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Market Discussion

Get on the Train!

Trainpeeps

There’s room for Every-frickin’-body!
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It’s quite likely I’ll be busy today, so I wanted to throw a couple of brontosaurus burgers out there for your barbecuing pleasure in case things get all jiggy like yesterday.

‘Cause, make no mistake, we are entering into primo deal season here, if all of my bidness (sic) radar array are working in proper function.  My group is busier than a one-armed Palo Alto Perma-Bear at a self-congratulatory back-patting contest, and if the middle markets are moving, then I’m going bet the big boys have more cooking than just Uncle Warren’s Train Set purchase yesterday.

For one example, look for deals in the edumacation business, for one thing — companies like Apollo Group, Inc. [[APOL]] and DeVry Inc. [[DV]] and Career Education Corp. [[CECO]] have all been beneficiaries of a sea change in education delivery in the last decade or so.  

However, I think the paradigms are going to change even more drastically going forward.  I am getting this intuition from the myriad start-ups and later stage deals I am seeing in this space over the last 12 months.   As a result, I’d look for tuitions at all but the most exclusive post-secondary schools to come down in the very near future.   As a father of four near-genius children, I couldn’t be more pleased.

That aside, I think there’ll likely also be acquisitions in the Precious Metalspace as well,  as the various hedged and non-hedged behemoths squat and mark their territories by gobbling up junior miners with promising cargoes of “ounces in the ground.”   

To my chagrin,  I have no insight from an M&A perspective, as the majority of that deal making occurs north of our borders in the frozen outbacks of Canuckistan, completed by cigar-puffing investment bankers wearing snow-blindness goggles and polar-bear fur pantsuits.

Therefore, I can only point you out the promising junior and middle sized firms that may be in the snowmobile screens of various behemoths like Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) [[ABX]] , Newmont Mining Corporation [[NEM]] , Goldcorp Inc. (USA) [[GG]]  and AngloGold Ashanti Limited (ADR) [[AU]] .    These include:

Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]]

IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]]

Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]]

Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]]

[[CDE]]

Hecla Mining Company [[HL]]

Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]]

[[BAA]]

Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (USA) [[IVN]]

[[EXK]]

[[PAAS]]

Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]]

Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA (ADR) [[BVN]]   ———->>>> note: this one can be an acquiror or an acquiree, given it’s geographic interest.

and of course, the “catch all”  — [[GDX]] .

There are quite a few more that I’ve left off as I’m rushing, so feel free to add your own, and I may or may not add or comment on those later.

Best to you all, and one last thing:  beware the bear traps — and those calling petulantly from within them.

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Update: In a shocking and unexpected move the dollar is down again [[UUP]] .

Who could’ve seen it?  Heh. 

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BEHOLD!

buddah 

$1,100 gold is right around the corner and we zoomed over $17 again on the silver to rest currently at $17.22.

As a result, the miners of anything shiny from platinum to tin foil have gone Batman on us and are leaping in grey tights and high-cropped riding boots from roof to roof.

Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] must absolutley be on your “Grandmother list” and I mean not for your grandmother, but for your grandmotherhood.

You don’t think Social Security is going to keep you in tea cakes and airplane bottle of Chivas, do you?

Also, for your dining pleasure, Fly has engineered a special gold list for The PPT and left it only for those whom I favor. It’s like stumbling into Aladdin’s Treasure Cave without use of magic verse or carpet.

You are that lucky.

You can see everything I mentioned last night launched out of the park today. That’s because Gold — and [[GLD]] has broken out to new highs again, and is on it’s way to $1,250 and then higher still. In addition to RGLD and the Jackson’s you want to get hold of these top Ten Fly Listers also:

Name              Hybrid % Chg              PPT Score/5.0 

1 AUY                 43.21  %                                4.11

2 NXG                    27.36                               4.05

3 EGO                     33.55                                4.02

4 GG                        21.08                               4.02

5 AZK                     32.99                               3.87

6 GOLD                  42.64                               3.78

7 RGLD                 63.64                               3.78

8 ABX                    20.20                               3.63

9 GFI                    50.43                                 3.52

10 NEM                12.75                                 3.45 

Go! 

Be benificent to one another in this day of gloury (sic).

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No Time for Puking…

pukekin

There you stand, all “a-guts”with leftover Halloween booty, still feeling a little queasy from too much of that new beer you bought after seeing the “Most Interesting Man” commercial (you didn’t know it wasn’t Tecate… you just told the guy the guy at the bodega… “that Mex beer… you know?”)…

And now, this post-pumpkin Halloween Surprise and a half market.

Well, hold onto your grapes here folks, ’cause I think we’ve gotten an RSI scrape-out and bounce here on the [[HUI]] index, and I think the famed 38.2% fibonacci level has held as long term support in the $378 area.

hui_weeklyii

This is significant because it looks like the price of gold is heading back up again– as mentioned Friday and again today– despite the best efforts of the IMF with their attempts at silencing the insatiable third world gold demand and despite even the recent dollar strength.

I think the overall markets may have one more wiggle before the lows are in, so you may have one more opportunity tomorrow to grab some miners before they begin their march back to El Dorado without you.

I like Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] , [[EXK]] , [[CDE]] for “bang for your buck” cocaine dependent trader types, and I think IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] are the best of the Jacksons right now.

As my nemesis, Hippy Red Neck Purdy has rightfully pointed out, [[BIOS]] has broken into that “free air” zone I mentioned in bloggish notes past.   I think it’s good to the $9.50 area in the near-term, fwiw.

Last, for you degenerate gambling types, the double ETF’s [[AGQ]] an [[ERX]] are looking like they are ready to start le bon temps roulletting like a bourbon filled Jeremy Shockey in the House of the Rising Son with Ragin’ and Andy Swan as his parallel-pounding wing-men. 

So hold your gourd, pumpkin eaters, this is seed-spitting time!  

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Update:  For the sadness of All Saints

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvb65dCMjZI 450 300]

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Adding Bars o’ Silver

silverbars

The Foundation of a Trustworthy Country
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I have no time to speak, only to reiterate that Friday’s “non-confirmation” of the gold break (unlike the rest of the market) gave me the “green light” on the continuation of this secular bull in the precious.

I’d add Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] on this pullback if the accumulated bricks of it weren’t already filling up my garage to the chagrin of my crappy Volvo.  So I’m getting the next best thing, which is [[CDE]] .

For the remainder of the market, continue to watch [[UUP]] for your “tell.”

Stay golden, pony boys and girls.

 

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Burn this Post

Inferno

Happy Halloween Surprise Mothah-Cluckas!
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Okay, just burn it if we don’t bounce here. Here’s the amazing thing about this Halloween Surprise we’re experienceing right now… someone almost predicted it.

And I say “almost” only because he said we’d retest the lows today and then rally all next week, and obviously, only Fly and his Time Machine can check that part out yet.

Here’s the thing. He said this when we were hitting Wednesday’s lows, and he predicted yesterdays’ massive rally and today’s retest!  If he hits on all cylinders  with this prediction, we may have to give him his own blog.

But let me tell you Fly aint gonna like it.

“Developing….”

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Let me tell you what I’m doing right here and now… I’m “wading in.’   I sold some more of my options yesterday under the “too good to be true” axiom, thinking we’d at least have a little pullback from yesterday’s move.

Well I guess we did have something didn’t we?     Well, we more than tested Wednesday’s lows (again, as mystery guest predicted) and even filled that October 6th gap.   We are now on the march back, however tentative, and I’m adding to my PM’s here, and other Jacksons.

I already bot 200 more [[AGQ]] this morning, too early again, at over $55.   Dumbass, right?  Well, I’m not too worried about AGQ long term, truthfully.

I am also eyeing my “strength” Jacksons, including suddenly cheap silvers Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , [[EXK]] , [[CDE]] and on the gold side Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] .  

Let the price of gold be your biscuit here… it’s not even coming close to the lows of Wednesday, which tells me this is one more false “whip” of our secular bull.   Don’t get bucked.   Those of you who were lucky enough to sell some yesterday (and even the day before) deploy cautiously, but wisely.

And with great vigor.   As your cautionary flag watch for $22.70 on [[UUP]] — that seems to be holding off the Huns for now. 

Best to you.

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If It’s All the Same to You…

bushama

I’ll just keep on, keepin’ on….
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I trust nothing these days, save my Jacksonian positions.

I certainly don’t trust the restless trolls reaching their gnarled fingers from under their respective bridges to nip at my knee-caps.  Back off, trolls, lest I take you off at the fore-arms with my trusty scimitar!

Despite the above imagery, I was relatively unscathed today.   Down less than 40 bips.  Odd, no?

And guess what else?

I bot some more PM exposure, like a crazed bandicoot, hungry for shiny tin foil. Options, even. (Am I mad?)

No, not even peevish. Just “taking advantage.”

I bot back the 30 December $9 strike Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] at $3.70 and $4.00.

I bot back the 40 December $40 strike [[GDX]] at $5.60.

I added another 300 shares of [[AGQ]] at $56.33, just for the heck of it.

I am eyeing Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] which I still haven’t bot yet. I think [[UUP]] will have trouble tomorrow, despite it’s recent strong price and volume move.

Remember it’s “Ridiculous Bond Sale Week,” and let’s be careful out there.

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