Just a word on Jacksonian long termer [[TBT]] , which has taken something of a lashing recently. It’s currently sitting right below a substantial (38.2%) Fibonacci retracement line from the beginning of the September swoon season (i.e., 9/02/08) to the lows on December 18th of 2008. That 38.2% line stands at $47.21, and I think a close below that will indicate a drop to at least $44.90 or so.
For myself, I will “do nothing” for now, save eat a samich (sic). As TBT, like [[SLV]] and [[GLD]] is a “bedrock” pick of mine for the coming troubles, I may hedge it from time to time (which I may do here) but I will not sell my core position. In fact, I mad add if we do dip back below to the $45 area. If we do not get back above the target fib @ $47.21, I will likely sell calls tomorrow on my position, awaiting further entry.
In other news, New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] could drop back down to the trend line again (at $3.34 or thereabouts) but I think I’ll take another 1/2 position at these levels ($3.39).
Follow me only upon full knowledge of all your limbs being blown off in a nasty dynamiting session by these small miners.
Best regaurds (sic), Jake.
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UPDATE: Bot 6k more NGD @ $3.38 (market).
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Jake – Thanks for the head’s up. It’s been back on my watch list, but today’s action looks like it will be a while before I can get back in. Any thoughts on EGO SINO deal?
Well, I’m not happy as a rule, as I would rather (always) to be the acquiree than the acquiror. As an M&A guy by profession, I know that the Winner’s Curse not only exists, but that it’s the rule.
That said, I think this is only a temporary setback, given the assets involved, and that going forward, the overpayment will be absorbed by increased returns in the underlying commodity.
The only time acquisitions work is in a rising tide environment, and I believe we are in one now. That said, I don’t want any of my investments making acquisitions after gold breaks $1,000 an oz.
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JG – how much does it concern you & your metal positions, that the US$ could have a bit of a rally in here?
I’m not overly concerned… gold has risen with the dollar in the very recent past… considerably, in fact.
I am still seeing strengths in the precious metals… which gives me some comfort.
I would like it if my company’s managements would stop raising capital (TC) and acquiring companies (EGO).
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Is that pic in AB?
You should have seen the waves this past weekend…many a “backbreaker”.
I know, I’m pissed… when I was there, it was Lake Michigan or something… one wave every ten minutes… calmest I ever saw it… seriously.
That said, the weather was absolutely unbelievable… perfect temps, nice cool sea breeze. What you pay the big bucks for.
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And no, that pic is Clearwater Beach, FL.
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we should have had a beer at Frenchy’s….moments away from where i reside…NGD is a great long term play..i concur.
Cash — would love to have a beer. Haven’t been in Clearwater since my sophomore year Spring Break, when I remember visiting the first (and maybe only, at the time) Hooters.
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I used to have some clients in Clearwater and St. Pete. in my lawyer days and would have to drive over what was then called The Howard Frankenstein (Howard Franklin ) bridge. Until they widened it over the Bay it was usually a horror show during the week when there was an accident. After doing my stuff in St. Pete I would drive up SR 19 into Clearwater which was always a treat. The traffic made Orlando look tame.
if your ever in the area…lets have a cervesa..
Definitely.
TC still owes me one, so….
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Let me know when you are back in O-Town (Cash-Jake has my e-mail, give me a holler when you are here).
Stay tuned, I will have an off the wall pick for tomorrow…
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Let me guess….ABK?
i know that’s not it but look at that fugger run!
We have 10k shares of ABK, but I just sold 4 at close (1.78)
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Not its not ABK — should have a post out shortly…
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I’ve got 2500 that i’ve owned since early May…not selling til it reaches $2.00! (again)
wattsamattah you?! leaving 8 hunj on the table (closed at $1.80 …4k x .02)
You always want to sell into a rising market, Grasshoppah.
Someday, you will be ready to leave the Shaolin Temple.
But not this day.
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PS — 4k x $0.02 = $80, not $800.
Back to scrubbing the monks’ chamber pots.
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I meant 8 hunj dimes…old habbit leftover from my shylock days
New post —————>>>>>>>>
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