Delusional

If you think we will rally off a -533,000 employment number, you’re out of your God damned mind. In the event that we do rally, defying all laws of logic and reason, dating back to the ancient Greek days, “The Fly” will be sure to cordially sell into it, mind you, with the utmost amounts of energy and conviction—as if he were punching holes through office grade sheet rock (out of sequence, makes no sense, I know).

Here’s the cold hard facts:

America will be embedded in a deep recession, until late 2010.

There is NO FUCKING WAY the market will be up in 2009, in light of what just occurred.

The shocking decline in oil happened too fast. As a result, many states will “enjoy” budget short falls.

Although it would be nice to see the U.S. savings rate climb, in the process, it will be incredibly debilitating to the economy. Think for a moment: how many stores did The Gap open up, based upon a loose credit environment?

Look, I am not saying we will fall off a cliff, like Wild E. Cayote. Just don’t get overly optimistic about a quick turn in the markets.

With my money, I hedged my FAZ position with small buys in JPM, down a buck. And, I’ve been buying ample amounts of ERY/DUG, due to the fact that oil is fucked on a spindle. And, I sold out of all of my TNA, for a loss. And, I blew out of my GME, for a gain.

Basically, I think SKF/FAZ go much higher. However, in the event men with tight orange leotards try to “bottom pick,” owning God’s bank (JPM) is not a terrible idea.

NOTE: It appears my GVA short may finally start performing.

What a coincidence.

In 2008, as the stock market cratered and the housing market collapsed, more young members of the Army, Air Force and Navy decided to re-up. While several factors might explain the rise in re-enlistments, including a decline in violence in Iraq, Pentagon officials acknowledge that bad news for the economy is usually good news for the military.

In fact, the Pentagon just completed its strongest recruiting year in four years.

Now we can get ready for the big one.

UPDATE: iBC’s own, Woodshedder, is revealed here. And, he was interviewed by The Wall Street Transcript here. Two things: Wood is not nearly as ugly as I envisioned him to be. And, secondly, he is becoming a media whore. What’s next, CNBC?

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxLk3uf2msk 450 300]

Fuck this market and everything it represents. May the shareholders of XOM suffer from dysentery and lose all of their money, while getting their heads chewed off by alligators.

Although I timed the release of some of my upside ETF’s today with perfection, I can’t get too excited.The market is a fucking meat grinder and investors are the meat.

The one thing worth betting on, with the family inheritance, is that oil stocks are fucked on a spindle. As a point in fact, I like ERY and DUG here, with the confidence and fervor of 10 mountain lions inside of a locked room full of U.S. congressmen.

Going into tomorrow’s numbers, I want to be net short, despite the fact that the market may buy on the bad news. There comes a point when buying bad news is utterly fucktarded. I heard people say it before: “bad news is not hurting the tape. Therefore the market is a buy.”

Bullshit.

How many times has that worked for you, really?

Eventually, the overwhelming tide of bad news rips your face off and sends your portfolio to zero, where it belongs, if I may be so bold as to say so.

In summary:

Aside from my small short position in GVA, I am long FAZ, ERY, DUG, REW, EEV and FXP, with upside hedges in a variety of equities and TNA, BGU.

I sold 10,000 FAS @ $24.56.

Taking off some hedges.

UPDATE: I sold 20,000 FAS, north of $23. I will hold 10,000, just in case

UPDATE: I am buying some FAZ, sub $51.

UPDATE: I sold 5,000 CAL for a quick intraday fuck you.

UPDATE: I bought multiple blocks of EEV, ERY and DUG.

I bought 5,000 BDK @ $43.43.

Disclaimer: If you buy BDK because of this post, in the year of the dog, pestilence and famine will descend upon your neighborhood. And, you may lose money.

I bought 5,000 CAL @ $16.

Disclaimer: If you buy CAL because of this post, in the year of the pig, great miseries will afflict those who supply black liquids, which will cause disease, war and starvation. And, you may lose money.

Putting my bias aside, there are a number of stocks that appear to be breaking out, regardless of how bad the fundamentals are.

Via The PPT, here are some stocks worth monitoring (stocks sorted by intraday hybrid score change of 10% or more/ hybrid score over 2.50+).

JPM 36.5 2.73
UPS 31.37 2.68
SFD 29.9 2.52
BZH 29.9 2.52
ODP 29.52 2.72
CAL 29.49 2.81
PRU 28.57 2.61
CBL 28.57 2.61
WHR 27.1 2.72
JBLU 27 3.01
KMX 26.61 2.76
HAIN 26.61 2.76
CYN 25.83 3.02
PHH 25.78 2.83
KSWS 25.52 3.59
MW 25.11 2.89
MAT 24.91 3.36
LEG 24.89 2.91
AGN 24.27 2.97
LHO 24.1 3.09
JCG 24.07 2.68
COH 24.05 3.25

Personally, I am attracted to retail, considering how beaten down the sector is. Unfortunately, I sold a lot of my M yesterday. However, I still own TBL and GME. Other names that are on my watch list include: VLCM, DECK, GCO, JOSB, ARO, DBRN, GYMB, BJ, SKS and GES.

As insane as my holdings are, actually, they are working today, thanks to the fucktardedness of those who created the 300% etf’s. My FAS (300% upside banks) is outstripping my FAZ (300% downside banks), by at least 2%, which makes no sense. And, FXP is up a few. On top of that, the few individual longs that I kept, like M, GU and GME, are doing just fine. And, even though the market is down, TNA is up.

Go figure.

Sometime soon, I want to sell all of my upside etf’s and embrace the downside, with great vigor. However, the market is as stubborn as an Ox in shit. So, for now, I’ll just wait it, keeping an open eye out for some sort of evil anvil to drop down on you bullish fuckers.

As an aside, “The Fly” is sick with some sort of dark aged plague. So, as you could understand, blogging isn’t exactly all that interesting to me right now. Nonetheless, I’ll make an effort to update you corn can fuckers, whenever I’m feeling good about my positions and shit.

Okay, I am really feeling this set up here. It reminds of the days when all of you ass-lickers went long, back in March, only to have Stuntman Mike peel off on your fucking craniums.

I’m all in, with hardly any cash. My conundrum is the hodge podge of long/short etf’s on the sheets. However, I prefer to be positioned that way, in order to time my sells. In other words, into a rally, I will let go of my upside etf’s, while holding the inverses. When I am 100% convinced of a breakdown, I will take the proceeds and average in.

This is a very delicate trade, which requires plutonium powered time machines and space alien machine swagger.

Don’t try this shit at home. You will get merc’d.

Back to the real world.

The NYC Port Authority got no bids in its $300 million bond auction today. Do not ignore this as idle hucklebuck, if there even is such a thing. If the NYC Port Authority can’t raise money, no one can. And I mean no one.

Here’s the facts:

“The Fly” was long equities, due to “The Turkey Gods,” not for some sort of bottoming out rally. Fuck that. We are going into year two of the recession and, thus far, there have been zero signs of a respite. As a matter of fact, things have gotten far worse—more than I could have ever imagined.

So, the choice is yours. You can get long, like a fucktarded homo asshat, into a gut wrenching -6% 4th qt. GDP— or fade this rally and come out the other end like a fucking victorious gladiator.

Remember, the beginning of every new year sets the tone for the calender year. If you recall, we got plastered in the first two weeks of January of 2008; and I fucking nailed it.. There is no fucking chance we rally up, into the beginning of 2009. No-fucking-chance.

Hence the phrase will reemerge: “The Fly” wins all the time, even when he appears to be losing badly.”

UPDATE: Solomon’s coin trick!