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Well This Is Strange

Generally speaking, the market is leading my positions in tow exactly as you’d expect. My longs are down, silver is down, EUO is way up.

But for whatever reason, BAS is up more than 4% right now.

I’ve been staring at it all morning, and can’t seem to find any reason for it. I mean, I’m not complaining. But why now, of all times, did the stock find solid footing?

I’m open to any ideas here.

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AEC Provides What Matters

For all the analyst pessimism; for all the downtrodden complaints about cap rates and cash flow; for all the smirks that a company would ever bother “repaying what it owes” rather than leveraging up (more); AEC once again smashed earnings.

FFO gorged itself, plus >30%. Profits swelled. The operations of this multifamily improved considerably. And their flashy new credit rating shows off those improvements.

And through it all, occupancy held 96%.

It’s time for the REIT analysts to face the music – they were wrong. They were wrong about the company. They were wrong about the profitability of AEC being hindered by a paltry few percent in cap rates. They were wrong about an Exodus of renters leaving the market.

None of those things happened.

Or you can keep your head in the sand. I’ll just keep watching FFO build at a 30% clip, add at these ridiculous prices, and take a fat payday down the road.

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Can’t Hear You, Gun Controlists

I am sorry, but as I’m just too busy making fat stacks off of RGR right now, I’m having a little trouble hearing your moralistic, hopeless pleas. See, the Assault Weapons Ban is dead. Reid (The Great Gunman, as he is known amongst his friends) devoured it; taking it into his belly. And it died.

Now I’m sure Piers Morgan will keep running his fat mouth for at least another 6 months, talking to walls about the need for gun reform (we should be so lucky to have the violent crime rate of the UK…). But that’s just because Piers Morgan doesn’t have anything better to do.

I came across an article today waxing about the inevitable need for “civilized countries” to surrender their firearms. As if it were a part of evolution to a higher form of life. The paper’s logical conclusion? Better sell all your firearm stocks.

The winter breeze leaks through the window’s glass, creating an icy current across my cheeks. Standing before it, looking at the cloud cover outside, a smile creeps across my lips.

Your “Socially Responsible Investing” is horseshit. It’s an elaborate fraud, whereby you take the hard earned money of others and sink it into your wildest fantasies – just after scalping a healthy 4% in management fees off the top for yourself. You are silver tongued snakes, and I am a man with an axe. I live to split you in front of your “clients” (read “yuppy”).

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Thanks, BAS

Today’s trading action wouldn’t even be that bad, except it is. AEC, CLP, CCJ, RGR and silver prices are all holding up fairly well, actually. EUO is getting back to even, playing a good hedge.

And then there’s BAS.

BAS’ shareholders are without a doubt, the greatest collection of spineless vermin ever assembled in the Great History of Cowards. BAS shareholders make the French look valiant. They make pacifists look courageous. They make Hilary Clinton’s response to Benghazi seem positively plucky.

The stock is imploding 3% today, because Europe is back on the radar. Any jitters concerning the need for energy causes the stock to immolate; which is ironic, considering we already know this quarter is going to be awful. It would be practically chilling, if I hadn’t seen this happen at least a dozen times already.

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EURUSD Shall Send EU Into Cardiac Arrest

At almost 1.36, purchasers of EURUSD have completely lost grip with reality. Between US monetary policy and Japanese central bank response, carry trades have been caught in a torrential storm. If you were on the wrong side of those moves, your screams were lost to the cheers of equity bulls. However, the move is overextended, largely built on your back.

The problem is that there really is no economy, globally, that can afford to be the leaning post for the rest of the world. The assumption of global macro economics was always that the likelihood of all economies being in the same desperate condition at the same time was negligible. Unfortunately, as the economies became co-dependent, the assumptions of i.i.d. that made those statistical declarations possible withered away.

None of the economists noticed.

So now, here we are, and monetary policy can only be used to grab a quick upper hand. Ultimately, the brunt of utilizing the printing press ends right back on your country’s inhabitants. There’s no “superiorly positioned” exporter that can afford to give up a few points of growth.

So, as you watch the EURUSD climb, remember that each step of the move is unhinging the stability of the largest social wellfare state on the planet. With Germany, the keystone of Europe, flirting with recession, and Spanish and Italian debt barely under control (largely thanks to a renewed Japanese/US carry trade), the wellbeing of EU states is imperative.

But as I said, all countries have become interdependent. The same monetary response that has lowered Spanish/Italian bonds is also making EU exports uncompetitive. Any previously witnessed ECB policy response to this problem simultaneously makes debt yields increase. The only way to avoid the complimentary variance here is for the ECB to purchase EU debt directly.

Throughout the entire debate, this activity has been staunchly opposed by Germany, Finland and Austria. Will those countries cave? Or will they finally succumb to their ethnic roots, and become completely disaffected with EU authority?

Regardless, the euro disaster has not finished rolling yet.

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Shorting Euro – Bought EUO For $18.25

I opened a position in EUO for $18.25. This is a starter position, which I will add to every few weeks/months.

Remember, every time thus far that European authorities have put claim on “the end of the crisis being just in sight”, it has come back to haunt them.

They are playing a confidence game. The realities of the situation are different. Just below the surface, trouble is brewing.

Remember that.

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