An Undeniable Visual

I created a housing resurgence index almost two years ago, in order to keep track of the sector. Over time, I’ve added names, after becoming better acclimated with every facet of the industry, from financing to bolts. Have a look at the index’s chart since 2009, a 4 bagger.

For all those still in denial of the housing boom to come can cordially stick their heads in a cannon, staring at a cannonball wrapped in this chart.

The health of the market has never been better. Ignore the cat calls from the people with deformed brains. We’re going higher. It’s safe to head back into your underground harems and partake in sexual endeavors, if that’s the type of thing you’re into.

I closed down 1.1%, led lower by WNC/USG, partially offset by FBHS, VHC and GS.

There is no need for watchlists, young man. Everything is about to go higher.

Some of my meaningful positions are getting hit hard today, namely USG and WNC. This is post earnings “sell on the news” action. Both companies reported solid earnings, but not enough of a surprise to keep the momentum going.

Does that mean the stocks are done going higher?

Absolutely not.

Hot money bought the stocks for a pop and when they didn’t get it, they sold. The core fundamentals are still there, which is why USG is my second largest position. Keep in mind, before you know it, the summer months will be here and the warm, balmy winds of black Africa will produce hurricanes of revenge and scornful death, delivered by way of Poseidon to kill the descendents of slave traders– inside of their lavish trailered homes.

When it occurs, I reckon people will sashay over to their local Lowes to pick up some wallboard. At that time, “The Fly” will be smoking cigars, clad in something made from linen, drinking something with rum in it, ordering his slaves to fetch another cucumber sandwich, else be whipped with hot slices of pizza (no plantation).

I am down 1.3% for the day, erasing yesterday’s wins. RS is ripping; but the position is so infinitesimally small, I am almost embarrassed for having it.

Onward.

The NIKKEI soared by more than 3.5% yesterday, which is causing a flurry of inflows into the Wisdom Tree ETF, DXJ. Once again, Wisdom Tree is publicly traded and their assets under management are now north of $21 billion. As the attractiveness of Japanese markets enhances, plebs are pouring into these ETFs, which will lead to great earnings per share at the parent company, WETF.

I see no reason why BLK, the owner of iShares, shouldn’t buy WETF and consolidate the businesses.

USG earnings were very good. The stock is down, but rest assured, business is on the incline. I am a buyer on dips.

WNC reported a good number too. Again, a buyer on dips.

The television box is trying to make a big deal over the flurry of recent deals. DELL went private, MUSA, VMED and APKT caught buyouts and the ipo market is waking up. Well, what else do you expect to happen when the market is at new highs? Let’s not be stupid and read more into this than need be. Deals will always get done. But there is always more deals in good times than bad. That’s human nature.

I like a lot of names right here. I am watching the homebuilders closely and would love to buy BZH back. However, I am about 94% invested and some of my stocks are “pausing” today. Whenever my stocks “pause”, I like to reserve cash for potential average downs.

Finally, I am long RS from the 40’s. This stock has been on a non-stop rip higher, spiraling higher today after announcing the purchase of MUSA. This makes no sense, but I will take it, nonetheless.

For the first time in ages, I am pleased with my Federal government, taking action against the perverts at S&P. First of all, they shouldn’t have downgraded the United Steaks. That’ll learn them. And secondly, they fueled the housing bubble with fraudulent ratings because their customers wanted AAA.

Anyone in the business of money management knows to laugh and urinate on the credit reports of the ratings agencies. It’s time to shut down these bucket shoppes and allow for some credible people to emerge.

I don’t think it’s too harsh to say S&P, Moody’s and Fitch were more than stupid during the housing bubble, but criminally fraudulent.

Just like the good folks from Arthur Andersen were put out of business post Enron, I see no reason why the same shouldn’t happen to these ratings agencies.

I am holding a big balled sized position in WNC, heading into earnings. By posting this, I am effectively jinxing myself. However, I’ve read over so many analyst reports and they all seem to think WNC is going to beat and guide up.

By saying that, I just un-jinxed myself, as most of you read that and immediately sold the stock short.

2013 is all about the kill, eating my prey and keeping my blood running hot. During 2012, I took the path of massive cowardice, by stabling myself with large cash positions–afraid to lose my penis in a rapid carrot chopping expedition.

No more, my fair weathered friends from internetland. “The Fly” is big and bold and punches the heads of the stupid, while kicking the sternums of the pathetic.

It’s alpha male time and I am ready to receive my fortune.

The Federal Reserve has answered our prayers and given the market the shot of adrenaline it needed. We all needed it, after yesterday’s dreadful market crash.

I took the opportunity to kick out my final loser, selling all of ELLI, in order to add to my MOS position. There will be losses along the way. But as long as we remain faithful to our core beliefs, everything will work out in the end.

The Japanese yen is being dismantled, yet again. Very soon, the zany South Koreans are going to get pissed off by this yen walk down and counter with their own central bank action.  We are in the midst of a global currency war and Japan is winning!

NMR, MTU, SNE, HMC and TM are long term buys.

Kyel “the idiot” Bass has taken the side of Daniel Loeb in the battle against Ackman for the destruction of HLF. I am starting to think Ackman is going to drop feces on the faces of all of these strange men. As much as I like Ichan, let’s face it, it’s all for the wrong reasons. I like him because he is a black hearted villain, not because he’s intelligent or can speak the english language correctly. Ackman, although a great big pervert, is smart, cool and collected, sort of like David Einhorn–add in depravity.

Into the planting season, I cannot think of a better, safer, place to invest than agriculture. MOS is my top idea for February, aside from the powerball nature of my VHC position; I believe MOS is going to make me a great deal of money going forward.

I doubled my MOS position and kicked ELLI to the curb.

Disclaimer: If you buy MOS because of this post, the SEC will raid your home and arrest your wife for insider trading. And, you may lose money.

Gather around children, Uncle Fly is going to show you how a gentleman wins while suffering from beast-like losses.

A short while ago, I purchased NIHD, based upon the concept that the lowest form of sub-human would flock–MIND YOU– to their local Brasilian nextel dealership to buy a phone, now that Apple has been beaten dead. This turned out to be one of my stupidest ideas ever, as the stock wallowed–MIND YOU–down into the oblivion of misery.

I sold the stock out yesterday, booking a very calm and collective 15% loss, cursing the heavens for tricking me into such an unfashionable name, swearing oaths to all of the Gods, both old and new, to never invest in shoddy south american cellular phone enterprises again.

Then this morning I was blessed with this good news.

NII Holdings sees Q4 rev above consensus; sees FY13 rev below consensus (6.38 )
Co issues upside guidance for Q4 (Dec), sees Q4 (Dec) revs of ~$1.5 bln vs. $1.47 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; net subscriber additions of ~2,200, and total capital expenditures of ~$525 million with FY12 OBIDA of $930-950 mln.

Co issues downside guidance for FY13 (Dec), sees FY13 (Dec) revs of $5.7-5.9 bln vs. $6.14 bln Capital IQ Consensus (may not compare due to planned divestitures). Consolidated adjusted OIBDA in the range of $600 million to $650 million; Mid-single digit growth rate for its consolidated subscriber base. Co sees negative operating CF in 2013 up $200 mln YoY.

In 2013, the co plans to continue to invest in the deployment of its 3G networks with a particular focus on building those networks and improving results in its core markets of Mexico and Brazil. The co also announced that it is continuing to support its operations in Peru, Chile and Argentina, while also exploring strategic options for these markets, such as partnerships, service arrangements and asset sales to maximize the value of those businesses and generate additional liquidity. The Company is also in the process of pursuing a sale and leaseback of an aggregate of up to 4,500 telecommunication towers that it owns in Brazil and Mexico through a competitive bidding process. The Company is currently evaluating offers from a number of interested parties and expects to be in a position to complete these transactions during the course of 2013.

The stock is bid down more than 18% in pre-market trade, leaving Le Fly in a very powerful winning position, following a most horrendous loss.

Off to do other powerful and important things.

(tips hat)

Wouldn’t you agree that to have information at one’s finger tips provides the person with an advantage? It goes without saying that information is vital when it comes to investing, knowing what stocks to buy, why and when.

Out of the thousands of stocks traded, don’t you think it would be useful to know what stocks correlate best to a market bounce and precisely what sectors and stocks outperform most?

This is an obsession of mine. I don’t always play the stocks I gawk at, even though I probably should since the stocks I talk about most (APKT) tend to outperform the one’s I actually own. Enough of my curse.

The PPT is not oversold yet. However, the Overall Hybrid score dropped by 15% today, putting it in the top 20 drops of all-time. A number of stocks swung to oversold today, measured using both technicals and fundamentals. Fundamentals can flag OS or OB signals only when valuations become so extreme that it weighs heavily on the Hybrid score.

The following stocks were flagged oversold today and posses excellent track records. Moreover, they correlate well to the overall market. So, should we get a bounce in stocks, these stocks are more likely to outperform others, barring a news event that shifts the paradigm.

PPT members can access full screen here.

VRNG
TOL
HRS
MTH
EXK (strong Feb seasonality)
LEN
HW
IDXX
RPRX