Thanks all but entirely to my REITs and Bunge LTD, I was up way over the markets, as the rest of my portfolio drifted or dropped.
As for Bunge; Analyst Bomber (a.k.a. Robert) has a few points to say about the company. Since I respect his opinion, and find his writings to be superb, I’ll not fight him. However, I will be holding steady in my position and if I absolutely must, I will add to it.
The state of global food affairs is abysmal. I’m hearing a continuous stream of reports coming out of places like China, suggesting their food supply network has been neglected terribly, and meanwhile global unrest does not bode well for the bellies of the world’s hungry.
Take for instance: the Middle East.
They cannot be in a strong bargaining position right now, with half of their populations taking to the streets. Maybe Qadaffi burns half his countrymen at the stake. But then, in what state is he left?
Either he must redirect cash flows towards basic necessities to stabilize his country (that means buying up lots of food and reclaiming infrastructure) or else, if finding he lacks the funds needed for the challenge, he’ll have to start exporting heavily to cover the difference. (Not thinking many people are interested in buying up Libyan bonds, right now).
And I would point out, it’s very difficult to get top dollar for your main export when you desperately need to sell as much of it as possible.
I could posit this same point for the rest of the middle eastern countries. They cannot sacrifice food stocks right now, particularly because I doubt they have very many as it is. And, if they all need to sell oil to cover their need to import food, then it is quite possible that in the not too distant future, oil prices come under massive downward pressure.
The growers really cannot be overlooked here. Coupled with inate demand for their products across the globe, fueled by emerging economies so enamored by technology and manufacturing to have forgotten the basics, they may also be blessed with an environment of lower oil prices (may that translate to lower fuel prices); a blessed fallout from increased instability. Within the next two years, I desire to see such conditions come to fruition, allowing profit margins of growers to explode to the upside.
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any comment on AEC earnings? Enough to break out here?
Looks like a break out.
Not sure if this will be the start. The earnings were good, with strong underlying growth, and excellent decisions by management. Half of all properties have been freed of a mortgage and they paid off all debt due in 2011 this quarter. Plus, their occupancy rate now stands at an unheard of 96%.
But they still took down a small loss. It might take a profitable quarter or two before we start seeing deranged, covetous buying.
This is one of those cases where I only know with confidence that it will run higher, but not exactly when.
Missed by a penny but blew away revenues:
Associated Estates Realty Corp. (AEC) Posted an Q1 FFO of $0.23
4:43 pm ET 04/25/2011- StreetInsider
Associated Estates Realty Corp. (NYSE: AEC) reported Q1 FFO of $0.23, $0.01 worse than the analyst estimate of $0.24. Revenue for the quarter came in at $43.4 million versus the consensus estimate of $39.21 million.
New 52 week high for CLP today. 🙂
Damn straight. Let’s make some money.
Fucking Credit Suisse – hit piece on MGM.
Yeah, saw that…my condolences. Hate to say, but the chart on that one looks pretty bad, too. Looks like a lot of “risk-off” today before the Bernank.
On the other hand, AEC hit a new high today and looks like AWK is about to.
True there. If their target for MGM is $11, I’ll just sit on my hands and buy the dip.
Very pleased with the AEC, CLP, and AWK.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/affordable-rental-housing-scarce-in-us-study-finds/2011/04/25/AFcBjilE_story.html?hpid=z2
More about the rental market (sorry about URL length). What is the tipping point for renters to switch to buying houses? I suppose that’s a complex question, but I suppose if you’re spending half of your income on rent, you aren’t saving up 20% for a down payment on a house. Interesting nonetheless.