Developing…
Comments »Week’s End Respite
Lot’s of comments, and I’ve annotated some charts, but I don’t have time to fill in the commentary yet, so I’ll just throw the charts out for now. Many of them are self explanatory… “developing…”
Markets via the Transports, daily:
And weekly, with the Fibs:
Now our $HUI— daily:
And the weekly $HUI:
Last, the Jacksonian Results as of Friday:
| Name | 18-Jun | 19-Jun | % Change | Comments | |
| ANDE | $ 28.18 | $ 28.61 | 1.53% | Still in consolidation here. Break now $28.15 | |
| EGO | 7.97 | 8.20 | 2.89% | Support @ 8, bizarre final 1/2 hour. | |
| GDX | 37.20 | 38.39 | 3.20% | Nice EOD action. | |
| GLD | 91.60 | 91.90 | 0.33% | POG flat, like all week. | |
| IAG | 9.10 | 9.36 | 2.86% | Never got below $9. Odd last ten minutes | |
| MON | 82.30 | 80.73 | -1.91% | A pox on Cramer. Nice final 45 min. | |
| NRP | 21.95 | 21.99 | 0.18% | Back above trend for now. | |
| PAAS | 18.59 | 18.93 | 1.83% | Nice volume today. | |
| RGLD | 41.98 | 43.08 | 2.62% | Still on trend. | |
| SLV | 13.97 | 13.99 | 0.14% | POSilver @14.23, inside day | |
| SLW | 8.30 | 8.63 | 3.98% | Triangle forming, up off the floor? | |
| SSRI | 18.13 | 18.92 | 4.36% | Nice move, but EOD red candles again. | |
| TBT | 55.76 | 54.34 | -2.55% | Not yet filled gap @ 54.20 yet. | |
| TC | 10.50 | 10.54 | 0.38% | Flat again. Watch for break. | |
| TCK | 16.28 | 16.54 | 1.60% | Consolidating. | |
| AVG (daily) | 1.43% | ||||
| AVG (monthly) | -7.15% | ||||
| AVG (inception) | 15.55% | ||||
| Cash ( 000’s) | $ 4.61 | ||||
Hammered by My Hammers
Sheesh, I sure am glad I put that caveat in there yesterday, because all those nice high topped hammers I saw yesterday did nothing but crash off my dome all day long today. Let’s face it, I’m starting to get a little tired of this pullback (down over 9% this month!), m’self, and even more so given the relative reasonableness of today’s market on the specifically non-Jacksonian financial sector today. Talk about a victory for the bloody Redcoats!
That said, I haven’t stopped picking up shares in various stocks that I consider bargains at these prices. I’m just flabbergasted at how low ((SSRI)) and ((PAAS)) and ((SLW)) have gotten. I bot more SSRI yesterday, and got another 2k of SLW today (at $8.26 on the gap fill), so I guess tomorrow is PAAS’s day?
For those of you who have been accumulating slowly here, bravo. The Jacksonian Portfolio is defintely a Spartan marathon and not a dash to the corner deli for a pack of Kools and a pint of Sunny Delight. This “bucking bull” volatility is going to be here for the duration, so we’re going to have to “get in shape” by taking some cash off the table from time to time, like I did with ((TC)) the other day.
As you may recall, that 1/3 TC sale and the liquidation of the original TSO position left me with some $14,607 in cash from the original portfolio. I finally decided to put the bulk of that to work with an initial $10k position in ((TCK)), as we’ve contemplated. It didn’t hurt that TCK was having a good day, let me tell you. Now I have $4.6 k left in cash, and soon I’ll begin incorporating the cash component into the overall returns as well. It doesn’t make any sense to take profits and then not incorporate that into the total return of the portfolio.
As well, I’ve decided to be a bit more “illustrative” in this account by dealing with hedging in a different way than I do in my personal account. As it’s too complex (and annoying) to incorporate the short calls I usually use to hedge my portfolio, I will more simply sell portions (or all) of the Jacksonians in order to accrue cash in the portfolio and take risk off the table. I think that will probably be easier for you all to follow as well. Your comments are welcome.
I haven’t much in the way of commentary on the Jacksons today other than my notes below. I will say that we continue to be brutally oversold, and we are due for a cycle low here in the precious metals any day now. I continue to believe you will be rewarded for your perseverance here.
Because I felt bad about all these bloody Jacksons (save TCK) I figured I’d dig up one “present” for tomorrow… a non-Jacksonian I did the fibs on tonight is [[MTL]] — Mechel OAO. Coking coal, steel, molybdenum, it’s got it all. I like it because it touched beautifully off the23.6% intermediate term fibonacci line today and it looks like it’s ready to go again. The other one I like for tomorrow we’ve already discussed… PPT favorite [[SPAR]]. Best to you all.
| Name | 17-Jun | 18-Jun | % Change | Comments | |
| ANDE | $ 28.88 | $ 28.18 | -2.42% | Will sell half on a break of $28. Gap fill at $26.60 | |
| EGO | 8.65 | 7.97 | -7.86% | Trend line @ 7.78. Bearish engulfing says we get it. | |
| GDX | 38.23 | 37.20 | -2.69% | Failed hammer, back to support. | |
| GLD | 92.35 | 91.60 | -0.81% | POG $934, within yest range | |
| IAG | 9.65 | 9.10 | -5.70% | Sell 1/2 on break of support @ 8.75 | |
| MON | 81.08 | 82.30 | 1.50% | Cramer beat it up tonight, a net positive. | |
| NRP | 22.13 | 21.95 | -0.81% | 5 red days in a row? C’mon already! | |
| PAAS | 20.39 | 18.59 | -8.83% | Uptrend line at 17.95. Pssin me off. | |
| RGLD | 43.73 | 41.98 | -4.00% | Hammer doji on trendline, EOD buying | |
| SLV | 14.12 | 13.97 | -1.06% | POSilver @14.24, inside day | |
| SLW | 8.80 | 8.30 | -5.68% | Filled that last gap at $8.27, bot 2k more $8.26 | |
| SSRI | 19.22 | 18.13 | -5.67% | Do not like this action one bit. | |
| TBT | 54.17 | 55.76 | 2.94% | Gap @ 54.21. Could come back once more. | |
| TC | 10.50 | 10.50 | 0.00% | Perfect doji day. | |
| TCK | 15.31 | 16.28 | 6.34% | Nice first day on the job. | |
| AVG (daily) | -2.32% | ||||
| AVG (monthly) | -8.32% | ||||
| AVG (inception) | 13.91% | ||||
| Cash ( 000’s) | $ 4.61 | ||||
These Fibs Don’t Lie
Well it was a day so full of hammers in the Jacksonian portfolio that we could have built a break front works that would have repelled the stoutest of cavalries. You can see my comments in the notes about them, but generally a lot of hammers means that you are seeing final bottomings in stocks as they open high, chase a bunch of sells lower and then close high again, working out final selling positions.
I say this happens “generally,” but we shall see what happens tomorrow. The good news is we’ve gotten to pretty oversold conditions in almost all of the Jacksons, so those of you who have been picking up bargainst these last few days, bravo. I think we shall see some action as we head towards the end of the week. As it’s options expiry, I hope it’s not that X-rated kind of action no sensible gentleperson wants to see.
I was doing some work on fibs, but I have to run to a lacrosse game, so my findings will have to wait until an addenda is readied with my findings. Let’s just say these ten year fibonaccis are, in the words of Commander Spock “Quite fascinating, Jim.”
Many apologies to those not named Jim.
Here are the “notes,” I will talk to youse latah.
| Name | 16-Jun | % Change | 17-Jun | % Change | Comments | |
| ANDE | $ 29.04 | $ 28.88 | -0.55% | Still in triangle consolidation. | ||
| EGO | 8.51 | 8.65 | 1.65% | Bullish engulfing, two days black now. | ||
| GDX | 38.37 | 38.23 | -0.36% | Nice hammer on the day, despite slight down. | ||
| GLD | 91.93 | 92.35 | 0.46% | POG $940, beautiful hammer. | ||
| IAG | 9.54 | 9.65 | 1.15% | Hammer off the 23.6% fib, too. | ||
| MON | 81.62 | 81.08 | -0.66% | Opened down, nice recovery. | ||
| NRP | 22.44 | 22.13 | -1.38% | Red hammer just above the 38.2% (22.05) | ||
| PAAS | 20.74 | 20.39 | -1.69% | Held support at $20, oversold like a mothah! | ||
| RGLD | 42.90 | 43.73 | 1.93% | Bouncing on 43.50, another EOD selloff? | ||
| SLV | 13.99 | 14.12 | 0.93% | POSilver @14.34, $13.80 support held | ||
| SLW | 8.92 | 8.80 | -1.35% | Hammer on $8.50 support, nice trade PPT! | ||
| SSRI | 19.62 | 19.22 | -2.04% | I bot it one last time as promised! $19.02. | ||
| TBT | 53.59 | 54.17 | 1.08% | Bot back 1/2 my calls today as promised. | ||
| TC | 10.68 | 10.50 | -1.69% | Caught support @ 9.60 and then took off. Hammer. | ||
| TSO | 14.98 | 14.98 | 0.00% | Is TCK the replacement, let’s hear your vote! | ||
| AVG (daily) | -0.17% | |||||
| AVG (monthly) | -7.44% | |||||
| AVG (inception) | 16.22% | |||||
______________________________
PS — note the final comment on TSO, which goes away soon. I am seriously thinking of adding [[TCK]] which I added today at $15.04, to the Jacksons. It’s only serious competition is [[BHP]]. What say youse?
Comments »Just Remember that it’s an Illusion
Catch hold of this reflationary bounce here, but don’t be surprised when it all starts falling apart again. It may be this summer and it may be next, but the bear will be back, no question. Right now, the soporific falling dollar keeps him at bay.
I’ve got a great paper for you all to take in at your leisure, written by economist and author Antal Fekete, professor at the San Francisco School of Economics. Below is an excerpt from his lecture, Fiat Money in Death Throes. (click link for whole paper).
This particular segment shows why we have no choice but to arm ourselves with sound money alternates, as the “drug addicts” will brook no change until they are forced into withdrawl.
A government can take total control of the people either by the use of military force, or by
the use of irredeemable currency. The former is readily understood, while the latter is a subtle
national drug that is not generally recognized as such. Rather, it is readily embraced by its
victims. For these and similar reasons irredeemable currency is the favorite device of modern
governments that want to bring people under total control. Indeed, it enables the government to
succeed in controlling the masses while, at the same time, earning their approval and even their
enthusiastic support. Irredeemable currency must be seen as the habit-forming drug that the
government uses to intoxicate people. Under this intoxication people will want more and more
national spending, more and more government control, and more and more debt.
This intoxication obscures the sad end that arrives when the merry-go-round is coming to a
jerky halt, when credit is exhausted or withdrawn, and the kitty is found empty. The nation is
facing a most serious economic disaster followed by prolonged economic pain. Unfortunately
government economists, university professors, and financial journalists have taken their share
of the fun and they failed miserably in their duty to forewarn people of the coming disaster.
It is useless to expect a mass movement on behalf of a sound currency. The daily
experiences of people provide them with a warped outlook. They confirm in their minds the
alleged virtues and benefits of an infinitely inflatable currency. People lack sufficient
understanding of monetary science to see that no currency can be made infinitely inflatable
without inviting disaster. Like a drug addict, people exposed to irredeemable currency do not
regard it as a dangerous and undermining narcotic agent. Even the loss of purchasing power
does not disturb them to any great extent. Their response is to demand more money, and they
take pride in the fact that the government listens sympathetically to their demand. They
welcome the soaring stock indexes and real estate prices, and put great stores on them. Heavy
taxes and burgeoning debt are not regarded with anxiety. A frequent and common agitation is
for ever more government spending.
Sound familiar yet? Welcome next, “Obamacare”…. My best to you all.
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Green Shoots in Gold Fields?
Oh I had a great picture for today. You shoulda seen it. Larry Kudlow, nekkid, save for a leprechaun’s chapeau and a human sized version of the parti-coloured (sic) NBC Peacock’s fan jutting from his ass-quarters, carrying a wee pot o’ gold for the Jacksons.
Alas, Vincenzo is still in back of the cold room there, with the sand blaster and the servers. You know that marinara gravy, it is recalcitrant. So you’ll just have to use your imaginations.
On to today. First, with regard to the new Jacksonian pick: I still haven’t made it, but today I ruled out any natural gas plays. If you are interested in the reason, please visit The Caveman Forecaster’s blog for a great post on the natural gas market, and be sure to read the comments that follow it as well. Short version: natty is just too volatile and not a great long term performer due to its seasonality, and therefore not a good candidate for long term value like a Jackson should be.
So we’re just going to have to nominate another candidate. The door is still open for your suggestions.
Today, I have to admit I was leaning in the direction of the gold camp again (surprise!). I told you in the post previous about my increasing interest in Gold Fields Ltd., which had an almost mystical meeting with it’s long term (ten year!) 61.8% fibonacci retrace today at the low of $11.42, from which it bounced nicely to close today at $11.58 (+2.75%). I bot a starter position a little higher than that, at $11.67 today.
I also reiterated that the junior miners — as expected — seem to be leading the recovery from our pullback here. For example the non-Jacksonian “Three Golden Horsemen of N” juniors — [[NG]], [[NGD]], and [[NXG]] were all up 6.72%, 7.97 % and 4.29%, respectivley. As mentioned I added to my stores of NG today at $4.94. Oh yeah, another junior gold I own that did well today was [[ANV]] up 5.69%.
I also added to SLW today at the propitous price of $8.88, even though I own gobs of this one already. I just couldn’t hold off with it below $9, and may add again. Stylene of The PPT also added some SSRI at $19.41, and I was jealous even though I was “full up” in that Jacksonian stalwart already. Some of my last purchases in SSRI were higher than that level!
I think the silvers may have begun to feel out a bottom today as well, as you will see in the Jacksonian performance. In fact, the precious metal component of the Jacksons is now “market divergent,” although I’ve a feeling the market will catch up with us tomorrow.
| Name | 15-Jun | 16-Jun | % Change | Comments | |
| ANDE | $ 28.83 | $ 29.04 | 0.73% | Another doji, but crawling back up the triangle. | |
| EGO | 8.28 | 8.51 | 2.78% | Nice junior-joining movement at EOD. | |
| GDX | 37.97 | 38.37 | 1.05% | Nice inside day, showing a change of direction. | |
| GLD | 91.10 | 91.93 | 0.91% | POG back to $935, nice step. | |
| IAG | 9.25 | 9.54 | 3.14% | Oversold yesterday, joined the juniors today. | |
| MON | 84.97 | 81.62 | -3.94% | Sued by rival, still on trend. | |
| NRP | 22.99 | 22.44 | -2.39% | 38.2% fib @ 22.05 decent entry | |
| PAAS | 20.95 | 20.74 | -1.00% | 20.70 support held, still flabby. | |
| RGLD | 41.81 | 42.90 | 2.61% | Didn’t like EOD selloff… 41.50 in future? | |
| SLV | 13.83 | 13.99 | 1.16% | PO Silver still on 50 day EMA! – ($14.16) | |
| SLW | 9.25 | 8.92 | -3.57% | Big support in the $8.50 range if we’re “lucky” | |
| SSRI | 19.92 | 19.62 | -1.51% | If this got to $19, I’d buy it one last time. | |
| TBT | 55.49 | 53.59 | -3.42% | Getting ready to buy back the sold calls at $53 | |
| TC | 11.05 | 10.68 | -3.35% | Support bounce at $10.40. Still w “the market?” | |
| TSO | 14.98 | 14.98 | 0.00% | Not natties to replace, so don’t even say it. | |
| AVG (daily) | -0.45% | ||||
| AVG (monthly) | -7.28% | ||||
| AVG (inception) | 16.47% | ||||
Unattended Addenda: No vids postable this week either, but this is pretty funny fun that is funny (hat tip to the Big Swan).
Wednesday Morning Update: Bot 1k more SSRI @ $19.02. Bouncing on lower channel and support.
Wednesday Morning Update: Of all the junior golds I mentioned yesterday, [[ANV]] is showing the strongest relative strength, which bodes well for it’s continuing performance as this market turns back up for us. I may add a little here as well.
Wednesday Morning Update: RGLD filled that gap from back on 6/12. Currently (@ 12:23 EST) seems to be in “full recovery mode” at $44.23 (+3.10%). This is perhaps my most treasured Jackson, as you know. Hat tip to “Glud” for the shout out on CA’s blog.
Wednesday Afternoon Update: I may have found the new Jacksonian. I really like the pullback on [[TCK]]; especially when considering it’s pullback — almost to the penny — to it’s 23.6% long term fib line (officially 14.52). I bot a small starter here (1.5 k shs) @ $15.04.
Wednesday Afternoon Update: Might do a whole post on this but I am starting to look at other “ten year fib charts” since I got such curious results from GFI and TCK today. Just pulled up SSRI’s and it’s 61.8% fib was right at $19.01!
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