Excuse me for my lapse of content; for you see, yesterday I was quite hung over.

A good friend and I went out to a local brewery and, after imbibing several pints apiece, returned to my abode where we preceded to break into a bottle of 15 year Scotch.

I awoke yesterday morning feeling as if one of Michigan’s own road workers was jackhammering the front of my skull. Combine that with some obligatory meetings I absolutely had to attend, plus a very large event being hosted by an organization I belong to that evening, and it made for a real “bitchin’” time.

But then, the market was trading as poorly as I felt, yesterday, so who cares?

More importantly, today CLP is up over 3%, as it surely continues its streak of earnings surprises. Watch closely as AEC follows in its footsteps. Not even the MGM downgrade can ruin my mood today; one fifth of my portfolio is presently unstoppable.

For the record, if MGM trades to $11, like that Credit Suisse analyst insists it should, then I will be buying hand over fist. I know I am especially late in my promised analysis of their operations; I will make due on that promise shortly.

But for the meantime, without evidence to support my position, I will just proclaim that I am a believer.

Now ladies and gentlemen, I am off to dine on fine Greek cuisine for lunch. I bid you well.

Comments »

Thanks all but entirely to my REITs and Bunge LTD, I was up way over the markets, as the rest of my portfolio drifted or dropped.

As for Bunge; Analyst Bomber (a.k.a. Robert) has a few points to say about the company. Since I respect his opinion, and find his writings to be superb, I’ll not fight him. However, I will be holding steady in my position and if I absolutely must, I will add to it.

The state of global food affairs is abysmal. I’m hearing a continuous stream of reports coming out of places like China, suggesting their food supply network has been neglected terribly, and meanwhile global unrest does not bode well for the bellies of the world’s hungry.

Take for instance: the Middle East.

They cannot be in a strong bargaining position right now, with half of their populations taking to the streets. Maybe Qadaffi burns half his countrymen at the stake. But then, in what state is he left?

Either he must redirect cash flows towards basic necessities to stabilize his country (that means buying up lots of food and reclaiming infrastructure) or else, if finding he lacks the funds needed for the challenge, he’ll have to start exporting heavily to cover the difference. (Not thinking many people are interested in buying up Libyan bonds, right now).

And I would point out, it’s very difficult to get top dollar for your main export when you desperately need to sell as much of it as possible.

I could posit this same point for the rest of the middle eastern countries. They cannot sacrifice food stocks right now, particularly because I doubt they have very many as it is. And, if they all need to sell oil to cover their need to import food, then it is quite possible that in the not too distant future, oil prices come under massive downward pressure.

The growers really cannot be overlooked here. Coupled with inate demand for their products across the globe, fueled by emerging economies so enamored by technology and manufacturing to have forgotten the basics, they may also be blessed with an environment of lower oil prices (may that translate to lower fuel prices); a blessed fallout from increased instability. Within the next two years, I desire to see such conditions come to fruition, allowing profit margins of growers to explode to the upside.

Comments »

I’ve been waiting for this stock to run. It looks like it’s pulling higher here. AEC should follow; between the two, I like AEC’s prospects as a smaller, faster growing corporation, considerably more.

If you need to refresh yourself on the REIT story and why these companies are going higher, you can find just that here.

The rest of the market feels weak. I’m not appreciating the action today.

Now I’m busy catching up with work, so I shall cut this meeting short.

Good day, to you.

Comments »

As usual, MGM is doing its own thing, down more than 3% in one day.

Why, you ask?

Why not? It’s MGM; it does that.

And as usual, in my quest for understanding why MGM does the things it does, I ended up on a number of Motley Fool posts talking about how awesome every casino except MGM is and why they are this unlovable duckling that deserves to be taken out back and shot.

Those posts have not helped my mood.

I was pleased when, upon getting back from my vacation, I discovered that Kerkorian had been moved to a more formal, less direct roll within the board. It’s about time. They’re also negotiating taking their Macao operation public on the China exchanges, and have managed to secure a majority position in said operations.

Basically, there’s a lot of good news coming from there. But people will not hear of it.

I cannot wait for this ugly duckling to grow into a swan, so that I might watch it take out the eyes of heathens – like vagrants on jet ski’s – in all of its’ stunning glory.

Comments »

And just where do you think you’re going, might I ask?

Where is it that trading out of your U.S. equities has become so tempting, to you? It isn’t precious metals, judging from the soft action.

The U.S. government’s credibility is directly tied to every nation on the planet. And, thereby, it is indirectly tied to all of global trade. Standard & Poors move is ballsy, no doubt. But since they haven’t even adjusted the rating (only the outlook) I wouldn’t fret too much.

More importantly, where is it that you feel your value would be better suited? Cash? Foreign equities? Foreign bonds?

How many of those things do you think will hold up unscathed if the U.S. government starts defaulting on obligations?

By far, the best places to plant money are equities and commodities. Equities are adaptable; they can maneuver into new mediums of trade, if need be. And commodities are basic and set the whole system in motion.

But cashing out of equities, because you are worried about the credit worthiness of the U.S. government, or into markets of our creditors, seems a little silly.

Really, you should only be hanging around in cash because you believe the U.S. government is not going to default. Remember, they don’t need to borrow cash from citizens to meet their debts, so higher interest rates are not a shoe in, here.

If our credit starts to fall, everyone will suffer. PM’s will maybe come out whole (before factoring in the collapse of industry and removal of actual goods you’d want to buy). There is no safe play here, so you may as well sit put.

Comments »

I am going through the portfolio with a hatchet this morning, cleaning up positions and trimming them down. My goal is to raise my cash position to 10%.

Ten percent.

That critical number which I aim to keep all my positions at; because that’s what cash is now.

Henceforth, I am investing in, “The Gubment,” in anticipation that their value is being greatly underestimated.

It’s not so much that I like the “company” now, as that I see the seedlings of reform being planted. The potential is in the works for the ‘ol “stock price” to barrel through the roof. On the one hand, many of you are probably shaking your head in disbelief, reiterating to yourself how they are utterly frozen most of the time these days. How they accomplish nothing and devalue the currency, et cetera, et cetera.

And all of that is true. But remember that they were mainly setting themselves up for this when they were getting things done. In light of that, their accomplishing nothing is actually a great improvement.

Plus, Europe has been getting torched for weeks now. We haven’t been saying much about it because of the Japan fiasco, but these events will come home to roost. Mark my words, we’re back where we were in 2010. A further collapse of the European states has not been priced in.

So I’ll be holding at least 10% of my portfolio in cash from here on.

You see, despite fully jumping on the devaluation station back in ’09 via large purchases of precious metals and massive leverage, I know when not to press a bet. And, I love this country, despite it being run by degenerate crack heads, and trust that is will ultimately succeed.

Bring back the all mighty dollar!

Comments »