Reminder (Totally Off Topic): Always Buy Dips of Well Run SAAS

If there is one thing I have pounded into your thick skulls for the past 6+ years is to embrace the science of SAAS. Data analytics in a manner to control consumer trends will only get better. That being said, I am seeing some fine software stocks down in the AHs and many glib fucked for faces on Twitter are declaring them to be dead. Let me tell you something now — you see dips in stocks like EVBG, ZEN, HUBS or CRM — you buy. You do not time them or worry about the conference calls. You rely upon the management to figure it out — because it is their job. Your job is to position your money wisely to grow in a manner that conforms with data analytics.

We are probably in the 5th inning of moving IT departments out of corporations and into the hands of various SAAS companies. Their revenues are, by design, predictable. Valuations are high because they’ve proven to be able to deliver. So when you see dips and fathom yourselves to be gurus for avoiding the ongoing death knell in XYZ trading at 25x sales — just know you’re an idiot and instead of eschewing XYZ you should be buying.

I closed the day +1.05%, fully long again with an LABD hedge.

NOTE: We are doing a Stocklabs live demo on Friday 12pm-1pm to showcase the pro features. This is open to non subs and subs alike. To be invited, email [email protected].

Each day I commit the same mistakes and today I am finally going to learn. I sell the open like a champion, only to get lured back in because stocks always looks so good to me. I want to be lied to, dream the dream, capture the BIG MOVE and be a BIG BOY in a small pond. Alas and this goes without saying, more often than not I am bled out like a zebra on the dry grass, left for dead until I limp away back into cash and reserve my energy for the final half hour.

I am +1% for the session and there are many many stocks providing me with FOMO — shit like LIDR and MNDY — but I shall not look at them for too long otherwise they might hypnotize me.

If forced to take a position, I’d tell you we’re due for a sell off. We’re due for a sell off, not because stocks are bad, but because we’re due for a sell off.

My position will be clear into the closing hour. Small size and hedged, attempting to add onto present gains but not in a greedy way.

NOTE: We are doing a Stocklabs live demo on Friday 12pm-1pm to showcase the pro features. This is open to non subs and subs alike. To be invited, email [email protected].

All of those grandiloquent gains are quickly slipping down the wayside. Stocks like TSLA and PYPL are being beaten to death. I, again, sold every single stock at the open, held my TZA for a little bit and sold it too, and sit handsomely atop my crest +1% on a day when stocks are in miserable dive mode.

My advice to you is to run. I TOLD YOU this shit could not last. We already had the gains for November and now we’re moderating them, which is good for potential dip buyers — but not yet.

We need a little zero-hedging — dip buyers punished brutally under a cavalcade of sell orders. The first big dicked green candle will be sopped up by them and then they’ll be trapped for the eventual table collapse onto their hands, chopping off their fingers down to the knuckles.

I am only long BITO calls now and reserve the right to completely change my mind based upon market themes. The point here is to comport oneself with dignity and to behave moderately in the face of exuberance.

It was a who’s who of Biden plays taking off following the passage of his fucking infrastructure bill. Back in the old days things like this were priced in and stocks would trade lower after the news hit. But today, since everyone is dumb, shit pops after news hits we already knew about. This dichotomy of markets makes it difficult for people with IQs higher than 110 to trade — which is why MEME stocks and the dumbest people on the planet are getting rich, carelessly.

Today’s winning themes, via Stocklabs.

I made just 61bps today, repeating what I have been repeating for months now, which is selling the open, trying my hand at lunch time trade only to drawdown into it and forced to pare down losses into the bell. I had gains of 110bps and said gains were halved for a numbers of reasons, namely the desire to participate in the depravity. Perhaps I shouldn’t. Perhaps this market is too glib to conform with my personality? I feel very strongly about markets and personalities and how some tapes meld well with some and perfect with others.

I went heavily long into the close besides my better judgement, hedged with some TZA — because the intelligence algos in SL said to do so. Sometimes it helps have advanced algorithms at your finger tips, to guide you though and out of troubling tapes.

With gains of 6.5% in the IWM for the month of November, I am beginning to sour on the idea of chasing stocks into National Festival. This is most likely a losers bet and I’ll be sure not to let my imagination run away with itself — but I am likely to really sell the open fast and sit on the sidelines until the afternoon hours from now until then.

I was leveraged long into today and sold out of everything but two things — locking in a gain of 1.07%. I am still long CND (crypto play) and BITO calls. I am thinking if the lunatics running the asylum can jimmy $BTC to $100k by New Year’s, these options will make me a decent sum of money. This is only my second options play in many years, having retired from the world of derivatives after realizing it was bad for my health.

The market is middling today and I am sure a great many of you are sucking your own dicks, proud of yourselves for making coin in a market with AMD +10%. I will take a more sober view of things and position for the overnight trade.

Good day.

Consider the following:

November is unequivocally the single best month for stocks.

Now consider the 6% gains in the IWM and 3% in the QQQ and contemplate the average returns enjoyed by investors during November.

See where I’m going with this?

It’s over Johnny. The bulwark of the gains have already been given to you and now you’ll have to earn the rest. The idea of us repeating last year’s mesmerizing SPAC induced rally is next to zero. The idea we can rally like we did after Trump won in 2016 is a pipe dream. I am for stronger stocks and I am still bullish — but fuck off if you think we’re getting MOAR than 6% for the IWM for November.

The only way I see us getting 10%+ is if the dollar gets hammered to pieces and oil gorilla runs to $100.

With that in mind, I closed Friday fully long and exposed to a morning rape. I’d like to believe we can eek out another 6% from now until National Festival — but the odds are forevermore against me and I am saddened by this — to such a degree — I am crying while writing this bloggery.

All that aside, I am excited about the market and like my chances at extracting a lot more coin out from the market from now until 2022. We are fortunate to be in this position, able to invest money and double and treble it with relative ease. The vast swaths of America are bedraggled by impoverished quarters, dependent on food stamps and criminality in order to improve their lives.

So the next time you look at your statements and curse out the kids because your gains are single digits, remember the neighborhood fentanyl dealer and his plight having to feed his 12 kids via food stamps and be grateful for your bullishit 6 fig brokerage account and 7 fig Coinbase accounts.

When Exodus was around we relied on sharpe ratios to be a final arbiter in making the quant picks. I knew this was a flawed approach because it wasn’t timely enough for my monthly rebalancing. While long term investing is good, I believe emphatically that you must adjust your portfolios often, especially in a fast paced world like this where one year oil is zero and the next $80bbl.

I found that to rebalance once per month is optimal and I also found that combining fundamentals with technicals to find good ideas is the best approach when quasi passive investing. When I buy quant picks I do not touch them for a month, no matter what. If I only depended on technicals for ideas, I would get stuck in an array of hot stocks that pump and then dump, not giving me enough time to capture the gains. However, by setting filters to embody a slew of fundamental criteria, the quant is all but assured to only choose good companies, profitable and growing fast.

Before I launched Stocklabs I worked hard to develop an algorithm that could select stocks on longer time frames and did so with the SL advanced Algo (SAA) suite of tools. We rank stocks on technicals from 1 week to 1 yr. I can attest to the major success of the Quant this year, +40%, to exactly this algorithm. It all but ensures I’m long the best stocks at the best time. My portfolio has switched each month from healthcare focused and retail to tech and to oil. The proof is in the returns. Although my trading account gains are much higher than 40%, I must admit there is a legacy appeal to having a quantitative system like this, one that will be optimized over the next year or so to be even better, surviving me and perhaps managing my estate whilst I’m dead, in order to finance orbital space cannons (OSC) long into the future.

It’s over bears. The good folks at Pfizer revealed today a pill that prevents hospitalization and death by 89%. This isn’t a blood clotting vaccine or something with evil intent injected into your bloodstream — but something akin to horse paste that works to lessen the effectiveness the COVID virus can have on your body.

On this news and other news, I covered my TZA hedge and sold anything I had in my trading that was down and replaced it with reopening stocks. I know we’re already open, but what I mean is customer facing companies whose stocks might benefit from a post COVID euphoria.

Get ready to party and cough into each other’s faces like it’s 2018 lads, for we have beaten COVID and can now thank Pfizer for it.

I lost money today, cucked, and forced to watch other lavishly praise themselves as gurus for making a good amount of coin today. You saw the NASDAQ +128, but it was all NVDA and other mega mega caps. Actual breadth was 37%, which meany most stocks lost money for traders and if you played the AH’s earnings gambits, well then you might’ve stepped on a few landmines.

Shareholders of PTON, LTHM crushed under a plethora of sell tickets, whilst BILL, BIGC and DDOG rose.

Earnings season is always a dice roll and I’d be lying if I did not admit to liking the danger of it all. By the way, if you’re a sub of Stocklabs — use our newswire for earnings news. If you’re not, I have something for you too — a free newswire.

I closed out very long but with a TZA doubled sized hedge which will do very little if we tank, other than to assuage my emotions to feel safer when I’m really not. I am wholly and magnificently exposed and down 90bps for the day with another 70bps in the AHs due to my excursions.

It’s important to remain calm and place things into perspective. If the bunch of stocks held in my account is wrong, I can fix it tomorrow. Down days doesn’t mean down forever. It only means I have to try a different combo — perhaps a theme or perhaps contrarian. One thing we do have working in our favor is seasonality. It is rare to see stocks suffer for long in November, and this includes cryptos — which are coming in now.

Just last month NVDA looked dreary and today it went haywire above $300, acting like a crypto currency. Today’s trash is tomorrow’s treasure and vice versa. Although down today, I will trade great again — maybe tomorrow or perhaps Monday.

WE SHALL NOT TRADE LOWER FOR LONG BARRELING INTO TURKEY DAY. It is settled science and there is no debating it.

I’m expecting to drawdown a bit whether I like it or not. I’ve always felt to be invincible and in all of my years trading TODAY was the day I’d skirt the market trends and once again finish victorious presiding over a heap of charred cars and molten metal. I am expecting the market to pullback before Thanksgiving and I’m also predicting me trading like I can skirt this correction and only in fact fall victim to it and once again curse the heavens for the plague scorned onto me.

The Stocklabs market timing wizardry is now showing an OVERBOUGHT condition which means little without backtest data (which we have) other than to suggest the market is overheated now. How people respond to a very strong tape is an entirely different story. In many cases momentum begets more momentum and you can see that plainly in stocks like NVDA and AFRM. We have tossed out idle notions of fundamental valuations and now propel stocks to 100x sales, when about 15 years ago anything more than 10x would be viewed as wildly overvalued.

Everything looks tired, including BTC. Gold and silver are jumping off because, frankly, the Fed seems to have a hidden mandate of HIGH inflation. How else can one justify keeping so loose with this inflation and jobs market — labor shortages causing spikes in wages. I read a large number of plebs in the service industry have QUIT THEIR JOBS recently due to gains in SHITCOINS. The vast majority of said gains were under $50k, hardly enough to retire off from — but it speaks to the much larger narrative of aspiration and how people really feel about hard work. They don’t like it at all — conditioned to want leisure and take short cuts throughout their lives, such as buying vanity coins and vanity NFTs and entering into extreme mercantilism in order to extract true value in the form of currency. While these people will hem and haw and remain inexorably in ETH or SOL. Eventually, they’ll come back to shitty dollars and take said profits to their local Porsche dealership for a new car — because extravagant things means you’re an important person and being important equates to, at least what we’re told, a better life.

Alas the Fed and all of their wisdom deem it more important to afflict ruinous inflationary pressures onto a small subset of Americans who are not part of the investment class and cannot fend off, or hedge, the widely higher prices at the pump and grocery store. After all, if your grocery bill is up 15% this month and your portfolio is up 20% this month — are you less rich?

The rationale for higher inflation is to the benefit of a heavily indebted nation and the gambit, being currency reserve, would be to stoke the flames under asset prices, reap generational wealth under the currency reserve, and then taper. Once we taper, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where we do not enter a bear market and really drawdown from the lofty dreamy highs of 100x sales. Perhaps a more sanguine market will compel some of those SHITCOIN thousandaires to get back to work and I can enjoy service without too long a wait.