Fly Buy: TEX

I added to my TEX position, already my largest, low $31’s.

NOTE: Over the last 20 years, TEX has been up 16 in February for an average return of 6%+.

I sold out of the fucking MOTR boat, taking blades to the face aka 20% loss. And, I stopped out of SFLY for a 10% loss.

Cash position is  30%+.

I get the feeling this market is about to chop people into tiny little pieces. Had you hedged last week, via SCO, FAZ or SRS, you lost money. If you were long big cap leadership names, you lost money. It seems we are entering “the uncertainty zone,” where people fuck themselves inside of meatgrinders.

You can try to avoid the meatgrinder, by way of larger than life cash positions. However, you will be lured back into stocks, because they’re so fucking cool—effectively fucking yourselves again. I am starting to hate stocks again. I notice my sensibilities get offended very easily when the tape gets hard. Like a spoiled brat, I like to make money and do so  with EXTREME REGULARITY.

Do not question my decision to WRITE IN CAPS, out of nowhere. I am NOT OBLIGATED to ANNOUNCE when I will write in caps, for this is my website and you are NOTHING more than a “reader.”

Playing this tape is equal to eating some sushi with tonnes of wasabi on it. It’s a spicy taste.

As I sit here, gawking at my 60 inch sammy, watching the fucktards on CNBC, I am reminded of how stupid this business is and how much I hate it. If I could make $3 million per year killing people, I would do that instead. However, sadly enough, there are no jobs on the fucking market now, willing to pay me $3 million per year, so I am stuck doing this shit.

In closing, I’d give you some picks if I was sure about the direction, but I’m not. I want the market to go up, in order to smash idiot bears to pieces. But, by the looks of pre-market activity, this market may trend lower today.

Pray to God and other mystical beings that “The Bearded Clam” bails us out today, as he is apt to do when we least expect it.

SSCC was acquired for $35 per share. They filed for bankruptcy protection in 2009. Add those motherfuckers to the growing list of stocks that have outperformed, post bankruptcy.

Merger Monday lives.

UPDATE: Private equity vultures are eying SLE for $20.

UPDATE II: Novartis is buying GXDX for $25.

…I am working to correct my errors.

Quick stat, one that I should not have missed. Regardless of the overall market return in January, it is a horrendous month to invest in Chinese lottery stocks, by far.  Counting the seasonal stats for the month of January, collectively (160 stocks), Chinese burritos were down 61% of the time, for an average loss of -2.92%. Conversely, the best month to buy chicoms is April, netting +5%, with a 57% win rate.

Moreover, using The PPT seasonality tools, some of the individual trends for January are staggering, such as 75%+ loss rates in CAAS, LONG, ACTS, CFSG, SORL, HRBN, CHNG, HMIN, LFC and EDU. The best seasonal winners in January are CHINA, SCOK and SEED, with mediocre 66% win rates.

Digging deeper, many chicoms are deviating significantly from their average January return.

Stocks deviating the most, to the upside, are: JOBS +17%, SHI+16%, ACTS +13.5%, CAAS +10% etc.

Stocks deviating the most, to the downside, are: TSTC -91% (was up 600%+ in January of 2004), FEED -31%, CHGS -22%, CTDC -22% etc.

Shockingly enough, right now, 61% of chicoms are now registering negative monthly returns, identical to the sectors historical patterns. How’s that for seasonal trend validation?

The biggest winners, MTD, are: FFHL +46%, BONA +33%, BITA +25%, CCME +24%, TRIT +22%, SYSW +20%, BORN +19%, SHI +17%, CXDC +17% and AMAP +16%.

The losers are too stupid to mention, most down on website attack pieces. Which in an entirely separate issue: are the earnings at Chinese firms reliable, from an accounting standpoint? Because of RINO and a few other bad seeds, bullshit websites have used their influence to raid the shares of thinly traded chicoms. Names like BORN, CVVT, DGW, CGA and TSTC have come under constant assault. Without knowing all the facts, I do know how bearshitters operate. For the most part, the majority of dedicated bears are smart and know how to pick a fraud. But these blog fuckers are a totally new animal, most likely trading ahead of their reports, committing all sorts of heinous insider trading violations. Going out on a limb here (my cock), I’d say the majority of chicoms are legit, with only a handful committing outright fuckery—not so much different than the domestic fraud-shit. However, because of the relentless rumors of fraud, more than 20 of the 160 stocks in my “burrito” index are down more than 20%, over a 3 month window.

When there is fear, opportunity presents itself.

Finally, for the month of February, the seasonal trends flatten out, with 50% of stocks trading up, for an average return of 0.74%. Moreover, the seasonal data is robust, booking solid gains, all the way until June. For the sake of contrast, semiconductor and equipment stocks, typically, post their best returns in January, with an average win rate of 53% and average return of 5.4%. Thus far, 62% of semiconductor and equipment stocks are up, month to date.

Food for thought.

I am so mad right now I can punch a hole through a homeless person. My overzealous faith in clams and other such magical entities has resulted in a money losing endeavor for 2011, thus far. I’ve been deballed on several momentum names and it appears I am on the wrong side of the sword. I had to force myself away from the desk today, in order to save my positions from being liquidated. I know this is very short sighted for many of you ham and egg money managers. But then again, there is a reason why I am better than you by a factor of 10.

Year to date, I am down 3.25% and 15% in my personal /aggressive account. I can accept a 15% ding, following an 875% windfall. It’s the law of averages at play, things of that nature. No emotions, that’s just how it works. However, for managed accounts, I cannot accept a -3% setback, so early on in the year. For the week, I was down about 6%, making it one of my worst weeks in awhile.

You do not understand how this makes me feel. My entire weekend is ruined and I will now lament over Sunday evenings Asian trade. I find this business, at times, to be very tedious. It’s a looping process of success, failure, cleaning up messes. Here I am, coming off my best performance year ever, telling new prospective investors to “fuck off,” as I am not accepting new clients, talking to you from the discomfort of a fucking murderhole.

Case in point, I dropped 400k into OPEN this morning and it reversed on me, like a fucking cinder block in jello.

In short, I am going to have to restructure my portfolio. At the present, my largest positions are TEX, OXY, PH, BORN and SFLY—a losing combination. If I read any bullshit in the comments section, with regards to offering me financial advice, you’re fucking banned. Moreover, I will track you down, like the pigs that you are, and punch your chest hairs off.

After we came out with guns ablaze this morning, the ballet broke out and the bulls started dancing with the bears like faggots— no offense to gay guys of course. We were supposed to have this great big rout, filled with blood, red meat and gun powder. Instead, we have milquetoast.

Let me go on the record to say: nothing vexes me more than milquetoast.

Despite the grande showing of the Dow, I find myself down 0.2%, thanks to the motherfuckers at MOTR, BORN and SFLY.

Can’t a fly catch a percent?

Developing…

I bought 5,000 OPEN in the low $77’s.

Disclaimer: If you buy OPEN because of this post, you will find a roach in your Chinese food. And, you may lose money.

I fucking warned you about shorting this market. Now you’re gonna pay the price for your sins. Today we bounce and do so with great energy and purpose. You market timers need to shut the fuck up and quit giving advice. Look, I’ve been wrong before, mostly done on purpose in order to let you fucktards catch up. You need to know when you are barking up the wrong tree. When it comes to betting against The Bearded Clam, there is no struggle. There will be no back and forth volley between good and evil—just rout. You fuckers are no match for his printing presses.

Add on to that, the economy is getting better. The s&p 500 will earn $110 in 2012, putting the FPE under 12. That’s fucking ridiculous.

Barring some sort of Chinese real estate collapse, we’re going to 1,650 on the 500.

“The Ultimate Short Squeeze” is setting upon you. Homeless guys sitting on lawn chairs, trading on margin from blackberries, will force you out of your stupid 3x inverse ETFs, rendering your privileged education worthless—yet again. Men in green leotards and velcro hats will die, amidst a flurry of egregious buy orders, all courtesy of The Bearded Clam, aka Benjamin Bernanke.

You may take today’s 2 point loss in the Dow Industrial Averages to the bank. You may cash in all of your apocalyptic bets, even though you have the faintest idea what you are doing. You can talk shit on twitter all day long, predicting the return of the Four Horsemen, starvation and pestilence. People will think you have a great brain. They will clamor your predictions and sign up for your asshole services. HOWARD LINDZON will proclaim your greatness and offer you a blog. In general, you will be regarded as “a great man.”

You will enjoy newsletter success and go on lavish vacations, to beautiful islands, drinking pina coladas and eating shrimps. lobster, and foie gras. You will rest near the ocean, without a care in the world, just sort of taking in the sun, the breeze and the views. Then suddenly, out of nowhere, a giant clam will swallow you whole, before slinking back into the ocean.

No one will ever talk about you again.

Top picks: TEX, BORN, PH