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Market Discussion

So What’cha What’cha What’choo Want?

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzaFGMQRBfs 450 300] 

Nominated for “Best All Time Song with Worst Video of Prospect Park, circa 1991”

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To gauge for yourself  if I’m having an “approachable day” or not, you can now repair  to the wholly representative Pat Boone Metal Page  for a safety-conscious review.

If things are bright green over there– like a Springtime Shamrock Shake Party at Ralph Nader’s house in Galway — you’d be able to walk up and hand me an Obama hymnal with little chance I’d even go thin-lipped on you,  never mind laying you low with a carotid chop to your whoreson neck as you’d fully deserve.

However, if things are as violent a red over there as Pammie Anderson’s tuchus at a Tommie Lee “bring-your-own-cricket-bat” lingerie party  you might want to be a bit more circumspect.    Silent, even.  

Because as much as I may hide it here, with my cool equanamity and Mad-Men inspired pork-pie hat, I’m all a-scramble inside when my beloved metal friends do the snake dance of volatility.

And these strumpets have been volatile lately, as strumpets are wont.  

On days like these, however, the addition of account zeroes to my tally only makes me look upon these assets with more fondness and father-like mirth.   Tonight, I promise you I shall chuckle to myself as I stuff my certificates into silk pillows and hide them in my upstairs attic, next to Aunt Ida’s skeleton, where the “revenooers” will never find them.

Don’t get any ideas, whoresons, she was a 40-year Anatomical Sales Associate for Barr Labs before retiring to Winter Garden.  She left me that sample as a wedding present.

Today’s coin banquet included the Brutish Doubler, [[AGQ]] ,  the loverly [[CDE]] , the timid yet precocious [[EXK]] and the schizophrenic girlfriend of silver miners — Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] .  

If you’re sensing a pattern that “junk” silver is heating up, well, give yourself a pre-’64 Washington quarter.  But just one, as they’re dear to me.

Even the more traditional Jacksonian silvers did well today, however, and you should be A-lways B-e C-losing” on Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , [[PAAS]] and Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] like that fat-ass Alec Baldwin closes in on a  jelly doughnut that’s rolled off the catering cart.

On the gold side, the price of gold was up $14  (1.4%) today, (as opposed to volatile silver’s 2.8% increase), and the juniors showed that there might be more to come, with New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] and Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] , Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , Gold Fields Limited (ADR) [[GFI]] and new-comer pocket Hercules Nevsun Resources (USA) [[NSU]] tearing it up today.

Non precious, non-Jackson holdings that did well today also include [[CAR]] , Amkor Technology, Inc. [[AMKR]] and The PPT favourites (sic) [[ENTR]] and Trident Microsystems, Inc. [[TRID]] .

All in all, it was a day where I’d say I’ve earned myself a spanking new sheepdog, or a well-combed Lhaso Apso, in the least.

I predict more volatility and personal moodiness on my part, so don’t forget to check the signs before approaching.   I’m still saying we ride the Jetson Rocket Sled into Christmas and feast on bull in the New Year.  

Check your chinstrap, and let’s get going here.  Best to you all, but see you lucky ones in The PPT.

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In a Metal Mood (Say No More)

PAtBoone

(Ain’t talkin’ ’bout love!)

Ultra Silver Pro Shares [[AGQ]]

Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]]

Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]]

Banro Corp. [[BAA]]

 

(My Love is rotten to the core…)

Citigroup Inc. [[C]]

 

(Ain’t talkin’ ’bout love……)

Coeur d’ Alene Mining Co. [[CDE]]

Powershares Double Silver ETN  [[DBS]]

Powershares Double Gold Long ETN [[DGP]]

Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]]

Corriente Resources Inc.  [[ETQ]]

Endeavour Silver Co. [[EXK]]

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF [[GDX]]

 

(Just like ah told you be-foah, be-foah, be-foah!)

Gold Fields Limited (ADR) [[GFI]]

SPDR Gold Shares [[GLD]]

Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]]

Hecla Mining Company [[HL]]

IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]]

NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]]

New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]]

 

(Hey! Hey! Hey!)

Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]]

Pan American Silver Corp. [[PAAS]]

Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]]

Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]]

Seabridge Gold, Inc. (USA) [[SA]]

 

(Hey! Hey! Hey!)

iShares Silver Trust  [[SLV]]

Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]]

Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]]

Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]]

Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]]

 

(Ain’t talkin’ ’bout love……)

(Ain’t talkin’ ’bout love……)

(Ain’t talkin’ ’bout love!!!)

(fade out)

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOkZ2zhCx5I 450 300]

Aside — if you weren’t such a piker, you’d join The PPT and catch me pounding out these winners like freshly minted doubloons on a daily basis…. tsk! tsk!

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Checking in on Baby $HUI Again

neverunderestimate1

Let the above visial metaphor serve you as caution both political and market-noteworthy.  And I would rather put the emphasis, if I could, less on any proposed lack of intelligence and more — as in this particular case — on a plethora of emotional overload.

I think we’ve all been conditioned since the dawn of the Modern Era to be less disciplined about our emotions and how we allow them to guide our better judgment.  Therefore I don’t derisively dismiss those who would choose a relative unknown, a blank slate — a cypher, even — over “more of the same” after years of increasingly partisan turmoil, economic upheaval and yes, war.  I don’t even calumnize those who would, with less than optimum due diligence, usher such a person in under the auspices of emotionally laden, even heartfelt notions of “change” and “renewal.”

However,  I do applaud those for whom the fugue is beginning to lift. 

A similar sense of euphoria has been brought up short recently, this time in our gold and silver metals and corresponding miners markets.  Despite my many assurances that the treacherous bull of the last nine years would careen about tossing off weak adherents like so many loosely tied marionettes, many are still appalled and even frightened by the pullback we’ve experienced over the last week.

That, however, is an example of the very psychosis of secular bulls.

Like mad men at the mazurka, secular bulls will make you dance for every penny, and some days you will dance your feet raw.  Sell calls, my friends — or take some positions down to a more manageable level if it’s worth your good sleep.  God knows, some nights it’s worth mine. 

Note my [[$HUI]] chart below for clues:

hui_weekly

We may bounce here at the $400 breakout, or we may take the $HUI all the way back to the 61.8% fib retrace at just below $380. I am prepared for both scenarios, and I would suggest you gird your loins for both as well.  As for market specific stocks, I like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] tomorrow, off a bounce of the 50-day, which has served as strong support for a while.   That would be approximately $8.73.

My best to you all.

_____________________

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One to the Kisser

shamwhap

Don’t let anyone ever tell you bear markets are tough. At least bears are conditioned for rapid snap-backs and so set tight stops and get the heck out of Dodge when the inevitable reversals come.

But try trading a true, secular bull if you want some real whiplash action. The older these things get, the more ornery and difficult to ride.

Take for instance the gold and silver plays we’ve visited in the last week. You wouldn’t know you were in the midst of a nine-year secular bull with the wall of worry we’ve been climbing since our original early month break over $1,000 in POG.

And yet, despite the pullback under $1,000, there’s no question we are still in a strong bull in the precious metals, and the dollar is still in a death spiral, despite it’s launch today. Still, I lightened on some leverage today, as a result of [[SLV]] dropping below it’s long term 61.8% fib at $16.04. Specifically, I got rid of the 40 $9 strike December Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] calls I’d bought a few days earlier. I’m not sure silver will stay under $16 here, but prudence forced my hand on this one.

For that, I’ll never forgive Prudence.

Still loaded to the gills on the precious plays, and gold looks like it’s remaining close to the $1,000 mark even as the price of silver plunges down near $16, a significant level, I believe, as that makes gold over 62x the price of silver. That can’t last in this market.

I am going to continue to sit on my hands as I’ve been doing, and work the margins for the most part. If you feel you must trade, I’d focus on the more volatile plays, like IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] which will likely experience a pretty frightening bounce here in the next two or so days.

For Prudence and her crew, I like [[GDX]] , which may drop all the way to $42.50 here first. I also will look to accumulate Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] — my superstar– if it gets any cheaper. This is a great place to start on RGLD as well, if you have not yet had the chance. [[CDE]] will also bounce hard, when it finally decides to do so.

Patience.

That’s all for now… more tomorrow in the comments section.

________________________

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Is it Safe??

MarathonMan

Did you take some action today? Were you nimble? Were you quick?

I’ll have you know today I, “Jack,” jumped many a candlestick, whilst running away from ex-Nazi dentists with maddeningly persistent, OSHA-oriented questions.

Did you?

I’m not going to mess around posting a bunch of charts, mostly as so many of them look the same with their one day reversal candles… but I’m going to say it here and leave it up to challenge. Today was a gift from the PM stock gods.

You see, today was the day “they” — the Operators — were going to shake the tree on all the trepeditious weak hands in the PM sector.  They were going to drive gold below $1,000 and then knock you over the head with a sockful of nickles to see how many positions you’d drop onto the ground for them to Hoover up.

And they were successful — to a point.  They were able to force gold below the $1k surface for a little more than two hours of trading this morning (NYSE hours) before, like a dirty beach ball in the Coney Island medical wash, it broke out above the waves again and headed higher. As I type (11:15 pm), POG is almost $1008 again, and POS is approaching $17. I’m betting we see more recovery tomorrow.

The same thing that happened to physical gold and silver happened across the precious metal mining sector. Very rare was the singular breakout like our previously recommended Corriente Resources Inc. [[ETQ]] , “the Latina Beauty.”

No, most of our names offered instead outstanding opportunities to buy at deep discounts today.  Just pull the chart on any Jacksonian or other oft-mentioned PM name and note the reversal dojis as they roared to recovery, some all the way to the green.

And yes I took advantage, though I announced only to The PPT today, as I mentioned I would. And no, I don’t mean to torture you like Sir Laurence Olivier with a rusty dental drill, but… well…

You see, I think we are in trading this Fall in very opportune times, and I want to make sure the people kind enough to keep this worthy site going “in custom” as it were, are rewarded with first dibs on choice observations.

So please don’t think me unkind, but rather, think of me as merely giving you yet another incentive– by way of whirring dental drill– to at least take a peek at The PPT…  for your own “toothsome good,” as it were.

Here’s an (edited) log of my announcements on The PPT‘s famed User Notes today:

10:30 & 11:15 am— Bot 15k shares [[CVM]] @ 1.90 (blended)

11:03 am— Bot 40 Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] December $9 strike calls @3.60, (SLW @ $12.12)

11:45 am — Bot 1k more [[PAAS]] @ $22.84

11:51 am — announced “POG back over $1,000 oz. again, if you blinked you missed it.”

12:02 pm — announced a potential new flag break formation on Beazer Homes USA, Inc. [[BZH]] .

1:07 pm — Bot another 2k of BZH @ $5.75 (limit order placed at 12:10 filled)

1:22 pm — Took advantage of the huge discount in IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and added another 2k @ $13.66 right as it bounced off the upward sloping trendline.

1:36 pm — pointed out the (then 12%) breakout in Corriente Resources Inc. [[ETQ]] .

In addition, after the above purchases, I also gave a “preview” on three potential plays that I think are setting up, maybe as soon as tomorrow. And remember, this is the kind of thing that is happening every day on The PPT, and not just with my picks, but with trades, observations and analyses of every serious trader involved on these pages and elsewhere.

As a result, we’ve become near-Homeric in our collective winship. Grab an oar if you like, we’re off to Troy again tomorrow.

Slange (sic).

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Makeup bonus:  Just to prove I’m not an over-secretive ogre, I’ll divulge a non-PM tasty I’ve been eyeing.  Take a look at ANADIGICS, Inc. [[ANAD]] on a pullback to $4.75-.80 here.  I think it’s going places. Best to you.

_________

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Don’t Get Too Cocky…

After all, this is why we are socking away wins for a rainy day:

deficit

So yeah, the Jacksons (up a collective 36.5% since May 1st as of today’s close) may be doing egregious “loaves and fishes” type miracles with your cash pile, but let’s keep our nose to the grindstone, as you’ll need that dough when a ham on rye, hold the mustard sets you back $36.25.

Remember we are all about dollar destruction here.   Take a look at that chart and ask yourself if the Congress and the Fed are going to support that kind of spending (not to mention the huge Medicare and Soc Sec liabilities) via the good old fashioned “belt tightening” of increased taxation and spending cuts?  

As they say in Texas, “No, hail no.”

So let’s be opportunistic and remember that there will be pullbacks in these metals, but that we need to manage our positions to maximize cash flow in this critical period.   For me that means selling calls at critical junctures, and even trimming the sails to raise cash from time to time.  If I’m reading things right, however, you are in for a bumpy, but enjoyable continuing ride here.

Keep in mind Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] has broken to new highs yet again, and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] remains a favourite pick.   I may take some leverage (ie, bot calls) off the table in Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] soon, as it’s run faster than it’s brother silvers by far, with over 66.8% returns since May 1st inception, while [[PAAS]] and Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] are only at 43.5% and 29.2% respectively.   I think SSRI especially will gain from here. 

On the junior level [[EXK]] continues to be a junior trooper, and I continue with a leveraged position in [[CDE]] as well, because of the acute lack of overhead.  I also own Hecla Mining Company [[HL]]

On the gold side, IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] remains the monster of the pack, with 85.8% returns since inception, but I’d look for a pullback here before jumping in.   Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] still look like they can pack punch here, however, so keep an eye out on them and yesterday’s mention Gold Fields Limited (ADR) [[GFI]] .  

 Last, non-PM Monsanto Company [[MON]] grabbed back some ground today but continues to be undervalue in the Jacksonian sphere.   Still a “grandkids pick.”   The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] –up over 106.5%  since Jackson inception — is still our leader, and looking for $39 as it’s next “achievment.”

I’ll have more tomorrow, but let’s shut it down with a veritable classic from my youth.   Share it with a favored son of daughter, and it’s likely they’ll never forget it:

  [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7tQVEEPWv0 450 300]

Slange.

__________________

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