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Monthly Archives: May 2011

Flooding in The Bread Basket is Sending Grain Prices Higher

“Less than a year after the worst drought in a generation destroyed one-third of Russia’s wheat crop and sent global food prices surging, more bad weather is damaging fields from North America to Europe to Asia.

Corn planting in the U.S., the world’s largest grower, is advancing at half of last year’s pace because of excess rain, government data show. The Canadian Wheat Board said fields are so muddy that only 3 percent of grain has been sown, compared with 40 percent normally. At the same time, drought left the Kansas wheat crop in the worst shape since 1996, and dry spells are threatening crops in France, Western Australia and China.”

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QE2 is Working

Ben S. Bernanke’s $600 billion strike against deflation is paying off, as stock and debt markets rise, bank lending grows and economists forecast faster growth.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gained 13.5 percent since the Federal Reserve chairman announced on Nov. 3 the plan to buy Treasuries through its so-called quantitative easing policy. Government bond yields show investors expect consumer prices to rise in line with historical averages. The riskiest companies are obtaining credit at the cheapest borrowing costs ever and Fed data show that commercial and industrial loans outstanding are rising for the first time since 2008.”

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European Markets Rise Above a Weak Euro and Greek Debt Problems

“European stocks climbed as InterContinental Hotels Group Plc (IHG) and Deutsche Post AG (DPW) posted increased earnings, helping reassure investors that the global recovery remains intact. U.S. futures and Asian shares advanced.

InterContinental Hotels surged 3.3 percent after reporting a 28 percent jump in first-quarter profit as travel recovered in the Americas. Deutsche Post gained 2.5 percent after the world’s biggest carrier of air and sea freight by volume reported first- quarter earnings before interest and taxes that exceeded the average of 14 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

The Stoxx 600 rose 1 percent to 283.12 at 12:49 p.m. in London as more than seven stocks climbed for every one that dropped. The gauge has gained 8 percent from this year’s low on March 16 as companies including PSA Peugeot Citroen and Ericsson AB reported earnings that topped analysts’ estimates and the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its pledge to keep interest rates low for an extended period.”

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Asian Markets Shrug Off Negativity and Move Higher

“Asian stocks rose as improving earnings among Japanese companies tempered concern that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will hold back a global economic recovery.

Sumitomo Heavy Industries Ltd. surged 12 percent in Tokyoafter surpassing its full-year profit forecast by 27 percent. Toshiba Corp. gained 3.7 percent after saying earnings will climb to a record. Nintendo Co., a video-game console maker that gets a third of its revenue from Europe, lost 1.6 percent in Osaka after Standard & Poor’s cut Greece’s credit rating by two levels. Billabong International Ltd. (BBG), which gets about a fifth of its sales from the region, dropped 1.2 percent in Sydney.”

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China’s Voracious Appetite for Oil Continues in April Import Numbers

China’s daily net crude oil imports rose 3 percent in April from a month earlier as refineries increased fuel production to ensure supplies to factories in the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

Net imports reached 21.25 million metric tons last month, or 5.2 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data posted today on the website of the Beijing-based General Administration of Customs. Net inbound shipments gained 1.3 percent from a year earlier.

Factories boosted April exports to a historic high of $155.7 billion, spurring refiners includingChina Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (600028) and PetroChina Co. to produce more gasoline and diesel. The government, which controls fuel prices to curb inflation, raised tariffs on April 7, helping to offset the 8.9 percent increase in the price of imported crude last month.”

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China’s Trade Surplus Comes in Three Times Larger Than Forecasts

China reported a trade surplus that was more than three times larger than forecast in April as exports surged to a record, bolstering the U.S. case for faster yuan gains as officials from both nations meet for annual talks in Washington.

The surplus widened to $11.4 billion and exceeded the forecasts of all 27 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Exports climbed 30 percent to $156 billion while import growth slowed to 22 percent, the customs bureau said today.

The rebound in China’s surplus to its highest this year may add pressure on the world’s biggest exporter and holder of foreign-exchange reserves to address imbalances and reduce inflation through steeper yuan appreciation. U.S. Treasury SecretaryTimothy F. Geithner and Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan pledged yesterday to tackle currency conflicts between the world’s biggest economies.”

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Gold and Silver Rise on Renewed Debt Concerns

“Gold may rise for a third day in London as concern aboutEurope’s debt woes spurs demand for precious metals as a protection of wealth. Silver gained.

Standard & Poor’s yesterday downgraded Greece’s credit rating for the fourth time since April 2010, rekindling concern the region’s debt crisis is escalating. Silver extended its rebound after dropping into a bear market last week.

“Economic uncertainties in the monetary union and fears over peripheral debt were returning to the focus yet again,” Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London, said in a report to clients. “In the short run, bullion is likely to remain well supported, also helped by physical activity picking up inAsia amid seasonal demand.”

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Greek Bond Yields Rip Higher as ECB Rejects Restructuring Their Debt

“European Central Bank officials warned of catastrophic consequences if Greece is allowed to restructure its sovereign debt.

“Default or debt restructuring is a dramatic economic and social event for the country which experiences it — I would call it political ‘suicide’ — which leads many into poverty,” Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said in Florence today. Fellow board member Juergen Stark said restructuring “wouldn’t be a solution to the problems that Greece needs to overcome.”

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The CME Strikes Again

This time they raised the margin requirement for crude. As a result, crude is down more than $1.60 in late trading.

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Michigan granted $200M for high speed rail

The rail system built with the $200M will purpotedly extend between Chicago and Detroit, and Michigan will receive a share of another $336M for the trains that will ride along this route.

This is part of the $2 billion that Florida turned down for their own federally funded high speed rail system earlier this year. That money has been divided amongst 15 states, including Michigan.

The Department of Transportation claims that these rails will provide access to 80% of Americans in 25 years. How exactly the creation of new railways (which will presumably built alongside or over existing track) is going to provide access to more Americans than current rail cars currently manage to provide, is never explained.

“These projects will put thousands of Americans to work, save hundreds of thousands of hours for American travelers every year, and boost U.S. manufacturing by investing hundreds of millions of dollars in next-generation, American-made locomotives and railcars,” said Vice President Joe Biden.

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Flash: Sotheby’s misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line

Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.03 per share, $0.01 worse than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.04; revenues rose 17.4% year/year to $119.6 mln vs the $119.5 mln consensus.

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Flash: Diodes reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus

Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.47 per share, in-line with the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.47; revenues rose 18.1% year/year to $161.6 mln vs the $159.8 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $170-178 mln vs. $167.97 mln Thomson Reuters consensus. Co expects gross margin to be comparable to the first quarter. Operating expenses are expected to be down slightly from the first quarter levels on a percent of revenue basis. They expect income tax rate to range between 17 and 23%. Shares used to calculate GAAP EPS for the second quarter are anticipated to be approximately 47.5 million.

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Today’s ETF Winners and Losers

No. Ticker % Change
1 AGQ 13.74
2 UCO 9.15
3 DYY 8.04
4 PSLV 8.04
5 DBS 7.13
6 SLV 6.87
7 DAG 5.88
8 UGA 5.81
9 ERX 5.20
10 BNO 5.19
11 OLEM 5.09
12 OLO 4.84
13 USO 4.76
14 DBO 4.71
15 OIL 4.60
16 DBE 4.25
17 GLTR 3.83
18 GSG 3.76
19 SIL 3.64
20 SGG 3.59
21 GSP 3.51
22 DBC 3.43
23 DIG 3.39
24 USL 3.38
25 PXJ 3.24

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No. Ticker % Change
1 ZSL -15.62
2 SCO -9.46
3 DTO -6.29
4 TVIX -5.98
5 ERY -5.50
6 GAZ -4.20
7 SMN -3.58
8 DUG -3.45
9 SZO -3.30
10 BXDC -3.09
11 GLL -3.08
12 DUST -3.05
13 TZA -2.97
14 SRTY -2.90
15 VXX -2.86
16 SKK -2.63
17 VIXY -2.62
18 DZZ -2.59
19 XRU -2.03
20 TWM -2.01
21 UNG -2.00
22 MWN -1.99
23 MZZ -1.98
24 EPU -1.97
25 SQQQ -1.80

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