The Fly Wins Again, Even While Losing Very Badly

ALERT: DUE TO ONEROUS MARKET CONDITIONS, LE FLY WELCOMES ALL INTO THE COMFY CONFINES OF Exodus, FREE FROM CHARGE. START A FREE TRIAL NOW.

I got stopped out of several upside ETFs today — and I made zero on the downside, in spite of knowing we were heading down. Truth is, I am petrified to miss out on the bounce. I bet many of you feel the same, which is why we’re not bouncing. I am starting to believe the bullshit and think the market knows something not priced into the economic news flow. However, we have a President who is obsessed with the market and I’d be shocked if something big didn’t come out soon, in regards to China.

At the close of trade, I am 55% cash in my trading account and 120% long in Quant. I am bleeding out, in line with market on Quant side, and doing better in trading — only because my exposure has been limited. Going into yesterday’s trade I was 65% cash.

Here’s what’s going to happen next.

We are going to McPlunge tomorrow morning in a harrowing tape. We might even halt trading, as people trip over themselves, cracking their teeth on the pavement, trying to save themselves from death. Over the weekend, we will have news that will provide succor for bulls. We will bounce next week and some might think all is well. This will be a grave error, for we will retest the lows, matching apathy with fear to produce an environment that might be considered to be toxic. That is when you should buy — with cock in hand, strong, and with force.

Exodus is very oversold, for the sixth consecutive day. This is an unprecedented move lower, one formulated without the comforts respite and this fact is why the pin action concerns me. Could this be the market communicating something ominous or is this merely a pit stop en route to new highs?

Faster traders might be inclined to short now and cover quickly. I am looking for a massive move higher and have been patient with my cash, trying to avoid head fakes. We will bottom, finally, when the last bull gives up and the general tone of the market is dreadful and of course poisonous.

I’ve been discussing this in Exodus and figured I’d tell you, the unwashed reader class, about it too. This tape looks like it’s having problems adjusting to the volatility. All of the programmed buying/selling machines, AI, and HFT algos are being fucked over in a very hard and serious way.

DO NOT BE SURPRISED to see a very big and outsized heart attack move to the downside. Prepare for this eventuality, by removing leverage and making sure you have dry powder to buy a severe dip.

The fun will begin, in earnest, after 3pm. I hope that I am wrong — but retail is about to get forked over, like naked radishes, soon — as margin clerks make their rounds, zeroing out accounts with zeal.

Presently, I am 40% cash, having sold out of BREW this afternoon.

UPDATE: I stopped out of TNA and YINN, for a 13% and 10% loss. Stops will be respected, no matter how OS we get.

55% cash

We had a nice set up this morning, but it failed and here we are with the Nasdaq marginally higher and a wide variety of tech stocks doing nothing. This morning I bought SSTI, NEWR, and NTNX, hoping and praying to the stock Gods, proving to them that I’ve been kind and just. All I’ve asked for is to be forgiven from my trespasses and to enjoy a nice lift off the bottom.

Speaking of bottoms, how many of you traderFAGS are betting on a bounce? I see the President is out talking greasy about the Fed, which will serve him no good. Chairman Powell is more likely to do more cuts now, not less, in order to maintain the independence of the Fed.

God do I miss Dr. Ben.

Sorry to cut this short, especially since we’re having such a grand time together. At home, I am wholly distracted and now a full time chef and livery driver — very busy throughout the day; and the house is very noisy and I have little recourse for peace and quiet. Because of this, I am in bed earlier, sleeping better, and exhausted almost constantly. The last thing I need is a market squall.

Dear StockFathers,

Take down the bears with a great vengeance now and be sure to annihilate them and take from them everything.

Amen.

FYI: Current Exodus OS score now #15 lowest in our history — the lowest since 2011.

I’m already counting my chickens before they’re hatched. This much is certain: we’re do for a stupendous rally, in spite of all of the horrible horribles. It’s important that the weak get washed out and the tree of speculation be nourished with the blood of the uninitiated.

Futures were down 300 last night and now the open is somewhat of a snooze fest, down by only 132. I see sell orders piling up and people tripping over themselves towards the exit. This is precisely the conditions for a mania, people doing things without thinking, acting both rash and incoherent — because they’re trying to save themselves from destruction.

TOO LATE — you’ve already been destroyed.

I have 50% cash and 50% insanity. I will be minding those position and stopping out of them should be take another spill lower. I can always get back in.

Good luck.

PS: Once we bounce and rally hard, you’ll be tempted to believe the worst is behind us and that we’ll rally right back to the highs. This is the sort of thinking that gets people killed. The RETEST THE LOW-FAGS will be out in force immediately, requesting we pass the crucible of relieving the horrible times before heading back up, so bear that in mind.

All points to a short term spike that will rip your fucking faces off — knock your jawbone loose, and then mudstomp the rest of your mug into dust.

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Nasdaq futures are -45, which is practically up considering today’s -300 squall.

Watch the USD/CNY cross. Right now, nothing.

Here’s Trump making sure the Fed hikes again in order to maintain a semblance of independence.

“I think the Fed is making a mistake. They are so tight. I think the Fed has gone crazy,” the president said after walking off Air Force One in Erie, Pennsylvania for a rally.

“Actually, it’s a correction that we’ve been waiting for for a long time, but I really disagree with what the Fed is doing,” the President added.

I’ve always been against the Fed hikes, but they haven’t got in the way for two years — until now. There was never a reason to hike rates in terms of the economy — but that wasn’t why they were. The Fed was hiking rates in order to increase the returns of pension accounts nationally, those tethered to bonds, forced to abide by certain risk criteria. Zero interest rates was a curse and a pox upon pension managers. They need higher rates in order to keep their Ponzi schemes going, otherwise we were barreling towards perdition with GE being the poster child of corporate malfeasance.

In terms of inflation, the rich enjoy 15%+ inflation, YOY. Everyone else, nothing.

The NIKKEI is -3.3%, but the DAX is only indicating -0.9% now. If this holds up, I can assure you will be bounce in the morning and Le Fly would have won again, in a most admirable and respectable way.

Enjoy your suppers.

*** iBC Crash Special: Exodus free trials for all, only email required ***

What did we learn during this decline?

This time was different. Please remember this and know that these squalls, or market panics, are unique and rare. In the future, when markets drop, you might be inclined to think this will happen again. You’ll be wrong and you’ll also lose a fuck load of money betting on a crash.

What did we do?

I bet on the Exodus oversold signal because it had worked well in the past. At the same time, I respect my stops. The net result was me losing money, but with only 35% of my account exposed to the tape. In other words, my losses were very muted, in comparison to what could’ve been.

At the close of trade, I did two things — went long TQQQ and OKTA, reducing my cash to 50%.

I can promise you two things, drawing from my deep reservoir of experience, markets will either drop fantastically at the open tomorrow or scream higher. There will not be a milquetoast response. Please ignore the futures tonight and definitely ignore the immediate after-hours buzz, which will be dreadful.

Keep an eye on Asia. Should China trade up, that will improve US futures. Should European markets drop by only 1 or 2%, we might get a feverish rally going in the AM. One thing is for certain, the Fed needs to back off from hiking rates and respect the risk off tone to markets.

Hello gents.

You’ve been dispatched and your cocks have been chopped off. But what if I told you you could get them back. It wouldn’t take long before everything you once had is back in your possession. Please imagine yourselves by the sea, maybe on a beautiful yacht with a beautiful woman, drinking Champagne, properly frapped, and of a good year. Now see yourself driving that beautiful yacht, atop the beautiful blue sea, with little fishes shadowing you on the side, directly and violently into a coral reef — immersing yourselves in fire.

That’s what’s going to happen to you, lest you step in there and buy some fucking stocks. We’re talking about the green halcyon dream that is America. Don’t squander it, else find yourselves making omelettes in the dirt with naked people in the foreground, your wife busy in the back beating a donkey to death for supper.

If you’re long and getting drilled and your stocks have hit stop limits, you are not permitted to participate in this dip buying excursion. This blog is tailor made for gents like me — the ones who’ve lost some coin, but had the foresight to parlay significant dollars aside for this very moment.

With 5% of my 60% cash, I bought TQQQ.

The Dow is off by more than 500 and the crash we’ve all been waiting for is finally here. My Bubble Basket of high value stocks is now down for the year — off a staggering 15% the past two weeks. This is real pain.

What to look for now is cessation of the selling and a motherfucking V shaped recovery. I know that sounds reckless, but that’s exactly how these things usually end up.

Here’s the skinny. There aren’t any outsized moved in forex or bond markets. There isn’t any economic news worth noting. So, this is, basically, a standard drop off the mountain tape — caused by greed, avarice, and now panic.

The only thing I’ve bought today is NBEV and I’m up. I’ve made a few dumb plays the past week and have almost made up for them by selling early and avoiding the lion share of this drop. Bear in mind, I was 65% cash heading into today. My next move will be sublime, an exercise and trading prowess unseen since Bud Fox hit the bid on Bluestar, only to then buy it all.

My quant fund is 120% invested now, so I’m quite sad about things in general. Life, as I know it, is no longer fun and gay. It’s onerous and I feel more odious today than ever before. Each passing day is another 52 week low for House Fly. In order to take the edge off and do something meaningful with my life, I stepped in and bought NBEV again — ’round $6.

I’ve never lost money in the name and I see TLRY is shooting higher.

Every one I know it nearly suicidal over this “dip.” The ephemeral winds of glory and gathered excellence have been washed away now, by a tidal wave of grave stupidity and expeditious ignorance.

Heed my warnings, but also know that I am 60% cash and long a marijuana stock into the jagged teeth of a deleterious decline.

I very well might be losing my mind.

Stock traders before Kavanaugh and after pic.twitter.com/mJTeQNs8hl

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 10, 2018