Flipped Bonds — Rolled into a Big Ass Bank

I sold TLT for a 1.5% gain, TMF for a wash and rolled into JPM — initial purchase at 5% of holdings. I could’ve bought an ETF, or a regional — but why fuck around when JPM is clearly the dominant bank in the country?

We are enjoying yet another Friday melt up. Market breadth is at 74% and my Quant is higher by 0.5%. This is the last day of the March Quant portfolio, so stay tuned for April’s — to be announced inside Exodus on Monday. Take a free trial if you’re interested, or how about join for the month you fucking misers?

Don’t expect a fade today. As rates melt up, so will the banks. The combination of strong banks and tech is almost indefensible for bears. Expect a rout.

The LYFT ipo is going to be ultra-violent. At $72, the market cap will be around $25 billion. Estimated revenues for 2019 is $2.5b, placing their price to sales ratio at an astounding 10x revenues. If the company is growing 100% per annum, this is not a crazy valuation — all things considered. They are losing $1b per annum.

The problem here is the fucking IPO process. There isn’t a fat chance the stock will open up at $72. My guess, the stock will soar to $125 — which would boost the valuation to $42 billion or a price to sales ratio of `17x — making the shares almost uninvestable.

Here is an early Lyft investor, CEO of Oceanic Partners, shilling for this investment.

The yield curve is fucked up now, with the 1yr treasury yielding more than the 10yr. Banks borrow short, lend long — so this is a deleterious environment for them. Judging by their 5% pullback over the past two weeks, investors fret the future.

But will it last? What is the next direction for yields?

Look at the divergence between the Nasdaq and yields — uncommon. But the one thing yields haven’t been able to do is predict a downturn. If anything, when the spread between the two widens, it’s time to short treasuries — since yields bottom out and shoot higher with stocks.

The sector that will benefit most of a rise in yields are the banks. The sectors that will be hurt: REITs, Utes, and high dividend paying old man stocks.

Your opinions are invalid and undefined. This is exactly what is going to happen, which means I will be closing out my TMF and TLT positions shortly.

BTW: My Quant portfolio was higher by 2.15% today. What did your mechanized portfolio do?

Good day.

Adding some long exposure here — feeling good in spite of the carnage in my NUGT today.

Today’s buys: GNFT, TWOU.

Several things for you to consider here.

On Friday, March 22nd, the Exodus algos flagged oversold for the entire market. The SPY was $279.25 at the time of this call.

Secondly, the 50 day moving average is about to turn over on the 200, creating “A Golden Fucking Cross” — a technical term that is awfully meaningless — but meaningful because it is followed by so many.

Lastly, the 10yr is at 2.38%. Housing stocks are up 20% for the year. The American real estate market is pistol hot. Gentlemen, we appear to be in a Goldie Lock scenario of low rates, high growth, a dickless Fed, and a crazy President hell bent on higher Nasdaq prices.

Buy at will.

I bought new French Pharma ipo GNFT — major player in NASH drugs.

My worst fears about gold have come to fruition. You know I’ve been worried about a head and shoulders top forming in gold, ever since the head formed after the left shoulder. I went long NUGT with vigor and now it appears the second shoulder, the ever ominous right shoulder has formed — fucking me with this NUGT and AU.

I will hold for one more day and if it doesn’t rebound — I will ironically chalk an L on my ledger — an L, rather incredulously, that I had predicted might occur many weeks ago — but still, nevertheless, fell for the trap.

On the issue of there overall market, in spite of recent weakness, a golden cross is forming on the SPY — the most bullish of market indicators.

Thanks to my positions in LU and FIVE in my Quant, I am up 141bps today.

I’ve been doing this long enough, dealing with the public and ‘professional advisors’, who are nothing more than telephone salesmen shilling for money, to see patterns in behavior. Having a hard core group of traders in Exodus and an extensive membership base, I always touch base with people who cancel — because I want to know how to make the product better and see what happened to that person to make him/her cancel. For the life of me, I cannot think of a single reason why anyone would cancel — if they’re serious about managing money.

And that’s the topic I am going to discuss now, crudely and straightforward.

STOP LISTENING TO FUCKHEADS WHO HAVE AN AGENDA. Their investment plan might not ebb with yours. And if you’re listening to professionals, understand that they literally suck the market’s dick each and every day, falsely claim to know what they’re doing, and simply raise assets for a living in order to charge fees. I know — because I used to be one of those guys.

Every single trade that I do, no matter how fucked up, I telegraph and report the percentage gain or loss. There are times when I look like a complete fucking imbecile, cold, missing call after call. I go short when I should go long — go long when I should go short. I chase stocks topping out, forced to stop out. I buy inverse ETFs when the market is about to turn higher. And you know what? I still crush the market every year. This isn’t a game of perfection. Losing on trades is part of the business. The difference between a winning trader and a loser is the scale of the trades and the size of the drawdowns.

I don’t drawdown. Period, end of discussion.

Right now my trading account, which is 25% of my overall account, is 20% cash, with another 20% in treasuries and gold. Let’s say, worst case scenario markets nose dive and I get stopped out of all my positions, which is -10%. The maximum I will lose, providing my treasuries and gold do nothing (which is highly unlikely), I will drawdown 6% from the highs.

BIG FUCKING DEAL.

If that happens do you really think I’ll just sit there like a fucking idiot and not make money on the downside — in a trend so easy even a StockTwits trader could do it? I don’t mean to be a dick — but I can already see it now — fuckheads held their stocks too long and were too overweight in aggressive as fuck stocks and got wiped out. During the the last big drawdown, I must’ve received 20 emails from readers who got wiped out — asshole options, futures, and tech stocks were to blame.

No, asshole, you are to blame. And it’s not because you’re dumb or a bad trader — but because you let your inner savage take control of your emotions and bet big for no reason whatso-fucking-ever.

In a giant rush? Gonna die soon and want to hit pay dirt? Want to get rich quick? It doesn’t work like that fucked face. Put in the time and structure your shit to win and get back to me in 25 years to thank me.

I woke up in my deathbed with the stiffest neck a man could have. I had to drive my kids to school and I was in a cosmic world of agony for the entire trip. Robotically, I made my way home — took a sojourn into my kitchen and ate a bowl of flavorless, flat gruel.

After that I took a gambit in GLBS — got plugged for 5%. Booked a steep loss in COUP, and generally entertained inside Exodus for the balance of the day. Almost forgot, I made some shrimp paella for lunch and that was great.

Other than that, I had just SIX stocks up today, with some of my largest positions, like NUGT, really down for the day. I did not enjoy the trading day, the chop, and all of the discord that is accompanied with bad tapes. I was going to kill myself, but decided against it — since tomorrow might be an up day.

Exodus had recently flagged oversold and I’m confident that algorithms are back on track again, having been tested through the fires of late 2018.

I bid you farewell and a good day. Hopefully, for the sake of all of us here, nice longs and good people alike, tomorrow will be a much better day.

The action isn’t good. Oil has downticked a little — but still not even down 1%. I sold my GLBS day trade for a 5% loss, sold COUP for a 9% loss and am now staring into an abyss of positions bleeding out. Do I simply wait for them to all be down 10% and stop out or sell them now?

My hedges are TLT, TMF and NUGT — but gold is acting poorly today. I have no shorts and what if, what if, what if the market goes down.

What if?

I’m still of the belief, perhaps foolishly, that is junk bonds aren’t moving, neither should my long bias. I’ve been tossed into the blender on this line of thinking before, so I’m not recalcitrant in the idea that everything has to line up perfectly before I execute a trade. I’m not fucking autistic.

For now, bleeding out with panache, Quant down 1.6% for the session.

You might think it’ll be too late by then, but trust me it won’t be. Oil is your guide, the evergreen indicator that has dominion over equity pricing. Why do I say this?

Markets are dominated by credit. Yields are coming down — which is good for credit — but bad for the FUCKERS at the banks. The companies with the worst credit are oils. Oils are dictated by oil prices. Oil prices are dictated by global demand, which is ruled by global growth or lack thereof. The importance of oil on the markets cannot be stressed enough — it is the lynchpin that holds it all together.

Early going, markets are vacillating, but oil, and HYG, and Apple are higher. In my opinion, you have nothing to fear. I have this GLBS trade going sour on me and I deserve it for attempting to catch lightening in such a stupid bottle.

What can I say? I love to speculate.

I also bought new Chinese IPO TIGR, stopped out of ACIA for -9%, and I’m pretty much flat, all things considered, on the balance today.