UNG is continuing its strong run off the lows, now up 34% from the bottom. If you had managed to grab some of the individual months in futures, you’d be doing significantly better, up 70% or more.
And still, I have no interest in playing with natural gas.
There is a peculiar phenomenon I’ve observed first hand; people have this interesting habit of justifying purchases based on the most extreme and unlikely outcomes. They stare at the UNG chart and say coy things like “God if only I had thrown every penny I possess into UNG on April 19…”
Well, yeah…
But let’s keep things in perspective here. UNG is up a ton…now ONLY plummeting 50-60% from its price level in the beginning of 2011.
Now, why is natural gas rallying? Is it because power companies have successfully swapped their power generators to natural gas? Probably partially, yes.
But is it also very much a product of a reflex rally? You can’t argue no. And it is also likely a result of people like those I paraphrased saying “hey, let’s chase this trend.”
Be careful. We had an unusually hot summer, which has bordered on the unbearable. Those who would regularly have just left the windows opened were forced to rely on air conditioning. And now I’m reading the Farmer’s Almanac, and all the predications are saying that in most of the US, we’re looking at a warm winter.
The normal seasonality temperature trends are obviously not in play here.
In the presence of a warm winter, end demand for natural gas, in the form of electricity or heat, will go out the window. And then, it is very possible that spare storage capacity will become occupied like it was earlier this year. In such a condition, the front months of the natural gas futures curve would collapse again, trapping all natural gas longs in a heinous death.
I’m not saying short natural gas; that’s just as dangerous. If coal really does get replaced in energy production then natural gas is undervalued here. Do you want to watch UNG run back to $40?
I’m just saying: leave it alone.
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Another warm winter…great. The local ice rink never even froze last winter.
This would be more funny if it were indoors…
We didn’t get to skate much in Michigan last year. And I had to go to Canada to skii.
Wait, you’re from Michigan, right?
Yes. Last winter was beyond warm. I was hoping we would snap back this year and get some tundra action.
Any thoughts on DTE? I’m long but considering exiting and waiting for a dip.
Books look solid, on the contingency that I half expect the euro to explode at any moment, sending everything lower. DTE is a part of everything.
I completely agree; many smart people have lost a lot of money betting on nat gas. I might consider some exposure via energy companies, but a lot of money has been lost there, too, including mine.
Consider this, too. Last year we (central New Jersey) had a fairly warm winter, but still one or two good snowfalls. If the coming winter is another warm one, and the snowfall is low, our water reservoirs will not get filled, leading to water shortages next summer. So, is now the time to buy east coast water companies? And ice? What’s that?
(laughter) I don’t know about ice, but you can get a list of water companies pretty quickly.
If you’re looking at East Coast drought plays, then you’re talking about a shortage of fresh water. WTR specializes in desalination, if I remember.
That might be interesting.
I tried UNG a while back and got stopped out more than once. Gave up on that. My primary nat gas play has been CPK, a nat gas utility with high growth, which I’ve done very well with.