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Don’t Get Too Cocky…

After all, this is why we are socking away wins for a rainy day:

deficit

So yeah, the Jacksons (up a collective 36.5% since May 1st as of today’s close) may be doing egregious “loaves and fishes” type miracles with your cash pile, but let’s keep our nose to the grindstone, as you’ll need that dough when a ham on rye, hold the mustard sets you back $36.25.

Remember we are all about dollar destruction here.   Take a look at that chart and ask yourself if the Congress and the Fed are going to support that kind of spending (not to mention the huge Medicare and Soc Sec liabilities) via the good old fashioned “belt tightening” of increased taxation and spending cuts?  

As they say in Texas, “No, hail no.”

So let’s be opportunistic and remember that there will be pullbacks in these metals, but that we need to manage our positions to maximize cash flow in this critical period.   For me that means selling calls at critical junctures, and even trimming the sails to raise cash from time to time.  If I’m reading things right, however, you are in for a bumpy, but enjoyable continuing ride here.

Keep in mind Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] has broken to new highs yet again, and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] remains a favourite pick.   I may take some leverage (ie, bot calls) off the table in Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] soon, as it’s run faster than it’s brother silvers by far, with over 66.8% returns since May 1st inception, while [[PAAS]] and Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] are only at 43.5% and 29.2% respectively.   I think SSRI especially will gain from here. 

On the junior level [[EXK]] continues to be a junior trooper, and I continue with a leveraged position in [[CDE]] as well, because of the acute lack of overhead.  I also own Hecla Mining Company [[HL]]

On the gold side, IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] remains the monster of the pack, with 85.8% returns since inception, but I’d look for a pullback here before jumping in.   Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] still look like they can pack punch here, however, so keep an eye out on them and yesterday’s mention Gold Fields Limited (ADR) [[GFI]] .  

 Last, non-PM Monsanto Company [[MON]] grabbed back some ground today but continues to be undervalue in the Jacksonian sphere.   Still a “grandkids pick.”   The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] –up over 106.5%  since Jackson inception — is still our leader, and looking for $39 as it’s next “achievment.”

I’ll have more tomorrow, but let’s shut it down with a veritable classic from my youth.   Share it with a favored son of daughter, and it’s likely they’ll never forget it:

  [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7tQVEEPWv0 450 300]

Slange.

__________________

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What I Gots foah Yez

seller

Real quick, I added to two positions today.  First,  Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] :  Probably my favourite (sic) non-Jacksonian.   It’s pulling back here nicely, and I think getting set to take off, as evidenced by strong closing  volume today:

anvdaily

Note what I did with the Fibo’s on this one? Sometimes, I try to “project” a target by aligning the strong fibonacci levels with a support or resistance line. In this case, I’ve put the 38.2% retrace line (it would have to be a “future retrace” of course) right at the bottom of the congestion zone created by the price-volume bar (green box). If this method is near accurate, we should top out of this next blast off at around $10.70. Let’s see if I’m correct.

Also, I bot my favourite (sic) African continent gold play Gold Fields Limited (ADR) [[GFI]] . Luckily, I’ve already saved this one:

gfi_daily

I just love that pretty picture, and added more today at $14.19.  Perhaps a little early, but I’m not too concerned with this one long term.

Last, we cannot ignore earl, and my latest hot shot stock in the development area Parallel Petroleum Corporation [[PLLL]] :

(Update: I’m not going to post the PLLL chart as it’s busted out and looked to be capped at the current buyout price of $3.15 or so. Good job if you were quick like Chanci and got some right away.)

Also watch Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] which has been rambling since we last spoke, and could be trade bait at this juncture.    [[EXK]] also looks like it’s ready to start moving again.    Best to you.

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‘Twas Brillig and the Slithy Toves

jabberwocky

`Twas brillig, and the slithy toves
Did gyre and gimble in the wabe:
All mimsy were the borogoves,
And the mome raths outgrabe.

“Beware the Jabberwock, my son!
The jaws that bite, the claws that catch!
Beware the Jubjub bird, and shun
The frumious Bandersnatch!”

He took his vorpal sword in hand:
Long time the manxome foe he sought —
So rested he by the Tumtum tree,
And stood awhile in thought.

And, as in uffish thought he stood,
The Jabberwock, with eyes of flame,
Came whiffling through the tulgey wood,
And burbled as it came!

One, two! One, two! And through and through
The vorpal blade went snicker-snack!
He left it dead, and with its head
He went galumphing back.

“And, has thou slain the Jabberwock?
Come to my arms, my beamish boy!
O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!’
He chortled in his joy.

_____________
(Note: Above is actual eye witness report of my Fed Dollar battle today)

Not much to report tonight.  A little bit of pullback at midday, but I did indulge in some egregious silver miner [[CDE]] call options (as reported in the earlier thread, I took down 40 Oct. 17.50’s at $2.60) for a lark.  I really do think CDE will be a nice hold here for a bit.

IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] had some run up today (to $14.87!) but then sold off to end the day at $13.40. This stock doesn’t seem to know what to do (it was up again 25 cents in AH), but I would guess it’s going to consolidate along with a bunch of other fast runners here, including even our $HUI index. I still like silver here, as I may have mentioned.

On the non-precious side The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] has broken out over $33 and my next target is $39. Despite all the other rockets popping, this is still my best performing Jackson at +99.6% since our May 1st inception.

Other non PM Jacksons that look strong here are again Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] . Monsanto Company [[MON]] bides its time, but reserves the Hippocratic Oath for now. Other non-PM “hoppers” I like include RTI International Metals, Inc. [[RTI]] , Calgon Carbon Corporation [[CCC]] , Titanium Metals Corporation [[TIE]] and yes, even Alcoa Inc. [[AA]] .

The Jacksonian Portfolio stands at a “mahvelous” 31.4% return for the little more than four months its been in place. I thank you for your patronage.

See y’awl tomorrow.

__________

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Gloria in Excelsis Jackson

Jackson 

Again, there’s no need for braggadocio.  It’s too early yet.

Let’s just recognize that there will be pullbacks, perhaps as soon as this week.   Those pullbacks may take the form of consolidations, or real live gut-rippers like we experienced in rocket ship IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] last Friday.   Take a look at my notes on the Jacksons for further guidance. 

Important to note, however, that we’ve broken out of the long term triangle on the $HUI, and out of the recent June highs, with a close over $409 on Friday.   Next targets are $475 and the old highs of $525.   I am firmly convinced we’ll see both those levels well before Christmas.  This should drive the Jacksons for the remainder of the year, and I think there’s ample room for continued participation here.

Remember this chart from a couple of days back? 

hui_daily

Well, look where we’ve come in two short weeks:

hui_daily1

My favourite (sic) non-Jacksons include Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]]  and Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] on the gold side and [[CDE]] and [[EXK]] on the silver.   I really like the free air on the CDE side.   It could go to the low forties with very little resistance now that it’s broken out of it’s May closing highs.

Here’s the weekly Jackson review… note the monthly is higher than the weekly in this first week of September, because August 31’st was such a down day for many Jacksons.

Name/     %   Portfolio Portfolio     
Ticker 28-Aug 4-Sep Change   Value Impact   Comments
ANDE  $        32.92  $      32.34 -1.76%    $             9,764 -0.10%   Still looking for the break of $33. Soon!
EGO            10.56          11.21 6.16%    $           10,504 0.39%   $11.50 is BTFO target
GDX            40.18          45.02 12.05%    $           13,626 0.98%   Look for pullback this week. BO>$45.25
GLD            93.87          97.53 3.90%    $           11,217 0.26%   Looking for $100.
IAG            12.02          13.84 15.14%    $           17,065 1.55%   In BTFO territory, and consolidating BO.
MON            83.00          82.24 -0.92%    $           13,047 -0.07%   Coiling on low volume
PAAS            19.99          22.45 12.31%    $           13,483 0.99%   BO out of triangle. Pullback level – 21.50
RGLD            39.95          45.98 15.09%    $           12,705 1.15%   Massive two day BO.  Next target $48.65
SLV            14.50          15.97 10.14%    $           12,973 0.79%   Broke weekly DT, over 15.75 resistance
SLW            10.45          11.59 10.91%    $           11,258 0.74%   Massive BO.  Next target $14.
SSRI            18.28          21.09 15.37%    $           12,269 1.13%   Needs $21.50 for BO level
TBT            46.74          47.70 2.05%    $             9,502 0.12%   Bounced from $45 low, now over $47.20 again
TC            11.98          11.89 -0.75%    $             9,787 -0.04%   May have bottomed at $11
TCK            25.20          24.36 -3.33%    $           23,505 -0.47%   May have bottomed at $22.05
Cash (000)  $        0.00  $    12.64 0.01%    $         12,644 0.00%   Same
AVG (weekly)   5.67%    $       193,350 7.41%    
AVG (monthly)   7.88%   Actual cash       
AVG (inception)   32.81%   on cash return 28.90%    

Best to you this week, and watch for pullbacks!

___________________

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The Good News — There Will Be Pullbacks

Slingshot

Listen, I just won’t do it.

I will not.

To boast and brag about the egregious Epic of Gilgamesh-like  wins over the last two days would be… well, it would be unseemly.

Instead, I’ll show why I think this is “something different”  than the last run up we had in late May/early June.   Take a look at this week’s “star” Jackson IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] :

iag-weekly

Yeah, that’s a five-year chart.   And charts looking like this are all over the PM map this week, like drunks at a Calistoga wine tasting festival.  Breakouts on considerable volume.  And yes, there will be pull-backs.  

What’s more, there’ll be more to come.  Remember my $HUI chart from just this past Sunday’s post?   Well, circumstances have certainly accelerated, but it also looks like there’s a lot of room to run just to get back to the old highs…. viz:hui_weeklyiiKeep an eye on the Jacksons as we head into the meat of this breakout.   Besides IAG, there’s also Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] , [[PAAS]]  , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]]  and my favourite (sic) long term gold play Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] .   Also, as I expected, Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] had a nice rebound-breakout day today as well.

Non-Jacksons Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and [[EXK]] are long term favourites…. be well.

____________________

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Bernanke is “the Man Behind the Curtain”

 ManCurtain

Just remember, all this bullcrap you are seeing today is about the dollar and it’s relationship with the rest of the world economy.   If it rallies hard here, it’s because the banks are throwing a scare into the Deflation-minded.   But if you have any questions about where the Fed is willing to go, please hit yourself on the head with a ball-peen hammer for “clarity’s sake” and consult this worthy chart once again (hat tip to DPeezy and ZH for posting yesterday).

If you are really confused, I would get thee to The PPT for a quick infusion of “brain trust.”   The wins in those fora lately have been breathtaking.  It just gets better every time I go in there. 

Back to the dollar rally — which I’m just not sure is for real, frankly.  In fact, it strikes me as more “seasonally oriented” than anything else.   You know — “September sucks, sell, sell?”   My opinion?  That bit of conventional wisdom and a box of Cracker Jacks will keep the monkeys at the Zoo from self-pleasuring, but it will get you little else in this Fed-governed market.   No, the Fed’s first job is to keep the banks liquid, credit spreads tight, and the FDIC afloat.   If you think they won’t sacrifice the dollar to those ends, then please repair back to the chart above for further ball peening.

Granted we are at a critical juncture, as you can see from the chart below.    We are right up against a long term down trend line (at about $23.45) on the [[UUP]] .  After that we have the near term 38.2% (strong) fib line at $23.57 and the 50 day EMA at $23.60.   I would tend think we have officially “bottomed” in the dollar for the near term if these prices are breached on volume.

uup

 

Both the prices of gold and silver  are holding up here as well, which gives me some indication that if money is flowing back to the dollar, it’s not at the expense of the precious metals.   This should offer us some opportunity in our miners going forward, and even today.   The [[HUI]] is bouncing off it’s trendline as we speak.   Happy hunting.

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