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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Trump Continues to Publicly Shame the Industrial-Military Complex, Achieving Great Results

Who would have known that by simply using the bully pulpit to negotiate better prices for the American people, an American President could squeeze those greedy bastards into submission.

In what is clearly becoming a trend, President-elect Trump took to Twitter today to threaten the hawks at $LMT and their absurd F-35 project, which is $100s of billions behind budget, by saying he was in talks with $BA to discuss replacing it entirely with the F-18.

Share are down sharply in the after-hours, as a result.

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Trump recently clashed with the clowns at Boeing over their Airforce 1 boondoggle, which was on schedule to cost in excess of $4b. Every since he tweeted the cost and threatened to cancel the order, Boeing reached out to Trump and issued a statement saying costs would come way down.

“We’re going to get it done for less than that, and we’re committed to working together to make sure that happens,” said Dennis Muilenburg, after the meeting at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida.

Clearly, Trump is trying to get better deals for the American people for its largest line item expense, defense spending. America has wars to fight and numerous countries to bomb. Defense spending, including the wars, nears $1 trillion per annum. Fucking ridiculous.

Compare that to Russia’s $66b per annum in defense spending, and anyone can clearly see that something is off when taking into consideration the democrats’ and the media’s agenda to demonize Russia — as if they actually posed a threat to our hegemony.

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Retail Stocks Crash into the Hard, Cold Rocks; The Dow Trades Down a Smidge

Look at these god damned retail stocks. They’re crashing I tell ya, crashing!

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But no one really cares anymore. Investors know the risks associated with hiking rates into a weak economy, but are consciously choosing to ignore said risks in order to partake in the grand experiment of a centrally planned global economy. We need slave labor, lots of it, and plenty of open borders.

In spite of the most important part of the U.S. economy getting nailed today, after November’s consumer spending came in must less than expected, the Dow is hardly down. Everything is just meh.

Incidentally, President elect Trump will have his hands full come January 20th, specifically with a central bank whose stated goal is now to hedge against any fiscal stimulus he enacts in office. Janet Yellen just wants to fight inflation. There’s nothing political about it, naturally.

Since election night, the 10yr bond yield has risen from 1.75% to 2.55% on the premise of stronger than expected American GDP under Trump. Pray tell me, how will this occur is the Fed continues to hike rates into a very meek consumer spending environment, one hampered by rising oil prices rigged by OPEC?

You do the math.

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Consumer Spending Falls Short, Retail Stocks Plunge: KRAMPUS IS COMING

The Dow is never going to hit 20,000. It’ll be one of those forbidden fruits that will menace you for as long as you live. You’ll reflect on these days as ‘the good times’, when the Dow was near 20,000 and assholes on the NYSE wore hats that read ‘Almost 20,000.’

Consumer spending for the month of November were absolutely dreadful.

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Do you know why consumer spending was weak, all the while markets hit new record highs? BECAUSE 70% MOST AMERICAN’S ARE FLAT BROKE.

As a result, retail stocks are meeting their maker — off by horrendous figures, plainly crushing the hopes and dreams of millions.

Here are some lowlights today, notable stocks off by more than 5%.

$BBBY, $PIR, $KIRK, $WSM, $RH, $NWY, $BEBE, $AEO, $JWN, $ANF, $FRAN, $GME, $DDS, $JCP, $BOOT, $BIG, $DKS, $ETSY, $ZAGG, $GNC, $VSI, $FOSL, $FIVE, $PRTY, $VNCE, $GIII.

Pagan Xmas is a bust. Now go eat the rest of your panettone you fat fucks and behold the coming of KRAMPUS.

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Bitcoin Surges Again, Crushing All Asset Classes for 2016

It’s rather fitting that a scam trade crushed all others in 2016. It makes total sense, when considering Bitcoin is supported by many VCs and former gold bugs who lost faith in the yellow metal, saddened by the lack of progress in finally getting to audit Fort Knox.

I didn’t even look at the news, but Bitcoins are soaring today, higher by 4%. Maybe the Vinklevoss twins launched another Bitcoin project?

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As far as I know, there is one way to play this in the ETF world and that’s through $GBTC.

Like it or not, Bitcoins outperformed all asset classes in 2016 and stands on a pedestal of its own making — built off the backs of each and every one of its buyers — like a pyramid scheme, only much worse.

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In theory, Bitcoin is completely retarded. It’s also a bad idea in real life, storing money on a hard drive that can be hacked away and rendered worthless. No thanks.

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Russian Hackers Render American Drones Useless in Ukraine

AeroVironment’s survellience drones were so bad, the government of Ukraine wanted to just give them back to the United States, after being harangued by mischievous Russian hackers, which rendered the toys r us grade drones utterly useless.

Kiev purchased 72 piece of shit Raven RQ-11b (they named it to sound official, but it’s really a fucking useless toy) from AeroVironment, ticker symbol $AVAV, and regret ever doing so. That’ll teach them for buying low quality crap from our B grade defense contractors. Had they purchased via $LMT, they’d be crushing helmets right now.

“From the beginning, it was the wrong decision to use these drones in our (conflict),” Chazin, an advisor to the chief of the general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces, told Reuters.
The hand-launched Ravens were one of the recent highlights of U.S. security assistance to Ukraine, aiming to give Kiev’s military portable, light-weight, unarmed surveillance drones that were small enough to be used widely in the field. They are made by AeroVironment.

The Air Force command of Ukraine’s armed forces acknowledged to Reuters that the Ravens supplied by the United States had a fundamental drawback: Russia and the separatist forces it supports can intercept and jam their video feeds and data.

“The complex is analog, therefore command channels and data are not protected from interception and suppression by modern means of electronic warfare,” it said.
Chazin said they were largely in storage and called them a vulnerability, allowing the enemy to see Ukrainian military positions and, when it wanted, easily take them down. They had short battery life and were unable to reliably fulfill the key mission of gaining intelligence on artillery positions, he said.

“(Analog) basically puts you back in the stone age of the UAVs,” said James Lewis, director of the strategic technologies program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, using an acronym for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, or drones.
“I’m not being critical of the Raven. I love the Raven … But it’s a cheap, disposable UAV. And for more intense conflict, that may not cut the ice anymore.”

 

What a piece of shit. The people at AeroVironment should be ashamed of themselves for selling such trash, making America look like stone aged fools. I guess we’re so accustomed to fighting rock throwers in the Middle East, we’ve become lazy and complacent when it comes to dealing with true defense threats.

According to our government of whiners, Russia is just having a ball taking down our drones, using them against our Ukraine allies, and also hacking the DNC  and John ‘I don’t need pizza right now’ Podesta’s email box for both fun and leisure.

Shares of $AVAV were down a bit yesterday. If Trump is paying attention to this embarrassment, they’ll be getting axed during the next round of contracts.

 

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A Summary of my ‘Trading’ Year: Booking Extreme Losses Post Haste, Just in Time for X-Mas

I haven’t discussed my trades or positions all that much this year, mainly because I don’t manage money professionally anymore, having only a minor portion of my net worth in stocks — keenly focused on making America great again and fighting the scourge of fake news. However, had I been managing money this year, judging by the performance of my ‘picks’, I’d be committing suicide now — taking the old swan dive off the nearest bridge.

Let’s review my stupidity.

Back in August I went long Gold and miners. Truly, how fucking stupid was that?

I went long $GLD, $AU, $ABX and $AUY. My losses on those 4 stocks are nothing short of staggering — with both AU and AUY leading the pack with 40% dents to my skull.

Also, I never covered my $FCX short, which was up nicely when it delved into the 8s. I am short from $12.60 and have watched my own face getting ripped off by a buzz-saw of epic proportions since then.

Moving on.

I went short $DB — because the Germans are cucks. This short resulted in me getting the Anne Frank treatment. Those nazi bastards really know how to ruin a good party. I merely requested to preside over the death of Europe’s largest bank. This didn’t happen. But what did happen is me getting lined up and gunned down by a firing squad.

DB was part of my ‘FIST OF DEATH’ basket of stocks that literally punched my jaw loose — short DB, $ULTA, $FCX, $LFC and $CAT — one stock per broken finger of mine. It was, quite literally, one of the dumbest trades of my entire life. I know this might sound foreign to some of you serious types, but these jackassed losses are very humorous to me, as I thrive off gallows humor. The irony of me betting against ‘the system’, hoping for its demise, but instead being killed for my efforts, is deliciously rich with lessons of moral hazard.

Last but not least is my $TLT carnivale show, starring Le Fly via his Twitter account, warning of grave dangers and posting pictures of the SS Titanic.

I warned of impending storms and pasted tornado gif’s on the site, hoping to kill people to death by way of fear. This trade was of an epic varietal, shooting the fuck higher out of the gates — long $TLT from $117 and seeing it run past $140 — only to watch it come right the fuck down, leaving me stranded here with my dick in my hands, juggling my balls, with a giant question mark over my head.

The poetic nature of my trading mishaps is accentuated by a factor of 10,000 by the indelible fact that losses were mostly absorbed AFTER Trump got elected. I had been shilling for Trump all year and thought his victory would cause some sort of glitch in the matrix — where cadavers would fall out of their pods, scaring the shit out of people to the point of sheer panic. In my study, I envisioned dark times with assholes getting hit in the head with cadaver cocks — all the while I’d be laughing at everyone suffering from the pangs of anguish — donning a Make America Great Again t-shirt.

Unfortunately, none of that stuff happened in real life — but I still have hopes and dreams.

I can write an entire book about this ordeal, one that I’d write with my own blood.

I’m not all that pessimistic of a guy, sans my penchant for fatalism. I enjoy listening to music, reading good books, drinking wine, martinis and eating quality foods. Life is enjoyable. After 20 years of investing and trading in stocks, I took the year off and engulfed myself in other things.

A great man once said “when you don’t know what you’re doing, it’s fatal, Mr. Moore.”

I’ll do much better in 2017, especially since I can’t do much worse.

All positions will be cleaned out this week and a clean slate will be had and enjoyed, followed by a redeployment of said assets of the non-retarded nature.

Stay tuned.

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WALL STREET LOOKS TO CLOSE OUT 2016 FEARLESS

Since 2012, the fear index known as the VIX has enjoyed record levels of complacency. This level of hubris has paired nicely with central bank intervention and record low rates across western economies.

The perversion of finance has reduced the once predictive indicator into a laughing stock on Wall Street. Once revered for its ability in predicting bottoms and tops, the VIX index is nothing more than a series of lines on a meaningless chart — thanks to the machine like consistency of the grind higher.

Whenever markets get tested and losses mount, central banks step in to save the day.

This is, without question, a Frankenstonian nightmare waiting to unravel and wreak havoc acrosss multiple asset classes. But until then, we march merrily higher, effervescent and without a care in the world.

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Bank of America Analyst Thinks We’re Reliving the 1950s, Sees ‘Decades’ of Gains Ahead

If you thought the recent rally was awesome, you haven’t seen anything yet — according to BofA/Merrill analyst Stephen Suttmeier.

Stephen doesn’t concern himself with the fact that the United States and its trading partners are now beguiled by trillions in debt and productivity losses not seen since the early 1980s. Instead, he fashions this to be equal to the golden age of economic prosperity, last enjoyed post world war 2 — stretching until 1971.

WE HAVE FUCKING DECADES OF GAINS AHEAD.

“We actually think the Dow will surpass 20,000 and go much, much higher than that,” said Stephen Suttmeier, his firm’s chief equity technical strategist. “We do believe that we are in a secular bull trend [that was] signaled on the April 2013 breakout in the S&P 500.”

Suttmeier points out that much like today, rising bond yields also corresponded to a surge in equities in the 1950s. By the time bond yields moved to 5 or 6 percent in the 1960s, the S&P 500 had rallied about 460 percent over the decade or so.

“That bull run into the mid-1960s was actually an S&P secular bull trend that was associated with a low and rising interest rate environment,” Suttmeier said. “That is how we’re set up right here. “

In other words, Suttmeier believes that “there is at least a decade or more to run here on the S&P 500 and other U.S. equity averages.”

It’s the same god damned set up as the 1950s and 60s. Rates are going to skyrocket to 6%, choking  out America with crazy debt servicing fees — all the while stocks sparkle like a pack of jumping jacks on a dark and balmy July 4th night.

Here are some GDP stats for your enjoyment.

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I want whatever he’s smoking.

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