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Taking Profits – 20% Cash Position

Alright, there’s no sense to go crazy. The markets are busy making levels that haven’t been seen in years. My accounts are topping out, now brushing up against their old highs. There’s no sense being dumb.

I went through the positions (except AEC and RGR), easing each one up, until I got the cash amount I needed; dispersed equally across the lot.

CLP announced numbers, and the earnings were very good. However, funds from operations were down, which disturbs me. It could be a simple timing issue, as they just sold a few apartments, and haven’t managed to reinvest the proceeds yet.

Management claims FFO will be almost 40% higher from where it is today by the end of 2013. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt for now.

Occupancy remains elevated in the multifamily space.

AEC reports February 5, I believe. I expect good things.

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It Is Absolutely Freezing

Michigan is making up for the unusually warm weather we’ve received this winter by dousing us into zero degree temperatures. Detroit was on emergency patrol yesterday, trying to shepherd as many of the homeless as possible into shelters, to avoid them freezing to death.

The markets are churning a little here. But I am loath to give lip service to the sort of unfounded pessimism that is gripping the cowards of Twitter. Believe the rumors of broken-ness and impending reversal to your own grave misfortune. Because we have higher yet to go.

I am pressing my luck and bets. RGR is selling off, but the stock was up 33% in a month. My other down position is CCJ, which is experiencing the typical terror-burdens that grip its share price at least once per 3-6 month run.

Precious metals continue to rebound, and are setting up for the next grand phase, in my opinion. This much currency manipulation will inevitably lead to long strides in the metals, particularly if things don’t break down. The recent “Gold Bug Bashing” we paid spectacle to in December is an annual tradition of sorts – not unlike a classic European festival. It happens every year, led by clowns and street performers. Not the kind of people you ever bother to consult with outside. Precious metal investors have been well vindicated in their thesis over the last 20 years – it’s not like that will be stopping now that the printing presses are stepping into high gear.

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Damage Erased Into The Close

Sticking with the larger theme over the past two weeks, my portfolio is melting higher into the close. AEC, CLP, CCJ, BAS, and RGR are all rushing up, either for profits or, in the case of Ruger, to close the day flat. Which, given Ruger’s last month, is really not a problem at all.

Physical silver has largely recovered from the Fed scare. The euro has also rebounded after Junker tried to talk it down.

My expectation is for higher prices. We are running, and only confirmation that the recovery is not happening will stop us. If you are betting against the indices, or are out of the market, I have bad news for you – that is months away.

You are stuck exactly where I was last year; having the right answers, but getting whipped anyway. It will come through for you in the end. But unlike 2011 and early 2012, this time I will be mocking you, sipping straight whiskey, and the pain will only end after I’ve locked in profits and position myself against the market.

So I am afraid you will be on the receiving end of jokes until at least March…

Expect treasuries to sell off as short sellers start trying to edge into that trade. The rising yield will only add to confirmation bias, bouying the stock markets higher. Both trades will fail in the Spring with bad prints going into summer.

The treasury bears will be killed at least this one last time. The markets will sell off again. I personally will be interested in building a short euro and short oil position sometime in the next two months.

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Bought Back RGR

Okay, I played it like a rookie, trading the open, but it won’t matter.

RGR is going back above $60, and will be making new highs in short order.

If it dips, I’d be willing to buy more, but only by offsetting elsewhere.

I’m running hot right now with no cash. And we are going higher.

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The Future Of RGR And Guns In America

HIGHER

The Obama gun control announcement was a complete non-issue for gun manufacturers. The Executive Orders, the only part of this that I ever feared, was stuffed full of common sense, passive actions that no one was objecting to in the first place.

And Obama acknowledged (which is always half the battle with him) that any attempt to restrict magazine capacity or ban “assault weapons” (read “any gun that looks scary”) must start in the Legislature.

Reid and Boehner are just FIGHTING with each other over who gets to start that process…

Oh, wait no they’re both punting.

Meanwhile, Obama’s actions, surrounding himself with children like a 20th century totalitarian on crack, before announcing this set of soft measures, have fired up the gun owners and political operatives who haven’t quite worked out yet that this isn’t a big deal.

The gun buying craze, which is pre-empting future government action that probably isn’t coming, will run voraciously until it exhausts itself. And ironically, a push to try and reign in weapons will have inadvertently put a lot more of them into circulation.

On a pullback, I will consider adding back RGR to my portfolio. By this time next year, it will be making new highs.

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Sold $RGR – +19%

Alright, level headed, there’s no sense for me to gamble here, betting that Obama (the stealer of Hope & Change politics, and reelected on a message of “Mitt Romney Is A Dick”) is not an extortionist.

I’m up 20% in less than a month. Time to take the gains.

I expect Obama has very little chance of passing any direct laws barring gun ownership of any variety. But using executive orders, he can still harrass the manufacturers endlessly – federal agents and our outrageous tax code can be at least as stifling to business as the mob.

Make no mistake, I expect RGR to go higher from here.

But the other thing I know is – no good comes from political slime surrounding themselves with children.

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