Fly Buys: $YELP, $PINS

I bought both YELP and PINS. Don’t ask why.

Over the past few weeks I’ve accumulated a bunch of stocks that, at the time, looked great. But today, not so much. I took losses on almost all of these stocks — some very small, some decent sized. I could’ve held them, stubbornly, or averaged down in them to rescue a losing trade — but I opted to sell them — because if I’m not willing to own them now as a new position — then I shouldn’t own them at all.

sold $HCLP, $SLCA, $CPE, $BE, $SPOT, $TUSK, $IPHI

This raises my cash position to about 35% in my trading account. Being that the market is consolidating and going through some indecision now, I’ll probably hold that cash for another day or two before figuring out how to strike next.

If you’re looking for a main market tell on risk and something to use as a canary in the proverbial coal mine — look no further than NVDA — presently circumnavigating the ass end of the FAGbox.

During the Oct-Dec market meltdown, it was the poster child for sharply lower growth stock. It has since recovered, like everything else, but it also is woefully overvalued based on its historical price to sales ratio. I’d watch this stock closely for a move beneath this range. It it happens, you’re all doomed and will soon need to seek respite inside bomb shelters and stockpile food and water for the fires to come.

You don’t have to buy these two stocks — but you should be fully long here — correlated with the market in stocks that go up when people are bullish. These two names, ZEN and HUBS, represent the very best in SAAS — a software industry brimming with growth and optimism.

I sold both of these stocks much lower — but that doesn’t stop me from delving, mind you, back in for the big run.

IMPORTANT NOTE OUT BY WEDBUSH THIS MORNING REGARDING TESLA.

WEDBUSH: “in our 20 years of covering tech stocks on the Street we view this quarter as one of top debacles we have ever seen while Musk & Co. in an episode out of the Twilight Zone act as if demand and profitability will magically return to the $TSLA story. We are throwing in the white towel on the name as we downgrade our rating .. reflecting our reduced numbers for the coming years and our loss of confidence in the story with no pilot on the plane to navigate through this severe demand turbulence.”

Cuts to neutral.

Overly dramatic horseshit and I’d like to remind people in the business that Wedbush isn’t a real firm and is a joke and the analysts who work there aren’t intelligent and their executives are giant faggots pretending to be relevant.

Case in point: TSLA is basically unchanged.

The entire move lower in the Dow this morning is due to MMM’s miss. Who cares, really?

On the Nasdaq side, things look great — thanks to FB and MSFT. Here are some random news items that caught my attention.

These fuckers are positioning themselves nicely. Stock could run from here.

NEW AGE BEVERAGES CORPORATION (NBEV) announced the global launch of their CBD product portfolio, with the unveiling of their line and shipment of their CBD creams, lotions, and oils to be sold worldwide under its Health Sciences Division.

This complete asshole from BH is at it again. If you’re unfamiliar with Biglari, the young punk who thinks he’s Warren Buffett trying to takeover CBRL, a far superior franchise, in a hostile manner — it’s hilarious. This morning they’re demanding a special divvy.

Cracker Barrel: Biglari Capital affirms 14.7% active stake, sends letter to the Board demanding the company pay a special dividend of at least $3.75 per share and agree to meet face-to-face to explore a ‘potential, mutually advantageous transaction’

Big tech news

Microsoft on call guided Q4 rev in-line after blowing out Q3 estimates; guided double-digit revenue and operating income for FY20

Bad tech news

Xilinx downgraded to Hold at Needham on potential multiple compression risk (139.72)
Needham downgrades XLNX to Hold from Buy. XLNX’s F4Q19 results were in-line to slightly better than Street estimates. However while F1Q20 revenue guidance was above Street consensus, GM guidance was well below the Street’s estimates. Solid F4Q19 results were driven by continued strength in the Wireless Comms business, which accounted for all of the F4Q19 growth in Comms as the Wired business was slightly down Q/Q. While Comms growth has been impressive, firm was concerned XLNX’s valuation multiple may compress due to risks including a deceleration in Wireless Comms reflecting the encroachment of baseband ASICs, the potential for inventory corrections should 5G deployments outside of Korea be delayed and the decline in GM in F1H20. As a result, they are downgrading XLNX shares to Hold from Buy and moving to the sidelines until the multiple compression risks can be mitigated.

The XLNX news is a bummer — but I’m not sure it means much, unless other semis come out and warn. Judging by the market’s behavior, I don’t think earnings will be bad this quarter. I’ll be fishing for trading ideas.

This is a battle the bears on TSLAQ cannot win. Elon is flying fucking rockets into outerspace, creating silent leaf blowers, blow torches — things of that nature. His cars make other cars look like horses and you’re shorting the stock — because you don’t like his tweets and you’re forever butthurt because his IQ is 100 points higher than yours.

CNBC sucking Tesla-Bear dick.

After hours, Tesla didn’t even come close to matching earnings, yet the stock is unchanged. This is equal to getting kicked down a flight of stairs, but first someone snipping your balls off with a pair of pliers.

Tesla misses by $1.93, misses on revs; guides significantly reduced Q2 net loss, below estimates; expects to return to profitability in Q3; reaffirms FY19 production, expects positive OCF less cap-ex every quarter; unveils Model Y pricing

You can cite all of the fucked up tweets you want regarding Musk, and even bitch and moan about top level employees leaving and nothing will change. The stock isn’t going much lower and likely to go higher. You are literally betting against the man likely to build a fucking time machine. When your net worth hits $00.00 for placing this erroneous bet, don’t ever forget that Le Fly tried to save you.

I’ve been busy today decorating my house for a birthday party. I see my oil stocks got fucking wrecked. This is typical and I always expect to lose money in my energy bets. Nevertheless, I’m not at my stops yet and there’s nothing to do until my losses become untenable. Truth is, oil has been jimmying higher at the same time chemical stocks decreasing, which is odd since it implies businesses do not foresee an uptick in end user demand to marry the sudden spike in crude.

For the day, I edge-lorded down by 0.9%, Quant sharply lower by 0.77% thanks to the bashing in of the head in LRN. This is typical and again I expect to undergo some setbacks following a frenetic rise. I will get back to trading more actively tomorrow. As you know, I was down south for the past 5 days, cavorting and sashaying in search of a new plantation.

Today’s only red flag is the move lower in crude stocks. We cannot allow this to continue for too much longer, so you’ll want to keep an eye on that. One more leg lower and I’ll be stopped out of 3 or 4 freshly purchased stocks.

The US 10yr is down by 5 bps and oil stocks are getting hammered. The broader indices are butting up against some resistance here after enjoying fresh record highs. Should you be concerned?

You’d have to be a complete jackass to worry about the downside, just one day after a fresh record high was had. Might I suggest you go shoot a game of pool, or perhaps a game of bridge? There is nothing to see here at all and your time would be best served doing something else.

You can’t buy and you can’t sell. Too early for anything at all.

As for me, I’m planning my daughter’s bday and will be out and about being a Northern Master.

Most of my stocks are down — sending my trading account down 1%. I am being held up by grittier stocks, tough stock, such as TUFN, and flagrantly fouled by the oils. You’d think oil stocks would jerk off higher after the OXY bid for APC — but no. The Stock Gods are perverted and mean spirited and always aim to rape the Third Estate.

I’m kind of liking PD here — but the volume is thin. However, I’d be willing to saw my own arm off if it wasn’t higher 30 days from now.

Net net — shut the fuck up and go out and enjoy the genteel climes.

On 4/12, CVX and APC agreed to merge, a $33 billion deal that made waves in the Permian Basin. This morning OXY stepped into the fray, upped the offer by 20%, and told CVX to fuck off.

“Anadarko has great assets,” Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub said in a interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box ” on Wednesday. “We are the right acquirer … because we can get the most out of the shale.”

The OXY deal is rumored to be 40% cash, which is much greater than CVX’s 25% cash offer. Apparently APC was in negotiations with OXY during the time CVX made its bid — but decline due to the dilutive nature of of the deal for OXY’s shareholders. In other words, they’d have to issue a fuck load of shares in order to acquire APC and they weren’t interested in any of that.

OXY is saying this is a friendly deal — but I doubt it. This new deal is valued at $57 billion.