How the shit is gasoline not part of core inflation? What in this country is even produced without the price of oil attached to it?
You thinking of walking those hand knitted sweaters from Tennessee to Chicago? You know, the ones you made out of that wool that came from those sheep which live off the grass in your yard you don’t mow.
Economists and banks desperate for more free money seem to be getting aroused on the prospects of lower meat and vegetable costs, since they have equated lower prices to free dollar showers.
But let’s be honest; saying the cost of meat is down isn’t really that useful. Logistics matter. Where is all this cheap meat?
You go tell some starving kids in Ethiopia about all that cheap food we have in the developed world. Or maybe let some freezing asshole in Siberia in on all the free natural gas we have here in the U.S. See how appreciative they are.
And every component of logistics in driven by the cost of…wait for it…fuel. The cost of oil matters to the real costs of goods…that’s gasoline and diesel prices.
Tap water may be free in Europe but, looking at their gas prices, free water isn’t coming soon to a Sahara near you, if you follow me.
Which is all that really matters. It’s why Bernanke has been talking a big game, yet stays glued to the sidelines. He can pretend like costs are down all he wants, but when the whistle blows, we’ll see how that philosophy works out, now won’t we?
Close your eyes and imagine this; a human sized gas can with a face and eyes, holding a shocked/terrified expression while a commodity trader holds a gun to its “head.” You can imagine Bernanke there too, with his arms raised to the sky, while he exasperatingly tries to talk the gun-wielding dollar-shorting maniac down.
That’s what I would draw for you, if I didn’t suck at drawing caricatures.
That’s where things are right now. It’s why QE3 isn’t coming. And it’s why nobody should care that there’s subdued inflation everywhere but where it counts.
But hey, you doubt me? Go buy some of that awesome, cheap crude oil they have stored in Cushing, OK. You can always sell it in Chicago or New York, after all. You know where that’ll get you?
Stuck in the middle of fucking Oklahoma.
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A game
lol – I have to hold myself back daily from commenting on your rants.
I’ve known alot of people like you over the years, they complain about how the system is corrupt and rigged instead of accepting it and profiting from it.
Of course gas is inflation, but if the Fed doesn’t calculate it into its policies, then wtf good is it to insist that it should be included. Do you think if you complain enough they will change their ways?
No, I think that if I complain, Bullish, it gives me something to do while I wait for everybody else to realize:
1) QE3 isn’t coming
2) European recession is going to impact US earnings
3) China will not avoid a hard landing
4) Gasoline and oil prices are too high and demand destruction is going to create a supply glut
Observations that you do not like, or do not fit with your world view, are not complains, merely observations.
Cain, it’s not like gas prices aren’t factored into policy decisions, regardless of what the numbers say. So, government calculated inflation is pretty fucked. What’s the alternative? EPI aka the gas index?
That being said, if it was factored into core inflation it would probably be accurate to the point of rendering all other readings of inflation as moot. I think we only have other readings due to the fact that gas isn’t factored in.
Yes, it is factored into policy decisions. They might as well not publish any index numbers, for all the good they don’t do. Saying “prices are up .1%”…what fucking prices? Which ones?
Garbage statistics.
But what really annoys me is, these numbers get published, then I get to spend 6 months in the red while some little fuckers slam the buy orders betting against the dollar.
For the love of shaves assholes, STOP the negativity and pessimism!!!!! You and Bleir have cost people A LOT of money… Shameful..
That’s a fucking cop out argument, Vegas. I haven’t cost anyone money, because I don’t invest for anyone but myself.
If you’re pissed that you don’t like what I’m telling you, tough shit.
I would point out that I haven’t even been bearish for a year yet. I’ve only been down for 6 months.
That’s nothing, in the grand scheme of things.
I’ve seen this play out enough times now to know how this goes.
The market will roll over hard, Bleir and myself will be fucking heros for four or five months.
Then after we’ve had our fun and commodity traders have been thrust onto spikes, Bernanke will print some money to delever the rest of the system, and I get to hear from the crowd again how “terribly wrong” I was.
This isn’t a fucking novelty.
Cain is right.. that is a bullshit argument! MCT and Bleir are not responsible for anyone here’s money, so how the fuck could they cost “people a lot of money”? If all you want to hear Vegas Trader is Cheering, tune into CNBC all day and you and Cramer can have butt raping BooYaa parties everyday. People read these blogs to get all the opinions.. not just the “It’s all Green from here on out boys” you can get anywhere
as i was reading, i was thinkin about that commercial with the michllin tire guy fighting the gas pump.lol
Cain goddammit!! Start screaming the BALTIC DRY INDEX or something..
“Close your eyes and imagine this; a human sized gas can with a face and eyes, holding a shocked/terrified expression while a commodity trader holds a gun to its “head.” You can imagine Bernanke there too, with his arms raised to the sky, while he exasperatingly tries to talk the gun-wielding dollar-shorting maniac down.”
I hold that even though there’ll be no QE3, the Clam will find some way to goose inflation along because he’s more worried about deflation than inflation.
That in mind, is it wrong that I imagined the scene like one out of Blazing Saddles: with Bernanke being *both* the human gas can *and* the commodity trader with the gun, pointing it at his own head, saying “one more step and the economy gets it just before election day!”
Lol
Mr. Thaler,
1) QE3 isn’t coming – AGREE
2) European recession is going to impact US earnings – MAY BE, MAY BE NOT
3) China will not avoid a hard landing – YES THEY WILL AVOID IT – THEY CAN CONTROL THEIR LANDING UNLIKE THE REST OF THE FREE WORLD
4) Gasoline and oil prices are too high and demand destruction is going to create a supply glut – I DON’T THINK SO, DEMAND IS ALREADY LOW BUT US ECONOMY IS IMPROVING.. IF YOU BELIEVE TALKING HEADS 🙂
Opinions vary and can be wrong, stock market is always right – stay with a tape, just use caution…
MR.P
3) Why does everyone I meet tell me the Chinese can control their entire economy, when we know damn well that we in the US cannot?
Do you honestly believe that the Chinese form of government is that much superior to our own?
US form of Government is too similar to Chinese when it comes to the economy control, but they do it better, simply because they have more experience in economy control.
Sometimes I think Obama and Ben both graduated from the same Chinese university, studying Das Kapital.
Did you see the Bloomberg article this morning saying that local business and GDP number through 2011 were just being made up?
If that equates to Chinese control, then I concede your point.
If you think the Chinese are actually managing their economy and producing all these goods and services, then we are never going to agree.
I am pretty sure their numbers are made up, but as far as i can see it is good enough for the market… and I am in it to make money… so if Chinese numbers help me to do it I am ok with them 🙂
lol I can’t contest that point. Just watch the sway of public opinion.
Because unlike the USA, China’s main concern is not corporate profits. They have to do everything possible to keep a huge population base quiet and under control.
???
If Chinese companies aren’t making profits, then what’s the point in investing in them?
You asked why the Chinese would be able to control their economy when we cannot. Your original question and my answer had nothing to do with investing in Chinese companies. Personally I wouldn’t touch them.
This week it was announced that four major financial institutions failed the Fed’s stress test.
This dooms day scenario staged a 12% unemployment rate and a 50% drop in the stock market. You might want to ask yourself why the Federal Reserve would even conduct such a test unless they thought there was a possibility of this coming to pass.
? !!
Or because the Fed, like every government organization (quasi-public, or however they phrase it, is still public in my eyes) love to waste time/money. It also makes it appear to the masses as the fed is proactively protecting our economy from the evil that is banks and wall street (argument a peer brought against me in my portfolio management class last week, no joke).
What I don’t understand, and perhaps Cain can articulate, is how the fed chose their inputs. It would seem that they should have at least released a sensitivity analysis with varying levels for each input so we could see what is actually driving their models.
Until the Fed gives more insight into said models and their assumptions, I will discount them as worthless.
I’m not positive, but my own guess is that the purpose of this test is more to try and rebuild confidence in the US banking sector. I think there are so many assumptions built into such a model, that it’s more or less devoid of reality.