Damned Rookie Mistake (Have a Nugget Anyway)

Nuggetear

_________________

Aw geez, I just had an extremely clever and full of info blog post to make up for my long absence.  In it, I went over the weather conundrum, my summer exploits, the state of our miserable economy as guided by the clown show in Washington, etc. etc.

But like a dumbass, when I went to insert my graphic, I inadvertently went “away” from the site and lost the whole fucking caboose.  Goshdamnitalltohell. Fuck me.

My apologies, I’ll try to summarize.

One, I’ve been buying NUGT for five weeks to various painful degrees of success.

Two, the 120-month exponential moving average on the dollar ($USD for you Stockcharts buds) was breached for the first time in a decade in late 2002, leading to our glorious metals revolution.  Since then, the dollar has bumped but not pierced that line on a monthly basis FOUR TIMES since that initial drop, all of those time led to sad days upon the ascending attempt (the saddest effort ending the first time in February of 2009) and happy, glorious days upon the subsequent failures (remember March 2009 friends?), at least for we PM fans.

Three, the last attempt lasted THREE PLUS MONTHS, from March to June.  We are now enjoying another rapid descent.  If we turn back up again here, on the dollar, I can probably tell you the PM bull is dead.  If not, we are headed to Nirvana once again, sans the blown out brains of the lead singer, etc.

Here’s the thing, don’t buy NUGT tomorrow, as it will probably pull back on a test of $1350.  However, if we breach that level like “butter” with no pullback, be prepared to get aggressive.  In the meantime, we might get a present from SLW‘s “miss” tonight.  AG, EXK and SLW are nascent monsters once again.

All that said, you should also have TBT, as the bonds are beginning their own slow motion train wreck, courtesy of the Bernanke-Obama Hubris Nexus.

Be well.  I appreciate you all.

_______________________________________

 

 

 

Goin’ Cowboy

_____________________________________________________________

Crushed? Debilitated?  Blown out beyond all reason?  Yes, you could say that.

Sentiments levels?  Dead!

Long term bull trend? Dead!

Neidemeyer?  Dead!  (Ok, so Animal House was on tonight)

All kidding aside, we saw a similar “interruption” in the last great secular  bull cycle in the mid-70′s (’74-76) when the Fed and the Fisc made promises to “Whip Inflation Now.”  That 50% pullback from was followed by a 350% price move to the peak in 1980.   Are we in for the same shennanigans?  Well, we’re now 36%+ off the highs in the gold price, and more than 67% off in the Gold bugs ($HUI) index.

What’s even crazier is the stretch $HUI has taken below it’s 200 day moving average, the traditional “revert to the mean” line of demarcation.  Usually, if we get more than 20% below that level, we are going to see a reversion.   We are now 46.5% below the 200 day Simple Moving Average.

If I had any credibility left I’d tell you I’m looking for a bounce here.  So maybe consider that comment ironically, if that helps….

$HUIdaily

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My best to you all, really!

_____________________________________

Tomorrow I Shall Purchase Shares

flycement

_________________________________________

I think gold’s flirtation with $1400 is drawing to a close, and we will soon join the great asset swell.  I am thinking about a small “opener” in NUGT.   I’m of the mind we will proceed to $20 with long due haste, where many gaps will be filled, to much rejoicing.

Then we will rest.

The nice thing is that we could get knocked back to $10 before the morning even starts, but that would be an even better launch pad.  Play with stops at the lows.  That is all.

And yes, even the dogs will have their day here soon, but why not start with the more quality stuff? RGLD, SLW and AUY, along with the dividend bearers (NEM and AEM my favorites).

_____________________

Emergency Derby Picks

Can Early Favorite Orb pull a “Big Brown” and win from the far outside post position?

___________________________________________________
My apologies for not ringing in this week, but Derby Week is like Mardi Gras down here and I’ve a lot of responsibilities. Many of them include chaperoning Large Net Worths around, paying close attention to their words of wisdom, and occasionally matching them bourbon for bourbon, deep into the evening.

Gold an silver seem to be hanging in reasonably well, here, and $1,450 seems to be holding well. That’s a level to keep your eye on. In the meantime, I like AUY, NEM, AEM, and of course SLW and RGLD. All on sale now.

As for the Derby itself, I have to admit a certain loyalty to Rick Pitino’s magic horse, Goldencents, which, donning Kevin Ware’s #5 at Santa Anita, scorched the pack for the highest Beyer speed rating of any of the Derby preliminaries (105).  Nobody else came even close to that in the Derby prelims, which lends the cold credibility.

I also like Normandy Invasion, and not just for the cool, retro-WWII name.  I liked the way Normandy was making good time to almost overtake Verrazano in the Wood Memorial at New York’s Aqueduct Racetrack last month.  That race was a mile and an eighth.  I think with the extra 1/8 of a mile left in the Derby, Normandy should be sitting pretty.

Last I like the big winning colt, Orb… caution, this horse will likely be the favorite once all the Louisville Cardinal fans (Pitino’s GoldenCents) and multi-Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel fans (he will ride mud horse favorite Revolutionary) get too drunk to remember to bet by the 11th race.  Orb has done nothing but win, and is coming off a sparkling win in the Florida Derby.  The problem with this horse is it’s coming off the 19th hole, which has been a traditionally tough place to win from.  Big Brown, however, won from #20 position in 2008 (see above) so anything is possible if you have a super horse.  The question remains… is Orb enough of a Super Horse to win it?

Tune in tomorrow evening at around 6 pm on NBC!  Look for me hanging off one of the balconies, hopefully not by one of my more delicate extremities.

Best to you all, and happy happy Derby!

___________________

$1,400 is Key Here

Gold shorts
_________________________

The 1,350 to $1,400 area is going to be important here.   We banged against $1,400 a couple of times over the past two days and were not able to surpass it until this  early this morning, when we had a quick break and then a jet to over $1,420.  There was a lot of selling into that break, and so a retest of $1,400 will be increasingly important to see if this will be a failed bear flag or an actual recovery from the recent oversold condition. 

We are as of this writing, trading at $1,407.

There is a possibility that we could snap back extremely hard on this recent down-plunge.  There are stories all over the internet about large physical purchasing going on.  This could be anecdotal (well, it IS anecdotal), or it could reflect the difference between the paper and physical markets.   If the last couple of days action was a desperate move to combat an imminent physical delivery problem (as some have speculated), we could see a torching of the shorts like none have encountered since early 2009.   Stay vigilant and nimble here.

______________________

Was it Over When the Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor?

________________________________

I don’t need to tell any of you who were paying attention about Friday’s crater job on the precious.  Coming about on the Friday before options expiration week, at at the end of a long and dreary down cycle, it certainly looked nicely timed to shake the trees loose of many golden and silver ducats.  Friday was a nice day to make that first physical purchase and tomorrow morning may be even better as a result of the follow through.

I’m holding on to what I’ve got for the almost inevitable mean reversion play here.  The precious miner bullish percentage index (“$BPGDM“) is at absolute ZERO.  The last time we hit zero on that scale was in December of ’08, at the very nadir of the financial meltdown.  What’s more the Hulbert gold sentiment rating is off the chart completely (yes, below -20, otherwise known as “uncharted territory.”)  We lost another $50 tonight before the rebound, and we could even see $1400 tomorrow.  Is this the time to give up the ghost?  No, it’s blood in the streets time.   You know what Mr. Rothschild said about the time to be looking to buy, right?  Consider that the Buying on Weakness number for GLD was its highest ever on Friday at $144 mm in block trades.  That’s the big boys out collecting.

The best bet right now is physical, and or waiting for the turn, with wariness and apt cunning.  Fly got some AG on Friday, and while he may have been a touch early, I think he’s got the right idea.  The fast flyers will rebound 20+% when this plunge is over.  I also like the fat dividend alpha males like AEM and NEM here… they too have been beaten down over-harshly.

Hang on, folks, we’ve been through these before.

Best to you all.

_______________________

 

Damned Rookie Mistake (Have a Nugget Anyway)

Nuggetear

_________________

Aw geez, I just had an extremely clever and full of info blog post to make up for my long absence.  In it, I went over the weather conundrum, my summer exploits, the state of our miserable economy as guided by the clown show in Washington, etc. etc.

But like a dumbass, when I went to insert my graphic, I inadvertently went “away” from the site and lost the whole fucking caboose.  Goshdamnitalltohell. Fuck me.

My apologies, I’ll try to summarize.

One, I’ve been buying NUGT for five weeks to various painful degrees of success.

Two, the 120-month exponential moving average on the dollar ($USD for you Stockcharts buds) was breached for the first time in a decade in late 2002, leading to our glorious metals revolution.  Since then, the dollar has bumped but not pierced that line on a monthly basis FOUR TIMES since that initial drop, all of those time led to sad days upon the ascending attempt (the saddest effort ending the first time in February of 2009) and happy, glorious days upon the subsequent failures (remember March 2009 friends?), at least for we PM fans.

Three, the last attempt lasted THREE PLUS MONTHS, from March to June.  We are now enjoying another rapid descent.  If we turn back up again here, on the dollar, I can probably tell you the PM bull is dead.  If not, we are headed to Nirvana once again, sans the blown out brains of the lead singer, etc.

Here’s the thing, don’t buy NUGT tomorrow, as it will probably pull back on a test of $1350.  However, if we breach that level like “butter” with no pullback, be prepared to get aggressive.  In the meantime, we might get a present from SLW‘s “miss” tonight.  AG, EXK and SLW are nascent monsters once again.

All that said, you should also have TBT, as the bonds are beginning their own slow motion train wreck, courtesy of the Bernanke-Obama Hubris Nexus.

Be well.  I appreciate you all.

_______________________________________

 

 

 

Goin’ Cowboy

_____________________________________________________________

Crushed? Debilitated?  Blown out beyond all reason?  Yes, you could say that.

Sentiments levels?  Dead!

Long term bull trend? Dead!

Neidemeyer?  Dead!  (Ok, so Animal House was on tonight)

All kidding aside, we saw a similar “interruption” in the last great secular  bull cycle in the mid-70′s (’74-76) when the Fed and the Fisc made promises to “Whip Inflation Now.”  That 50% pullback from was followed by a 350% price move to the peak in 1980.   Are we in for the same shennanigans?  Well, we’re now 36%+ off the highs in the gold price, and more than 67% off in the Gold bugs ($HUI) index.

What’s even crazier is the stretch $HUI has taken below it’s 200 day moving average, the traditional “revert to the mean” line of demarcation.  Usually, if we get more than 20% below that level, we are going to see a reversion.   We are now 46.5% below the 200 day Simple Moving Average.

If I had any credibility left I’d tell you I’m looking for a bounce here.  So maybe consider that comment ironically, if that helps….

$HUIdaily

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My best to you all, really!

_____________________________________

Tomorrow I Shall Purchase Shares

flycement

_________________________________________

I think gold’s flirtation with $1400 is drawing to a close, and we will soon join the great asset swell.  I am thinking about a small “opener” in NUGT.   I’m of the mind we will proceed to $20 with long due haste, where many gaps will be filled, to much rejoicing.

Then we will rest.

The nice thing is that we could get knocked back to $10 before the morning even starts, but that would be an even better launch pad.  Play with stops at the lows.  That is all.

And yes, even the dogs will have their day here soon, but why not start with the more quality stuff? RGLD, SLW and AUY, along with the dividend bearers (NEM and AEM my favorites).

_____________________

Emergency Derby Picks

Can Early Favorite Orb pull a “Big Brown” and win from the far outside post position?

___________________________________________________
My apologies for not ringing in this week, but Derby Week is like Mardi Gras down here and I’ve a lot of responsibilities. Many of them include chaperoning Large Net Worths around, paying close attention to their words of wisdom, and occasionally matching them bourbon for bourbon, deep into the evening.

Gold an silver seem to be hanging in reasonably well, here, and $1,450 seems to be holding well. That’s a level to keep your eye on. In the meantime, I like AUY, NEM, AEM, and of course SLW and RGLD. All on sale now.

As for the Derby itself, I have to admit a certain loyalty to Rick Pitino’s magic horse, Goldencents, which, donning Kevin Ware’s #5 at Santa Anita, scorched the pack for the highest Beyer speed rating of any of the Derby preliminaries (105).  Nobody else came even close to that in the Derby prelims, which lends the cold credibility.

I also like Normandy Invasion, and not just for the cool, retro-WWII name.  I liked the way Normandy was making good time to almost overtake Verrazano in the Wood Memorial at New York’s Aqueduct Racetrack last month.  That race was a mile and an eighth.  I think with the extra 1/8 of a mile left in the Derby, Normandy should be sitting pretty.

Last I like the big winning colt, Orb… caution, this horse will likely be the favorite once all the Louisville Cardinal fans (Pitino’s GoldenCents) and multi-Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel fans (he will ride mud horse favorite Revolutionary) get too drunk to remember to bet by the 11th race.  Orb has done nothing but win, and is coming off a sparkling win in the Florida Derby.  The problem with this horse is it’s coming off the 19th hole, which has been a traditionally tough place to win from.  Big Brown, however, won from #20 position in 2008 (see above) so anything is possible if you have a super horse.  The question remains… is Orb enough of a Super Horse to win it?

Tune in tomorrow evening at around 6 pm on NBC!  Look for me hanging off one of the balconies, hopefully not by one of my more delicate extremities.

Best to you all, and happy happy Derby!

___________________

$1,400 is Key Here

Gold shorts
_________________________

The 1,350 to $1,400 area is going to be important here.   We banged against $1,400 a couple of times over the past two days and were not able to surpass it until this  early this morning, when we had a quick break and then a jet to over $1,420.  There was a lot of selling into that break, and so a retest of $1,400 will be increasingly important to see if this will be a failed bear flag or an actual recovery from the recent oversold condition. 

We are as of this writing, trading at $1,407.

There is a possibility that we could snap back extremely hard on this recent down-plunge.  There are stories all over the internet about large physical purchasing going on.  This could be anecdotal (well, it IS anecdotal), or it could reflect the difference between the paper and physical markets.   If the last couple of days action was a desperate move to combat an imminent physical delivery problem (as some have speculated), we could see a torching of the shorts like none have encountered since early 2009.   Stay vigilant and nimble here.

______________________

Was it Over When the Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor?

________________________________

I don’t need to tell any of you who were paying attention about Friday’s crater job on the precious.  Coming about on the Friday before options expiration week, at at the end of a long and dreary down cycle, it certainly looked nicely timed to shake the trees loose of many golden and silver ducats.  Friday was a nice day to make that first physical purchase and tomorrow morning may be even better as a result of the follow through.

I’m holding on to what I’ve got for the almost inevitable mean reversion play here.  The precious miner bullish percentage index (“$BPGDM“) is at absolute ZERO.  The last time we hit zero on that scale was in December of ’08, at the very nadir of the financial meltdown.  What’s more the Hulbert gold sentiment rating is off the chart completely (yes, below -20, otherwise known as “uncharted territory.”)  We lost another $50 tonight before the rebound, and we could even see $1400 tomorrow.  Is this the time to give up the ghost?  No, it’s blood in the streets time.   You know what Mr. Rothschild said about the time to be looking to buy, right?  Consider that the Buying on Weakness number for GLD was its highest ever on Friday at $144 mm in block trades.  That’s the big boys out collecting.

The best bet right now is physical, and or waiting for the turn, with wariness and apt cunning.  Fly got some AG on Friday, and while he may have been a touch early, I think he’s got the right idea.  The fast flyers will rebound 20+% when this plunge is over.  I also like the fat dividend alpha males like AEM and NEM here… they too have been beaten down over-harshly.

Hang on, folks, we’ve been through these before.

Best to you all.

_______________________

 

Previous Posts by JakeGint
Wrapped Tight
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