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Monthly Archives: May 2011

The Bowtie Diaries: Breaking Advice from Jim Rogers to a Young Lad

Don’t use a Band-Aid! Take the pain, let the wound heal, and then you can move on from a strong base. Only an IDIOT like Dr. Bernanke would put a Band-Aid on your wound. You’re making mistakes like those IDIOTS on CNBC did in 2000 when they went on the air every day and said, “Buy now! Buy dot.com!” Stop printing money and stop wearing Band-Aids!!!!!!! -Jim Rogers, The Bowtie Diaries

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Consumers Fail to Sustain Restaurant Economic Recovery

The table was set for a recovery in restaurant sales; then something happened, it didn’t materialize.

The economy was improving, and families started to eat out more often, which is usually an early sign of the industry’s turnaround. After several years of tightening belts, it appeared consumers would start eating out more frequently.

But a double-whammy of high gasoline prices and rising food costs polarized consumers.

Full Story Here

Source: CNBC

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FLASH: House Approves Bill to Lift Drilling Moratorium

The House of Representatives voted to open more of the nation’s oceans for oil and gas exploration on Thursday by a vote of 243 to 179.

The “Reversing President Obama’s Offshore Moratorium Act,” requires the Interior Department to set a production goal of three million barrels of oil per day for its 2012-2017 leasing plan.

In order to reach that target, the legislation requires the department to hold lease sales off the coast of Southern California, in the Arctic Ocean, off Alaska’s Bristol Bay, and in the Atlantic Ocean from Maine to North Carolina.

Read more: http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2011/05/12/house-approves-bill-lift-drilling-moratorium#ixzz1MCerPs2z

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Leon Cooperman Looking to Comb Over Billions Into Stocks

Renown hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman thinks the S&P 500 index could climb to the 1,425 level by year-end, trader Pete Najarian said Thursday. Energy and technology stocks will likely propel the index to that level, Cooperman told Najarian off-camera.

The former CEO and chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Cooperman spent 25 years at the New York City-based financial institution. In 1991, Cooperman left Goldman and started Omega Advisors. Today, he manages roughly $6 billion.

Full Story Here

Source: CNBC

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The Bowtie Diaries: Jim Rogers’ Worst Commodity Nightmare

The long-term expected rate of return on commodities is ‘zero,’ according to Mark Matson of Matson Money.

“Equities are the best long-term creators of wealth and if you own a diversified portfolio, you already own commodities in all of your stocks, so don’t double down—it doesn’t make sense for long-term investors,” Matson told CNBC.

Full Story Here

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Exxon: Eliminating Tax Cuts would be “counterproductive”

“Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Officer Rex W. Tillerson said losing $21 billion in U.S. tax breaks provided to oil companies would cut investments in energy projects, limit job creation and slow economic growth.

Senate Democrats are proposing to repeal the incentives for Exxon, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Chevron Corp., ConocoPhillips and BP Plc to help shrink the federal deficit. Tillerson called the plan “counterproductive,” in testimony submitted for a Senate Finance Committee hearing today in Washington at which executives from the five companies were asked to appear.

“Increasing these companies’ taxes would only discriminate against certain U.S. workers, make our companies less competitive against others who are in the same business, and discourage future energy investment,” said Tillerson, who also is Exxon’s chairman. “If the U.S. oil and gas industry was permitted to develop our nation’s enormous untapped energy supplies, it could put downward pressure on energy prices and increase revenues for government budgets.”

Exxon, the world’s largest company by market value, reported a 69 percent increase in first-quarter profit, the biggest jump in eight years. Net income rose to $10.7 billion from $6.3 billion a year earlier, Irving, Texas-based Exxon said on April 28.”

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John Taylor: the rally in higher-yielding assets is coming to an end with Europe’s sovereign debt crisis resurfacing

“John Taylor, founder of the world’s largest currency-hedge fund, said the rally in higher-yielding assets is coming to an end with Europe’s sovereign debt crisis resurfacing, growth sluggish and banking systems unsteady.

“This is the end of the nice slow moving risk rally that has lulled us pleasantly to sleep since the first half of 2009,” Taylor, chairman of New York-based FX Concepts LLC, said in an interview. “This warning is worthy of a brass band and bright lights as the other side of this low volatility rally will most likely be a scary descent that will have a very negative impact on markets. Our statistical models say we are about at the end of the road for risk.”

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Federal Prosecutors are Seeking $1 billion Out of J&J

“Federal prosecutors are seeking roughly $1 billion to resolve a long-running probe into Johnson & Johnson’s marketing of the antipsychotic drug Risperdal, according to people familiar with the matter.”

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IMF Urges Latin America to Curb Growth or Face a Possible Crisis

“Latin America’s economic boom could end in a “full-blown” crisis unless the region’s governments properly manage the situation, the International Monetary Fund’s top regional official said in an unusually stark warning to both policymakers and investors Thursday.

Nicolas Eyzaguirre, the IMF’s director for the western hemisphere, said that Latin America’s economic fundamentals appear to be in good shape. Yet he urged policymakers to take steps to keep their economies from overheating by trimming public spending, maintaining sound monetary policy and setting aside as much of the windfall from the current boom as possible.

Otherwise, he told a conference of central bankers in Rio de Janeiro, the region could see its currencies dramatically weaken as a result of a sudden external shock — such as a fall in global commodities prices or an unexpectedly fast increase in interest rates in the United States.”

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Basic Material Losers (2 weeks)

(Includes long and short, average volume > 25k. ETFs excluded.)

No. Ticker 2-week Return % Change Industry Sector
1 PEIX 1.51 21.03 Specialty Chemicals BASIC MATERIALS
2 CAK -5.10 14.62 Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration BASIC MATERIALS
3 COIN -14.09 11.18 Agricultural Chemicals BASIC MATERIALS
4 SSRI -16.19 7.20 Silver BASIC MATERIALS
5 ANW 6.79 6.63 Basic Materials Wholesale BASIC MATERIALS
6 NSU -16.10 6.03 Gold BASIC MATERIALS
7 CLD 6.01 5.36 Industrial Metals & Minerals BASIC MATERIALS
8 AG -11.00 5.30 Silver BASIC MATERIALS
9 ANV -19.78 4.59 Gold BASIC MATERIALS
10 PENX 0.54 4.53 Specialty Chemicals BASIC MATERIALS
11 ROYL -29.54 4.38 Independent Oil & Gas BASIC MATERIALS
12 EXK -20.07 4.33 Silver BASIC MATERIALS
13 GMO -12.45 4.07 Industrial Metals & Minerals BASIC MATERIALS
14 NR 17.84 3.95 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services BASIC MATERIALS
15 FXEN -8.75 3.84 Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration BASIC MATERIALS
16 ATI -0.64 3.66 Industrial Metals & Minerals BASIC MATERIALS
17 ROCK 16.96 3.58 Steel & Iron BASIC MATERIALS
18 LNG -10.13 3.53 Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration BASIC MATERIALS
19 BAK 1.77 3.53 Specialty Chemicals BASIC MATERIALS
20 SPN -7.22 3.47 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services BASIC MATERIALS
21 ZINC -12.00 3.38 Industrial Metals & Minerals BASIC MATERIALS
22 BAS -11.73 3.36 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services BASIC MATERIALS
23 USEG -17.20 3.34 Industrial Metals & Minerals BASIC MATERIALS
24 SUF -17.60 3.00 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing BASIC MATERIALS
25 AAU -14.52 3.00 Industrial Metals & Minerals BASIC MATERIALS

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Scam: WATG

Wonder Auto Tech files to delay its 10-Q (5.42)
As a result of the pending restatement of its financial statements and the pending investigation by co’s Audit Committee, WATG has not filed its Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2010 and does not expect to be able to file its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2011 by the filing deadline of May 10, 2011. Co plans to provide its Plan of Compliance to Nasdaq on or about May 13 and in no event later than May 23, 2011. Co does not expect that its filings will be completed until the completion of the investigation

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Democrats Protest GOP Plans to Declare a Permanent State of War Against Terror

“Nearly three dozen House Democrats are calling on Republicans to withdraw a section of the 2012 defense authorization bill that they say would effectively declare a state of permanent war against unnamed Taliban and al Qaeda operatives.

A Tuesday letter from House Judiciary Committee Chairman John Conyers Jr. (D-Mich.) and 32 other Democrats argues that affirming continued war against terrorist forces goes too far, giving too much authority to the president without debate in Congress.

Their letter cites language in the authorization bill that incorporates the Detainee Security Act, which affirms continued armed conflict against terrorists overseas.”

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Did the COMEX Crash The Silver Market ?

“By the close of trading on Wednesday, May 4th, the silver market had experienced significant selling pressure that drove prices down by 17.3% from Thursday, April 28th.  This sell off corresponded exactly to a series of increased margin requirements by the COMEX  for trading silver futures contracts.

Silver traders who may have been apprehensive about additional margin increases did not have long to wait.  After the close on Wednesday, May 4th, the COMEX announced two huge additional hikes in silver margin, effective at the close of business on Thursday and another hike effective at the close of trading on Monday, May 9th. As of Monday, initial contract margin requirements would be increased to $21,600 and to $16,000 for hedgers.  A year ago, when silver was trading in the $18 range, the margin requirement for a speculative contract was only $4,250.

The rapid series of five margin increases by the COMEX resulted in raising initial margin requirements….”

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Senator Hatch Warns Against Punishing Business for Being Profitable

“(CNSNews.com) – Even before the first oil company executive testified before the Senate Finance Committee on Thursday, Sen. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) criticized the hearing as a dog-and-pony show.

Lawmakers should not go down the “dangerous road” of punishing American businesses for being profitable, said Hatch, the committee’s ranking member.

With a photo of a dog riding a pony as a backdrop behind him, Hatch said Thursday’s hearing would only provide “political theater.”

He noted that contrary to what some people think, the Obama administration does indeed have an energy policy: “Are you ready for this? Their energy policy is to increase the cost of energy,” Hatch said.”

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