Between Beats

I’m running hot at work right now, as my pile of papers keeps pushing higher on my desk.  Sadly, this has relegated me to a position of inaction on this most hallow of websites.  I’ve been able to jump on for just ten or twenty minutes during office hours, which has very much limited my ability to mock Greek bailouts, Chinese accounting, and other things of that nature.

Such a pity…

But that has not been much of a problem, as for most of yesterday’s news cycle, I struggled to find anything of interest to me.  So maybe it’s good I haven’t had time on my hands, no?

The 9^th floor is quiet as I type into the hours.  Yesterday I worked about ten of them before giving in to fatigue and going home.  I’ll probably do at least that tonight.

In the markets, my opinion has not changed.  I continue to feel that this run up is unsubstantiated and will give way to collapse.  When that will occur, I cannot say.  Thus, I remain short oil and energy through SCO and ERY, which have been performing admirably of late, terribly of…any other time frame.

On the long side, I continue to hold AEC, CLP, CCJ, physical silver, and a small cash position. 

The multifamily REITs continue to perform resiliently, despite calls for them to suddenly drop utilization (which hasn’t happened).  However, they have so far struggled to really break out.  Hopefully, as housing starts to bottom, their earnings will begin to surpass all expectations to the upside.

This being said, I am wary of AEC, and perhaps CLP, and am playing very close attention to developments with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  According to AEC’s own risk assessment in their SEC filings, they believe they are impacted by cheap financing that originates from the quassi-private entities.  CLP is better funded than AEC, but may have similar if lesser problems.  I don’t believe that Fannie or Freddie will actually be curtailed by the government.  But, if Republicans should begin to have a fair wind at their backs, I would perhaps rethink holding AEC definitely; CLP maybe.

Finally, I took a miniscule position in TVIX last week, which is up more than 7%.  This corresponds to gains in my portfolio of about .028% net.  Contain your applause, please…

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