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Monthly Archives: March 2012

Consumer Confidence Soars to a Four Year High

“Household confidence improved last week to a four-year high as more Americans said the economy was improving and decided it was a good time to shop.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (COMFCOMF) was minus 36.7 in the period ended March 4, the highest since April 2008, up from minus 38.8 in the prior period. The gauge on the state of the economy reached a one-year high, while the buying-climate measure climbed to a level last exceeded in December 2009.

For a fifth straight week, half of those surveyed also rated their personal finances as positive, bolstered by a resilient stock market, faster job growth and rising wages. Stronger household balance sheets may be helping ease the sting of the steepest gasoline prices in almost a year.

“Consumers are much more comfortable about their own personal financial situations, which is largely negating the recent rise in gasoline prices,” said Joe Brusuelas, a senior economist at Bloomberg LP in New York. “That said, consumer confidence remains at the low end of the historical range.”

Full report

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Today’s Money Flows

ISSUE GAINERS                 SYMBOL   EXCH   LAST PRICE   MONEY FLOW    RATIO 
                                                          (in millions) 
Apple                          AAPL    NASD      534.02       +49.0       1.11 
Bank Of America                BAC     NYSE        8.04       +23.2       1.84 
McDonald's                     MCD     NYSE       96.65       +19.7       1.26 
Google                         GOOG    NASD      610.50       +18.8       1.58 
Nationstar Mortgage Hldgs      NSM     NYSE       13.79       +16.8       4.56 
Intel                          INTC    NASD       26.86       +16.3       2.19 
Fossil                         FOSL    NASD      125.16       +14.8       4.22 
ExxonMobil                     XOM     NYSE       85.07       +14.1       1.29 
Schlumberger                   SLB     NYSE       75.34       +13.9       2.73 
General Electric               GE      NYSE       19.01       +12.1       1.95 
Caterpillar                    CAT     NYSE      109.01       +11.4       1.40 
Amazoncom                      AMZN    NASD      183.97       +11.4       1.51 
HMS Hldgs                      HMSY    NASD       29.09       +10.2      27.74 
Freeport McMoran               FCX     NYSE       39.42        +9.9       1.45 
Baidu                          BIDU    NASD      137.25        +9.5       1.26 
Chevron                        CVX     NYSE      110.24        +9.4       1.53 
Coach                          COH     NYSE       76.39        +9.1       1.55 
Select Sector SPDR-Matrls      XLB     ARCA       36.38        +8.7       3.08 
Abbott Labs                    ABT     NYSE       57.14        +8.5       1.70 
Salesforcecom                  CRM     NYSE      145.30        +8.3       1.69 

ISSUE DECLINERS               SYMBOL   EXCH   LAST PRICE   MONEY FLOW    RATIO 
                                                          (in millions) 
Annaly Capital Mgmnt           NLY     NYSE       16.17       -69.6       0.25 
American Capital Agency        AGNC    NASD       29.46       -43.0       0.49 
Amer Intl Group                AIG     NYSE       28.48       -30.7       0.59 
Microsoft                      MSFT    NASD       32.19       -27.5       0.35 
BP PLC                         BP      NYSE       47.03       -23.9       0.20 
iShs MSCI All Cty As x Jp      AAXJ    NASD       57.04       -23.2       0.02 
Boeing                         BA      NYSE       74.43       -20.1       0.23 
JPMorgan Chase                 JPM     NYSE       40.65       -15.2       0.55 
Select Sector SPDR-Finl        XLF     ARCA       14.70       -13.8       0.28 
Citrix Systems                 CTXS    NASD       73.94       -13.7       0.32 
Verizon Communications         VZ      NYSE       39.39       -13.0       0.60 
IBM                            IBM     NYSE      199.10       -12.7       0.62 
Procter & Gamble               PG      NYSE       66.93       -10.4       0.36 
Pfizer                         PFE     NYSE       21.52        -9.0       0.45 
Halliburton                    HAL     NYSE       34.64        -8.1       0.41 
Valero Energy                  VLO     NYSE       27.46        -8.0       0.56 
Wells Fargo                    WFC     NYSE       30.89        -7.9       0.59 
H&R Block                      HRB     NYSE       15.77        -6.9       0.56 
Citigroup                      C       NYSE       33.42        -6.6       0.81 
CBS Corp B                     CBS     NYSE       30.53        -6.4       0.38

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52 Week Highs and Lows

NYSE

New Highs 46 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      HIGH                VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Allergan                      AGN         91.98              315,847 
Alliance CA Municipal         AKP         15.68               12,982 
Amer Eagle Outfitters         AEO         16.43            2,155,865 
Amer Vanguard                 AVD         19.22               55,060 
Anheuser Busch                BUD         68.94              285,130 
Apollo Residential Mtg        AMTG        19.52               61,899 
BlackRockMuni Tr              BYM         15.90                8,873 
BlRk Muyld NJ Qlty            MJI         17.04               11,730 
BlkRk MuniYld PA Quality      MPA         17.25                6,168 
BlkRk Cr Alloc Tr I           PSW         10.29               17,685 
Brookfield Infrastructure     BIP         30.49               23,025 
CBS Corp B                    CBS         30.60            1,458,579 
CDI Corp                      CDI         16.61               12,111 
CH Energy Group               CHG         67.03                5,818 
CoreSite Realty               COR         22.98                6,206 
Crown Castle Intl             CCI         54.42            2,587,045 
Delphi Fincl                  DFG         44.92               55,131 
Dillard's                     DDS         62.38               89,195 
Douglas Emmett                DEI         22.05               64,664 
El Paso Corp                  EP          28.67              586,286 
Express                       EXPR        25.82              436,108 
Foot Locker                   FL          30.17              197,534 
Helios Multi-Sec Inco Fd      HMH         6.10                 9,705 
Jarden Corp                   JAH         38.00              107,745 
Just Energy Group             JE          13.50               19,900 
Kinder Morgan                 KMI         36.93              139,963 
Lennar Corp A                 LEN         24.37              839,590 
Lennar Corp B                 LEN/B       19.68               11,034 
Liz Claiborne                 LIZ         11.88              132,402 
Lowe's Cos                    LOW         29.35            5,031,395 
MaquarieInfrastr              MIC         31.73               27,326 
Main Street Capital           MAIN        24.43               24,008 
MarkWest                      MWE         60.97               19,452 
Mead Johnson Nutrition        MJN         79.91               86,600 
Men's Wearhouse               MW          40.97              550,193 
Motorola Solutions            MSI         52.78              357,487 
Neenah Paper                  NP          29.87               33,424 
Packaging Corp Amer           PKG         30.22               68,431 
Rex American Resources        REX         32.12                7,935 
Rite Aid                      RAD         1.75             5,285,640 
Rose Rock Midstream           RRMS        25.42                5,201 
STAG Industrial               STAG        13.44               30,673 
Sally Beauty Hldgs            SBH         25.00              125,925 
Sun Communities               SUI         42.42               10,873 
Target Corp                   TGT         57.05              560,113 
Telecom New Zealand           NZT         9.58                68,562 

New Lows 4 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      LOW                 VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
DelhaizeGrp                   DEG         50.72               16,430 
Dynegy                        DYN         1.15               225,825 
Inergy LP                     NRGY        16.79              205,593 
No Amer Engy Ptnrs            NOA         4.51                14,714

NASDAQ

New Highs 44 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      HIGH                VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Access National               ANCX        10.55                1,930 
Amer Cap Mortgage Invt        MTGE        24.11              210,988 
American River Bankshares     AMRB        7.09                   100 
Ameris Bancorp                ABCB        11.96                2,961 
Analogic                      ALOG        61.32               10,087 
Annapolis Bancorp             ANNB        5.49                 1,150 
Arctic Cat                    ACAT        39.95               22,934 
athenahealth                  ATHN        73.17               21,084 
Cal-Maine Foods               CALM        40.32               16,358 
Cerner                        CERN        76.52              162,469 
Clean Energy Fuels            CLNE        21.29              756,855 
ClickSoftware                 CKSW        11.65               17,405 
Comcast A Sp                  CMCSK       29.07              334,342 
Cyanotech                     CYAN        9.66                61,664 
Dollar Tree                   DLTR        92.49              106,060 
Fiserv                        FISV        67.26               59,713 
Furiex Pharmaceuticals        FURX        23.28               28,617 
Heska                         HSKA        11.42               16,660 
Homeownrs Choice              HCII        11.15               27,708 
Homeownrs Choice wt           HCIIW       1.12                16,935 
Hot Topic                     HOTT        10.11              606,339 
Huntingtn Pfd Cp 7.875% C     HPCCP       27.70                  330 
IAC/InterActive               IACI        48.12              164,706 
MTR Gaming Group              MNTG        4.23                30,490 
MainSource Fincl Group        MSFG        10.62               13,913 
Mesa Laboratories             MLAB        58.20                4,049 
North Valley Bancorp          NOVB        11.15                  800 
Novadaq Technologies          NVDQ        7.98                 5,300 
O'Reilly Automotive           ORLY        90.94               63,805 
PETsMART                      PETM        57.24              146,039 
RGC Resources                 RGCO        19.52                3,270 
Repligen                      RGEN        5.12               104,886 
Ross Stores                   ROST        55.51              161,458 
SMTC                          SMTX        3.85               166,880 
SXC Health Solutions          SXCI        74.37               54,042 
SeagateTech                   STX         28.00            1,799,779 
Standard Parking              STAN        19.79                3,771 
Starbucks                     SBUX        50.67            2,084,536 
Sucampo Pharm (Cl A)          SCMP        7.52                 2,400 
TAYC Cp Tr I 9.75% pfd        TAYCP       25.45                  300 
TearLab                       TEAR        2.68                95,227 
Tessco Techs                  TESS        21.00                6,079 
Town Sports Intl Hldgs        CLUB        10.99                9,633 
Ulta Salon Cosmetics          ULTA        90.36              258,182 

New Lows 8 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      LOW                 VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Deckers Outdoor               DECK        65.52              962,533 
First Solar                   FSLR        25.29            1,547,134 
Overstockcom                  OSTK        4.97                67,286 
Sigma Designs                 SIGM        4.87               242,895 
Stewart Enterprs Cl A         STEI        4.92               222,768 
Trius Therapeutics            TSRX        4.80                17,426 
Wi-Lan                        WILN        4.38                67,111 
ZELTIQ Aesthetics             ZLTQ        5.94               233,534

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The IRS is Going After Conservative Groups Seeking Tax Breaks as Non Profits

Source

“A battle is brewing between politically-oriented nonprofit organizations and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) about whether the groups deserve tax-protected status. Although such groups support both major political parties, it is the wealthier conservative groups, such American Crossroads and those affiliated with the Tea Party, that are up in arms.

Under the U.S. tax code, 501(c)(4) groups are tax-exempt because their purpose is “social welfare.” They are allowed to engage in a certain amount of political activity, but politics cannot be their primary focus. American Crossroads, co-founded by Karl Rove, and Priorities USA, backed by President Barack Obama, claim that they are apolitical social welfare organizations, a description that elicits snickers—at best—from independent observers. The IRS believes that these faux-social welfare groups should pay taxes.
According to the IRS, “The promotion of social welfare does not include any unrelated business activities or intervention in political campaigns on behalf of or in opposition to any candidate for public office.”
Also at issue is the suspicion that corporations are donating to political super PACs and then deducting their contributions as business expenses.”

 

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Most Active Options Trades This Morning

-CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
MCD        6/16/12        105.0000         510            0.5700      dn 0.7100 
AAPL       3/9/12         540.0000         233            1.3500      dn 0.0800 
AAPL       3/9/12         535.0000         157            3.1000      up 0.4700 
FITB       3/17/12         13.0000         147            0.6700      up 0.4100 
BAC        3/9/12           8.0000         144            0.1000      up 0.0200 
WFC        4/21/12         33.0000         141            0.3200      up 0.0900 
DNDN       3/9/12          10.0000         140            0.1000      dn 0.4800 
SBUX       3/17/12         52.5000         132            0.1400      up 0.1100 
GS         4/21/12        125.0000         118            2.4500      up 0.5300 
FCX        4/21/12         36.0000         108            4.1500      up 0.2500 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
DNDN       3/9/12          10.0000         563            0.6800      up 0.5700 
DNDN       4/21/12          8.0000         211            0.6800      up 0.4300 
DHI        4/21/12         14.0000         180            0.6600      dn 0.3000 
AAPL       3/9/12         535.0000         126            4.7000      dn 1.9000 
BAC        3/9/12           8.0000         117            0.0600      dn 0.0400 
AIG        8/18/12         30.0000         110            3.5500      up 0.3000 
C          3/17/12         30.0000          97            0.0600      dn 0.0400 
GMCR       3/9/12          57.5000          95            0.2400      up 0.2000 
AAPL       3/9/12         525.0000          92            1.1000      dn 1.3000 
LOW        10/20/12        29.0000          83            2.4300      dn 0.2100 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
12585    10334        22919
-CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
BAC        4/21/12          9.0000        6336            0.1100      up 0.0100 
VLO        3/17/12         27.0000        2484            0.9100      up 0.2500 
BX         1/18/14         15.0000        1950            2.9000      up 0.2500 
WFC        4/21/12         33.0000        1851            0.3100      up 0.0900 
BAC        1/19/13         10.0000        1655            0.6400      up 0.0300 
NYX        3/17/12         32.0000        1500            0.0100      dn 0.0400 
AAPL       3/17/12        540.0000        1464            5.9000      up 0.4500 
BAC        3/9/12           8.0000        1403            0.1000      up 0.0200 
CCL        3/17/12         32.0000        1351            0.6500      up 0.2500 
CCL        4/21/12         34.0000        1350            0.3800      up 0.0300 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
DHI        4/21/12         14.0000        3394            0.6900      up 0.0200 
AAPL       3/9/12         535.0000        1975            4.2500      dn 2.6000 
AAPL       3/9/12         525.0000        1530            1.0100      dn 1.3700 
AAPL       3/9/12         530.0000        1496            2.1900      dn 2.0100 
DHI        5/19/12         14.0000        1201            0.9400      up 0.0000 
C          3/17/12         30.0000         865            0.0600      dn 0.0400 
AGNC       3/17/12         29.0000         810            0.1100      up 0.0400 
AAPL       3/9/12         520.0000         783            0.5100      dn 0.8400 
AIG        3/17/12         28.0000         693            0.3600      up 0.1800 
XOM        3/17/12         82.5000         678            0.2300      up 0.0800 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
305328    242576        547904

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EX- ECB’s Juergen Agrees With Jeremey Banks in That the ECB’s Balance Sheet “Gigantic”, Collateral Quality “Shocking”

Source

“The German criticism of a mess they themselves have enabled (and benefit from via peripheral current account deficits funded via TARGET2 as shown previously here) at the ECB continues, and following public protests by Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann about recent ECB activity, it is the turn of former ECB executive board member Juergen Stark to take center stage. In an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine, warned that following the massive expansion in the ECB’s balance sheet, in which it is clear to anyone that the ECB will accept used candy bar wrappers as collateral, that “the balance sheet of the euro system, isn’t only gigantic in size but also shocking in quality.”

Of course, with the ECB now the bad banks’ bad bank, this is not at all surprising. Keep in mind that the recent $1.3 trillion balance sheet expansion was supposedly not the equivalent of “printing money” because the ECB made the cash available in the form of a loan in exchange for collateral. The problem is that the ECB accepted literally everything that was not nailed down and proceeded to give 100 cents on the dollar for some unamortized book value associated with it. The end result was the already documented here first encroaching ECB initiated margin calls which may or may not be an added twist in the European liquidity situation. However one thing is certain: the quality of the ECB’s balance sheet has deteriorated massively, as the European central bank rushes to catch up to the Fed in terms of asset “quality” backing the currency.

Marketwatch has more on the FAZ interview:

[Stark] added the structure of the balance sheet is a cause for concern because increasingly short-term debt claims are being replaced by long-term ones and this will make it more difficult for the bank to reverse its loose monetary policy.

 

With his comments, the bank’s former hawk Stark is backing Germany’s central bank president Jens Weidmann. The head of the Bundesbank told Der Spiegel weekly magazine over the weekend that requirements for banks’ cheap loans have been “very generous” and the program calms the situation in the short term, but this calm could be deceptive. He was concerned about the collateral requirements that the banks had to provide.

 

The ECB’s balance sheet soared past the EUR3 trillion level last week partly because the bank has flooded markets with over EUR500 billion in cheap loans for banks.

Of course, this long-term deterioration in prospects for yet another central bank means that it has bought a short-term reprieve, as has been reflected by rising asset prices. However, what happens when the effect of this latest dilution in the value of the paper currency fades, or worse, when the ECB’s balance sheet becomes non-performing and confidence in the montary authority is lost?

Well, since that will be “someone else’ problem” why worry?”

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The ECB Cuts Eurozone GDP Growth Again

Source

“LONDON—The European Central Bank Thursday admitted that the euro-zone’s economy is likely to contract this year, and that inflation will outstrip the bank’s medium target.

Opening his monthly press conference, Mario Draghi said that higher-than-expected energy prices, along with increases in various state-administered prices, meant that “inflation is expected to remain above 2% in 2012, with upside risks prevailing.”

The central inflation forecast for 2012 is now 2.4%, up from 2% three months ago, Mr. Draghi said….”

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The U.S. Warns Apple and Other Tablet Makers That They Will Be Sued

“The Justice Department has warned Apple Inc. and five of the biggest U.S. publishers that it plans to sue them for allegedly colluding to raise the price of electronic books, according to people familiar with the matter.

Getty ImagesApple CEO Tim Cook speaks during Wednesday’s iPad product launch.

Several of the parties have held talks to settle the antitrust case and head off a potentially damaging court battle, these people said. If successful, such a settlement could have wide-ranging repercussions for the industry, potentially leading to cheaper e-books for consumers. However, not every publisher is in settlement discussions.

The five publishers facing a potential suit are CBS Corp.’s Simon & Schuster Inc.;Lagardere SCA’s Hachette Book Group;Pearson PLC’s Penguin Group (USA); Macmillan, a unit of Verlagsgruppe Georg von Holtzbrinck GmbH; and HarperCollins Publishers Inc., a unit of News Corp. , which also owns The Wall Street Journal….”

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Credit Suisse Say Not to Worry About Oil Prices….Not Yet at Least

Source

“From Credit Suisse’s Andrew Garthwaite:

The impact on GDP: each 10% rise in the oil price takes 0.2% off US GDP growth and 0.1% off global growth.This time the negative impact of a high oil price on growth is limited as: oil is only 10% above its 6-month MA (changes matter more than levels for growth); other energy prices are muted (coal prices are at 12-month lows, US gas prices down 40% yoy) and CPI food price inflation should fall by 5pp from here (adding 0.7% to disposable income); critically, unlike 2008 and 2011, neither the ECB nor GEM central banks are likely to raise rates in response to higher energy costs; and US macro momentum is currently consistent with GDP 0.8% above 2012 consensus, suggesting some buffer before consensus estimates get downgraded.

Impact on equities: since 2007, equities have tended to fall when oil prices rise by 40% yoy (i.e. an oil price of c$150/bbl). From a macro perspective, we would start worrying if the rise in the oil price pushed up US CPI above 4% (that is when equities de-rate, c$160/bbl), US GDP started being revised down (c$150/bbl) or European inflation rose above 2% year-end (c$140/bbl). Another warning signal is when inflation expectations decouple and start falling as oil continues to rise (as has happened in the past week). Each 10% rise in the oil price takes 2% off European EPS and c1% in the US, on our estimates (yet current valuations can accommodate a c10% fall in earnings).”

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Jim Rogers Says the China Bears are Dead Wrong

“Business Insider recently spoke with investment guru Jim Rogers on a myriad of issues. Yesterday, we shared with you Roger’s thoughts on commodities and the U.S. economy.

Today, we share with you his bullish perspective on China.

You’re a China bull. Could you tell me the one thing that you think China bears have got wrong?

Not quite sure. If you mean the people who say China is going to explode. Those guys have been saying that for three years. I guess someday they’ll be right. So far they’ve been dead wrong, for years. There will be setbacks in China along the way. In America in the19th century we had 15 depressions with a capital “D,” we had no human rights, we had not much rule of law, (and we) had a horrible civil war, yet we became the most successful country in the 20th century.

China is going to have plenty of setbacks but what these guys are mainly missing is China has been in decline for three or four hundred years but started turning it around in 1978. And there’s a long history of entrepreneurship, capitalism, they have the brains, they have the know-how, there are many overseas Chinese who will bring back money and management ability. And the Chinese have a very, very high savings rate. They save over 35 percent of their income and so even if they start going off, they’ve got something to fall back on, as opposed to America and the rest of the world….”

Read more: 

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