LOST IN THE WOODS

I intended to take the day off, basically because I am not seeing the market right. I started a “best ideas” portfolio inside Stocklabs and I can build long term portfolios all day. But, alas, my trading has been nothing short of abysmal.

The methods I used of chasing stocks higher is now met with steel pipes to the face, as I am forced to churn over and decimate my confidence in seeing the market right. It’s important to note, in my previous blog I had been +60bps after jumping back in and now I closed down 75bps, at session lows — because the stuff I chased was hot money and it cooled later on in the session.

I’ve manifested a gloom over my own decisions because of this slump — now entering the 4th month. Mind you, because of the methods I employ — I am up 10% over this time period. It is a slump for me — but for you — well, it would be outperformance.

I can discuss my shortcomings until blue in the face but it does none of us any good. What I must do is change my methods, away from what is happening and back to what might happen. The pickings are slim and the carry-through on these trades are short dated, leaving the market festooned with the guts of endless traders chasing alpha.

Many things I knew would go up and did — but I hadn’t any shares because, well, I kind of suck right now and it’s ok to accept that — since humility is the mustard seed of greatness, one that must be born out of hardship and sometimes evolution.

I am dialing it down a little, replacing my inane “YOLO” portfolio with my best ideas — which is more or less a longer term oriented portfolio of some of my favorite stocks. I will make changes to it as warranted — but I will not trade it and will not sell simply because the stocks are up. I will manage it like I used to manage portfolios when I managed portfolios for a living.

You can gain access to it inside Stocklabs.

I didn’t trade this morning — because I needed the morning off. I needed the morning off because I have been trading like shit. Alas, and lo and behold, and this goes without saying, I am now up and running +60bps to the good in my trading, +185bps in my best ideas and +60bps in my Quant, which closed out the month +5%. You can see the Quant review here, courtesy of Citizen Squared.

Today’s big story isn’t stocks but ETHEREUM. At $3700+, I am in fact an ETH millionaire again — so you best to shut the fuck up and show me some god damned respect. I like ETH here thru $5k, based off the bones and the guts of all the NFT clowns who are about to get rug pulled. Once they begin to sell their little pictures, demand for ETH will soar, no different from when the market crashes and the dollar rises because all of the stock sellers settle their trades in dollars.

I’d like to offer excuses for my ill performance, capping out the summer without style.I finished the month +0.55%, followed by July’s +1.68%, and June’s +7.62%, clearing about 10% for the entire summer. On the surface it seems like an ok and genteel return. After all, one is busy during the summer and junior is inexorably at the trading turret. Everyone knows the real trading starts in September, after fund managers come back home after a sojourn into depravity and snowy nights on the beaches of NY and Rhode Island.

I tried hard today and really hyper-fixated but still came up short, down 66bps. I went breakeven for a minute and then the market crushed lower at 3:30, forcing me to acquiesce. I ended with a pastiche of SAAS IPOs and some old man stocks. I am torn between wanting the market to totally capsize and my desire to trade in a good tape. This has not been a “good” tape to trade and hasn’t been since February. That doesn’t mean you can’t trade well — it only means the difficulty level is higher. Hence, someone like me, a consummate professional, can only muster 10% over a 3 month stretch, harpooned over and over and hamstrung by discipline and PTSD from previous market crashes that dissuades me, eternally, from taking too much risk.

On the other hand, my Quant gained more than 5% for August, stretching gains to over 28% for the year. This investment process is simple and clean. I will be selling all current Quant positions tomorrow and re-allocating the same day, using the Stocklabs algorithms and some fundamental criteria I favor for the selections.

My trading positions at the close were: BASE, HVBT, BBIG, TNA, KMB, PEP, HSY, TASK, QCOM, BLL, KR, CFLT, DOCS.

Markets are accommodative so I am leveraging long in a bold attempt to erase losses of 150bps. I have accomplished that, so far, more or less breakeven now — but I still have many positions and the day isn’t over.

Big movers in the NFT space, namely TKAT, OCG and DLPN has provided me with an avenue to trade. I am cutting losses faster than gain, ensuring my current holdings are only trending up.

Short squeezes also look good, and I suspect there will be a nice run into the bell.

Inside Stocklabs will breakdown indices by market cap and it’s revealing. Tera Cap -0.2% for the session, while Pennies are +1.6%, indicative of what we’re seeing today — the polar opposite of yesterday.

I am so glad the summer is fast approaching its end and the leaves are on their last days on this earth — for I have been racked with indecision and mediocrity this entire summer. While I haven’t lost money a single month in 10 months, these past 3 months have been nothing short of frustrating. My Quant is up more than 5% this month — 1 trade the first of every month and nothing more than idle cigars and first malt scotch for all of August. My trading has been managed by a psychopath, mixed emotions commingling sentimentality with reality, intermingled with forecasts of uncertainty has all led me to a month where I am flat.

There are many who have done better — trading in concentrated positions and wholly tuned into the cross-currents — easily seeing them as they happen in real time which affords them confidence in action. I know the feeling well and have been there innumerable times. I always harken back, during periods of weakness, to the certainty that I will trade great again — because I have always been able to do it and I am not mentally addled or impugned by drugs, alcoholism or disease. I shall and will trade great again and part of my task now, as I am in a slump, is to limit damage done via poor trading. I do this almost mechanically by stopping out losses quick and limiting position sizes to 5%.

As tempting as it is to toss 20% of my assets into a single idea to crack the spell — I will not do it because desperation breeds ruin and I am not desperate at +208% YTD.

Markets look mixed so far, middling breadth, middling sectors of interest. This being the final day of August, I shall endeavor not to ruin an otherwise milquetoast month.

The headlines will read NASDAQ +136 — but it was mostly Apple and friends gapping up — tera cap breadth at 74% while simultaneously small caps at 33%. On one end of the barbell was Tera caps +0.6% and the other small down 0.7%. If you lost money today, it’s because you’re long a lot of shit and did not adjust.

I recovered my losses and closed flat, a real accomplishment given the lack of movement in many of the smaller capped trading stocks.

Heading into the final trading day of the month it would bemuse me if stocks didn’t trade up. I think it’s fair to say very few things can stop this upward surge; but it is a traders market and requires a level of skill some of you, quite frankly, are not ready to exhibit.

Nevertheless, I remain at your service.

I got to trading late, specifically because I feel like my legs are going to fall off my body and after dropping ANTIFA FLY off to school — I laid down and figured I’d re-awaken at an appropriate time but instead was awoken by two dogs wanting to piss on my floors. So after walking them and making myself some coffee (always French press), I cleared out some of my losers, held the winners, added some new stocks, and decided to write this blog.

The reason why my legs are so soar is because fucking Boston — Mrs Fly made sure we walked every square inch of it and if you live in Boston — there is a good chance I sashayed (no homo) right by your house — led by Mrs Fly who enjoys to power-walk at speeds not comfortable to gentlemen such as myself.

This being the second to last day of the trading money, I injured myself by neglecting the morning trade. However, here I am attempting to make amends and ask for forgiveness from the Gods, which might include a blood sacrifice in order to set my book straight with them and set me back on the path of winship.

I haven’t lost any money this year in any given month and as it stands now I am about breakeven. I will now apply myself, most rigorously, in order to defend my record.

On the matter of “locking in savings” we are doing a 10% off for Pro memberships now. Best way to execute upon this deal is to join now under our basic (cheaper) plan and then upgrade in app to pro. If you are unhappy with our service, something is wrong with you, not us.

This deal expires at the close of trade TODAY.

The recent craze in the crypto world are NFTs. Most of you have heard of them and some of you have bought/invested in them. On the surface, it seems like a “cool” idea to sell avatars as works of art. But then something else happened after Gary V bought his crypto punk for $3m+ a short while ago. The entire space is frantic with panic buyers — people stepping in and diving head first into artless projects — giant rocks and doodles of nothing — distorted pixilated nonsensical pieces of shit.

I’ve completely lost my brain in the NFT world this shit has gotten way out of control now ? pic.twitter.com/mNs2Ieaw8q

— Crypto ?itlord (@crypto_bitlord7) August 26, 2021

While this is happening, ETH and BTC are flat — but there are surges elsewhere in newer/cooler coins like SOL — which has tripled over the past month.

It reminds me of when I was investing in MANA — nice little Metaverse where people were buying PARCELS OF LAND and dropping six figs to do it. It was “cool” up until the idea struck me that the coin itself, MANA, was going up too much, so much that people would not be able to afford playing the game. Shortly after the entire crypto space COLLAPSED and MANA corrected.

During the previous crypto collapse, what preceded it was wanton speculation in DOGECOIN, Cum Rockets, SafeMoon and various other SHITCOINS that ripped because it was mockery and a joke and that joke soon led to tragic losses and real hardship.

Same shit is happening now in the NFT space.

I just paid $453,531 USD for this pic.twitter.com/c0KnXXWxIh

— RookieXBT? (@RookieXBT) August 28, 2021

So what does this portend and will ETH drop again — once these NFT lunatics get cleaned out?

Unfortunately yes — ETH will drop hard and yes most NFTs will drop by 90% in value — because hot money gets cold very fast once the fever breaks.

Perhaps my age is finally showing with this new investment theme; but I just can’t get myself to commit good valuable ETH, which was derived from good valuable stocks, which was derived from good valuable dollars, which was derived from hard work —- and transfer it all into a fucking retarded looking ape scrawled by some moron hopped up on mushrooms hoping to be today’s Picasso, only on the blockchain.

Commodity related stocks are atop the market hierarchy today, thanks in large part to newly minted Fed talking points, all inferred by the zeitgeist to be inherently bullish. We have a system in place that is rigged towards the investor. If you’re begging for a remediation of prices — good luck.

Yesterday I traded by phone whilst cavorting via Boston and did miserably, shedding more than 250bps and putting me back to break even for the month. Without the comforts of my 1000 monitors, I am subject to the whims of the market, which is changeable and unforgiving. We are not in a good market, but just one that doesn’t go down.

Early on, I have bets in tech, crypto derivative plays, and some small floaters. Several people caught SPRT inside Stocklabs yesterday, common and calls, and it angers me that I’m missing out.

Nevertheless, I’m here to send off my daughter to college and she is very happy to be here so I am happy. Tomorrow I depart and won’t be back until October and although it’s somewhat bittersweet to see her go, I cannot help but to think this is the best thing for her.

Busy in Boston today, too busy to partake in trading. Normally speaking, when I am on vacation the markets crash, so bad I want to cry. But this time is different because I am leaving my daughter behind, so the Gods have blessed me with wanton returns.

I just bought a bunch of stuff, all PINNED TO HIGHS, using the Stocklabs time machine apparatus. I left 25% cash, just in case, and will now parlay about the city in search of sustenance.