Mind this One, too.
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Doesn’t it just seem like this tape is chock full of momentous milestones?  Not to bore you, but it seems like they keep coming, three a day — fire, flood and poor draft picks alike.

Sorry, that last was a shot at former NY Giant GM, Ernie Accorsi, long may his toupee moulder.  I’ll speak no more of trading the largely mobile and quick thinking Phillip Rivers for the clubfoot, Eli Manning, hurler of rookie interceptions deep into his sixth year on the job.

I’m not bitter, I swear.

But back to the momentous event of the day.   I like to call it “The Intercession of the Magic Gap.”   Back in the early days of October, 2008, when this whole gerbil basket of a market was falling to the feral cats, we had a Friday-Monday gap on the [[SPY]] of some significance.  It’s illustrated below:

 As you may recall, it got quite ugly after that.   However, the reason I illustrate this gap today is that I believe it’s serving as quite the psychological barrier for our market participants.   

Those bears, beaten and stripped of their 10k Rolex’s and cashmere mittens have long recognized this fillip as the “enough is enough” Maginot Line.    They believe this is where they can stand athwart history and cry “Stop!” in full W.F. Buckley (R.I.P.)  mode.

The bulls on the other hand, see this as a natural accelerant.   Like Right Guard aerosol on the open campfire, they know this region of “free air” should propel this bull even farther and higher once breached for good.    And to their credit, that was the case this October 14th and 15th, when we zoomed through that gap like a hot canoli through marzipan.

However, it seems that our gap has acted as something of a “CAP” upon reaching the north end.  Note we did exceed the roof, but not by much:

And my thinking is that this, too, is to be expected, as is today’s test of the uptrend line (also marked on the above chart).  

In fact, if I’m correct here, we are just consolidating this momentous level, and we should bounce off our long term trend line here on our way to the 1150-1180 range, where we’ll find our next consolidation point.  Here’s the BIG PICTURE I’m looking at, including “Gap/Cap:”

The great thing is, if I’m incorrect, you’ll have two things to give me yellow parsnip grief over — the Giant loss, and the Bull loss.  

But we’ll know soon enough, won’t we?  

Ciao for now, and Go Junkees!

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Aside — This is AWESOME… (gotta love youtube):

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KR2CiceeWg 450 300]

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Not General Jackson, but “the Earl” himself!
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Oh my, did you see that egregious sell-off in the last hour of trading?  

My heavens, I almost had the vapours (sic).   I high-about had a hernia.   In a fit of panic, I frisked the cat thoroughly for hidden weapons.

Almost everything sold off, including our friends at the [[SPY]] , our “tell” index.   

Well, almost everything.   [[BIOS]] was strong into the close, almost as if everyone was watching all the buyouts happening in its industry.   (That’s The PPT information I’ve been linking in the notes, fyi.   Have you signed up yet?)

But you know we’ve had these swoons for months now.   In fact, I count seven of them in the last three.   And yes, we are nearing a dollar bottom, so there’s likely to be some weakness here,  just as we’ve had those seven times in the past.    What’s important is that the trend, as herky jerky as it’s been has stayed UP (thanks to [[UUP]] , maybe?

Check it, Chekov, and chillax:

 What to do?  Oh what to do?

Sell some calls, trim some wins, stack your bologna for the next round, maybe?

Better yet, consult with the earl for your favourite (sic) bread-bordered meat & cheesy comestible.  

I am out all day tomorrow on a coastal state excursion, so my interraction will be spotty.    I will be checking comments.   Ciao.

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Breathe in, breathe out…

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Rather than torment you with additional gold and silver picks you should have purchased months ago (like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and [[CDE]] to mention two non-Jacksons that have been knocking the leather off the Rawling’s “A-Roid Style”) I figured I’d revisit two recommendations I still like and think will make a move as soon as tomorrow.

The first is [[BIOS]] which is a pharmaceutical management company that I’ve mentioned before, and which I think is finally ready to make it’s debut in high-falutin’ BTFO Society.    Below is the daily to show how close it came today to breaking out.   I think with the Apple Inc. [[AAPL]] news, we may have our chance to trip the light fantastic.   Earnings are slated for October 30th (a Friday) and I think we’ll have a run before that date.

What’s nice is that this breakout area as shown will likley be returned to — however briefly — for the requisite “bounce.”    If we don’t break tomorrow, you can see the rising support trend line for additional entry targets:

And here is BIOS’s weekly, showing the free air gap available to almost $8.70.   Again, I expect it will pull back at that point, but I like this name, and this company for the long haul here as well:

Second, Goin’ Fawr, the Canadian Loon, mentioned the rare metals today.  True, they’ve been hot.   Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] allows for some lithium investment while also being a great way to play agriculture (including potassium and nitrate fertilizers) South American style.    Like Aracruz Celulose SA (ADR) [[ARA]] , SQM can be an alternative to POT and MOS by avoiding nasty dollar based currency associations.

Dig the muy importante 61.8% long term fibonacci level at $39.89.   Gentlemen, if there were anything that I could drill into your heads, it would be the importance of achieving, and then beating that line.  

We’ve achieved– you can see in September, we briefly broke above $40.

We’ve retreated these last few weeks while beginning to build “mo” again.

Gentlemen (and ladies, let’s not forget the lovely lovely ladies), I think we are ready to go, maybe as soon as tomorrow.

Dig the scenario, Daddy-o:

Tomorrow should be momentous for the above stocks, as they are poised, as it were “on the edge of a knife.” 

Let your vorpel blades be sharpened. 

Snicker-snack.

Snicker-snack.

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Some have grown fretsome and sold their gold miners to me in short sighted paroxysms of “management.”  They — these “some” — feel they are “managers” and therefore must “manage,” long term values be damned.

But let me ask you this:  if you were given a goose that laid — quite literally — golden eggs,  would you sell said poutlry for a handful of beans and a wide screen TV tube?

Would you wring it’s neck for a quick meal of pate and buffalo wings?

No, of course not.   You’d husband said semi-aquiferous creature and feed it only the best seed corn and malted beverages from the Villages of St. Ides.  

You’d sing to it.

Two charts I’m featuring  tonight are a perfect illustration of the opportunity we have before us.   The first, I’ve been mentioning for weeks.   A “latter day Jackson,” Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] is perhaps my strongest gold pick at the moment.  

It may pull back some more here, but there’s no question that this weekly chart is showing a trip to uncharted territory, on uncommon strength:

My second chart is a newcomer, courtesy of The PPT, and perhaps as strong as ANV at this moment.   Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] is a new favourite of mine, and an irony to boot.

I appreciate irony, almost as I appreciate break-outs in trending stocks who also happen to be in super bull segments.

Look at this chart — this weekly chart remember — and ask yourself again.   Why would I want to concern myself with any other sectors at this point?   Why would you?

As they used to say on President & 5th — down in my old neighborhood in Prospect Park, Crooklyn — are you fookin’ kiddin’ me??

Be well.

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Zut, Alors!

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Some of you may wish to take this opportunity to weep like a disgruntled Maginot Line engineer a week after the Blitz (see above).  

That’s right it’s crying time again.   That time when the gold and silver bulls that as of late have been so docile and yielding of fresh milk (as far as you know) have now grown into raging Tauruses (Taurii?), trampling your bloated carcass and rifling your pockets for loose Good & Plenties.

But let’s check our calendars shall we?   Has Sinterklaas arrived already, muling his burlap bag of kittens and freshly polished wooden clogs?  

Has Mother already placed a large roasted poultry on the dusty “for guests only” dining room table and surrounded it with gut-stuffing, cream-embossed ancillary vegetation  seen — thankfully — only once a year?

For that matter, have even any cleverly disguised neighborhood brats beaten on your manor door, claiming King’s Right upon any nougat resident?

No?

Well, then, heck — go order a Kung Pao or something.  Take the day off.   Feed the birds.    Go have a pigeon sandwich with pigeon sauce on the side.

Or if you’re of a mind, and have recently grubbed some coin selling an egregious biotech hand grenade with your one remaining three fingered hand, see if there aren’t some glittery bargains out there you may have missed the first time around.

Caution — nothing’s really much of a bargain, valuation wise.    To buy here you’ll have to accept the thesis that we are “dollar unhinged” at this point, and that gold and silver are going quite a bit higher.   If you’ve been with me since inception, you’ve probably bought into that much. 

We’ll look at the dollar later tonight.    There will be a low and a rebound, but I don’t think it’s coming until [[UUP]] is down below $22.00.   That said, we’ll remain cautious.

There’s not a ton out there that I’m eyeing to add, but that’s only because I’m so “jug full” at this point.     I  continue to think the silvers offer the best opportunity, so I may want to look at the double POS(ilver) [[AGQ]] .

I also think [[PAAS]] is an opportunity here, thanks to yesterday’s sell-off on the merger news.  

[[CDE]] is hardly taking a breath (and I forgot to include it in yesterday’s list, my bad).  

 Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] has been lagging, but it’s known to catch up rather quickly. 

  Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] is of course my favourite (sic) silver,and don’t forget mighty mite [[EXK]] .

On the gold side, my current favourite — and non-Jackson — Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] is pulling back here.   I also like Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]] and [[BAA]] on this pullback.    

Of the Jackson golds, Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] is “the one” I choose above all others, thanks to its royalty leverage.   IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]]   and Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] have also been champions and will see the 20’s by Christmas, in my opinion.

One last thing, platinum is really picking up after lagging here, and I think  [[PTM]] is very close to “BTFO”  in the $16.50 area.   This is one to have in your portfolio as a “core holding” along with [[SLV]] and [[GLD]] , in my humblest opinion.

That’s enough for now.   Go to the boulangerie and weep over an anisette and black-black coffee.

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I’m really juicing my returns!

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I know, I know, so few of you even watch baseball anymore… It’s more than likely that this reference is something of a stretch.

Better I should stick with the metaphor of football, with its place of honour (sic) and royalty amongst great American sports, and it’s apt illustrations of long bombs and crashing sprints to the goal line.

But for now, humour (sic) me, and act like you know what I’m talking about when I describe an increasingly obscure sport played by men in tight knickers carrying large whittled  pieces of timber, who seek to knock a tightly wound and sewn sac of leather onto a perfectly mown lawn, preferably with no interference by opposing knicker-clad men who have handicapped themselves with enormous envelopes of leather appended to one hand .

It’s not unlike “the jai-alai,” in that respect.

In recent years these men, perhaps grown jealous of their larger athletic compadres playing in the NFL, have taken to augmenting their physiques with such muscle enhancing chemicals as horse hormones and testicular steroids.    One such famed participant was Mark McGwire,  a now near-forgotten and disgraced performer for the St. Louis Cardinals, who put on so much additional mass via home chemo-therapy that he began to resemble the famed Michelin Man of French tire hocking renown.

Then he broke Yankee Great Roger Maris’s single-season home run record and marked the beginning of the end for American baseball.  

But enough of that funeral oratory, as I only bring up Mark McGwire to remark upon how easy it seems to have gotten to knock home-runs in the precious metal space.     So easy, in fact, that I remarked in The PPT yesterday that it was like watching the aforesaid McGuire hitting warm up fungoes in batting practice, or better yet — easily winning the Major League All-Star Game Home Run Derby almost every year he entered it.

But in the market, things are not supposed to come this easily, and so my mind has strayed to areas of oncoming resistance much like a hobo seeking lights at the far end of a train tunnel.   Remember, there will be pullbacks, and I think our friend “Baby $HUI”can be our guide again in this regaurd (sic):

My best guess is we run to that first line of resistance as depicted on the weekly above, and then fall back to the trend line.   So if you are looking to unload phat options positions that have grown unwieldy with greasy profits, your window may be approaching.

There’s also a chance that the dollar dumps with the ferocity of an aging bull elephant beset with cholera.  If that happens we may run all the way back to all-times highs as featured on Saint Paddy’s day of 2008 (and illustrated in red above), when oil was peaking at $147 a barrel.   

 Word to the wise — oil is half that now.  Act accordingly.

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For specifics, silver is still lagging gold, which as we’ve discussed, has broken to all time highs and is now over $1,061 an ounce.   Silver remains below $18, and it’s all time high is  $49.45an ounce.      That’s why I’m on those stocks like Woodshedder on a corn-dog. 

In order of immediacy,  I like [[PAAS]] on the sell-off, Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] on the pullback, [[EXK]] , Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] and finally the dog, Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] .

Also, on the gold side, I have to make a shout-out to favourite Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and new The PPT find Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] which is up about 25% since being singled out by The PPT early last week.

Last, I am accumulating [[TBT]] for the near inevitable rise in interest rates.  I added 1,000 more yesterday.

Best to you all.

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