“Despite a recent spate of uplifting economic indicators, the U.S. economy will slide into a recession in 2012 and likely spend most of the year in it, says investor and author A. Gary Shilling.
While the country is showing some signs of improvement, decades of debt continue to weigh on the overall economy, which will need another year of de-leveraging before growth and normalcy can return.
Despite recent stronger economic data, the United States is likely to fall into a recession that will spread globally. The reason? “The U.S. has too much debt — and reducing it hurts growth,” Shilling writes in a Christian Science Monitory column.”
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He’s old.
Gary Shilling… bearish since The Nixon Administration and proud of it.
Not a bad guy at a party, however.
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Yes, he wrote a great book, “Deflation: How to Survive and Thrive in the Coming Wave of Deflation” (pub. 1999). Has such useful chapters as Chapt 1, Government Spending Is Shrinking; Chapt 9, The Strengthening Dollar (to be fair, it did go up for two years before plunging); and Chapt 26, Avoid Commodities and Real Estate (predicting copper, oil, and gold will decline – yeah, right, and just before the biggest housing bubble ever).
At least his advice to buy bonds was correct.
The Great Deleveraging was a pretty recent publication of his also.