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Market Discussion

Gas Up Your Smelter

molten

I’m stepping away from my treasure horde here for a minute in order to evade the ennui of large numbers. There’s only so many bricks of bullion you can stack before you need a Pappy and an Advil, after all.

I wanted to revisit my old Bluegrass friend, NGAS Resources, Inc. [[NGAS]] — of Lexington, KY. Remember this chart from a couple of weeks back?

ngasdaily

Well things haven’t changed much, save for the turn of the coil for one more opportunity towards advancement.   You can see the running along the 20-day MA since my last post, but today we closed above the 200-day MA for a second time ($2.31).   Here’s today’s close:

ngasdaily1

Given that NGAS has turned north again, and that we are experiencing a rising market with a dropping dollar along with rising oil price, I think the next days may reveal another opportunity to add as the days grow chillier, and the leaves colour and drop.

I will address additional entries in The PPT with the cohort there.   Right now I’m at a “one-third” position, and plan to add at least one more third in the coming days, if price unfolds as I think it will.

Best regaurds (sic).

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Staring At Goats

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS-jutv-rh0 450 300]

The New Official iBC Theme Movie?

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No, this is no well-deserved reference to the Red Sawx or the Twinkies, or even the misbegotten Mets.

It’s what I’ll be doing to pass the time until Christmas.   I’ll be staring at goats, shepherds and large carafes of homemade plum wine.

Because I’m looking at the Jacksonian Core Portfolio here — up 44.7% since May 1st and going higher — and I’m saying… why would I want to screw up a good thing, ovah heah, fretting about short term nary and sally?

I just got back from checking out all their daily charts, and… you know what?  They’re all overbought almost to a man.

Normally, I’d  be all “where’s my exit” on stuff like that, but… you know what?  See above.  

Goats, shepherds… plum wine til Christmas.   Abide.

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[For those of you who were asking in the last thread about “WTF are these Jacksons?”   I have listed them and their various monthly and “since May 1st”  returns, including possible pullback entry points.  BTW — Don’t even think of following me into these positions, as your extremities will undoubtedly blacken, and soon fall off at some embarrassing time.]
Name/     %   Portfolio Portfolio     
Ticker 2-Oct 9-Oct Change   Value Impact   Comments
ANDE  $        33.76  $        35.86 6.22%    $           10,827 0.40%   Next stop $39-
EGO            10.60            12.02 13.40%    $           11,263 0.90%   Broke $11.70, good rebuy on a dip.
GDX            42.76            48.29 12.93%    $           14,616 1.13%   $45.38 is 20 day for pullback possibility.
GLD            98.37          102.84 4.54%    $           11,827 0.32%   Pullback to $102?
IAG            13.25            14.61 10.26%    $           18,015 1.11%   Already taking off again here…
MON            74.67            75.77 1.47%    $           12,021 0.11%   Bounced off 50% fib retrace @ $73.50
PAAS            21.54            25.82 19.87%    $           15,508 1.85%   Broken out, look for touch @$25-ish
RGLD            43.29            48.48 11.99%    $           13,396 0.96%   Hit $48.65 target, forming handle here….
SLV            15.82            17.44 10.24%    $           14,167 0.87%   Overbot slightly.  $16.46 is 20 day.
SLW            12.07            13.86 14.83%    $           13,463 1.20%   Pullback to $13.25?
SSRI            19.55            22.44 14.78%    $           13,054 1.16%   $21.50 pull back before takeoff?
TBT            43.40            46.00 5.99%    $             9,163 0.33%   Near target @ 38.2% fib =$47.20
TC            11.37            12.80 12.58%    $           10,536 0.79%   Pullback to $12.30 for purchase
TCK            26.26            31.36 19.42%    $           30,259 3.52%   Officially BTFO.  Target $40-
Cash (000)  $        0.00  $      12.64 0.01%    $         12,644 0.00%   Same
AVG (weekly)   9.33%    $       210,759 14.66%    
AVG (monthly)   5.67%   Actual cash       
AVG (inception)   44.65%   on cash return 40.51%    

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UPDATE:  In case you need the Jackson’s “daily look” — like we’ve got with the Pat Boone Page, I’ve listed them here:

The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]]

Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]]

[[GDX]]

[[GLD]]

IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]]

Monsanto Company [[MON]]

[[PAAS]]

Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]]

[[SLV]]

Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]]

Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]]

[[TBT]]

Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]]

Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]]

And don’t forget about “honorary Jackson” Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , which I consider “one of the crew.”

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Sorry for the Tardy…

Tardy

Yer Late, ya bastid!
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Things have been ripping around here, as the overstretched band of “no bidness” that plagued us for the first six months of the year has snapped back with a vengeance to “too much bidness.”

I am not crapping you, we are hiring right now, as we just hauled in about five new deals in the last month.   Now I’ve got to actually execute them which is going to stretch me thin all the way into Christmas.

Luckily, my portfolio is largely set.   I will nacker about here and there, but you know my thesis of “Baby $HUI to the Christmas Tree,” ovah heah, and I shall not stray much from it.

Right now, one of my favourite plays — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] looks to be ripping into the close, and the price of silver ($17.71 right now)  is hardly wavering even as the price of gold takes a mini-step back ($1,049.00).

Remember that Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] target fibonacci extension I put up a few weeks back after it’s breakout?  I said it would hit $10.70, remember?  Well, that worked out well, as it’s there and past, and I would look at that $10.70 area as a nice place to pick up some more shares of ANV, which is quickly becoming one of my favourites (sic)  — Jacksonian even.

Last, my beloved, if neglected Jacksonian stalwart, [[TBT]] .    I still own a metric shit tonne of this, even though I sold a bunch in the high 50’s some months back, thinking I’d buy back on a retrace. 

 Well, I was waiting for it to hit that $44.90 fibonacci level we had discussed, and it breached even that  so I said “ok, I’ll wait.”

I should have just bot some there, or at least averaged down.   Now, I’m doing a bit of a chase, and will attempt to refill my love gourds on a subsequent (hoped for) pullback to the $45.50’s area.

That is all for now, but if you want to discuss specific charts, I can throw them up this weekend at your request.  

Back to the salt mines.

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Night of the Window Salesman

glengarry_glen_ross-8

Apologies for this late quick note, but I just spent the good part of a seventh circle of  hellish evening with a window replacement salesman who could’ve given Shelley Levine of Glengarry Glen Ross fame a run for his money.

This poor schlub… he so wanted the sale…

But I was sniffy and aloof, understanding yet askance, nodding but nodding off.    

I sell large things for a living you see, while not entertaining you all with picks of rising value.    

So I felt bad.   A little.  But was more peeved at the Mrs. Jake for setting up such a fiasco after I had spent the whole day in meetings, the last of which was sprung on me late and took me to 7:30 in the evening.

She didn’t know, of course, and I didn’t remember our “date,” so it was a sour-faced revelation for us all when I arrived home to see Mr. Steak Knives sitting at my kitchen table, readying  to parlay.

After much education on triple pane argon and krypton gas filled what-you-may-have-its, I sent him away with no agreement, despite his imprecations of  “promotional sale” and his obsequious (and transparent) appeals to the “showcase quality” of our home (I knew better of course).

I did promise to do some due diligence however, and so I put it to the audience:   Have any of you any experience with this product?  I won’t name the brand as I don’t want to bias things… but he was selling triple pane insulated “top of the line” replacement windows that could stop Superman in his tracks due to their krypton gas quotient. 

Your recommendations or “insider knowledge” from past summer construction jobs are much appreciated.

As for tonight’s “study,” I leave you with my “big picture” thesis of the Exxon Mobil Corporation [[XOM]] symmetrical triangle forming here, which looks to be finishing by November 24th, at the latest.   I really think this chart will forecast the market… as XOM and the earl based commodities go, so goes the market — taurine or ursine.

xomweek

 

God bless you and your set of promotional steak knives, one and all.

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Addendum — watch also for [[PTM]] tomorrow.  Platinum is heating up along with its more popular brothers.  Diana Shipping Inc. [[DSX]] also looks nice again.   Is it transporting silver ingots?

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In Smaug’s Lair

smaug

Great day for Pat Boone and friends… Pat looking on warmly with that glint in his eye, as opposed to the gleam he reserves for bad days, when his guitar strings break and he ends up beating Debbie and the wife.

Smaug’s Lair of The Hobbit’s late-chapter fame is a good metaphor for this market, if you are like myself and need metaphors to get you through the day like a nice semolina bread and head cheese sandwich at lunch.     The old treasure dragon from the Tolkien classic  signifies the danger implicit in this precious metal bull, and yes, maybe the greed, too.

So let’s try to remain cautious and harvest prudently when the corn grows high, whether by selling calls or taking our positions back a bit.  No need to be piggish and end up as dragon droppings amidst the mithril.

Only one chart tonight, and maybe tomorrow I’ll give you some new picks to augment my Jacksonian rockets (The Jackson Port ended today at 38% despite loss positions in both Monsanto Company [[MON]] and our ultra-hedge [[TBT]] ).

Tonight is a silver night, however, as my seven silver horses [[AGQ]] , [[CDE]] , [[EXK,  Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] , [[PAAS]] , Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] and Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] were up a combined average of 9.19% today.  

These miners will continue to perform as silver tries to catch up with already “BTFO” gold, which broke to new highs today.   As you can see with [[SLV]] , there’s still a lot of room for silver to grow up in this cycle:

slvweek

More later tomorrow after yet another morning meeting.   Remember — be cautious with the sleeping dragon, lest he make a tasty canape out of your chitinous carapace. 

Ciao.

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Get in the Smelter!

dwarves

Jake Pours A Special Treat for the Bears

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You can tell by the twinkle in his eye that old Pat Boone’s having a special day.      And so are tthe loyal Jacksonian JakeGint Brigade.

Gold is now in new all-time high territory @ $1041.70 an ounce, having smashed the former $1,033 ceiling with gusto this morning, as our friend, Mr. Dollar plummets once again to it’s flash-paper grave.  

In the meantime, silver is the purchase of the century as it still lags gold in targetting and achieving it’s old $20+ highs.    Silver is still one-sixtieth the price of gold as well, compared to more historic ratioss of 40:1.

 I’m still targetting a $21.95 price for [[UUP]] , and we may break to new lows from there, thanks to swarthy men wearing bedsheets and mis-treating their camels half-way across the world.

How dare they object to our running off sheets and sheets of green paper with Ben Franklin’s visage on it and exchanging said specie for their greasy petrol?   Don’t they know what attractive wall covering that shade of grey-green can provide?

Not to mention window-treatments.

Not to get all “stuffed-in-the-gut” about how all my dollar defense dragons are tearing ass on this market and making investments in TV-tubes and natty gas service companies look like so much Baltic Avenue rowhouse property (we have Mr. Boone for that purpose  anyway), I’d like to point out some exaggerated gorillas whose armpits you may wish to shave at some point today…

(That means “take some fiat off the table” for the metaphorically challenged)

Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] will likely come back to it’s breakout at $13.35 or so.

Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] is a crazy stock and will likely meet stiff resistance at $5.00.

Wait for a break of $21.96  to get back on [[CDE]] , otherwise, it should fill that gap again at $20.41

Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] has an optimal entry at $21.75, but otherwise it should get held up at $23.25 or so for the near term.

[[PAAS]] is “BTFO,” but will likely return to it’s old high of $24.81 before heading to new pastures.

Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] will be BTFO at $3.71, but is a buy on a pullback to $3.38.

That’s enough free fritatas for now, pikers.   Sign up for The PPT to get the full-fire hose effect of instant portfolio nutrition.

Off to commiserate with mountain dwarves and other horders of glittering treasure piles.

Slante.

 

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