Get in the Deflationary Vortex

All of you fried rice loving meatloaf throwers are not only wrong when it comes to reflation and growth in Asia; you’re exactly wrong.

See, good Sir, the money that is being created or printed is being thrown into a deflationary vortex, mind you. The destruction of capital, worldwide, far outweighs the bullshit trillion dollar stimulus package.

And, I hear many of you discuss the virtues of Chinese banking institutions. As a point in fact, you praise the Asian lenders for being smart and not having fucked up balance sheets. Well, I have news for you again, good Sir, Asian banks, particularly Chinese ones, are fucked on a spindle.

The decline in property values is rapidly accelerating in Asia, indeed. Furthermore, the nonsense capital ratios you read of, regarding Chinese banks, is all fiction. Wait until the Western dollars file out of China, then tell me how self sustainable their bullshit economy is, with their low standards of living, coupled with industry after industry being sustained by government incentives aka life support.

To bet against Asia and their currencies, I like EEV.

Look, I’m not here to throw acid in your face. “The Fly” is all about sharing the wealth of ideas, while kicking old men (47.5 and older) down shockingly big storm drains.

Hell, I make lots of mistakes. Just this morning, after giving a big huffy puffy chested lecture about “staying on the sidelines,” I went out, like an imbecile, and bought PFG a buck higher than where it is now. I deserve the loss and more.

It’s hard sitting on 90% cash. You have to be a special type of animal to just box watch and do nothing. If the weather was warmer, I could go swimming or go for a jog. But, NYC weather is like a fucking Siberian wasteland in the winter. I’m trapped and have no choice but to invest.

As for the markets:

I warned you about “Getting in the Funnel.” Some of you heeded my dire warnings, while most of you laughed, did a few lines of low grade blow, then bought USB on Guy Adami’s rec. Now, I am warning you about entering “The Deflationary Vortex.” You can do so at your own volition. However, just know, “The Fly” is never wrong for a period longer than 3 weeks. Furthermore, the dollar will punch your lights out, should you choose to sell it short.

Finally, I want to sell short all oil stocks, going into earnings. To do this, I have opted to short cut it by staying long DUG and ERY. However, at the moment, all of my positions are light.

I still have a 90% cash position, so you know.

I bought 5,000 ERY @ $41.72.

Disclaimer: If you buy ERY because of this post, you will spend all of your idle cash on utter bullshit. And, you may lose money.

I bought 10,000 PFG @$15.30.

Disclaimer: If you buy PFG because of this post, all bank stocks will go to zero, taking your deposits with them. And, you may lose money.

Here we go again. The plan to save the world, via the banks, is about to being— again. NTRS, which is on my possible buy list, just beat the street. Expect CNBC to suck its dick, all day long, similar to what they did with JPM—prior to it being skinned alive.

Right now I have more than 90% of my assets in cash.

I will not buy into this rally, due to my aversion to fuckery. However, at the same time, I may choose to close out whatever inverse etf’s I have left, namely EEV and SRS.

I went long 10,000 DUG towards the end of trading yesterday. I suppose the only course of action is to just deal with losing some coin on that transaction today. But, with the oil companies about 1 week away from disappointing en masse, time is on my side. I will buy more DUG on dips.

On the long side, if I was so inclined, I might buy some COGT, OXPS or even some BK.

As for upside etf’s, scalping a quick FAS long is worthy of a shot, providing the banks bounce here. Expect the Obama administration to unveil lots of plans that can boost sentiment. However, the million dollar question is: how punitive will such said plans be to the banks?

Personally, I am outright bewildered as to why our banking executives are not in jail. How the fuck can they continue to get away with this shit, without prosecution?

Let’s call a spade a spade: those cocksuckers have been lying to everyone for years. Maliciously, they hid losses and artificially propped up their balance sheets, so that they could enjoy the fruits of fraud, via exorbitant bonuses.

All I know, the Enron fuckers were goose stepped to jail rather quickly. Conversely, Congress seems totally disinterested, when it comes to nailing a few bad GS men to the altar of integrity.

Fuckers.

Bottom line: I will be sitting out the initial move in the market, mainly because I do not trust it. If anything, I’ll jump on board the afternoon rally and play the momentum into the bell.

While it’s true, the market is in the process of skinning people who are long stocks alive, such as hideously ugly folks like Don Luskin and Zachary Karabell; at some point, one might want to get long stocks with large net cash per share ratios.

Within financials, it’s incredibly hard to discern what’s real and what’s not, since they are all lying cocksucking ham and eggers. Nonetheless, there are a few worth exploring.

In addition, while the economy is in rapid descent, it’s hard to forecast how much cash will be left on company balance sheets, since it’s entirely possible that such said companies may start bleeding out losses.

Nevertheless, I have compiled a list, broken down by sectors, courtesy of The PPT of course, for you—the internet schmuck—to peruse.

Tech

NTE

OVTI

VIGN

AVX

BHE

SNPS

COGT

ERTS

AAPL

PC

Basic Materials

CF

ASH

Healthcare

HUM

Consumer Goods

MGA

SKX

Financials

OXPS

NITE

AMP

PBCT

PFG

NTRS

SCHW

BK

BEN

Industrials

SGR

MDR

PCR

Services

KBR

FMCN

ABFS

UPDATE: Bob

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilTQJ6vUkE0&feature=channel_page 450 300]

I have never seen the British pound down this much (5.5%) in one day. You can track the pound via FXB.

Without a doubt, there are many people stuck in the funnel today, trying to escape The Great Obama Crash of 2009. Howsoever, due to the conviction of the bears, via egregious selling pressure applied to the banks, there is no respite.

The losses in the banks, worldwide, are staggering. Look at RBS. Look at BCS. For the love of healthy hair follicles, look at BK.

Today the world is expressing their cynicism, with regards to the notion of “change” and “hope.” Despite the flowery rhetoric from President Obama, his actions, through appointments and stimulus proposals, suggest we are in for more of the same.

On days like this, it’s important to remember the people who got it wrong. Remember the mustard seed motherfuckers from CNBC and throw eggs at your televisions, whenever they appear on your bullshit goggleboxes.

Look, I’m more than happy to be in cash right now. While it’s true, it would have been fantastic to be heavily short, kicking old men down idle sewer pipes. However, 2009 is going to a very long, painful year for equity holders. There is no need to rush into a half hazard trade.

Looking at the banks, I have no desire to short them down here, nor go long. See, recent actions in the U.K. tell me that all major banks are subject to nationalization. Essentially, the equity of all banks are at great risk here. On the other hand, I am not crazy enough to short stocks, already down 50% intra-day.

If anything, towards the end of trade, I may buy 10,000 DUG or 5,000 ERY, due to XOM‘s retarded persistence in the high 70’s. That fucker deserves to be much, much lower.

Trade accordingly.

UPDATE: I sold out of VCLK @ $5.59.

UPDATE II: I bought 10,000 DUG @ $27.95.

UPDATE III: There is no need for “The Fly” to opine on today’s market close, since he is in a glowing state of “winship.” Instead, I offer you a little poem, written by none other than Karl Marx.

1. Abolition of property in land and application of all rents of land to public purposes.
2. A heavy progressive or graduated income tax.
3. Abolition of all right of inheritance.
4. Confiscation of the property of all emigrants and rebels.
5. Centralisation of credit in the hands of the State, by means of a national bank with State capital and an exclusive monopoly.
6. Centralisation of the means of communication and transport in the hands of the State.
7. Extension of factories and instruments of production owned by the State; the bringing into cultivation of waste-lands, and the improvement of the soil generally in accordance with a common plan.
8. Equal liability of all to labour. Establishment of industrial armies, especially for agriculture.
9. Combination of agriculture with manufacturing industries; gradual abolition of the distinction between town and country, by a more equal distribution of the population over the country.
10. Free education for all children in public schools. Abolition of children’s factory labour in its present form. Combination of education with industrial production.

There is poetry and symbolism being represented in stocks today, despite the grand party in Washington. While millions of hapless dogs celebrate one man in D.C., millions of fucktarded, dick faced bullshitters are having their portfolios microwaved today, as banks march to zero.

From STT to AIB to BAC to C to WFC to JPM, times are tough for the optimistic type.

I know many of you assholes were convinced that God himself would not allow such a trading day, while President Barack the Builder celebrated like it was 1999 in Washington. Forcefully, you left messages on “The Fly’s” blog, pertaining to the bullish nature of stocks and pointed out that a new bull market was upon us.

You told your friends and family members to buy mutual funds and dastardly bank stocks, due to the inherent belief that our Federal Government could make things better with a snap of the hand.

However, as your face gets melted off by Chinese roman candles, you now realize the error in your ways. You want to apologize to your friends and family. You want to beg forgiveness to “The Fly” for being such a blockheaded dick; but it’s too late.

“The Fly” does not accept your apology. Instead, he will chuckle at you, while large capital losses sack the entirety of your bullshit internet brokerage account.

There is an old saying that can be applied to such arduous times. It goes: “The Fly wins all the time, even when he appears to be losing badly.”

Most ignore such sayings, and discard them as “urban legend or fantasy.” However, for the select few, the chosen ones, those words are golden and quite useful, especially when it comes to the business of buying new cars or other important shit, from the proceeds of egregious stock market gains.

As for the market:

I sold the rest of my FAZ, north of $75. My cash position is now 92%. Barring some sort of miracle, I will sit out the rest of the trading day, while eating sandwiches. In other words, I do not trust this tape and want no part of it.

Sometime soon, I will sell all of my shorts, which include EEV, SRS, and REW. And, furthermore, I may initiate a new short position in XOM, just for old times.

Starting with the share prices of BAC, WFC, STT, COP and other fine American corporations.

UPDATE: I know it is very tempting to trade something on this historical day. However, considering the dismal outlook for banking shares today, coupled with the emotions of Lord Lancelot being sworn in as King, “The Fly” has decided to go take a nap instead.

Fuck the noise. I do not care to partake in this assholish tape. Plus anyway, I have a 90% cash position and year to date gains of about 13%. There is not logical reason for me to rush into an inauguration day “fuck you, you’re dead, ha, ha, ha” trade.

More on this later.

Here is the short list. Progressively, I will narrow the list down to “Four Horseman of Certain Death,” for 2009. NOTE: this list does not include “non-financials.” Sometime soon, I will reveal a “top fucked” list for the oil/gas sector.

SLG, MAC, COF, LYG, WF, SHG, SLM, MET, CMA, Mi, ZiON, ESS, TCO, FHN, PACW, LM and WFC.

Reminder: “The Fly’s Four Horseman of Certain Death,” 2008–

DSL—all the way to zero.

CORS

FED

FHN

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