Surprise, ladies and gentlemen. While you may have forgotten my promise to record my performance, I have not.

Here is the Talir Index, updated from my first appearance on this site, through year end 2010.

I’ll go through and give a Q1 update midway through April. While I would like to do so immediately after March, I’m afraid I will be in the Caribbean starting April 8, until the 15th. And, while I’ll likely bounce on now and again to throw some smart ass remark, I will not be all that interested in playing around in spreadsheets…I’m sure you understand.

Now, I hope your weekend has been agreeable. I’ll see you back at it tomorrow.

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CLP announced today that they acquired another class A apartment complex, this one in Nevada, no less, for $341 million. They bought it at 95% occupancy.

Hurray.

That’s the third major acquisition they’ve made this month.

Update:

I’m back in MGM for $12.80 a share. I used my 10% cash position to repurchase; it’s not quite the 15% position I held before now. I’m not messing with margin right here, but with CLP buying up real estate in Nevada, and reports from one of our own regular on this site that Las Vegas is not the desperate shit hole it was two years ago, I’m not risking missing out on the Sin City recovery.

I have no cash, which is stupid with one of our largest debtors and trading partners on the table; however, I believe in each of the companies I have allocated resources to enough that it doesn’t matter to me. If the market should fall, in tandem, then I will deploy credit.

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I’m bouncing out of nuclear explosions here, as CCJ is up another 10% today. UEC is trailing, up about only 2%. AWK and physical silver are also doing well, up more than 2% themselves. Why, everything else I own is green too, as I crush the markets with impunity.

On top of that, I’m in a good mood, as I had a great weekend, which included shooting craps at MGM casino and a bottle of Glenlivet Scotch.

And on the issue of MGM; I sold out of my position because of fear that Japan would cause the treasury market to melt down. I already miss it…

You can expect me to re-buy my shares, probably after the proceeds from my stint in uranium miners comes to a glorious close.

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Oh, in case you missed the spectacle, I am partially long CCJ and UEC (5% each, not a full position in my eyes), since uranium is awesome. My cash position stands at 10%.

The reasoning goes something like this: you people are over reacting, so I’ll be buying up the energy source which runs much of your grids, cheap.

Most people jumped into alternative energy, coal, and natural gas, on the assumption that this was the end of nuclear prospects. However, you do not build a coal firing plant or natural gas plant any faster than you build a nuclear reactor. And alternative energy has its own limitations when it comes to implementing. So for the meantime, there’s really no room to deviate from using nuclear fuel.

As to the health prospects of the Japanese unfortunate enough to be around the reactors, we still don’t know what’s being flung into the air. I slaughtered the description of particles yesterday, confusing them, but then I was going from the top of my memory. Allow me to correct those errors here.

Alpha emitters, like uranium, have an incredibly short Linear Energy Transfer. This makes them both incredibly safe to be around, and incredibly dangerous to ingest. On their own, touching them will not generally harm you as the energy being given off will not penetrate the depth of your skin. If they get inside of you, however, a very large amount of energy can be delivered directly to your most vulnerable organs, causing great damage. Incidentally, their interaction distribution is also finite in length (I thought it was the gamma ray) which means that with 100% certainty, there exists a length after which no radiation will be left to interact (called a Bragg curve).

So, if uranium is presently being thrown inland to where the Japanese grow their food, or if any people are unlucky enough to breathe too much in, they’re pretty fucked.

However, we don’t even know that it is uranium fuel (as in uranium 235 or 234) that is being emitted. Consider:

1. Spent uranium (like that in the storage pool) has oxidized and contains much lower levels of uranium 234 and 235. Oxidized uranium is apparently more stable and not as easily absorbed by the body, (only .5% of oxides will be absorbed, as they are not water soluble). Uranium passes quickly through the digestive track, exiting the body in short time.

2. In general, oxidized uranium is safer than regular uranium. If the amount being kick up in the reactor is sufficiently small, then the extreme heat combined with oxygen may neutralize much of the danger in short time.

3. Readings of radiation levels have been well within acceptable Equivalent Dosage limits.

4. Readings may be from Beta particles or Gamma rays, which do not have the long term consequences of Alpha emitters, when released into the environment.

Combine that with the consequences from Chernobyl (way over estimated), the lack of quickly implemented substitutes (Europe doesn’t have a lot of choices at this moment), and the fact that almost half of all Americans surveyed have expressed support for nuclear power, and you’re looking at a good buying opportunity.

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It has been a busy March, no one will argue that.

Libya and Japan happening side by side has made for a nearly impossible to navigate landscape. Everyone’s at risk of taking damage here. However, hopefully things will abruptly settle down next week.

I definitely didn’t believe that the U.N. would actually move against Libya. However, with Qaddafi busy crushing the remains of the opposition, it’s not much of a move. Unless Qaddafi’s forces are completely dependent on air strikes, well…let’s just say they only have one town left.

Maybe Libyans will pull an Iraq on Qaddafi, effectively turning the country into a guerilla nation?

Meanwhile, the U.N. nuclear watchdog group raised the warning level of the Japanese nuclear situation today to 5, which I guess means core damage and potential long term consequences. While I don’t want to minimalize the seriousness of this, for the Japanese, in hindsight I think the bigger issue was the damage caused by the tsunami, not some radiation.

Just as an observation, people tend to overestimate the damage from small, complicated things, and ignore the big issues dangling in front of their faces. Ignore the nuclear issue, and you’ll see the U.N. scrambling to devalue the Yen, as the world needs the Japanese to be fine almost as much as Japan does.

U.S. debt yields spiking is bad news for just about everyone right now. I could see global markets pull back viciously if anything happens to the ability of the U.S. to raise money. Keep in mind, most of the world’s nations are holding our notes, and they all hold the dollar as reserves. U.S. credit speculation is not a headache anyone can afford right now, as it would flesh alive currency markets and governments alike. The resulting austerity and loss could in turn flesh consumers. Which in turn fleshes business. Even precious metals may take a temporary set back, as people scramble to settle debts (although that space would likely prevail).

Watch the communications among global leaders as they try to sort out a deal that doesn’t involve Japan selling treasuries. Ignore the rest of the headlines.

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I locked in the rest of my former positions, selling off all shares of MGM, TLP, and NRP.

I’m holding the new ones, AWK, AEC, CLP, and BG. Also, my silver position, obviously.

The problem for me is that cash is definitely not king, just a low priced bet. There’s no safe haven left, unless you’re willing to buy precious metals at these levels.

Update: I ran the numbers, and have about a 26% cash position in my portfolio. That corresponds to about a 20% cash position net, when you throw silver back into the mix.

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