CORRECTIONS CRP (CXW)	12/13/2011	Barclays Capital	Upgraded	Equal Weight	Overweight
SYNOVIS LIF TEC (SYNO)	12/13/2011	Feltl & Co.	Downgraded	Buy	Hold
HILL INTL INC (HIL)	12/13/2011	Boenning & Scattergood	Initiated		Outperform
REALD INC (RLD)	12/13/2011	Barrington Research	Downgraded	Outperform	Mkt Perform
SOUTHN COMPANY (SO)	12/13/2011	Argus	Downgraded	Buy	Hold
ETHAN ALLEN INT (ETH)	12/13/2011	Argus	Initiated		Hold
THOMPSON CREEK (TC)	12/13/2011	Stifel Nicolaus	Reiterated		Buy
LIQUIDITY SVCS (LQDT)	12/13/2011	Oppenheimer	Reiterated		Outperform
KRATOS DEFENSE (KTOS)	12/13/2011	Oppenheimer	Initiated		Perform
MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT)	12/13/2011	Ticonderoga	Reiterated		Buy
RUBICON TECHNOL (RBCN)	12/13/2011	Ticonderoga	Upgraded	Sell	Neutral
FINANCIAL ENGIN (FNGN)	12/13/2011	Needham	Resumed		Buy
ADTRAN INC (ADTN)	12/13/2011	Mizuho	Downgraded	Buy	Neutral
COMSTOCK RESOUR (CRK)	12/13/2011	Robert W. Baird	Initiated		Neutral
ROSETTA RESRCS (ROSE)	12/13/2011	Robert W. Baird	Initiated		Neutral
GOODRICH PETROL (GDP)	12/13/2011	Robert W. Baird	Initiated		Neutral
OASIS PETROLEUM (OAS)	12/13/2011	Robert W. Baird	Initiated		Outperform
SM ENERGY CO (SM)	12/13/2011	Robert W. Baird	Initiated		Neutral
APACHE CORP (APA)	12/13/2011	Robert W. Baird	Initiated		Outperform
NOBLE ENERGY (NBL)	12/13/2011	Robert W. Baird	Initiated		Neutral
CABOT OIL & GAS (COG)	12/13/2011	Robert W. Baird	Initiated		Neutral

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In Play and On the Wires

Wed Dec 14, 2011 8:44am EST Comments Off on In Play and On the Wires

In Play

On the Wires

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Does Bernanke’s Worry Translate Into Dovish Behavior ?

Wed Dec 14, 2011 8:25am EST Comments Off on Does Bernanke’s Worry Translate Into Dovish Behavior ?

Hopium is rising

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Have We Entered the “Downstroke of a Super Business Cycle ” ?

Tue Dec 13, 2011 8:42pm EST Comments Off on Have We Entered the “Downstroke of a Super Business Cycle ” ?

Interesting read for all its assumptions and accusations…

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A Comparison of Today’s FOMC Statement vs the November Statement

Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:50pm EST Comments Off on A Comparison of Today’s FOMC Statement vs the November Statement

It’s all about the language…and what is between the lines.

Full article

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Can Markets Ignore Two Sets of Accounting Books ?

Tue Dec 13, 2011 10:21am EST Comments Off on Can Markets Ignore Two Sets of Accounting Books ?

An interesting piece on the markets not be able to avoid downside in the end despite central bank and political manipulation.

Full article

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Escape From Recession: Can We Dot it ?

Tue Dec 13, 2011 10:16am EST 3

Some say no way….

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Trader Announcement: Divergence in VIX and Euro Swap Spreads Continues

Tue Dec 13, 2011 10:08am EST Comments Off on Trader Announcement: Divergence in VIX and Euro Swap Spreads Continues

This may spell a decoupling of U.S. markets and Euro financial turmoil….

Full article

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Oil Prices Remain High Despite Inventory Levels and Consumption

Tue Dec 13, 2011 10:00am EST Comments Off on Oil Prices Remain High Despite Inventory Levels and Consumption

A head fake or real ? The CRB index is topping out and would suggest prices retreat until clear growth and consumption increase are to be had. I’ll take my chances in ERY.

The only problem that is foreseeable is a war with Iran. I pray this will not happen…and not because I’m short.

Full article

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Zulauf: Periphery Countries in Europe That Have Been in Extended Recession Will Enter Depression and Break Up the Euro

Tue Dec 13, 2011 9:44am EST Comments Off on Zulauf: Periphery Countries in Europe That Have Been in Extended Recession Will Enter Depression and Break Up the Euro

“I think the periphery goes into depression. When you look at a country like Greece, it’s now been in recession for three years. GDP is probably down 15 percent from the top. The stock market is down 90 percent, which is the equivalent of 1929 to 1932 in the U.S. This is depression-like,” Zulauf tells King World News, as reported by Business Insider.

“I expect next year one country, probably three, will exit the euro. That will make 2012 very interesting because there are no rules on how to exit the euro.”

Full article

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Whitney Tilson Gets Bullish on Bank Stocks

Tue Dec 13, 2011 9:38am EST 2

“We think the U.S. financial sector sort of went through its valley of death and has dramatically stronger balance sheets today, much lower levels of leverage,”

Full article

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Financial Stocks are in a Bear Market: Harbinger to Come ?

Tue Dec 13, 2011 9:33am EST Comments Off on Financial Stocks are in a Bear Market: Harbinger to Come ?

Can markets march forward without financials ?

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JPM Expects Alpha Will Be Hard To Find for Hedge Funds Over the Next Ten Years

Tue Dec 13, 2011 9:22am EST Comments Off on JPM Expects Alpha Will Be Hard To Find for Hedge Funds Over the Next Ten Years

A recent study by JPM says the averaged annualized returns for the next 10 years will only be 8-8.25% and 8.75% for midcaps.

Full article

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Upgrades and Downgrades This Morning

Tue Dec 13, 2011 8:38am EST Comments Off on Upgrades and Downgrades This Morning

Source

Company	Date	Analyst	Action	From	To
LENNAR CORP -A (LEN)	12/12/2011	KeyBanc Capital Mkts	Downgraded	Buy	Hold
GENOMIC HEALTH (GHDX)	12/12/2011	Ladenburg Thalmann	Reiterated		Buy
TOLL BROTHERS (TOL)	12/12/2011	KeyBanc Capital Mkts	Downgraded	Buy	Hold
PINNACLE AIRLNS (PNCL)	12/12/2011	Dahlman Rose	Downgraded	Hold	Sell
TESORO LOGISTIC (TLLP)	12/12/2011	Oppenheimer	Reiterated		Outperform
TEMPUR-PEDIC (TPX)	12/12/2011	Oppenheimer	Upgraded	Perform	Outperform
ZUMIEZ INC (ZUMZ)	12/12/2011	Janney Mntgmy Scott	Reiterated		Neutral
HALLADOR ENERGY (HNRG)	12/12/2011	Dahlman Rose	Initiated		Hold

Company	Date	Analyst	Action	From	To
INTEL CORP (INTC)	12/12/2011	Needham	Downgraded	Buy	Hold
INTEL CORP (INTC)	12/12/2011	FBR Capital	Reiterated		Mkt Perform
WAL-MART STORES (WMT)	12/12/2011	Barclays Capital	Reiterated		Overweight
V F CORP (VFC)	12/12/2011	Barclays Capital	Reiterated		Overweight
TESORO LOGISTIC (TLLP)	12/12/2011	Barclays Capital	Reiterated		Overweight
SMITHFIELD FOOD (SFD)	12/12/2011	Barclays Capital	Reiterated		Equal Weight
ROWAN COS INC (RDC)	12/12/2011	Barclays Capital	Reiterated		Overweight
PALL CORP (PLL)	12/12/2011	Barclays Capital	Reiterated		Equal Weight
MACYS INC (M)	12/12/2011	Barclays Capital	Reiterated		Overweight
LIZ CLAIBORNE (LIZ)	12/12/2011	Barclays Capital	Reiterated		Equal Weight
COLUMBIA SPORTS (COLM)	12/12/2011	Barclays Capital	Reiterated		Overweight
CAREER EDU CORP (CECO)	12/12/2011	Barclays Capital	Reiterated		Equal Weight
ALLIANCE DATA (ADS)	12/12/2011	Barclays Capital	Reiterated		Overweight
TORCHMARK CORP (TMK)	12/12/2011	Barclays Capital	Initiated		Overweight
SYMETRA FINL CP (SYA)	12/12/2011	Barclays Capital	Initiated		Equal Weight
REINSURANCE GRP (RGA)	12/12/2011	Barclays Capital	Initiated		Overweight
PROTECTIVE LIFE (PL)	12/12/2011	Barclays Capital	Initiated		Equal Weight
DELPHI FINL GRP (DFG)	12/12/2011	Barclays Capital	Initiated		Underweight
JOHNSON & JOHNS (JNJ)	12/12/2011	UBS	Reiterated		Buy
BUCKEYE TECH (BKI)	12/12/2011	UBS	Reiterated		Buy
RAYTHEON CO (RTN)	12/12/2011	Standpoint Research	Initiated		Buy
ROSETTA RESRCS (ROSE)	12/12/2011	Howard Weil	Reiterated		Market Perform
LINCOLN NATL-IN (LNC)	12/12/2011	RBC Capital Mkts	Reiterated		Sector Perform
CREXUS INVESTMT (CXS)	12/12/2011	RBC Capital Mkts	Reiterated		Outperform
FMC CORP (FMC)	12/12/2011	Longbow	Reiterated		Buy
TRANSOCEAN LTD (RIG)	12/12/2011	Howard Weil	Upgraded	Market Perform	Market Outperform
TIVO INC (TIVO)	12/12/2011	Caris & Company	Upgraded	Average	Above Average
EDWARDS LIFESCI (EW)	12/12/2011	Canaccord Genuity	Upgraded	Hold	Buy
GOLDEN MINERALS (AUMN)	12/12/2011	Rodman & Renshaw	Initiated		Mkt Outperform
NIKE INC-B (NKE)	12/12/2011	Stifel Nicolaus	Reiterated		Buy

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In Play and On the Wires

Tue Dec 13, 2011 8:38am EST Comments Off on In Play and On the Wires

In Play

On the Wires

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Gapping Up and Down This Morning

Tue Dec 13, 2011 8:38am EST 2

Gapping up

ALXA +66.4%, YMI +39.7%, CHK +2.0%, AVNR +6.1%, NFLX +4.2%, MTGE +4%, ANN +4%, CAS +5%, NEOP +2.9%, MT +2.3%,

CCMP +16.9%, FCX +2.2%, RPRX +17.4%, NOK +2%, YMI +39.7% , GS +0.7%, C +-0.8%, AVNR +6.1%, DD +1.6%,

BP +1.4%, BAC +1.1%, TOT+0.2%, EXK +2.1%, AA +1%, ROYL +6.0%, SNV +7.4%, LYG +2%, MS +1.4%, URBN +9.6%

Gapping down

MWE -3.2%, DMND -2.9%, FCEL -5.5%, ST -2.3%, MILL -1.5%, PSE -5.1%,

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Jim Reid of Deustche Bank Expects 2012 to Be Just Like 2011

Tue Dec 13, 2011 8:17am EST Comments Off on Jim Reid of Deustche Bank Expects 2012 to Be Just Like 2011

More market fun for day traders.

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Talk Show Host, Savage, Offers Newt $1 Million to Drop Out

Mon Dec 12, 2011 4:58pm EST Comments Off on Talk Show Host, Savage, Offers Newt $1 Million to Drop Out

He has 72 hours.

Full article

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MICHAEL SAVAGE OFFERS NEWT GINGRICH $1 MILLION TO DROP OUT OF PRESIDENTIAL RACE

Mon Dec 12, 2011 4:56pm EST 15

(From Savage’s web site)

_____________________

SAVAGE OFFERS GINGRICH $1 MILLION TO DROP OUT OF THE RACE — WILL ANNOUNCE ON SHOW TODAY

(SUBJECT TO ALL THE TERMS AND CONDITIONS TO BE EXPRESSLY STATED BY DR. SAVAGE, INCLUDING GINGRICH DROPPING OUT WITHIN 72 HOURS OF TODAY)

THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL FIELD HAS COME DOWN TO TWO CANDIDATES WHO HAVE A REAL CHANCE OF GETTING THE NOMINATION: NEWT GINGRICH AND MITT ROMNEY. WHILE IT’S TRUE THAT ROMNEY IS NOT AS STRONG A CONSERVATIVE AS MANY WOULD LIKE HIM TO BE, THE MOST PRESSING ISSUE BEFORE AMERICA TODAY IS DEFEATING BARACK OBAMA. AND THAT IS SOMETHING NEWT GINGRICH CANNOT DO. FOR WEEKS ON MY SHOW, I HAVE ENUMERATED THE REASONS WHY GINGRICH CANNOT SUCCEED IN AN ELECTION AGAINST OBAMA:

· WHEN HE WAS SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE, GINGRICH FAILED TO DELIVER ON HIS SO-CALLED CONTRACT WITH AMERICA.

· HE MADE ADS WITH NANCY PELOSI PROMOTING THE FALSE THEORY OF GLOBAL WARMING.

· HE’S IN FAVOR OF AMNESTY FOR ILLEGAL ALIENS.

· HE’S TAKEN HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS FROM FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC, TWO OF THE MOST CORRUPT FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN HISTORY.

· HE’S CHEATED ON TWO WIVES AND LEFT BOTH OF THEM WHILE THEY WERE BOTH SERIOUSLY ILL, WHICH WILL DESTROY HIS CHANCES AMONG FEMALE VOTERS.

· HE CALLED THE REPUBLICAN PLAN TO REFORM MEDICARE “RIGHT WING SOCIAL ENGINEERING.”

· IN A PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE AGAINST OBAMA, REGARDLESS OF HOW WELL HE DOES, ON TELEVISION, HE WILL COME OFF BADLY COMPARED TO OBAMA AND LOOK LIKE NOTHING MORE THAN WHAT HE IS: A FAT, OLD, WHITE MAN.

NEWT GINRICH IS UNELECTABLE. MITT ROMNEY IS THE ONLY CANDIDATE WITH A CHANCE OF DEFEATING BARACK OBAMA, AND THERE IS NOTHING MORE IMPORTANT THAN THAT FOR FUTURE HEALTH, SAFETY, AND SECURITY OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. THEREFORE, I AM OFFERING NEWT GINGRICH ONE MILLION DOLLARS TO DROP OUT OF THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE FOR THE SAKE OF THE NATION.

IF NEWT GINGRICH REALLY LOVES THIS COUNTRY AS MUCH AS HE SAYS HE DOES, IF HE REALLY WANTS WHAT IS BEST FOR AMERICA, HE WILL SET HIS EGO ASIDE, CALL ME, AND ACCEPT MY OFFER. HIS CONTINUED CANDIDACY SPELLS NOTHING BUT RUIN FOR CONSERVATIVES, REPUBLICANS, AND ALL TRUE AMERICAN PATRIOTS. ONE MILLION DOLLARS IN EXCHANGE FOR PRESERVING THE NATION, NEWT. I SAY TAKE THE MONEY… AND DON’T RUN.

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