I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.

Thomas Jefferson, – “O.J.” — the Original Jackson (Attributed)
3rd president of US (1743 – 1826)

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With this quote in mind, I want to again call to your attention that we are approaching the “August to Christmas” gold run, which generally includes a concurrent run in the gold and silver miners, as represented by the [[HUI]] index.   Almost every year in the oughts since 2000 has reflected this run, save of course last year, when we experienced a 28% loss due to a mass liquidation of all assets.

As reflected in the 2007 portion of the following chart, you can see the $HUI broke over 67% in the August to December period.   Note that a return to the old highs ($525) would only require a 44% run from these levels.

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I believe we should see a relatively rapid progression when this thing gets moving — from $375 to the June highs (about $405) and then very possibly back to our pre-crash ’08 old highs in the $525 area.  That kind of progression in the $HUI should mean good things for all of our precious Jacksons, including Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] ,IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] , our leveraged royalty play in Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] and our gold ETF [[GDX]] whose $34 strike options I purchased last week for September expiry.

A strong $HUI will mean even better things for the silver Jacksons, as the price of gold is still well over the historic 40x silver “norm” at nearly 65x today.   Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] is my number one pick in this space, but  [[PAAS]] and even relative laggard Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] should be strong in this coming period.

As for non-Jacksons, I still like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] despite the recent dilution, and Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] and [[BAA]] all look good from the junior gold side, and of course [[EXK]]   and [[CDE]] on the silver side.   I will also throw Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] out as a possibility because it tends to jump in “hot” precious markets.   Be warned, however, this last is a “trade only” position, and not one to keep even one day past its expiration date. 

If you want to buy and hold, stick with the Jacksons and a well diversified pool of juniors… one or two of those will be “lotto tickets” and the rest will be largely crap, but you will be happy for the lotto wins nonetheless. 

No excuses, ladies and gents.  It’s “sarious” (sic) time.  See you at the finish line.
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I know I haven’t given you a Jacksonian update in a while, so here’s last week’s results.  Note the bludgeoning in Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] due to the UBS (curse them) “bought deal” which means a “sold short” deal to those who are already holders.  No matter, once this overhead is sopped up, TC will move again, as will Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] .  Get these while they are cheap.

Name/			%		Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	21-Aug	28-Aug	Change		Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$        28.20	$      32.92	16.74%		$             9,940	1.00%		Big volume leap Friday. $33 is break.
EGO	11.02	10.56	-4.17%		$             9,895	-0.25%		Riding 20-day (10.49) on coil now.
GDX	39.30	40.18	2.24%		$           12,161	0.16%		Moving out of consolidation zone (>$40)
GLD	93.65	93.87	0.23%		$           10,796	0.02%		Coming out of coil as well, needs $95.50
IAG	11.93	12.02	0.75%		$           14,821	0.07%		Looks to test new highs (12.36+) this wk.
MON	83.78	83.00	-0.93%		$           13,168	-0.07%		Stuck between 20 and 200 day EMA’s.
PAAS	19.52	19.99	2.41%		$           12,006	0.17%		Breaking out of EMA coils (20/50/200)
RGLD	39.50	39.95	1.14%		$           11,039	0.08%		Closed above 200 day but lagging peers.
SLV	13.92	14.50	4.17%		$           11,779	0.29%		Nice leap on volume Friday, targ: $16.04
SLW	9.37	10.45	11.53%		$           10,150	0.70%		Nice move Friday, over $11 = free air.
SSRI	18.24	18.28	0.22%		$           10,634	0.01%		Still lagging all MA’s, and peers.
TBT	49.55	46.74	-5.67%		$             9,311	-0.32%		Broke below 38.2% fib @ 47.20, 44.90 target
TC	14.29	11.98	-16.17%		$             9,861	-0.96%		Massive dilution effect from secondary
TCK	26.73	25.20	-5.72%		$           24,315	-0.83%		RSI turning back up again, could be time.
Cash (000)	$        8.63	$    12.64	0.01%		$         12,644	0.00%		Added another $4k+ with final NRP sale
AVG (weekly)			0.40%		$       182,520	0.07%
AVG (monthly)			9.91%		Actual cash
AVG (inception)			25.14%		on cash return	21.68%

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Thanks for waiting the whole day. Turns out you didn’t miss much on my “super-secret” pick of Beazer Homes USA, Inc. [[BZH]] today, although you might have been able to buy it at the lows of $4.01 had I mentioned it first thing like I thought I would. But let’s be honest, how many of you would’ve grabbed your cups at that point and drank deep of this possibly downswirling poisonous homebuilder??

That’s right, none o’ ya. Besides, I bot it at $4.21 near yesterday’s close (when I announced it on The PPT — are you subscribing yet??), so I don’t feel bad about letting you in on it at right around the same price.

Why Beezy? I have no idea, I guess the Inflation Gods are moving into even the crappy homebuilder space. The only thing I know is the charts are showing compelling interest and very close to “BTFO” levels at today’s close. Please to enjoy the following picture show… first the weekly for the price and volume overview:

Then the Daily to show the turtle head that caused me to take my “starter position” at $4.21

On top of this new pick, the Jacksons are starting to make noise again, with Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] and Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] making nice moves today.   Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] continues to be punished for the sin of issuing capital to Canuckistanian Securities Firms, may God curse their Yukon Cornelius beards to immediate dreadlocked disarray.    Soon, I will be forced to buy a tonne (sic) more.   We shall see.

My [[GDX]] call play is beginning to look nice as well, and I believe all will  be well with us if [[UUP]] continues to stay below $23.30.

Best to you all.

 

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Just a word on Jacksonian long termer  [[TBT]] , which has taken something of a lashing recently.   It’s currently sitting right below a substantial (38.2%) Fibonacci retracement line from the beginning of the September swoon season (i.e., 9/02/08) to the lows on December 18th of 2008.   That 38.2% line stands at $47.21, and I think a close below that will indicate a drop to at least $44.90 or so.

 

For myself, I will “do nothing” for now, save eat a samich (sic).  As TBT, like [[SLV]] and [[GLD]] is a “bedrock” pick of mine for the coming troubles,  I may hedge it from time to time (which I may do here) but I will not sell my core position.  In fact, I mad add if we do dip back below to the $45 area.  If we do not get back above the target fib @ $47.21, I will likely sell calls tomorrow on my position, awaiting further entry.

In other news, New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] could drop back down to the trend line again (at $3.34 or thereabouts) but I think I’ll take another 1/2 position at these levels ($3.39).

Follow me only upon full knowledge of all your limbs being blown off in a nasty dynamiting session by these  small miners.

Best regaurds (sic), Jake.

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UPDATE:  Bot 6k more NGD @ $3.38 (market).

 

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While it may have seemed we only experienced a slight pullback day for the market, today was in fact a sad day for the Jacksonians, as we saw another original candidate get the old “heave ho” out the door for lack of performance.  I will admit, I gave Natural Resource Partners LP [[NRP]] a little more leeway than I did Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] , as it carried with it a phat dividend (over 10% as of today) and it was a royalty play rather than an operating miner (much like fellow Jackson Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] is a gold royalty play), which I thought gave it some “rent safety” over the operators.  No such luck.

You see in prudent Jackson land, there’s only so much loss a play can take, and when NRP broke $19.31 today (a significant support level), it hit our stop, and we sold the remainder (207.555 shares) for a loss of 19.9%. Luckily, I only had 1/2 a position left, having sold the first half at $20.50. Still the bludgeoning (before dividend payments) was substantial.

What was I thinking picking a stock with a symbol so easily dyslexia’d into the acronym for National Public Radio, anyway?   Should’ve been a sign to me …

Luckily, despite these minor setbacks, the rest of the Jacksonians are hammering along hard enough to keep the overall returns over 21.6% since inception on May 1st. The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] remain my top winners (even as I added to my TCK a scant few weeks ago at current levels, my blended return is still 40%).

I believe the gold and silvers are going to take off here as we head into the last months of the year, as they are wont to do historically. In that regard, IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] are my top performers, with returns of 44.64%, 39.13% and 30.05%, respectively, since May 1st inception. Of those, I think SLW will have the greatest momentum as we head towards Christmas, because silver continues to be undervalued compared to gold.

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Speaking of gold opportunities, I threw out New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] yesterday, and although it didn’t move an inch either way today, I continue to think it a strong play here, especially on a pullback to the $3.30 area.   If we’re not that lucky, I believe it’s a buy over $3.55 as well. 

I also wanted to point out another junior that I think will be a mover going forward here — Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] .   Have a look at the daily chart:

And really, I think the weekly should cinch it for you.  It’s so eeeeeasy– a cup and handle, for goodness sakes!  And on the weekly, no less.    My take:  wait for that break of $3.21, and then… blammo!

 

One last admonition — watch [[UUP]] tomorrow for your signal.  A break above $23.31 or so will mean a little bit more waiting on the gold selections.  But if  UUP turns down again– towards my target of $23.05, that will probably mark the break out run of a great many junior gold and silver plays.

Best of luck to all my Jacksonian stalwarts. 

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0qlOEKkBWA 450 300]

I was just off reading some other blogs and I’m finding that there’s quite a bit of misery out there.  You might imagine from where that misery stems, if you are wont to read more “misery oriented” blogs than this one.

In one particular meloncholy review,  I even started to feel sorry for my friend Tim, The Enchanter.   He’s a little bit down in the jowls these days because the world hasn’t fallen off a cliff as properly prescribed quite yet.   It’s a monetary phenomenon, I says.  It’s a conspiracy of Owls and black flutes, he says.   Whatever.

I’m here for some solace for the bearish and perhaps an idea or two.   My friends, we are coming to an exciting time of year and I hope you will bear with me.  September, you see, is a traditional crap pile for all that is Equity.   Something to do with the Medieval harvest payments, or the rise of the Mayan Moon, but it’s always been our worst month for stocks since your grandmother can remember.  That should make some of our Ursines, happy, no?

The good news for we Jacksons is that August comes before it, and August marks the start of the precious metal bull season on into it’s tumescent end in Happy Claus.  In other words, it’s a good idea to buy gold and silver here in Jewelry’s Worst Month because it only gets better as everyone picks out their silver pumpkins brooches, gold encrusted turkey lame dresses and platinum filigreed Christmas chokers in the coming crispiness.

And don’t even get me started about back to school.  

Let’s have a look at our friend Baby Huey ($HUI) shall we ?  Here’s a triangle you’re going to love by next month:

You’ll note we’ll be “do or die” by mid-September.  Want to make a wager on whether we break out before then? 

Now a specific pick that I really like, and have for a while, Non-Jackson though it may be.   Here’s the old chart of New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] I gave you back on May 21st, 2009:

Now here we are three months and 45.5% higher at $3.49, but don’t thank me just yet.   I think we’re getting ready to rock the Casbah in an unctious and lugubrious manner.  Checkout what chart analysis number two brings forth:

Yeah, it’s pulled back a little on Friday, but that may mark your opportunity.  Frankly, I’d be surprised if  they bludgeoned this little junior miss back to $3.25, but if “they” did, that would be a magnificent place to throw in an order.   I know I will be looking to add here on Monday, or maybe Tuesday if we do get  second day of pullback, and I will keep you updated.  

These juniors can really move with this gold bull, so make sure you keep an eye on Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , [[BAA]] and their brethren, even as you line your portfolio with sturdy Jacksons for the coming Fall (possible pun intended). 

Best to you all.

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It’s 1:50 PM and I see [[UUP]] banging up against the downtrend line and fully expect it to turnover here right now.

Target $23.05. Good time to grab some of your favorite options play for quick snicker-snack of your Vorpel blade.

“Abort! Abort! Abort!” signal is upon a break of our aformentioned $23.28 to the northside.

I am looking at [[PAAS]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] , Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , and [[GDX]] .

Caution: Follow me at your own risk, and make sure you Wait for the rollover!

Best to you, Jake out.

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UPDATE:  Bot 50 Sept $34 calls on GDX @ $5.60 .   Caveat: If you follow me into GDX you may contract “Midas Touch Syndrome” and end up turning your favourite (sic) poocho into a very valuable knick knack, and you may lose money too.

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