Cowen Says Sell $TSLA, Cites Potential for $5 Billion Cash Burn

Jeff Osborne from Cowen is out with a long report today, describing all of the reasons why TSLA is too risky to own here. He’s particularly concerned about the Solar City integration into the model, suggesting it could increase an already onerous cash burn of $3b to upwards of 5 billion monopoly dollars.

Tesla bulls will tell you that Jeff Osborne is a fucking idiot bookworm who doesn’t understand the genius that is Musk. Bears might says Musk is a con artist who preys on the small brains of the Third Estate.

Either way, it makes for good theatre.

“In the 12-month time frame our rating contemplates, we see Tesla as a great company led by a true visionary, but must acknowledge the asymmetric risk/reward profile for the stock at the market’s current valuation,” Osborne wrote.

“Simply, we see a lot more that can go wrong than can go right as the company transitions into Mr. Musk’s greater vision.”

TSLA is off 2% today.

Crude is fucking lambasting to the upside, now higher by 4% on reports that Saudi Arabia slowed production by an astounding 40k barrels per day, down to 10.63m.

Separately, Iran increased production to 3.63m barrels from 3.62 and Iraq’s production increased to 4.638m barrels per day from 4.606 and Kuwait increased production to 2.987m barrels per day from 2.95m. Also, Nigeria’s production increased to 1.456m barrels per day from 1.27m

And, it’s worth noting, that Saudi Arabia’s production in March was only 10.22m barrels per day, more than 400,000 LESS than current production levels.

In other words, the people who are bidding up crude here are criminals of the first magnitude. This is a non-event and the headline of a Saudi production freeze is 100% horseshit.

But, don’t let the inconvenient truths get in the way of a little wanton speculation and depravity.

Oil stocks are through the fucking roof, higher by 4%. But, as you can see below, many of these names are playing catch up to losses endured over the past 3 months.

We’re barely off by 40 points because Draghi wouldn’t commit to extending QE in Europe. The fucking program doesn’t end for another 6 months. Are you people insane for believing a single word out of his filthy Italian mouth? That fucker will mash you up and roll you into a meatball, faster than you can say Godfather 3, if you think he’s gonna let markets and bonds drift away into the oblivion.

QE for life, or until something goes KABOOM!

Bear in mind, markets are in firm control of the central banks and there really isn’t much that can disrupt it, aside from the occasional BLACK SWAN event that seems to rear its head once per annum.

Speaking of which, we haven’t seen an Exodus OS signal in quite some time. The algos are running at a smooth 79% win rate since 2008. I’m very eager to buy the SPY on an oversold signal, but haven’t been afforded that luxury in a while. In case you’re wondering why I’m being so fucking stubborn about trading and getting involved in a bulls market, I told you in the beginning of the year that I’d stick to Exodus trades only. Most of you dismissed my words as subterfuge horseshit. But I’ve proven all of you wrong, yet again.

WTI is up 1.4% and analysts are beginning to get super aggressive with their upgrades. This seems like poppy-cock to me, especially heading into the worse time of year for oil. Frankly speaking, there are better places for your money than a commodity driven market run by a mafia.

TIVO is not up 86%. The merger with RIVO was completed and the new entity is trading under TIVO.

Thus far, the action is light, but acrimonious. Biotech and oil are trending higher, while everything else drifts lower after the ECB disappointed by not extending QE. You people are fuckhead, motherfuckers.

Don’t worry lads, she left the engine of her plane running the whole time for a quick escape, obfuscate things a little, if you will.

Here is Hillary discussing her idea to get the leader of ISIS. How fucking novel. You mean, instead of arming them and creating a vacuum for them to thrive in and sell oil to Turkey, we should get the leader of this group and bring him to justice?

Holy shit, why didn’t Obama think of this?

Hillary Clinton: “We should make it a top priority to hunt down the leader of ISIS” https://t.co/6OZtrfIwim https://t.co/t9y7tqr4BC

— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) September 8, 2016

Things just got hard for traders in Europe, after ECB head, Mario Draghi, declined to prolong his degenerate streak of bond buying idiocy, which is scheduled to expire in March of 2017.

LATEST: ECB has lowered inflation and GDP growth estimates slightly, Mario Draghi says https://t.co/MsiBd9VbOX pic.twitter.com/eUSqcNNkKV

— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) September 8, 2016

He said inflation targets were on track and that the discussion of extending the bond buying program hadn’t been broached. These words are having a deleterious effect on European markets and German bunds, as well as providing a sharp lift in the euro.

Yes, that’s a 5bps move in bunds.

This is all trial balloon shit, people. The ECB is merely trying to gauge market reaction by removing the heroin needle from the arms of traders. Should markets get dicey, these fuckers will go right back to rigging markets, rest assured.

My views on rigged markets is somewhat sanguine. Although I despise it and equate it to cheating and believe it sends out the wrong signal to people, it hasn’t been proven it could fail yet. In other words, markets will continue to get rigged as long as the riggers are free to get away with it and moral hazard doesn’t bear down on economies.

CNBC is also reporting that there aren’t any bids on the table for Simple Jack’s company. As a thriving growth company with endless prospects, Simple Jack will discuss cost cuts at today’s board meeting. Naturally, you can’t just spend money forever without there ever being consequences.

Maybe he’ll fire himself today and let a real CEO take over, so that he could focus his efforts on destroying Square?

Shares of TWTR are off nearly 4% in the pre market, amidst of shroud of uncertainty and rumor mongering.

I’d post some H. Clinton clips if I could get over the moribund, predictable, robotic nature of her responses. She’s well scripted and hardly a human being. Trump, on the other hand, is a wild fucking howitzer, firing shots into the crowd. Highly entertaining.

Trump on receiving a compliment from Putin

Trump’s counter-terrorism plans

Trump on why we should’ve taken the oil

During tonight’s maddening money episode, Jimbo delved into the ongoing saga at Chipotle and paid homage to billionaire/failed hedge fund manager, Bill ‘Montauk’ Ackman. He cited other companies who’ve endured shit being found in their food, even killing kids along the way, only to come racing back stronger than ever. Jim believes investors are about to partake in a great sea change in Chipotle’s fortunes. Jim believes the troubled times at CMG, enduring cataclysmic 25-30% drops in sales, are almost behind them.

As such, he believes Ackman is correct and the shares are a buy at $400.

According to Exodus, both revenues and earnings paint a very grim visual for persons looking to invest in a healthy company.

Valuation wise, the company is priced for the sewers, at 2.7x sales, matching the likes of DPZ, YUM, ZOES and QSR. In other words, CMG isn’t cheap, but instead trades in line with its peers. That is not opinion, but fact. The one notable difference between, say ZOES and CMG, is the former is growing revenues at 25-30% per annum, while CMG is mired in shit (literally)–down by 25%.

The best performing restaurant stocks in the space, over the past 3 months, have been WING, DPZ, EAT, BDL and JACK. Overall, the industry has done nothing, down by 0.59% over the past 3 months.

Participate in my Twitter poll.

Do you have an issue with eating at Chipotle?

Do you have an issue with eating at Chipotle?

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 7, 2016

About 61% of stocks were higher today, led by airlines and apparel stocks. Basically, anything that has lagged was beaten higher today. For those of you who’ve opted out of the market, for the better part of the past 6 months, you missed out again. Enjoyment and the pleasantness of man are spreading around Wall. Men clad with falcon masks, running about with cocaine in their veins, are setting the narrative.

All of the superfluous news, speaking towards a narrative dark with foreboding tales of doom, have proven to be drivel–little worthless pieces of paper written by men employed in a very low station in society.

It might bemuse you to know that “The Fly” is enjoying the scenery, watching apes go to and fro, getting all worked up about things beyond their control. My investments have morphed from super-accelerant turbo speed flame throwing to a more genteel and distinguished version of complacency. My current positions reside in treasuries, gold and short FCX, mainly because it’s a piece of shit worthy of lower prices.

I’ve seen markets like this one dozens of times throughout my professional career running money for others. It ALWAYS ends the same, in a river of tears, strewn with the broken bones of men who delved into the abyss just one last time, for that last great trade, which turned out to be cantankerous.

In the meantime, enjoy the splendour and the democracy and the wanton chicanery, as it works in your favor.