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Martin Feldstein Says Not To Expect More Rosy GDP Prints Such as What Was Had Today

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The U.S. economy grew 3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, faster than expected although don’t expect such pleasant surprises to continue in 2012, says Harvard economist Martin Feldstein.

“My personal view is that we’re not going to see the kind of 3 percent GDP growth that some people are calling for. I think we’ll be lucky if we have 2 percent,” Feldstein tells CNBC.

“There are strong headwinds. It’s going to be hard to maintain exports,” said Feldstein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Ronald Reagan.

“Consumption got boosted last year because people cut their saving rate sharply. I don’t think that’s going to happen again. We’ve got higher oil prices, so it’s going to be a tough year.”

The country should consider itself lucky if it breaks 2 percent growth in 2012.

“Being under 2 percent, which is where we were last year, I think is more likely then higher rates,” Feldstein says.

The Federal Reserve has said that interest rates will likely stay low through 2014, which suggests the economy will not come roaring back anytime soon.

Unemployment rates currently stand at 8.3 percent, figures that Feldstein and many others say don’t reflect the true weakness of the labor market in that those who give up searching for jobs are not factored into that number.

Students graduating from school who put off looking for work aren’t counted either.

“The unemployment rate has come down by more than a full percentage point. But about half of that is because people have stopped looking for work or haven’t even started looking for work,” Feldstein says.

“So we haven’t seen the improvements in the labor market that the unemployment rate suggests.”

The one bright spot is that a weak economy means inflation rates will remain under control.

“I don’t see any short-term inflation problems. By short-term, I mean this year, next year. It’s hard to believe that in this economy, we’re going to see significant inflation problems.”

Some point out that the economy is likely stuck in a depression, which is marked by recessions followed by periods of weak growth that dip back into recession again.

Credit booms and busts as well as extended periods of deleveraging mark depressions.

A typical recession not associated with depression is normally marked by a short contraction and then a pronounced rebound.

Corrections in the business cycle tend to mark these garden-variety recessions.

“The Great Depression featured a double-dip of its own. Within the start and end dates of the Great Depression, there were two recessions, 1929 to 1933, and 1937 to 1938,” James Rickards, a hedge fund manager and the author of “Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis,” writes in a U.S. News & World Report column.

“Recessions inside a depression are completely different phenomena than typical business and credit cycle recessions. They are the result of behavioral shifts in a larger wave of deflation and deleveraging,” Rickards says.

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Time to Add the VIX to Your Equity Portfolio?

Author: Prieur du Plessis  ·  February 29th, 2012  ·

The interim solving of the debt crisis in Greece has restored calm in the markets, with the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) settling at 17.3 compared to its long-term average of 20.0. The big question now is whether the VIX will return to the low levels of 1991-1996 and 2004-2006.

To read the rest of the analysis and see some great charts, go here.

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Why the ‘Risk-on’ Rally Will Not Last

By Richard Bernstein

The recent rally in global markets has been led by what most investors are now calling “risk-on” assets. Their counterparts, risk-off assets, have lagged. We question the longevity of this risk-on trade. Indeed, we believe that the secular investment theme remains risk-off.

Investors use the hackneyed term risk-on to refer to assets that have tended to outperform when investors are bullish. Commodities, real estate and emerging markets would be prime examples. Risk-off assets are perceived haven assets such as US Treasuries, German Bunds, the US dollar and even US stocks.

Yet few investors seem to understand the implied economic forecasts of the risk-on/risk-off trades. Our research shows that risk-on assets’ outperformance during the 2000s was directly related to the inflation of the global credit bubble. The most popular investments during the decade were all credit-related investments. When one buys risk-on assets, therefore, one assumes that the deflation of the global credit bubble will subside and that credit will again expand. The implied forecast of a risk-off trade is the exact opposite, ie, that the credit bubble will continue to deflate.

During 2009-10, it was widely thought that the deflating credit bubble was solely a US problem, and that economies in the remainder of the world were still healthy. Consensus at the time was that the US was de-basing the dollar, and the euro would soon be an alternative reserve currency. In 2011, investors fully realised that there were credit problems in Europe too, and talk of the euro becoming a reserve currency ended.

Despite 2011’s dismal emerging markets equity performance, investors continue to believe that the emerging markets are largely immune to the developed world’s credit hangover. But cycles often begin in the US, travel to Europe and then end up in the emerging markets. This cycle will likely follow that historical precedent. The emerging markets’ difficult tugs-of-war between inflation and growth indicate that the emerging markets, rather than decoupling from the developed world, were perhaps the biggest beneficiaries of the global credit bubble.

If risk-on assets are credit-related assets, then it follows they should outperform when credit is expected to expand, and underperform when credit is expected to contract. Accordingly, we expect risk-on assets’ outperformance to be periodic when policymakers attempt to reinflate the global credit bubble. Risk-on assets outperformed subsequent to the Federal Reserve’s attempts to stymie US financial sector consolidation, and they have been outperforming more recently as the European Central Bank made moves to thwart European bank consolidation.

The question is whether policymakers can fully alleviate the effects of a deflating global credit bubble. Longer-term investors should be sceptical.

Read the rest here.

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The Bears Take the Market Down a Smidgen

The bears took the market down in a unconvincing manner after a rally this morning. The NASDAQ made a brief rise above 3000; territory not seen since December of 2000. Gold got ha-hammered homo style for $93 sticks or 5.26%. Oil managed to pare losses and gain about $0.41 to close at $106.98. The dollar rallied $0.53 on Bernanke’s comments to $78.81…

DOW down 53.66

S&P down 6.50

NASDAQ down 19.87

 [youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTPqPZzH-LA 450 300]

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Flash: Ted Turner is a Basket Case

via hollywoodreporter.com

Issue 9 Ted Turner Cover - P 2012
Ted Turner

The “Mouth of the South” is no longer as he devotes his time (and $1 billion) to the U.N., jets between 28 homes and four girlfriends, misses Jane Fonda and opens up to THR about Rupert, Jerry and his abuse as a child. Says a friend: “He’s definitely changed.”

“Isn’t that the thinnest billionaire’s wallet you ever saw?” Ted Turner gloats on a drizzling day in New York. “I’m really proud of it.”

He holds out the wallet, a slender, black, rather unpretentious affair, as this reporter cranes for a closer look, neglecting to mention I’ve never seen a billionaire’s wallet before. It contains Turner’s driver’s license, two credit cards, lists of his appointments for the next couple of days (he doesn’t use e-mail), a few phone numbers and about $1,000 in cash — though what on earth for, he doesn’t say, since he never shops.

The tycoon-turned-philanthropist has removed the wallet from his blazer to show me a printed card with his “11 Voluntary Initiatives,” an oddly naive reinvention of the Ten Commandments that he concocted some 15 years ago, including such vows as “I promise to care for Planet Earth and all living things thereon, especially my fellow beings.”

PHOTOS: Ted Turner’s Life and Loves in Photos

He leans forward, adamant about reading each one. “Listen, these are important,” he insists. “I worked on them for a long time.”

It’s a rare burst of energy from this man who once epitomized it. At age 73, there’s almost no trace of the frenetic, hyper-kinetic mogul once known as the “Mouth of the South” and “Captain Outrageous.” His antics (from keeping a pet alligator as a student to almost losing his life in a 1968 sailing race) and innovative empire-building (turning a tiny TV station into a nation-spanning “superstation” and launching the first global TV news network, CNN) have made him the stuff of legend, putting his present absence from the media scene in stark relief.

Without him, we wouldn’t have an all-cartoon channel or an all-movie channel — maybe not even cable television itself, with all its glorious target programming, its 24-hour sports, passionate punditry and unreal reality.

“He’s a genius,” says former CNN president Tom Johnson. “He was exceptionally important in the media landscape. We shall not look upon Ted Turner’s kind again.”

Even his onetime friend, former Time Warner chief Gerald Levin, who ousted him in a putsch that severed their relationship, acknowledges: “Some people have transcendent notions about changing the world. Ted believed, in his unstoppable fashion, that he could — and did. He was and is maddeningly gifted with a spark of genius.”

PHOTOS: 9 Highest Paid Entertainment CEOs

Many pundits expected that spark would help him outlast his older rivals (Viacom and CBS Corp. chairman Sumner Redstone, 88, and News Corp. CEO Rupert Murdoch, 80) at the summit of the media. But unlike them, he has moved on, giving up the executive life to “save the world,” as he puts it, an endeavor that began with his unprecedented $1 billion gift in support of the United Nations in 1997. This, along with other philanthropies he’s launched, has been his mandate for much of the past decade — more than a mandate, a mission. That he made the best choice for the world seems certain; whether he made the best choice for himself is less clear.

“He really misses it a lot,” says his daughter, Laura Turner Seydel, 50, chairman of the board of the Captain Planet Foundation, referring to his role at Time Warner. “It was his baby. I think he’d still be there if he’d not totally gotten screwed.”

♦♦♦♦♦

Turner goes to bed right after dinner most nights, switching
off the light around 9, following an hour of reading.

This onetime social gadfly, who hobnobbed with President Carter and 
Soviet chief Mikhail Gorbachev (whom he still cites as his hero), has a relatively quiet social life. “I have several good friends but not one [in particular],” he says. “I never think about who are my best friends; they’re all my best friends. I confide on certain things with my family, my close girlfriends, Phil [Phillip Evans, vp and chief communications officer of Turner Enterprises]. I have good relationships with a lot of people. In fact, I don’t have very many enemies, [though] I’ve lost a lot of good friends who passed away.”

Turner doesn’t pay attention to TV anymore, other than CNN. “I don’t watch entertainment,” he says. As for CNN’s sister network, HLN, “the News and Views Network” featuring Nancy Grace: “I haven’t watched in years. I want to see serious news.”

Box Office Politics: The Movies and Stars Dems vs. GOPers Love (and Love to Hate)

Instead, he spends an average of an hour and a half each day reading nonfiction — The Economistfrom cover to cover, The New York Times and Wall Street Journal whenever he can, along with substantive tomes including environmentalist Lester R. Brown’s World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Collapse and Catherine Crier’s Patriot Acts: What Americans Must Do to Save the Republic.

As one might expect from this, he’s hardly devoid of political opinion: “I like Obama. I don’t know who could do a better job. He’s got an incredibly tough situation, and a good heart and mind. I’d like to see him rally support a little better. He’s alienated a lot of people — not deliberately or anything.” By contrast, “Certainly the Tea Party people are mean-spirited. It’s so heartbreaking to have [them] say that global warming is a hoax.”

After reading, Turner retires. In addition to taking medication for an irregular heartbeat, in mid-2011 he learned he had sleep apnea, a disorder involving abnormal interruptions in breathing. “I’ve had it for years, a rare form; I’m using the [positive airway pressure, or PAP] machine at night, and that’s helped some,” he says.

He wakes around 4 a.m., “takes several pills, like most of us,” then gets up at 6 and does a light workout. He drives a Prius and adds, “I haven’t been in a store to buy anything for five years” — even clothes.

He says all this with little of the flamboyance that was once his mark. His depleted energy troubles some of the 300 former staffers and executives who remain intensely loyal and who reunited with him for a cocktail reception at Atlanta’s Hilton in November. Several acknowledge the man they found was quite different from the human tornado of the past. “I don’t know if it’s because of what happened at Time Warner or if it’s just getting older,” says one. “But he’s definitely changed.”

READ THE REST HERE

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Nine Reasons To Be Bullish on Stocks

Source

(MoneyWatch)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 13,000 for the first time since May 2008and the broader S&P 500 has gained a remarkable 15 percent in just three months. Of course stocks never move in a straight line, so anytime markets rally sharply and quickly, it’s not a bad idea to brace for a pause or pullback.

 

But to those who fear that stocks are out of touch with economic reality, Tom Sowanick, chief investment officer at OmniVest Group, says that mindset is “simply wrong.”

“The performance of global equities continues to be decried by most market observers as ‘too much too fast,'” Sownanick says in a new note to clients. “Another frequent comment is that equity rally is flawed because fundamentally nothing has changed in the global economy. Europe remains broken, Greece is unresolved and deflation is a bigger risk than inflation.”

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Jeremy Grantham’s investment outlook
High gas prices: Are traders to blame?

Yet the naysayers are ignoring critical economic and technical pillars supporting the case for stocks only gaining steam and momentum, Sowanick says. Here are his nine reasons the market will keep climbing:

1. The Federal Reserve and central banks in China, Europe and Japan are all engaged in either quantitative easing or some other form of monetary stimulus.

2. Economic confidence is on the rise in Europe, as is consumer confidence in the U.S.

3. At 8.3 percent, the U.S. unemployment rate is at its lowest level since February 2009. While the unemployment is still unacceptably high, it is important to recognize that the U.S. has added 2.52 million jobs in the past 16 months.

4. Germany’s 6.7 percent unemployment rate is at its lowest level since the series was started in December 1991.

5. While equity markets have risen sharply since bottoming in the spring of 2009, the rally has been accompanied with an even sharper increase in corporate earnings.

6. Since the start of the year, bullish sentiment has declined from 48.88 to 43.69 while bearish sentiment has increased from 17.16 to 27.51. It is hard to find any hint that exuberance is being priced into the market.

7. Market leadership has been very consistent with the firming of economic data. The market is being led by financials, materials, industrials and technology. Conversely, lagging sectors of the market include utilities, consumer staples and telecommunications.

8. Iran is a problem and so too is the rise in oil and gasoline prices. However, offsetting higher gas prices are extremely low natural gas prices, as well as a very mild winter for much of the U.S.

9. Another factor helping consumers deal with high gas prices is the fact that consumers have been paying off debt for the past three years, Sowanick says.

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Reich: Housing is the Rotting Core of US Recovery

Economist and former U.S. Secretary of Labor Robert Reich says the biggest continuing problem for most Americans is their homes.

“Houses are the major assets of the middle class,” Reich writes in the Financial Times.

“Most Americans are therefore far poorer than they were six years ago. Almost one out of three homeowners with a mortgage is now ‘underwater,’ owing more to the banks than their homes are worth on the market,” writes Reich, now a professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley…”

Read more: 

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U.S. Equity Preview: PANL, TTEC, MYL, LXU, KOG, FSLR, FE, FOE, DWA, COST, & PSS

Source

Collective Brands Inc. (PSS) : The owner of the Payless ShoeSource chain reported a smaller fourth-quarter loss than analysts estimated as new product assortments boosted sales.

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) rallied 1.3 percent to $86.40. The largest U.S. warehouse-club chain posted second- quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates and said revenue growth was maintained in February.

DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (DWA) : The maker of the “Kung Fu Panda” films said fourth-quarter profit tumbled 72 percent as DVD sales declined.

Ferro Corp. (FOE) dropped 5.6 percent to $6.46. The maker of porcelain enamel for cookware and appliances reported an adjusted fourth-quarter loss of 8 cents a share, wider than the estimated loss of 4 cents a share.

FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) : The owner of utilities in Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Jersey said earnings excluding some items will be $3.30 to $3.60 a basic share this year, more than the average analyst estimate of $3.27 in a Bloomberg survey.

First Solar Inc. (FSLR) fell 8.2 percent to $33.40. The world’s largest maker of thin-film solar panels reported a fourth-quarter loss as panel prices dropped and it took charges related to restructuring efforts.

Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp. (KOG) dropped 3.4 percent to $9.97. The Denver-based oil and natural gas explorer with assets in the Williston Basin of North Dakota reported fourth-quarter revenue of $55 million, missing the average analyst estimate of $58.9 million.

LSB Industries Inc. (LXU) : The maker of chemical and climate-control products reported fourth-quarter earnings of $1.19 a share, beating the average analyst estimate of 86 cents.

Mylan Inc. (MYL) (MYL US): The generic-drug company agreed to pay $57 million to settle claims it caused the U.S. and California to overpay for drugs.

TeleTech Holdings Inc. (TTEC) : The provider of customer management support to companies reported fourth-quarter profit of 29 cents a share, excluding some items, missing the average analyst estimate of 39 cents. The company also announced the purchase of marketing analytics firm iKnowtion.

Universal Display Corp. (PANL) : The developer of technologies used in flat-panel displays reported fourth-quarter revenue of $18.7 million, topping the average analyst estimate of $17.9 million.

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Gapping Up and Down This Morning

Gapping up 

VRSK +9.1%, APEI +6.9%, PSS +4.1%, CPRT +2.6%, Y +1.9%, WDC +1.6%, DB +1.2%, IRE +2.8%, IBN +2.1%, DB +1.8%, CS +0.9%, BCS +0.8%, MDW +3.7%,

VRSK +4.3%, SPLS +3.1%, CPRT +2.6%, SDRL +1.8%, COST +1.7%, LIZ +1.1%, FARO +0.4% , PAAS +2.5%, WDC +1.6%,  TOL +1%,  FRC +0.6%,

SVM +1.4%, HL +1.0%, GOLD +0.9%, SLV +0.9%, AU +0.9%, SLW +0.8%, BHP +0.7%,

Gapping down

TTEC -16.1%, FSLR -8.5%, PANL -5.9%, DWA -5.3%, VOCS -5.1%, KOG -5%, EXLP -4.5%, KYN -4.5%, SGY -3%, MWE -3%, NLST -1.3%, SODA -13.7%, CEDC -10.3%,

FSLR -6.6%, PANL -5.9%, FOE -5.6%, DWA -5.3%, KOG -5%, MWE -3%, RLH -2.6%, FE -0.9%, CSTR -1.8%, MRO -0.8%,CNQ -0.6%,  APOL -0.3%,

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Cook: The S&P Should Pullback as “bricks to the wall of worry” pile up

“The S&P 500 is likely to retreat to 1,330 as sluggish domestic growth, high oil prices and Europe’s debt woes take their toll on US stocks, according to Kevin Cook, senior stock strategist at Zacks.com.

Rose | Mueller | Stock4B | Getty Images

“This market is building a wall of worry,” Cook told CNBC recently. “The train has left the station and left a lot of fund managers behind who wish they’d bought. They all want a pullback and that’s why we’re not getting it at the moment. A pullback will be bought even before 1,330 on the S&P.”

In a note, Cook identifies a number of what he calls “bricks for a wall of worry” that could contribute to a retreat of the S&P 500 [.SPX  1372.18  —  UNCH    ] from the current levels, including a slowdown in the economy.

He believes that first quarter US gross domestic product growth could be close to 1 percent, as the 2.8 percent expansion seen in the fourth quarter of last year was largely due to inventory rebuilding.

Cook also says that the index could tilt downwards as earnings and sales forecasts at US companies become flat.

“These and other factors make a good wall for markets to climb near-term,” Cook said. “I’m a buyer of 3-6 percent pullbacks to S&P 1330 and 1300.”

Read more

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Analyst Fear ‘Monetary Anarchy’ As G-8 Nations Take on Enormous Money Printing Stances

“The scale of money printing in the West has become so massive that the world may fall prey to “monetary anarchy,” with traces of bubbles appearing everywhere.

Getty Images

At least that’s what some critics see in the latest round of cash pumping by major central banks.

It is also an eerily reminiscent of 2011, when similarly generous monetary easing sparked higher oil prices, slowed the recovery and stoked speculative hot money flows into vulnerable emerging markets.

The European Central Bank [cnbc explains] alone is expected to lend another half trillion euros or more of super-cheap money to banks on Wednesday, following Japan and Britain which have already injected fresh cash. The Federal Reserve has promised to keep interest rates low until 2014 and act further if needed.

There is a sense of deja-vu in financial markets. Just like the last time a wave of money was pumped into the world financial systems in 2011, crude oil – fuelled also this time by Middle East tensions – has jumped 15 percent this year.

As a result, riskier assets such as equities are already coming off new year highs. Rising emerging market currencies are forcing some central banks there to intervene.

The scale of money creation since the onset of the global credit shock can be seen in the size of central banks’ balance sheet expansion.

JP Morgan says G4 central bank balance sheets have more than doubled since 2007 to 24 percent of combined gross domestic product and will reach 26 percent this year.

“We have Monetary Anarchy running riot, where the elastic band between the real economy and the current liquidity-fuelled markets is stretched further and further beyond credulity,” Bob Janjuah, head of tactical asset allocation at Nomura, noted.

He said bubbles were visible in all asset classes because central bank balance sheets are at the core.

“If/when the current cycle implodes, central banks which have seen explosive balance sheet growth will add to the problems, rather than being able to act as credible lenders of last resort,” he said.

Read more

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WILLEM BUITER: ‘Catastrophe’ In Europe Has Been Avoided, But Fear ‘Will Strike Again’

“Citi’s chief economist Willem Buiter gave a tempered assessment of the effects of the European Central Bank’s two three-year LTROs when he appeared on Bloomberg TV this morning (via @lindayueh).

While he emphasized that the ECB’s liquidity actions were the best course of action to address a credit crunch in the banking system, he argued that Europe will still have to face many hurdles—and indeed, more “near-panics”—in the years ahead:

It has bought time. Without actions of this nature there could have been catastrophe. Catastrophe has been avoided, and the collective sigh of relief can still be heard from here to Frankfurt…

Undoubtedly I think before this crisis is over, there will be other episodes of near-panic and paralysis in the markets which will call for the big battalions of the ECB, or the big bazooka to use a metaphor, to be fired. Only the ECB has the big pockets to keep governments funded and the banks funded when fear strikes, and it will strike again. I mean, other sovereigns will restructure in the euro area in the years to come and there’s no doubt that other holes will be discovered in banks’ balance sheets that will have to be filled in a hurry.

As for the U.S., he predicted that the Federal Reserve will embark on more quantitative easing this year if unemployment or economic activity begins to disappoint as the year progresses. However, he argued that this time the Fed should make QE “credit easing” by expanding the kinds of assets it purchases….”

Watch his full interview 

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Fund Managers: European Banks May Double on ECB Lending Program

“The European Central Bank, which today offered lenders a second round of unlimited loans, will help some bank stocks double this year, say top fund managers who successfully bet on the biggest bank rally since 2009.

Italian lenders such as Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA and Banca Popolare di Milano Scarl will benefit the most from the ECB initiative aimed at helping banks borrow during Europe’s debt crisis, according to Nicolas Walewski, who manages 2 billion euros ($2.7 billion) in European equities at Alken Asset Management LLP. Other top managers from Mandarine Gestion SA and MainFirst Bank AG are betting lenders including BNP Paribas SA (BNP), France’s biggest bank, may rise by as much as 50 percent…”

Read more

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Why There’s Never Been A More Dangerous Time To Invest

Via The Psy-Fi Blog and Abnormal Returns

Facing the Big Guns

Tadas Viskanta, who writes and curates the excellent Abnormal Returns, recently penned an equally excellent article entitled There Has Never Been A Better Time To Be An Individual Investor. In this he cogently sets out a list of reasons why investing is cheaper and easier than ever before while caveating that our innate biases work against us when investing.

While agreeing with every word of the article, I think there’s danger for anyone executing anything other than the suggested default option of a low cost, globally diversified, occasionally rebalanced portfolio. Active private investors are engaged in an arm’s race with the securities industry and most of the big guns are facing the wrong way. The problem is that darned scientific method, which is why there’s also never been a more dangerous time to invest.

Read the rest here.

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10 Tips If You Are Losing Money In This Market

 

Posted by bclund
February 28, 2012

 

There is really no such thing as an “easy” market to make money in, however some types of markets are more conducive to success than others, and right now we are in the middle of one those types of markets.

If you are not making money in the market right now, you need to seriously re-evaluate your trading (and conversely, if you are making money hand over fist right now, you need to make sure it is because of your trading, not because everything is just going up).

So if your trading P/L is currently bleeding red, here are ten tips that might help put it back in the black.

Read the rest here.

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Pimco’s Gross Says to Get Defensive as He Perceives Risk in the Governments Demand for Capital

“NEW YORK (Reuters) – It’s time for defense, says Bill Gross, manager of the world’s largest bond fund.

Gross, manager of PIMCO’s $250 billion Total Return bond fund , used American football as a metaphor for his investment model in his March newsletter. He wrote that he has turned defensive as he watches out for potential downside risks and warns about the government’s increased demand on available capital in the economy.

“Over the past 30 years, an offensively minded Federal Reserveand their global counterparts,” or other central banks, “were printing money, lowering yields and bringing forward a false sense of monetary wealth,” Gross wrote.

“Successful investing in a deleveraging, low interest rate environment will require defensive in addition to offensive skills,” he added.

He pointed out that “low yields, instead of fostering capital gains for investors via the magic of present value discounting and lower credit spreads, begin to reduce household incomes, lower corporate profit margins and wreak havoc on historical business models connected to banking, money market funds and the pension industry.

“The offensively oriented investment world that we have grown so used to over the past three decades is being stonewalled by a zero bound goal line stand,” Gross said. “Investment defense is coming of age.”

For example, these have been hard times for retirees who depend on interest income from their fixed-income investments to pay their bills.

“It is Main Street that has failed to keep up with Wall Street and corporate America in the race to see who can benefit more from lower yields,” Gross wrote. “As the interest component of personal income gradually weakens, the ability of the consumer to keep up its frenetic spending is reduced.”

Read more

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