Changed My Mind…Booked the Gains

I sold $TVIX +5.7%, $TZA +2%, $FAZ +6%, $DRIP +28% — because AAPL is up and semis are up and stocks are trying to climb. So I asked myself, ‘would I buy these fuckers now?’ Since the answer was no, I sold them.

With a part of the proceeds, I went long semis — via SOXL.

Wake me up when crude bounces. Until then, down we go. I kicked out TLRY and SWCH, giving my inverses room to run. I’m up 34% on DRIP and have no desire to lock it in.

Separately, I a sick to my stomach seeing SOLY at $27. I just sold the fucker last month at $8 for a quick pop.

On the bright side, junk bonds are little changed- but the 10yr is now 2.22% and TLT is approaching $130.

FUCKED.

Don’t panic yet. Try to bear in mind this is all a self inflicted wound. But it might get away from Trump and spiral, which would be immeasurably bad for markets. My gut tells me Trump will panic if markets start to panic. Here were are now, futures off by 180 and the Chinese media running rare earth stories, implying they’d stop selling them to America — an embargo of sorts. Some people think an embargo of rare earths could ‘devastate’ US supply chains.

“You suggested that rare earths could become one of China’s countermeasures against the U.S.’s unwarranted suppression…What can I tell you is that if anyone were to use products that are made with the rare earths that we export to curb the development of China, then the people of [south Jiangxi province where rare earths are mined] as well as all the rest of the Chinese people would be unhappy,” said the Chinese official, in an interview. The speaker was described as a “relevant official” from the National Development and Reform Commission.

Rare earth imports are a relatively small part of the $420 billion U.S. goods deficit with China, but their worth far outstrips their dollar value. The materials are critical in the creation of such things as iPhones, electric vehicles and advanced precision weapons.

The Chinese tabloid Global Times also reported Tuesday that China is “seriously considering” limiting rare earth exports to the United States. “Based on what I know, China is seriously considering restricting rare earth exports to the U.S. China may also take other countermeasures in the future,” Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief, wrote on his Twitter account. The editor’s account is followed by traders.

The rare earth card: China's reserves account for roughly 30% of the world's total, and the country produces more than 80% of the world's supply. 80% of the US' rare-earths imports between 2014 and 2017 are from China. pic.twitter.com/7rzoQ7QVd1

— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) May 29, 2019

More importantly, WTI is off by 3%, the 10yr is off 4bps to 2.22% and gold is +0.5%. Classic risk aversion. You were told — you ignored — now you pay the price.

Let’s renew our relevant buzzwords. I am going to instill fear in you on a micro-level, then the faggots will pick it up at CNBC, one or two of my readers there, and then broadcast it live for the world. By tomorrow afternoon, everyone will be singing the same funeral song, well on our way to perdition.

The buzzwords are “heading towards recession.”

Renewed trade tensions and a slump in economic data put U.S. profits and economic growth at risk, Morgan Stanley warned Tuesday.

“Numerous leading companies may be starting to throw in the towel on the second half rebound–something we have been expecting,” the bank writes.

Wilson adds that market risks have been reflected in the bond market, pointing to an unusual phenomenon in government debt yields.

The second half rebound has been wilted under the forest fire that is Trump’s trade war. Valuations are excessive. We should barrel back towards the January lows — because the conditions of right now are inexorably worse than back then. Very soon, high yield debt will break lower and then leveraged loans. Once the leverage loan racket has been devoured, all will be lost and you will have yourselves a brand spanking new credit crisis — with all of the wondrous trimmings.

Nasdaq futures are OFF by 40, fucked face. WTI is sharply lower. Bond yields sinking. I fucking told you, I fucking told you not to get involved with all of that bullish fervor. This is what happens when the bulls get that exuberance — 900 points down fuckers. I call that capitulation.

Sorry for sperging out like that. I get really excited when investors get their virtual heads chopped off.

Good night.

You thought stocks were going up today — but you were wrong. I told you not to get involved with dat — and now here you are wallowing in your misery.

TEN THOUSAND SELL ORDERS DESCEND UPON YOU.

I laugh into your face — as your stops get hit and your margin calls mount. Just earlier today, I bought some FSLY — because I want to donate money back to the stock Gods Fastly. God willing, it will trade higher — but I have little to no confidence anything at all trading higher, with exception to value stocks.

Get out there and raise some cash, buy some old man stocks, and hedge via your favorite inverse ETFs. Maximize leverage, and get ready for the drop of your lives!

We’re down a staggering 6bps to 2.267% on the 10 yr, people. We’re in full crisis mode in fixed income, yet stocks are devoid of any sense of fear and cannot recognize danger.

It gets boring telling you what markets ‘should be doing’, when that’s meaningless nonsense. The only thing that matters is what’s actually happening.

So what is happening?

Breadth is at 50% today — but SAAS stocks are +1.6% — led by PLAN and AYX. Semis are weak again and INTC looks like it wants to go to zero. Oil stocks are incredibly weak and, overall, I want to believe stocks are about to break lower. But, truthfully, there is nothing in this tape, aside from bond yields crashing, that would lead me to believe we’re in any real danger, sadly. My Bubble Basket is higher by 1.6% today — hardly the harbinger of doom that I was looking for.

Until we get a break in something, I’ll keep wish casting for a COLLAPSE and hope to god and the heavens we’ll land ourselves into an apocalyptic environ where stocks cannot withstand the selling.

Andrew Left from Citron Research has crawled out from his crypt to deliver this all important, self serving message.

JMIA IS A FRAUD!!!!

What the fuck is going on here? Left is a Alex Jones of finance, without question. But what on God’s earth is this video all about? What’s up with that fucking suit?

You’ve been warned! Consider yourselves on notice.

Markets are popping — but yields are plunging again and crude is weak. There’s a lot of false optimism out there — men clad in fanciful clothing — buying up stocks because they’re in a good fancy fucking mood. Well, I’m in a dour mood and I don’t like fancy clothing either. Truth is, I haven’t bothered to send my fancy fucking clothes in for dry cleaning in months, instead opting for black t shirts and ordinary pants. I dress like a janitor these days and couldn’t give two fucks about it.

Do you think I’m going to buy stocks into a Chinese trade war? The guy dressed like a janitor in a dour mood doesn’t do that. He instead waits in the tall grass with this hot mop — waiting to slap the shit out of someone.

I’m making coin today — long CRON, LK, SILK and my Quant is up 65bps. Heck, even my DRIP is higher. But I’m not in DRIP for a mere 25%. I am in it for the glory and for final victory. To accomplish these lofty goals, I’ll need to dispirit the last bull — the guy who buys dips as a matter of practice because it has served him so well over the years. We want those old habits to die hard and with it — his entire brokerage account. Zeroed the fuck out.

What hatred. What unrivaled anger!

Fuck off.

I’ve been letting my dogs run loose in the yard the past few months. The way I figure, why should I have to walk these dogs when they could go walk themselves? Granted, they’ll defecate on the yard and kill a few birds — but the yard is big enough and there are plenty of birds. Just the other day I saw my coyote raid a nest and kill a bird. It was quite mortifying, so I interrupted her by spraying my water hose at her.

We’re going down the home stretch with the house now and hopefully we’ll field a few offers and accept and then get the hell out of here. I’ve become impatient with the whole process — because the logistics of the move looms. At House Fly, nothing gets done in an organized way without my direct assistance. The idea of moving all of this furniture seems beyond stupid. I’d rather junk it then move it — 7 years of nonsense collected through various boutiques and stores has resulted in clutter and nothing all that meaningful.

Are you the type to buy 10 things for $50 or 1 really good thing for $500?

The 10yr is down 3bps this morning to 2.29%. I see futures are mildly higher — but stocks will drop if the bond market keeps surging like this. There is a risk off vibe to the recent China trade war news. Couple that with the seasonal risk off mood and there’s a strong chance we’ll continue lower.

*** TRY Exodus FREE FOR 7 DAYS ***

Vacation plans have been made for every single successful hedge fund manager in America. The market has done wonderfully thus far, so everyone can relax and enjoy their summers from Newport to St.Bart’s. The keys to the trading turret will be subsequently turned over to junior to mind the store, while senior is out doing lines of blow and jet skiing whilst passed out drunk. Junior’s number 1 job will be to not fuck anything up, but he always does. Expect volatility to shrink to a crawl, unless of course President Trump opts of ratchet up his great big beautiful trade war.

Seasonally, these are dry austere months. Do not expect anything exciting until your local hedge fund managers comes back from his fall vacation in the Berkshires.

If you’ve been keeping track like I have, semis have been fucking poleaxed beyond belief over the past month. Intel, for God’s sake, is down 25% over the past 4 weeks and the leading industries are, more or less, retarded.

This is what we’re going to do. Listen to me very closely. We’re going to short stocks heavily and lean on them until they topple over. The Exodus algorithms now reflect the extreme stress levels of Oct-Dec 2018 and will be incredibly useful to assess a potential pivot points for stocks. Until then, I’d argue you should raise cash, hedge your long term portfolios, and start enjoying the warmer climes.