3rd president of US (1743 – 1826)
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With this quote in mind, I want to again call to your attention that we are approaching the “August to Christmas” gold run, which generally includes a concurrent run in the gold and silver miners, as represented by the [[HUI]] index. Almost every year in the oughts since 2000 has reflected this run, save of course last year, when we experienced a 28% loss due to a mass liquidation of all assets.
As reflected in the 2007 portion of the following chart, you can see the $HUI broke over 67% in the August to December period. Note that a return to the old highs ($525) would only require a 44% run from these levels.
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I believe we should see a relatively rapid progression when this thing gets moving — from $375 to the June highs (about $405) and then very possibly back to our pre-crash ’08 old highs in the $525 area. That kind of progression in the $HUI should mean good things for all of our precious Jacksons, including Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] ,IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] , our leveraged royalty play in Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] and our gold ETF [[GDX]] whose $34 strike options I purchased last week for September expiry.
A strong $HUI will mean even better things for the silver Jacksons, as the price of gold is still well over the historic 40x silver “norm” at nearly 65x today. Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] is my number one pick in this space, but [[PAAS]] and even relative laggard Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] should be strong in this coming period.
As for non-Jacksons, I still like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] despite the recent dilution, and Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] and [[BAA]] all look good from the junior gold side, and of course [[EXK]] and [[CDE]] on the silver side. I will also throw Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] out as a possibility because it tends to jump in “hot” precious markets. Be warned, however, this last is a “trade only” position, and not one to keep even one day past its expiration date.
If you want to buy and hold, stick with the Jacksons and a well diversified pool of juniors… one or two of those will be “lotto tickets” and the rest will be largely crap, but you will be happy for the lotto wins nonetheless.
No excuses, ladies and gents. It’s “sarious” (sic) time. See you at the finish line.
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I know I haven’t given you a Jacksonian update in a while, so here’s last week’s results. Note the bludgeoning in Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] due to the UBS (curse them) “bought deal” which means a “sold short” deal to those who are already holders. No matter, once this overhead is sopped up, TC will move again, as will Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] . Get these while they are cheap.
Name/ | % | Portfolio | Portfolio | |||||
Ticker | 21-Aug | 28-Aug | Change | Value | Impact | Comments | ||
ANDE | $ 28.20 | $ 32.92 | 16.74% | $ 9,940 | 1.00% | Big volume leap Friday. $33 is break. | ||
EGO | 11.02 | 10.56 | -4.17% | $ 9,895 | -0.25% | Riding 20-day (10.49) on coil now. | ||
GDX | 39.30 | 40.18 | 2.24% | $ 12,161 | 0.16% | Moving out of consolidation zone (>$40) | ||
GLD | 93.65 | 93.87 | 0.23% | $ 10,796 | 0.02% | Coming out of coil as well, needs $95.50 | ||
IAG | 11.93 | 12.02 | 0.75% | $ 14,821 | 0.07% | Looks to test new highs (12.36+) this wk. | ||
MON | 83.78 | 83.00 | -0.93% | $ 13,168 | -0.07% | Stuck between 20 and 200 day EMA’s. | ||
PAAS | 19.52 | 19.99 | 2.41% | $ 12,006 | 0.17% | Breaking out of EMA coils (20/50/200) | ||
RGLD | 39.50 | 39.95 | 1.14% | $ 11,039 | 0.08% | Closed above 200 day but lagging peers. | ||
SLV | 13.92 | 14.50 | 4.17% | $ 11,779 | 0.29% | Nice leap on volume Friday, targ: $16.04 | ||
SLW | 9.37 | 10.45 | 11.53% | $ 10,150 | 0.70% | Nice move Friday, over $11 = free air. | ||
SSRI | 18.24 | 18.28 | 0.22% | $ 10,634 | 0.01% | Still lagging all MA’s, and peers. | ||
TBT | 49.55 | 46.74 | -5.67% | $ 9,311 | -0.32% | Broke below 38.2% fib @ 47.20, 44.90 target | ||
TC | 14.29 | 11.98 | -16.17% | $ 9,861 | -0.96% | Massive dilution effect from secondary | ||
TCK | 26.73 | 25.20 | -5.72% | $ 24,315 | -0.83% | RSI turning back up again, could be time. | ||
Cash (000) | $ 8.63 | $ 12.64 | 0.01% | $ 12,644 | 0.00% | Added another $4k+ with final NRP sale | ||
AVG (weekly) | 0.40% | $ 182,520 | 0.07% | |||||
AVG (monthly) | 9.91% | Actual cash | ||||||
AVG (inception) | 25.14% | on cash return | 21.68% |
He was also the original bankrupt Jackson? I’m just saying that he was spending beyond his means, no? The algorithm required to get beyond the spam filter here is extremely complex.
He wasn’t corrupt, if that’s what you are inferring. One of the points about which he was most proud was that he left the Presidency (8 years) poorer than when he had entered it.
Of course, the motivational speaker circuit wasn’t as well developed back then.
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Lenny – give it up. Your tired attempts to be amusing are failing miserably.
I wish an angry Dan Henderson would visit all you droll motherfuggers commenting on the spam protection and TELL YOU TWICE to STFU.
Thanks for the charting and updates Jake, I’m sure to be renewing positions in some of your picks, they’ve been very good to me in the past. PAAS, SSRI and SLW all seem primed for a pop and have decent entry and stop points.
Man I hope you picked up some HLCS earlier, I’ve been commenting on it over on CA’s tab since I picked it up a couple of weeks ago – originally bought for a long term hold, I added positions for speculation a little later. Of course could have another massive leg up today after the 36% run Friday, or blow up as it has in the past – difference is now it has sales, last runup it had nothing.
Would be a nice [speculative] biotech pickup to put in a corner of your portfolio and forget about. Science is first rate, ticker is volatile as hell, but I feel even better about my committment after dissecting the company’s website this weekend. The corporate and financial team looks first rate. One thing I’m wrestling with is the float is relatively small – vast majority held by insiders and institutions. They now have sales (a million a pop with .25 mil recurring per sale) and I’d expect they end up with a lot of orders fast, but I wonder if they won’t be having another offering.
Shit, I just pumped a stock….in disclosure I hold a 3x normal position
Thanks Doc, I’ll have a look. You’ve been pretty good with the biotech hand grenades in the last couple of months…
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The stock gods have been amused it would seem…thanks!
damn jake….
Holy crap! Nice!. Unfortunately, I did not get in. I’ll wait and see if it pulls back a little here…
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I’m fucking drinking heavily right now. Figure the CEO is about to be named in a child porn / embezzlement scheme.
All will be forgiven at up 60%+
Good luck.
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Holy Christmas present… 75%!!
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Fack 90%! Now I’m pissed.
Very odd… UUP is off by a nickle here… seems to bode well for Jacksons if it holds.
Off to play in a crappy golf scramble with a very large bourbon drinking human.
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Maybe your group will win something good.
We came in fifth out of 22, not terrible, although I played like a one armed paper hanger.
The Giant hit a freaking shot out of the bunker for eagle that would have made Tiger proud.
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Re $dollar…and horrible typography aside, did you see this over at ZH?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/SeanMaloneRiseFallDollarLarge.jpg
Did not see it, but it’s good stuff… and all true. Note — the Fed’s role.
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Hey Jake:
Did you see this?
As hybrid cars gobble rare metals, shortage looms (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090831/india_nm/india420934)
First thing I thought of was who mines these things and i wonder if Jake has them in his portfolio.
From over on Fly’s Blog SQM Lithium play.
I think TC produces some of them, but no, I would not concentrate on any one substitutable commodity such as those mentioned.
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jake:
Interesting how gold is holding up like a true champ today in the face of stock market happenings
I noticed this also.
NEM and ABX could be some good scalp longs soon for a daytrade.
And maybe DGP.
I think it’s a sign that this dollar move is bullshit.
Stay tuned for a UUP update. Everyone’s doing the “September Sell” sham-dance.
But it’s just that.
iow — A dance, that’s also a sham.
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