A Recent Trading History For the Month of May

If April’s 1% gain holds, the market will mark its 6th consecutive month up. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out the laws of averages will eventually kick in, thrusting the market into correction mode. Being that the month of May is traditionally a bearish one, I thought it’d make sense to shed some light into the inner workings of May and what makes it so god damned retarded.

First of all, over the past 20 years, the SPY has been up 55% of the time in May, so it’s not a hugely negative month. I am more focused on recent history, regarding the market being down more than 6% twice– out of the past three years.

The best performing sector, by far, are closed end muni funds. It seems the entire investment community throws their money at them in May, as well as utilities. These are very traditional risk off sectors.

SOXS and SQQQ sport an average return greater than 14.5% over the past three years. You get the gist.

Outliers include names such as K, OVTI, GIS, S, ENTR, DLTR, as well as about 75 others.

Out of the 430 mega cap stocks traded, the following perform worst in May:

CIG, TSU, KB, CCI, CBD, ARMH, FTE, TSM, DEO and SCCO.

The last time the market went straight up like this was last year, with the SPY booking five consecutive barn buster months, only to slow down and cool off in April–to the tune of a mere -0.67%. The following month, in May, the SPY got crushed by -6.01%–which was nearly recovered in June when it booked a +4% return.

If a -6% loss for the SPY seems like a little, think again small pleb from the interwebs. The SMH shed 10% in May of last year.

Be on guard for an egregious downside reversal.

Some of you have asked for tips on raising kids, enlightening the masses how one raises the perfect child. Clearly, this is an impossible task, as some children are pre-determined to be exceptionally bright or athletic. The genetic make up of a child will allow a keen parent to steer them in the best direction.

I’m not an expert on raising children, despite have three of my own. But they’re all well behaved, exceptional students. My eldest took his SATs when he was in 7th grade and scored at a 12th grade level. He’s always at the top of his class, with a near flawless academic career.

My wife and I are very traditional and never use or expose our children to profanity and/or sexually explicit material. Rap music is never played in the car or at home. Most of the time, I am jamming to 18th century classical tunes, mixed in with a little Phillip Glass. We encourage them to read often and take them to Barnes and Noble’s to find new books on a regular basis.

Television content is strictly confined to the Disney channel and other G rated programming.

I feel very strongly about the cancerous nature of the American culture, fixated on gratuitous violence and sex. I do believe, with every ounce of calcium in my bones, that the culture is poisoned on purpose to produce idiots, who will be easily led to slaughter. As a parent, my number one duty is to raise healthy, intelligent children; nothing else is important.

We do everything together and I do not believe in baby sitters. If my wife and I want a night out to theatre or a three star Michelin eatery, our children are watched by family. I find many parents to view their children to be burdens, mere inconveniences, that intrude on their never-ending quest to partake in hedonism, venturing off to nightclubs–behaving like fools.

It’s time for you to grow up and stop wearing shorts, you drunkard jackass. Quit wearing beads around your neck and marring your appearance with ridiculous tattoos and body piercings. That’s not cool.

Cool is building a legacy that you can be proud of in 30 years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c04pKBgcoZc

The market digested gains, with solar and LED plays, once again, leading the speculative fervor. I am very busy at The House of Fly prepping for my daughter’s 10th birthday celebration.

I lost some coin today; but that’s okay. It was a good week and I am a good position, with more than 40% of my assets in cash–heading into the psychotic month of May.

Top picks: LED/solar plays, RBCN specifically.

I bought the dip. The LED sector is still on fire, see LEDS, RVLT and AIXG for evidence.

I was going to do a piece about semiconductor foundry stocks, highlighting names like AMKR, TER, CDNS, WFR and RTEC. I was going to tie together the DRAM price spike with the manufactures of silicon wafers, the companies who package and then finally test them for yield. As of now, this is my favorite space, alongside the LED space and housing.

Ideally, the spike in DRAM prices will result in increased supply, in turn, companies who test and package wafers will stand to make money money off volume.

But I cannot get involved with yet another thesis play, as we enter the month of May. The market, yet again, is luring me back into its bosom, lavishing me with short term gains in degenerate stocks. The way this game typically ends is with me shattered to a thousand pieces, lamenting about how I should’ve listened to my own advice.

Well, I have no issues with allocating some spec capital to the above names. However, by no means will I dive back into this tape, naked and without protection.

As an aside, WETF had great numbers. The stock is going to $14 by summer.

Mandatory listening

It’s called DRAM memory.

Now go do some research and tell me who benefits from this sort of rise in spot prices.

Owning HDGE was appealing to me several weeks ago because of the technical state of their short positions. Since then, things have changed, as stocks like CLF, CMG and FSLT shot through the roof.

In other words, the managers at HDGE are imbeciles and cannot be trusted with my money. I will initiate short positions on my own.

NOTE: Cash position is about 50%.

I sold out for a 5% loss.

I do think we are in the late stages of the run. I do not expect a catastrophe, but a mere pullback, traditional in all bull markets. As such, I’ve designed my accounts to hold upwards of 35% cash, with a taste of HDGE in them– to the tune of 15%.

However, because of the aggressive nature of the moves we are seeing in small cap tech, I’ve been allocating resources there for the purposes of profit.

I am exclusive in the tech space, as I have zero interest in dealing with the daily machinations of the commodity sector, which is fraudulent on a wholesale level. Inside our premium service, there is a great screen on the front page blog that will isolate the types of stocks I am looking for–names like LEDS and RBCN–although I do not own LEDS at the moment.

I realize the commodity sector is doing quite well today and I wish all of you gamblers the best of luck in your never-ending efforts to time the bottom in silver just right. But at this stage in my life, in this rally, I cannot fall victim to scurrilous market moving news events again.

Top picks: Small cap tech.

Twenty six percent of the shares of RBCN are sold short. For a long time, there was a good reason to be short, as the price of Sapphire (Rubicon’s market) had continued to plummet. However, things are about to change around there parts and the sellers who made coin from the $9 to $8 range are going to the threatened very soon, in my humble estimation.

Grumbles regarding Sapphire being used for smartphone screens are making the rounds again, the ultimate solution to making your iPhone scratch proof. Don’t believe me. Take it from the analyst at Stern Agee who was saying RBCN was a sell from $35 all the way down.

He’s now bullish, citing capacity utilization expansion, looking for the stock to trade up to $12.

Previously, his price target was $7.