Take a look at the futures curve of natural gas, and then tell me;
tell me, how exactly you think you’re going to “nail” this bottom, Bob Pisani style;
go on…I’m waiting.
If you’ll notice that futures contracts for delivery of natural gas are 50% higher just two months out, I would tell you you’ve earned a cookie. If you would say that they’re more than double about three years out, I’d actually consider shipping one to you.
This is obviously a storage issue. There is obviously not enough storage space to hold all the gas they’re pumping out of the ground.
So explain to me how you’re loading up on all that cheap GAS and are going to double or triple your money from the $2 spot price.
You want to know who’s going to “nail” the natural gas trade? Industry insiders. Their SEC handlers. And US Senators.
People who work for one of the companies that are rushing to expand storage capacity and have a pretty good idea, within a two month time frame, of when that capacity is going to come online, will be able to load up on natty, maybe at $0.
The rest of us are not “nailing” anything. If you buy a 1 month gas future, tell me;
TELL ME!
Where the fuck do you plan on putting the gas?
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Earth-bound zeppelins
there is a little company that can help you
NKA
(nat gas)if you fart in church, u sit in your own pew.
What about oil??
I don’t watch CNBS anymore during the trading day. Are they all hot on Natty? Where have they been for the last 9 trading days and the over 20% move? Useless drivel. FD: long $UNG short $UNG calls.
If you really want to lose $ go for the coal.
Or solar. At least coal should be around in 10 years time.
Nat gas price analysis: http://liqwave.blogspot.com/2012/04/about-natural-gas.html
You shouldn’t be analyzing the $2 level, because you can’t buy and hold it for 10 years, like you’ve suggested in the article.
The forward months – $3, $4, $5…is where that discussion can be had. But you are no more buying and holding natural gas at $2 than you are buying and holding sunlight for $2.
Good pointy there Cain!
“Where the fuck do you plan on putting the gas?” I, Mr. Thaler, personally, have no idea. However, I am sure Mr. Aubrey Mcclendon has some idea cooked up (coked up?). LOL. You sir are a literary genius, when you are not suffering fools! The only thing that gets me slightly nervous is the fact that you are perfectly logical. Last time that happened, we got face-ripped with “that student loan thing”. Best of luck to you sir.
Save that this time, I’m not touching natty at all.
Well, maybe this summer. Maybe…
My longs are now 3 for 3 in the game of earnings. And not bullshit beats like the rest of the market is used to.
CCJ, AEC, and CLP have CRUSHED ESTIMATES where it counts, by 20-30%
ccj to infinity.
This trade has been bugging me for the last few weeks. Whenever an industry starts pricing in going to zero, you quickly lose methods of playing it.
Here’s my current thought. If this rally fizzles out and we see a summer bleed (sub $1.50?), I’m thinking half a position in UNG and simultaneously sell calls 2 years out at a 100% gain and sell puts 2 years out at a 50% discount from my cost basis. Worse case scenario you end up with a full position in a crappy ETF stuck in contango and you sell calls all the way to zero…
It’s sad when that’s the most reasonable option I can come up with.
Best case scenario is if it has just bottomed and I missed it. I can put it out of my mind for 6 months at which point we may be able to start looking at individual companies again.
you are very right..to a degree.”IF”, we are to transition for transportation,natty needs to stay right were it is.otherwise how would we be able to shrug off gasoline if we are to prosper, in any way shape or form. ALL of our needs,and wants would be naught without transports,period. everything we have was brought by truck.eliminate the highest cost for transport, and the price of goods fall, considerably.going forward,knowing what happened with steel when the japanese flooded our shores with cheap subsidized steel,the chinese are doing the same thing,but only with labor. if we can implement certain shit like T bone pickins advocates,then maybe the american consumer would have true relief, and we can tell china to go piss up a rope………
$FCG. $UNG – if you play it then you are a fool, sorry. There is no storage of gas. They are shutting in the wells.
I plan to put the gas in my car, and drive forever.
despite what anyone says nat gas looks bullish, technically speaking. I didn’t pull out the hank hill for nothing.
Cheniere and teekay look bullish