[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cnAfSsk2wc&feature=fvw 450 300]

A Gentleman

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Interviewed above is a man who is arguably one of the best rock and roll musicians of all time, with an indelible legacy that will never be questioned by the more serious students of the genre.   And yet Levon Helm is also indubitably a Southern Gentlemen in the truest sense.  Born to poor cotton farmers in an Arkansas town just west of the Mississippi, he was brought up with impeccable manners, respect for others, and a healthy fear of God.   The phrase “salt of the Earth” is cliched, but applies here if anywhere.

Note the patience, humility and even respect he allows the over-earnest newsdork interviewer?  A teevee journalist who, much like myself and most of my urban Northeastern brethren, reveals a contrasting self-important air of arrogance that far belies his functionary status?   It’s awe-inspiring.

Hell, I’ll say it– Levon is inspiring.    And his example and those of many of his generation is one of the major reasons I wanted my kids to grow up down here.   I wanted them to meet people with the quiet American dignity you see in this clip.  People like my children’s grandparents, and their grandparents’ kin from the Appalachian regions.   Because make no mistake, even in the South, folks like Mr. Helm are slowly becoming a rarity.

Every day, therefore,  I will strive to be more like him– not in talent, of course, but in pursuit of that humilitous honorability — as I believe that a most worthy goal.

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On the trading front, I covered a large number of my silver sold calls today, specifically SLW, PAAS, MVG and EXK, all at 35-55% profits.   I did this mostly because I think we will have a short term rebound here.   Maybe 2-5 days.   I find it hard to believe we are done, however.  

I think the noobs who piled into the PM markets in December still need to be shaken like rats running from the terrier.   What fun is a bull, after all, if it’s weighted down by noobs? 

I kept almost all of my gold hedges, not because I don’t think gold will bounce as well, but because the silvers are more volatile, and I have alloted the gold calls (sold) a bit more rope.   I will likely step out of them tomorrow morning.

The dollar is ramping, and it may return to our old mid $81 resistance levels once again.   I am preparing, and prepared.   You should be as well.

Lastly, if you are looking at the rare earth’s we’ve dabbled in recently, you should think of paring some here.  I expect a larger market correction to be upcoming, and that means the hottest stocks will be the hardest slapped.  Take note on AVL, as well as REE and MCP if you have any (I’ve neither).

Best to you all.

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Remember Children, Listen to Jake and NEVER Suck Your Thumbs!
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As I suspected (though I was never bog-standard certain), gold and silver broke their fevers today on a brief pop on the dollar. Listen, they’ve needed a rest for some time now, so let’s not get overexcited. If you have been following the blog, you’ve got a tonne of cash and you are probably riding some hedged covered calls as well.

If not, let that be a lesson to ye. Bad news is, I don’t think we’re done. Good news? We’re still in a bull here and the only thing that you’re giving up here by holding and waiting is a little opportunity cost.

And who knows, we could reverse and take off here tonight (I doubt it), and you could be ahead of the game. In the meantime, I stand and wait, and look for opportunities in some of these ridiculous rare earth metals. They too could use a rest, but perhaps not as much as our PM friends.

God bless, and stay away from those thumbs tonight…

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And Yes, Rex Grossman Was Screwed, Too
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Didn’t take long for the first of my semi-facetious predictions to fail did it?  Well it did, and my Giants, despite winning today over a semi-revitalied Rex Grossman-led Redskin team, were drubbed out of the playoffs by the Green Bay Fudge Packers, who beat them this week and dah Bears (see above) today.

There’s nothing like just missing the playoffs to make for the worst of all possible worlds.   Despite a 10-6 record, my team will be on the sofa next weekend, and — adding insult to injury — will likely keep the Angry Leprechaun, Tom Coughlin and his offensive (in the literal sense) coordinator, Captain Kangaroo Kevin Gilbride in the driver’s seat for at least another year.   The final coup de grace — we’ll get a crappy “playoff level” draft pick because there will be playoff teams that have worse records picking behind us. 

I guess I will become a Jet fan for the few short weeks for it to take them to snuffed out by Eli’s older brother or some similar such ignonimy.  Gosh knows there’s no one in the NFC honorable enough to root for, and I am beginning to really despise the Packers, I’ll have you know.

But never as much as Dawg Killah and the Eagles, no fear.

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As for me, I ended the year up a gigantaload.  So much so, compared to year end 2009, that you’d probably not even believe me, so I won’t boast about it.  Suffice it to say that I was still piling on win in huge amounts even on the last day of the year, despite being about 40% hedged and having about 30% in cash.   Ironically, my largest single gain on December 31st was Monsieur’s FTK, which I do believe I shall keep for a while, ovah heah.

I also believe AVL — the old Avalon Metals now on the Amex Exchange — will continue to shine it’s bizarre functional-if-rare metallic lights on my precious laden portfolio.   I will have more to say on the rare earths as we move forward– I am digging diligently as you read this…

Without question silver will continue to shine, and SLW, PAAS, SSRI, MVG, SVM, CDE, HL, and yes EXK will continue to shine.   I will let you know when I will begin piling in on a leveraged basis soon enough.  I think the dollar remains on the edge of the knife (it is rallying as I type this), but until it breaks, I will remain positioned as I am.

We will also look into the ags, and I think it is time to re-recognize the farmer Jacksonians — ANDE and MON again, as strong picks going forward.  TC and TCK, the molybdenum brothers, should also perform here.

I haven’t posted the Jacksons as of late, but if you were to have held them since this blog’s inception (May 1st, 2009), you’d be up 125% right now, and that’s with a negative return on both MON and TBT, both of which I urge you to continue to accumulate this year.  

Stick with me kid, we are going places in 2011….

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This end of the year is something else, no? You can feel the bull flows as they pulse through the market, and yet, they are driven much like all else, by the destruction of the dollar.

A destruction that is — seemingly — ahead even of my own most draconian schedule.  But I must have proof, I must have evidence before I send my portfolio over the cliff of hard asset liquidity.

Some of this action seems just a bit too pat for my tastes, and I am most assuredly nervous, and buttering my rye bread three times before slapping my slices together with fresh arugula, holland tomatoes, and thinly sliced roast mutton.  I will eat many samiches before making a definitive move.

I note that the dollar is sliding off a cliff again, and gold is heading to new highs whilst silver has already achieved them ($30.77 as of this sitting).

Yet the $HUI (my favored “Gold Bug Index“), and more important, my silver stocks still lag their early ecember highs. True PAAS is acting a champion and EXK is inching towards old highs (though selling off this afternoon).  SLW, too, is not close to $42, and this gives me pause.

I have decided to leave it up to the dollar, and these two charts (weekly and daily, respectively) will give you all the information you need.   The lines of resistance on the weekly are quite clear, and brought to you by Signorelli Fibonacci himself.   These weekly fibs tend to hold up quite well, which doesn’t bode happy news for our greenback:

Like the 200 week EMA in the above weekly chart, the daily provides us with an adequate signal — the 50 day EMA — which should prove conclusive given the already oversold condition in the daily:

  

 If we get a rebound, I will hold onto my hedges on my PM positions.   If we see further declines — and especially through these resistance levels — I shall be taking them off, and most likely piling back in aggressively.

That is all, really.

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Sorry Florida fans, we’ve got your “Urban Meyer Magic” right here in the Lou, and he’s not going anywhere.

(At least not this year)

No, seriously, though… do you think it’s a coincidence that The University of Florida, with the best recruiting classes over the last ten plus years, bar none, sucked balls this year without Defensive Coordinator Charlie Strong?  

And do you believe it a coincidence that Florida head coach Urban Meyer has decided to resign again this year, and flee back to the bosom of his family and “good health?”  C’mon.

I happen to think it’s no coincidence, especially as Charlie Strong has managed to not only make the Cards bowl eligible in his first year as head coach (after 27 years as an assistant at various racist SEC-Conference schools), but also to win their first bowl since winning the 2007 Orange Bowl four years ago (with former, now Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino), 31-28 over Southern Mississippi.

Okay, so it was the Beef O’ Brannigans Beer & Cheesenutz and Light Draft Bowl, but you have to start somewhere right?  And that “Florida Magic” —  which really stemmed from Charlie’s ability to recruit fine young men from Florida –has already begun to bear fruit.  Note this week’s news — as Louisville has landed it’s first five star recruit, Teddy Bridgewater of Northern Miami, since hometown boy RB Michael Bush (now with the Raiders), signed seven years ago.   Here’s the skinny:

Miami Northwestern quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, a five-star recruit who is widely considered to be one of the best dual threat quarterback prospects in the county, announced his commitment to coach Charlie Strong and the Louisville Cardinals earlier today. Bridgewater, a one-time Miami commit who reopened his options after Shannon’s termination, made it clear that the chance to get on the field early was the biggest factor in his decision.

 

That’s right, they stole this guy from “The U” — Miami University — his own hometown school.  Now that’s strong… that’s Charlie Strong.   Looking forward to watching my Cards continue to kick ass until the SEC steals Charlie back, swallowing crow on their 27 year mistake.  I fear will ultimately be our porridge, and am resigned to it.

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Speaking of “resigned to our porridge,” I am ultimately resigned to a pullback here, and have begun hedging my large PM positions with sold “in the money” calls on my largest pieces.

I sold 80 $34 strike February calls for SLW today, for example.   I also have written call orders in for EXK, ANV, IAG and several others that have yet to fill.  I also sold 10k shares of GSS today at $4.79, which was 45% of my position.  

I plan to keep on with these moves as we go to year end.  I am writing calls because I’ve already taken egregious gains this year, and would like to defer any additional taxable gains into next year.  Also, I would like to maintain my “core position” in many PM positions despite my inclinations toward lower prices in the near term.  Silver, however is looking like it will pull back in dreadful fashion.   Be apprised.

One other thing, I must take the opportunity to brag on my “rare earth metals” position in AVARF, which I will likely trim by 30 to 50% tomorrow.  After holding for about a month, that sucker took off today with a newly announced AMEX listing.  Sometimes it’s as simple as that.

Best to you all, my gente.

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I have finally finished my 2011 Predictions.  That exercise, combined with the Worst Giant Loss in Two Centuries has sapped my creative energies and limited my blogging potential.

Let’s leave it tonight with my assurance that I will be hedging many of my positions again this week.  The dollar is struggling, but so too are gold and silver, which tell me that we are at a  short term peaking period.   I don’t think we get to the end of the year unscathed.

Prepare ye, and good night.

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