Another Purchase Of HCLP For $44.48

I added more HCLP for $44.48. Turmoil continues to roll through the oil and gas sector, and weak hands get strewn about.

As the saying goes, you can’t make an omelet without scrambling a few eggs.

Moody For No Reason

You would think I’d be in a good mood, presently up more than 1% with seven out of eight stocks green. But my mood is sullen and sulky and dark.

BAS has me in a silent furry, washing over the walls of the room. The cat finally could not stand my presence, which seemed to put her on edge; her tail swishing her way to light side steps about me while she dared whether or not to approach. Finally, caution got the better of her and she briskly toed out the door.

I want to hurt the people hurting BAS. I want them to suffer a long, drawn out demise. I want it to be humiliating.

It’s not enough for me to win, anymore. This selloff was so spectacularly stupid, I want those across the table from me to lose. We’re past the grounds for accepting victory. I want to salt the earth of the conquered, burn the heritage landmarks to ashes, then shoot the first born.

I don’t just want a massive victory. Now I also want it to be brutal.

Made Purchases of BAS, HCLP and VOC

I deployed 2.5% of my account to buy BAS at $12.61.

I put another 2% of my account into HCLP for $47.18.

I put another 3% of my account into VOC for $9.83.

Small margin balance. I am not just commenting when I say I am betting on oil. What we are experience in the oil market is not at all unusual. What is unusual is the sheer lengths that people have taken to sell oil stocks, with almost no evidence, other than a little correction in oil prices, that they are right.

Traders Playing BAS Are Out Of Their Minds

Okay, I’ve read the report from BAS and can comfortably say that those who are pressing BAS shares lower are mentally unhinged.

Today – October 24, 2014 – a prospective investor could purchase shares of BAS for about $13.60. BAS just reported earnings of $0.24 a share, up from $0.06 last quarter. At a current book value of just under $7; and even playing coy and considering BAS earnings of $0.15 a quarter from here forward; BAS is priced with a risk threshold of just 11 years.

At the most recent earnings of $0.24, that threshold drops to a theoretical breakeven point of just under 7 years.

BAS is priced perfectly reasonably, and that gets you exposure to a company that grew revenues an additional 10% in the last three months. Year over year, BAS is growing at a more than 20% clip.

BAS hit these numbers without even factoring in additional operation capacity that is being brought online later this year. Consider for example completion and remedial services, where as of September 30, 2014, Basic had roughly 413,000 HHP up from approximately 351,000 HHP at the end of the previous quarter and 292,000 HHP as of September 30, 2013 – that’s a 42% increase in capacity.

But oil prices are going to render that excess capacity worthless, right? Actually I defer to the CEO on this subject:

“We have not seen a reduction of activity by our customers due to the recent decline in oil prices, and none have indicated reductions in their 2015 growth plans. Early indications of these capital spending programs look to be slightly higher than 2014 levels. We will monitor utilization rates closely and should we see any meaningful pullback, we will react quickly as we have historically.”

So to recap; BAS is a company growing at a rate that makes it the envy of the party, which even excluding any additional growth is moderately priced, down 9% today because people are concerned, mind you, that maybe the industry might slow down (of which there is no indication whatsoever that BAS would be hurt disproportionately or even that that is happening).

Let me put this all into perspective for you. You could go out today and buy shares of BAS for the same price that you could get them last year when the company was losing $0.17 per share per quarter. The market is giving BAS no premium whatsoever for going from an unprofitable company, to a profitable one.

Jesus! – (punches a brick wall in his office) I hate it when the market does dumb shit like this!

I have just mentally budgeted an additional 10% of my asset allocation solely for the purchase of BAS shares until such time as I shall be either satisfied, or badly wounded.

Today, my account stands about 95% long. I am willing to take it to 105% on margin exclusively for the acquisition of BAS shares, not counting on any other purchases I might elect to make or future sales.

First buy order comes at $12.

Made Some Sales Of NADL

I sold off some of my NADL position for $5.96. I had added these shares on 10/15 for $5.43. This locks in a quick 9.8% gain on a small position sizing. It brings my cash position to 5%.

I’m sitting pretty here. So far, I dodged sizable losses by going to 45% cash in August. I also bought what looks like it could be the bottom in the oil and gas space, on margin to 115% of my account. I’ve since sold this bounce down to a 95% long position.

Plenty of my recent purchases are underwater, but I have a healthy profit margin baked into many of them as a whole. I also am closing back in on 10% gains for the year again with lots of room from the highs.

My expectation remains for more volatility and a small pullback ahead. I wouldn’t be surprised if this gets labeled a stock market crash after everything – that fits well with the frequency of market crashes in the US (albeit resting on a small data sample).

As for the oil and gas sector (of which I have a majority of my assets invested at this time) I think we’re near the end of the correction with perhaps room for one last shakeout.

If we crash lower, I will consider adding on margin again. But it will be a slow decision given I am basically fully invested.

All Of The Oil Losses Shall Be Regained

It will not happen immediately, surely. There will be more volatility and panic. But rest assured that the rout in the oil market will be unmade soon enough.

HCLP is already back to $54. You could have purchased shares for $40 just last week. The markets were scared, but then HCLP announced a 9% hike to its dividend. Now all is forgiven.

BAS is back to $15 from $11.50 last week.

ETP is above $65 again.

NADL is flirting with $6.

VOC has regained $11.

Those are big comebacks. I told you, the scare was not about a looming slowdown in the oil and gas space. It was more about frightening you into loosening your grip on the precious. Now that Jimmy’s friends have loaded up the trucks, we’re free to stop pretending like that Saudi Arabia rumor was ever anything more than the flapdoodle it was.

For the day I’m already up another 2%.

Another Purchase Of HCLP For $44.48

I added more HCLP for $44.48. Turmoil continues to roll through the oil and gas sector, and weak hands get strewn about.

As the saying goes, you can’t make an omelet without scrambling a few eggs.

Moody For No Reason

You would think I’d be in a good mood, presently up more than 1% with seven out of eight stocks green. But my mood is sullen and sulky and dark.

BAS has me in a silent furry, washing over the walls of the room. The cat finally could not stand my presence, which seemed to put her on edge; her tail swishing her way to light side steps about me while she dared whether or not to approach. Finally, caution got the better of her and she briskly toed out the door.

I want to hurt the people hurting BAS. I want them to suffer a long, drawn out demise. I want it to be humiliating.

It’s not enough for me to win, anymore. This selloff was so spectacularly stupid, I want those across the table from me to lose. We’re past the grounds for accepting victory. I want to salt the earth of the conquered, burn the heritage landmarks to ashes, then shoot the first born.

I don’t just want a massive victory. Now I also want it to be brutal.

Made Purchases of BAS, HCLP and VOC

I deployed 2.5% of my account to buy BAS at $12.61.

I put another 2% of my account into HCLP for $47.18.

I put another 3% of my account into VOC for $9.83.

Small margin balance. I am not just commenting when I say I am betting on oil. What we are experience in the oil market is not at all unusual. What is unusual is the sheer lengths that people have taken to sell oil stocks, with almost no evidence, other than a little correction in oil prices, that they are right.

Traders Playing BAS Are Out Of Their Minds

Okay, I’ve read the report from BAS and can comfortably say that those who are pressing BAS shares lower are mentally unhinged.

Today – October 24, 2014 – a prospective investor could purchase shares of BAS for about $13.60. BAS just reported earnings of $0.24 a share, up from $0.06 last quarter. At a current book value of just under $7; and even playing coy and considering BAS earnings of $0.15 a quarter from here forward; BAS is priced with a risk threshold of just 11 years.

At the most recent earnings of $0.24, that threshold drops to a theoretical breakeven point of just under 7 years.

BAS is priced perfectly reasonably, and that gets you exposure to a company that grew revenues an additional 10% in the last three months. Year over year, BAS is growing at a more than 20% clip.

BAS hit these numbers without even factoring in additional operation capacity that is being brought online later this year. Consider for example completion and remedial services, where as of September 30, 2014, Basic had roughly 413,000 HHP up from approximately 351,000 HHP at the end of the previous quarter and 292,000 HHP as of September 30, 2013 – that’s a 42% increase in capacity.

But oil prices are going to render that excess capacity worthless, right? Actually I defer to the CEO on this subject:

“We have not seen a reduction of activity by our customers due to the recent decline in oil prices, and none have indicated reductions in their 2015 growth plans. Early indications of these capital spending programs look to be slightly higher than 2014 levels. We will monitor utilization rates closely and should we see any meaningful pullback, we will react quickly as we have historically.”

So to recap; BAS is a company growing at a rate that makes it the envy of the party, which even excluding any additional growth is moderately priced, down 9% today because people are concerned, mind you, that maybe the industry might slow down (of which there is no indication whatsoever that BAS would be hurt disproportionately or even that that is happening).

Let me put this all into perspective for you. You could go out today and buy shares of BAS for the same price that you could get them last year when the company was losing $0.17 per share per quarter. The market is giving BAS no premium whatsoever for going from an unprofitable company, to a profitable one.

Jesus! – (punches a brick wall in his office) I hate it when the market does dumb shit like this!

I have just mentally budgeted an additional 10% of my asset allocation solely for the purchase of BAS shares until such time as I shall be either satisfied, or badly wounded.

Today, my account stands about 95% long. I am willing to take it to 105% on margin exclusively for the acquisition of BAS shares, not counting on any other purchases I might elect to make or future sales.

First buy order comes at $12.

Made Some Sales Of NADL

I sold off some of my NADL position for $5.96. I had added these shares on 10/15 for $5.43. This locks in a quick 9.8% gain on a small position sizing. It brings my cash position to 5%.

I’m sitting pretty here. So far, I dodged sizable losses by going to 45% cash in August. I also bought what looks like it could be the bottom in the oil and gas space, on margin to 115% of my account. I’ve since sold this bounce down to a 95% long position.

Plenty of my recent purchases are underwater, but I have a healthy profit margin baked into many of them as a whole. I also am closing back in on 10% gains for the year again with lots of room from the highs.

My expectation remains for more volatility and a small pullback ahead. I wouldn’t be surprised if this gets labeled a stock market crash after everything – that fits well with the frequency of market crashes in the US (albeit resting on a small data sample).

As for the oil and gas sector (of which I have a majority of my assets invested at this time) I think we’re near the end of the correction with perhaps room for one last shakeout.

If we crash lower, I will consider adding on margin again. But it will be a slow decision given I am basically fully invested.

All Of The Oil Losses Shall Be Regained

It will not happen immediately, surely. There will be more volatility and panic. But rest assured that the rout in the oil market will be unmade soon enough.

HCLP is already back to $54. You could have purchased shares for $40 just last week. The markets were scared, but then HCLP announced a 9% hike to its dividend. Now all is forgiven.

BAS is back to $15 from $11.50 last week.

ETP is above $65 again.

NADL is flirting with $6.

VOC has regained $11.

Those are big comebacks. I told you, the scare was not about a looming slowdown in the oil and gas space. It was more about frightening you into loosening your grip on the precious. Now that Jimmy’s friends have loaded up the trucks, we’re free to stop pretending like that Saudi Arabia rumor was ever anything more than the flapdoodle it was.

For the day I’m already up another 2%.

Previous Posts by Mr. Cain Thaler