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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Tech REKT

WTI is lifting off and industrials are leading the market higher today — but tech stocks are taking the day off and market breadth is tepid at just 46%. This has people thinking the rotation is real and that the market is toast. But those people are wrong and oil stocks are retarded. Long live the SAASfagLORDS.

There are a sundry of names down by 2-5% this afternoon, a couple I happen to own and lament the idea of having to spend another day in such underperformers.

The Cock Black, as an example, very poorly done and lower. DOCU bad! But SPOT, MDB, and ZEN are good!

All in all, I am lower by 0.7%, with 20% cash. This level of weakness has me thinking about taking a nap and perhaps waking up later on when things look better.

Maybe I’ll delve into a non-tech stock this afternoon, try my hand at something different.

More later.

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Team Trump: Expect Bigly GDP Numbers; Foreign Investment Rules Not Disastrous: Markets Edge Higher

Futures were miserable up until this news came out. By golly, I felt there was a possibility that I’d lose some money today. Alas, team Trump and his band of wonderful villains came thru with the news to save the day.

Two items. Rules to be imposed on foreign investment, not that big a deal. CNBC can fuck off.

The White House won’t be looking to block companies with 25 percent or more of Chinese ownership from buying certain U.S. tech-related companies.

Instead, the government will rely on the newly strengthened Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to deal with concerns about foreign purchase of sensitive domestic technologies, a senior administration official said Wednesday.

In all, measures the administration announced were less harsh than proposals floated earlier in the week, providing relief to markets who continue to worry about the threat of a global trade war.

The second item, a whimsically great one; expect a bigly GDP number.

“We’re excited. This is the six month anniversary of tax cuts. We’re expecting a big second quarter GDP number,” he said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday. “Let me just say I have no advance notice of what it looks like.”

President Donald Trump signed the Republican tax overhaul in December, which lowered the corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 35 percent. Mnuchin cited the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s projected GDP growth of 4.7 percent for the second quarter.

“I have no idea whether it will be that high [referring to the Atlanta Fed forecast], but a year ago people were laughing when we talked about 3 percent GDP,” he said. “We have an economy that is here because of the president’s tax plan and the president’s regulatory relief and we always said trade is part of this.”

Sure, why the fuck not?

I need to sashay on over to the dealership. I’ll be back at the trading turret gunning down fools in about an hour.

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Ignore the Feckless Weakness into the Close; Tomorrow We Trade North

Get your shit together for a long journey, for tomorrow we begin an expedition towards new record highs in the indices. There’s nothing in the way of this happening, not Trump, Xi, or fate for that matter. Stocks will trade up, because that’s what they’re designed to do. Plus, all of the asset managers are manipulating fagLORDS who depends on this Ferris wheel to continue spinning and spinning until we’re all sick and vomiting all over each other, falling out of the cages and splattering onto the filthy pavement below, which is covered in vomit and piss.

But new riders are placed into the Ferris wheel each and every day, and the blood and the guts of yesterday’s passengers wiped clean, as if it never happened.

To that end, dare I say, tomorrow will be a pivotal day?

Here’s my portfolio.

Join us in Exodus, for all of the fun and the memes. Free trials are now automated, so enjoy it with my compliments.

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Fly Buy: $SAIL

Someone stop me — I can’t stop buying stocks. I think I’m addicted.

I bought SAIL here, a very thin and beautiful breakout — not fat at all and disgusting like those other stocks. This one is clearly heading higher and I’m honored to own it here.

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Chart Analysis and Purchase: $PVTL

I’m back. Nothing can stop me again. Not now, not ever. I’ve conducted some technical analysis on PVTL and have concluded it’s going higher. Agreed?

With the PVTL purchase, my cash is down to 25%.

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I Just Bought a Bunch of Shit — Down to 30% Cash

Some people inside the Pelican Room in Exodus call it The Cock Black or The Black Cock. I merely call it The Black and do not sink to their levels of perversion. I went long CBLK — because it’s going higher.

Additionally, I bought the following stocks — because men get long stocks and do not wait for the right time. There is never the right time, just the right reason.

DOCU, MDB, HUBS, and ZEN.

That shit there is your entry level SAAS investors starters kit. I’ll get riskier and crazier as the technicals improve. For now, I want exposure to this sector, just in case we’re off to record highs again.

Worst case, I’ll buy more on dips with cash.

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Booked a Horrendous Loss in $GEVO — Rolled into $SPOT Like a Champ

I had an idea what might happen today, following the share authorization announcement by GEVO — but boy was I wrong. The stock ran out the gates like a fucking pointed tailed devil, down 30%. Luckily, my basis was below $9, so that when I sold it, I merely lost an outrageous 20% overnight. The reason why this hasn’t translated into cataclysm for me is because it was a 5% weighted position, the size of all of my positions from the start. If you’re placing more than 10% in any one stock, you’re doing this wrong.

Heaving from the loss and lamenting the site of multiple stocks on my screens shooting higher without me, I decided to take the advice of my children, who know nothing about stocks at all, and buy some SPOT.

Who buys from iTunes anymore, anyways?

All of the young punks stream their music thru services like SPOT. But SPOT is by far the most successful. If Apple knew what was good for them, they’d buy SPOT.

At any rate, the stock isn’t overvalued. As a matter of fact, fundamentally, it’s cheaply priced — thanks to the method by which they came public.

As for the overall market, it doesn’t look strong to me. I am 60% cash after my SPOT purchase.

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Markets Set to Bounce — Who’s Buying the Fucking Dips?

This is why 75% of my money is invested via the Quant strategy. It stays long and doesn’t have to ponder about every god damned tick in the market. Sure, there will be tough times, and on occasion, we’re all gonna lose some money. But you don’t get a trophy for second place and you certainly don’t get to buy the bigger house because you tried really hard.

Investing your money and winning is one of the few ways any person could enjoy upwards mobility in social status and net worth. If you’re not interested in that and enjoy the confines of your house tenements, feel free to ignore this blog and go about your merry way drinking 40 ounces of malted liquor until you die of cirrhosis. But if you’re interested in CRUSHING market, I mean, really CRUSHING them, pay attention to what I am telling you.

Trading is fun and we get to brag abut our 100% wins and tell people at the pub how smart we are — but ultimately it’s a fool’s errand. If you play long enough, the house always wins. The strategy that will change your net worth and the way you live is longer term, concurrent returns, built around a system designed to chase alpha.

I hope you appreciate my candor. Now back to your regularly scheduled degeneracy. Markets are open and Daddy needs a new pair of shoes. To Exodus, to find some fresh breakouts.

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$GEVO Ups Authority for Share Issuance After the Close — A Perfect Short Squeeze Fast Approaches

This is a very small company, with just ~1m shares outstanding. The stock has been spiraling higher, so they got together with their underwriter to get authority to issue shares. From a business point of view, this is exactly what they should be doing.

From a shareholders point of view, this is dilutive and possibly a negative for shares.

On June 25, 2018, Gevo, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an amendment (the “Second Amendment”) to the At-The-Market Offering Agreement, dated February 13, 2018, as amended on June 20, 2018 (the “First Amendment”) (as amended, the “Sales Agreement”), with H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC (the “Agent”), which provides for the sale and issuance from time to time of common stock of the Company in an “at-the-market” offering (the “ATM Offering”). The Second Amendment, among other things, provides for an increase in the amount of common stock for issuance and sale under the ATM Offering by up to an additional $7.995 million of shares of common stock (the “Shares”). The previous Sales Agreement provided for the sale and issuance of up to $15.0 million of shares of common stock in the ATM Offering. To date, the Company has issued 1,833,575 shares of common stock under the ATM Offering for gross proceeds of approximately $15.0 million, including 1,828,367 shares of common stock for gross proceeds of approximately $15.0 million since March 31, 2018.

The company authorized an ATM offering for ~22 million shares, a comical amount considering the present market cap. But they did this for the long term, so don’t think for a second the company is going to hit the bid tomorrow. They’ll sell when they need to and I’ve seen plenty of pressers like this get misinterpreted, hit hard in the after-hours, only to recover and more the following day.

Considering the weak market, I’m guessing this trades lower by 7-15% tomorrow. However, in the event it happens to reverse losses and trade up, it will trade up spectacularly — in grandiose fashion. This of course is head in ass type thinking — but it’s entirely legitimate. After all, the company ALREADY ANNOUNCED authorization of 15 million shares. This presser merely upped that to 22. Again, a non-event, gigantic nothing-burger, but it has led to a 9% drop in shares in the after hours.

Logically, this news should not negatively affect the share price, since they’re no closer to selling 1 million shares, as they are 15 or 22 million. It’s a fucking joke, believe me.

We’ll try our hand at short squeezing this tomorrow.

Sleep tight.

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An Extreme Gentleman and Degenerate into the Bell

Markets down 500 with seconds to go? I don’t give a shit. I’m riding GEVO into there overnight session and into the teeth of tomorrow’s surprise open — because I can’t lose.

Speaking of loss, I booked BILI for an 8% loss today — as it hit my line in the sand. I also lost some money in BSTI, but booked gains in UMRX, SOXS, and CURO — not bad all things considered.

I have a long rich buy list filled with the finest SAAS stocks. It is here and you can see it — sign up for a trial.

Bottom line: The Red Hen is a wonderful restaurant of extreme elegance and Mar a Lago is an absolute shit hole. Do yourselves a favor and sell all of your stocks, so that enterprising men of substance and staying power can buy them from you.

Top pick: Cash, 60%.

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