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Israel’s Spymaster Speaks: Bombing Iran is the Stupid

The following script is from “The Spymaster Speaks” which aired on March 11, 2012. Lesley Stahl is the correspondent. Shachar Bar-On, producer.

When President Obama met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this past week, the subject was how, when and if to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, Netanyahu saying Israel can’t afford to wait much longer; Mr. Obama arguing there’s still time to let sanctions and diplomacy do the job. And he said some top intelligence officials in Israel side with him.

Actually, you’ll hear from one of them tonight: Meir Dagan, former chief of the Mossad, Israel’s equivalent of the CIA. It’s unheard of for someone who held such a high-classified position to speak out publicly, but he told us he felt compelled to talk, because he is so opposed to a preemptive Israeli strike against Iran anytime soon.

Dagan headed the Mossad for nearly a decade until last year. His primary, if not his only mission was to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb. And he says there is time to wait, perhaps as long as three years.

Lesley Stahl: You have said publicly that bombing Iran now is the stupidest idea you’ve ever heard. That’s a direct quote.

Dagan: An attack on Iran before you are exploring all other approaches is not the right way how to do it.

Read the rest here.

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You Missed the Epic Bull Market. You’re Not Alone

By on March 09, 2012

Three years ago this morning, I was on a D.C.-bound train with Jack Bogle, the pioneer investor, who I was profiling for this magazine. The then 79-year-old heart-transplant recipient had been recovering during a long stay in the hospital, where he annoyed his nurses by fuming at everything that had gone wrong with the financial sector and corporate governance. The Dow Jones industrial average was at half its 2007 highs, visiting levels it hadn’t seen since 1996—and 1966 if you accounted for inflation. Yes, 1966(!), when the average house cost $14,200 and gasoline—extra lead, please—went for 32 cents a gallon.

Back to spring 2009: The market seemed to tumble by triple digits every day. With $9 trillion in stock value having evaporated since 2007—family wealth dived the most since the Depression—investor sentiment was beaucoup putrid. Learned helplessness was rampant.

As our Acela stuttered its way into Union Station, Bogle confessed he had a feeling in his bones that was the inverse of what he had felt in the heady spring of 2000. That’s when the market was at such nosebleed, tech-fetish levels that he broke his long-held vow of passivity—”Don’t just do something, sit there!”—and dumped all his stocks for bonds. Now, with stocks pricing in fiery Armageddon, he thought it was time to go headlong into the market, so help him G-d. Hell, he thought, if the system were going down any more than it already had, we’d all be eating cat food anyway. The reward for taking just basic market risk, he argued, hadn’t looked so attractive in years.

Turns out Bogle called a generational low in the market (and to me, dammit, in person! Why, why didn’t I buy, buy?). Since March 9, 2009, the broad U.S. market, as measured by the Wilshire 5000 index, has surged 110 percent, with dividends reinvested. Emerging-market shares have returned 123 percent. The Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization companies has delivered a 146 percent return—snubbing its nose at those who argued that firms which did not have financing autonomy and tons of cash would be doomed. Apple (AAPL), the stock of our times, is up a sadistic 555 percent from where it was on that early spring day. Don’t say Henry Blodget 2.0 didn’t warn you.

Chances are you missed out anyway. History will show that Americans were substantially underinvested during this epic bull run. Equity fund flows have been in the dumps for four years now, a trend that accelerated last summer, when fears of a tzatziki-greased global economic contagion knocked stocks back down. But not for long; they recently hit highs not seen since 2008.

The economy and stock market need not, and often will not, move in lockstep. Three years ago unemployment was at 8.7 percent, vs. 5 percent in December 2007, the month the recession began. Joblessness would go on to spike into the double digits by October 2009. But in the intervening seven months, the Dow Jones gained 30 percent. And even as the economy has since hacked, coughed, and limped through a mostly jobless recovery, the Dow went on to return another 42 percent.

Last autumn, Vanguard, the index fund shop Bogle founded, published research on how a model portfolio divided equally between stocks and bonds fared in economic expansions and recessions since 1926. Its conclusion: “The average real returns of such a portfolio since 1926 have been statistically equivalent regardless of whether the U.S. economy was in or out of recession.”

Don’t just do something, right?

Back to the here and now. For all the bull run’s virility, and despite nine quarters of earnings growth, the U.S. stock market’s valuation remains 14 percent below its five-decade average. Its price-earnings ratio hasn’t been this low while the index was at a 52-week high in 23 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

So if you missed out last time, take heart; you’re not alone. If history and human nature are any indicators, investors will dive back in, and with gusto, only after the market surges way past these levels.

Source

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GE CEO Warns of Long Period of Unstable Economies

General Electric will keep its focus on boosting its dividend and improving margins as it faces what Chief Executive Jeff Immelt expects to be an extended period of economic instability.

“We live in what most business commentators call a volatile world. I would argue that when the environment is continuously unstable, it is no longer volatile. Rather, we have entered a new economic era,” the head of the largest U.S. conglomerate said in his annual letter to shareholders. “It could remain this way for a long time.”

Over the past year shocks including Europe’s debt crisis and Japan’s nuclear disaster, as well as the uneven U.S. economic recovery, have hit both investor confidence and GE’s operations.

In the face of that uncertainty, the world’s largest maker of jet engines and electric turbines aims to cut its costs — and to reverse a trend of outsourcing manufacturing operations in order to run its factories more efficiently.

FOCUS ON DIVIDEND

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Goldman’s Cohen: Investors Flock to Buy Undervalued Shares

Zig when they zag…

“Stocks are undervalued, and investors are coming back in to buy, despite the recent plunge in the Dow, says Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen.

The Dow Industrials Index touched 13,000 for the first time since May 2008 then promptly plunged several hundred points before recovering ground.

Nevertheless, Cohen figures the S&P 500 at its current level has priced in a 7 percent decline in corporate profits in the coming five years, she told CNBC

“That’s possible but it’s not likely,” Cohen said, “but it gives you a sense of how nervous investors have been, and the sort of opportunities in equities if, in fact, the recession is over and profit growth continues.”

Jobs numbers seem to suggest that the sluggish, but steady, recovery will continue. Official numbers are due tomorrow, but the private ADP report says that employers added 216,000 jobs in February, in line with expectations.

A separate Associated Press poll of economists predicts that the government figure will show 210,000 jobs added, but that the unemployment rate will stay at 8.3 percent. They added that the rate would likely fall to 8 percent by Election Day and to 7.4 percent by the end of 2013.

Meanwhile, employers are laying off fewer workers, down 3.3 percent in February from the month before according to consultant Challenger, Gray & Christmas, and reports are surfacing that manufacturers are struggling to find talent, even paying signing bonuses, a huge shift in the market.

A more downbeat assessment comes from Trim Tabs Investment Research. Its figures are based on daily income tax deposits by salaried employees in the United States.

Their call: The U.S. economy added 149,000 jobs in February, down from a January estimate of 181,000.

“To bring down the unemployment rate, the economy needs to generate at least 250,000 new jobs every month,” says Madeline Schnapp, director of macroeconomic research at TrimTabs. “Job growth of 149,000 new jobs is not terrible, but it is also not a result worth celebrating either.”

Source 

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Gapping Up and Down This Morning

Gapping up

CO%, DEXO +8.2%, ZNGA +1%,  SBUX +3.6%, O +5.9%, MCP +3.9%, SBUX +3.6%, SWHC +1.9%, RENN +8.4%, COO +5.9%, HMIN +5.4%, CAAS +4.1%,

NVAX +3.8% , ULTA +0.8%,  AZN +1.2%, NVS +0.8%,

Gapping down

GMCR -16%, GBG -8.4%, BODY -7.7%, GNOM -6%, ARO -3.4%, ARR -3%, FSIN -2.3%, TXN -1%,  FGP -1.4%, GNOM -1%, ING -2.4%, STD -1.8%,

DB -1.3%, CS -1.2%, BCS -0.9%, BP -1.4%, TOT -0.9%, ROYL -0.8%, OXY -0.7%, SNN -1.8% , PLL -1.6%,  E -0.7%,  ACI -1%,

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U.S. Equity Preview: TXN, SWHC, POWR, HEK, GMCR, & BODY

Source

Body Central Corp. (BODY) : The women’s clothing retailer forecast 2012 revenue of $348 million at most, falling short of the average analyst estimate of $355 million in a Bloomberg survey.

Cooper Companies Inc. (COO) : The maker of contact lenses reported first-quarter earnings of $1.12 a share, beating the average analyst estimate of $1.04.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR) plunged 16 percent to $52.62. Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) said it plans to start selling a single-cup coffee system in a bid to expand beyond its partnership with the Waterbury, Vermont-based specialty coffee and coffee maker company. Starbucks increased 3.4 percent to $52.10.

Heckmann Corp. (HEK) : The provider of water treatment and disposal services reported fourth-quarter revenue of $51.7 million, missing the average analyst estimate of $54.5 million. The company also said it will acquire Thermo Fluids Inc. for $245 million in cash and stock.

Molycorp Inc. (MCP) rose 3.9 percent to $27. The owner of the largest rare-earth deposit outside of China agreed to buy Canada’s Neo Material Technologies Inc. (NEM CN) for about C$1.3 billion ($1.3 billion) to increase Chinese sales and gain technology used to make magnets.

PowerSecure International Inc. (POWR) : The provider of lighting and electrical systems reported fourth-quarter revenue of $39.7 million, beating the average analyst estimate of $35.5 million.

Smith & Wesson Holding Corp. (SWHC) increased 8.7 percent to $6.15. The handgun manufacturer reported third- quarter earnings excluding some items of 8 cents a share, beating the average analyst estimate of 4 cents.

Texas Instrument Inc. (TXN) : The world’s largest maker of analog semiconductors reduced its first-quarter sales and profit forecasts, citing lower demand for wireless products.

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Today’s Employment Report Expected to Create Over 200k Jobs

“WASHINGTON (AP) — Employers likely added more than 200,000 jobs for a third straight month in February, adding to evidence that the recovery is building momentum.

Economists forecast that the economy likely generated a net gain of 210,000 jobs, according to FactSet. That’s below January’s 243,000 jobs but still a healthy figure. The unemployment rate, which has fallen for five straight months, is projected to stay 8.3 percent.

If the unemployment rate were to fall for a sixth straight month, it would mark the first such streak since 1984.

It will be hard to match the jobs report for January. The employment gains came from across many industries and up and down the pay scale. Manufacturing, restaurants and hotels, retail, and professional services such as accounting all reported big job gains.

A key reason why the unemployment rate has dropped since last year is that many out-of-work people have stopped looking for work. Only people without jobs who are actively seeking one are counted as unemployed.

A sustained rise in the number of people looking for jobs would be a good sign, even if it pushed up the unemployment rate.

Friday’s report comes as a host of data points to an improving economy and job market. Weekly applications for unemployment benefits have fallen about 14 percent in six months. Though they ticked up last week, average applications remain near a four-year low….”

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The bear case for today’s report

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EX- ECB’s Juergen Agrees With Jeremey Banks in That the ECB’s Balance Sheet “Gigantic”, Collateral Quality “Shocking”

Source

“The German criticism of a mess they themselves have enabled (and benefit from via peripheral current account deficits funded via TARGET2 as shown previously here) at the ECB continues, and following public protests by Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann about recent ECB activity, it is the turn of former ECB executive board member Juergen Stark to take center stage. In an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine, warned that following the massive expansion in the ECB’s balance sheet, in which it is clear to anyone that the ECB will accept used candy bar wrappers as collateral, that “the balance sheet of the euro system, isn’t only gigantic in size but also shocking in quality.”

Of course, with the ECB now the bad banks’ bad bank, this is not at all surprising. Keep in mind that the recent $1.3 trillion balance sheet expansion was supposedly not the equivalent of “printing money” because the ECB made the cash available in the form of a loan in exchange for collateral. The problem is that the ECB accepted literally everything that was not nailed down and proceeded to give 100 cents on the dollar for some unamortized book value associated with it. The end result was the already documented here first encroaching ECB initiated margin calls which may or may not be an added twist in the European liquidity situation. However one thing is certain: the quality of the ECB’s balance sheet has deteriorated massively, as the European central bank rushes to catch up to the Fed in terms of asset “quality” backing the currency.

Marketwatch has more on the FAZ interview:

[Stark] added the structure of the balance sheet is a cause for concern because increasingly short-term debt claims are being replaced by long-term ones and this will make it more difficult for the bank to reverse its loose monetary policy.

 

With his comments, the bank’s former hawk Stark is backing Germany’s central bank president Jens Weidmann. The head of the Bundesbank told Der Spiegel weekly magazine over the weekend that requirements for banks’ cheap loans have been “very generous” and the program calms the situation in the short term, but this calm could be deceptive. He was concerned about the collateral requirements that the banks had to provide.

 

The ECB’s balance sheet soared past the EUR3 trillion level last week partly because the bank has flooded markets with over EUR500 billion in cheap loans for banks.

Of course, this long-term deterioration in prospects for yet another central bank means that it has bought a short-term reprieve, as has been reflected by rising asset prices. However, what happens when the effect of this latest dilution in the value of the paper currency fades, or worse, when the ECB’s balance sheet becomes non-performing and confidence in the montary authority is lost?

Well, since that will be “someone else’ problem” why worry?”

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Jim Rogers Says the China Bears are Dead Wrong

“Business Insider recently spoke with investment guru Jim Rogers on a myriad of issues. Yesterday, we shared with you Roger’s thoughts on commodities and the U.S. economy.

Today, we share with you his bullish perspective on China.

You’re a China bull. Could you tell me the one thing that you think China bears have got wrong?

Not quite sure. If you mean the people who say China is going to explode. Those guys have been saying that for three years. I guess someday they’ll be right. So far they’ve been dead wrong, for years. There will be setbacks in China along the way. In America in the19th century we had 15 depressions with a capital “D,” we had no human rights, we had not much rule of law, (and we) had a horrible civil war, yet we became the most successful country in the 20th century.

China is going to have plenty of setbacks but what these guys are mainly missing is China has been in decline for three or four hundred years but started turning it around in 1978. And there’s a long history of entrepreneurship, capitalism, they have the brains, they have the know-how, there are many overseas Chinese who will bring back money and management ability. And the Chinese have a very, very high savings rate. They save over 35 percent of their income and so even if they start going off, they’ve got something to fall back on, as opposed to America and the rest of the world….”

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