“The Fly’s” One and Only Wishlist

I am like a vampire perched on top of a building, like a gargoyle, waiting for blood to flow through the streets. It’s not an easy thing to do, waiting for the market to crater. In other words, I am a vampire gargoyle.

I’ve predicted numerous pullbacks over the past 5 years, here on iBC. My best was the “correction” of biblical proportions in 2008-2009, and then my keenly timed oversized VXX position one week prior to the flash crash.

Last year I missed the correction by a week and paid dearly for it. This year I expect to be fooled, but ultimately correct.

This is hardly a pullback. Everyone is confident that Bernanke will bid up their shares again. However, they are forgetting earnings seasons and its onerous affects on stocks. Tax season is here and the federal government is as dumb as a box of pavers. Don’t expect anything extraordinary in the month of May through September. I know this will be a hard tape, one that requires stock picking abilities. You’re not going to be able to just mail it in anymore.

My largest positions are short AG, long HDGE. FRO, GNK, short JCP, short CCL, short PBR make up less than 20% of assets. The bulk of my interests lie in cash, about 60% of it. Try not to get twisted in knots, attempting to throw meatloaf at my person.

There is nothing you can say to me now, not ever, so don’t even try it.

For the day, I am up 0.1%.

Now to the subject at hand. I have my computers working overtime, without pay. They are placing stocks inside of my wishlist, as they decline and hit my targets. The end goal for me is to be long these names, just in time for a market turn.

The jobs report was bad, really bad. We’re living in a Tale of Two cities, absent the guillotines. There are people who live exorbitant lives and then others who scrape by off government assistance (PRSC)–stuck in the mud. At the same time, equity valuations are at their highest points ever, the ultimate kick to the nuts for the guy on furlough, trying to put his kids through college.

My HDGE is lifting as the market craters; but AG (I am short) is lifting too, with precious metals, because some retard forget to sell them this morning. I am also short JCP, CCL and PBR.

For me, even after another FRO cut, this is a 0% day, flat because I saw it coming.

Now some of you might be tempted to swim in the waters, trying to eat a little chum. Don’t be so easy to be lured into the shark infested waters. We have more downside left in this tape.

I’ve always been a strong swimmer, ever since I was a little boy. I could hold my breath for over a minute, traveling clandestinely underwater, like a russian submarine, only Irish/Italian. This market demands patience, so go chill out, eat a bunch of sandwiches, and avoid buying dips that are only going to dip some more.

The NIKKEI is ripping tits to the upside, more than 3.5% to the good. It’s going higher because the Bank of Japan has committed to a staggering $1.4 trillion asset purchasing program.

The whole world is a bitcoin. Get some.
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A few weeks ago a client of mine gave me an order to purchase 20,000 USG @29. It was right after I sold it for $30 and he was adamant that the price was going higher. After all, housing is back and sheetrock is necessary to build new homes.

I told him to “be patient like an elephant and to bide (mind you) his time.”

The stock dipped to $28.50 then went back to $29.5 (approximate values). He called me up to chastise why he didn’t get filled. He declared “you elephants don’t listen to instructions, yadda, yadda, yadda.”

In so many words, I asked him to “STFU (pause) and mind your own business.”

“Go play with your semiconductors and talk to someone who actually cares about your opinion in financial matters.”

I make it a point to avoid all tips and advice from clients. The last time I listened to a client I sold out of 500,000 SWHC at $7.75. The lows.

Since our exchange, USG has cratered amidst rumors of pricing problems and a slowdown in construction jobs. It’s all hyperbole. But my patience has saved this piker 70 grand.

Did he call me up to thank me?

Of course not. Ingrates are never wrong.

He merely commented that “sometimes it pays to be an elephant.”

I’ll be sure to charge him elephantine fees when it comes time to buy USG.

It was an all around bad day, for HORATIO CLAWHAMMER. After being elated with fresh 52 week lows this morning in both AG and JCP, they spring boarded higher–as degenerates shuffled into the 52 week low list, trying to bottom feed some crumbs from the gravel.

On top of that, my last remaining position of size, FRO, took another blow–as shipping rates continue to slide. They were going up for weeks, coinciding with share price recoveries. But now they’re heading lower again.

FRO is refusing some cargo because they are losing money on shipping goods. There are so many ships out there, pirates navigating the seas, the entire industry is going to bankrupt itself. It’s beyond absurd. Back in 2008, these clowns were getting paid over $200,000 per day: now they’ll be luck to get 10k. Nonetheless, some people think rates could be bottoming, as supply disappears due to broad ranging insolvency.

FRO locked up its financing and doesn’t have any near term maturities. Therefore, it’s a lotto ticket without risk of default, any time soon.

I’ll be watching rates ever so closely and keep you appraised if and when there is a sea-change (pun intended).

I was down 1.3% for the day, despite having 60% in cash.

Some of you are beguiled by the seemingly downward spiral in the shipping sector, following my brazen FRO and GNK purchases. As if my declaration of “wanting a quick and expeditious bankruptcy in the name, so that the shares can move higher” wasn’t warning enough for the small amount of grey matter floating around in your skull.

I’ve always said, from the second I bought FRO, it was a hardcore, almost pornographic, degenerate gambler play. Since then, the stock is down 10%, amidst a general market correction. As a result, you’ve bankrupted yourself again.

Geez.

Don’t look now, but the market is trying to make me look bad, after penning such dire predictions in a previous post. As such, the lowest of the low sector on earth, the boats, are attempting to lift out from the morass of sucking.

OSGIQ is leading the charge! (LOL)

Other notable movers are FREE, VLCCF, TK, DCIX, DSX and SB.

One week returns are dreadful, most in the double digits. However, if you look at the space over 1-6 months, you will find outperformance.

In short, stop being a pansy ass and accept responsibility for your own decisions. When playing the lottery, do you get mad and throw a hissy fit, like a small girl, when your numbers aren’t chosen?

Today’s top industries are ridiculous ones: electronics retailers and silver. People are plowing money into BBY and nefarious silver miners as if the year was 2006 and the flat screen had just broken through the middle class ranks.

Let’s see the market for what it is and what it’s going to be.

Barely 50% of stocks are up today and we’ve given back the rally–as all indices are now lower.

The dollar is up, TLT is up and commodities are decidedly lower. This is no longer a “long only” market, but one that you should fear.

For the love of God, people are buying Bitcoins to make money, not to preserve wealth. We’ve hit the apex of speculation and can go no more.

I am officially bearish on the markets, with a net bearish position, no longer interested in hedging–but making money on the downside. There is a distinction between the two. The majority of my cash (60%) will remain idle, as the market corrects. There will be moments of weakness, where I jump in prematurely, so know that in advance.

If I am right, the market meanders in a tight range until late April, then drops off the table in May for a 5%+ decline, exacerbated by further losses in June.

But remember, there is nothing wrong with a little correction. We need to nourish the tree of the markets with the blood of the moronic trader.

I can’t remember ever seeing a currency down 3.5% in a day and that being good news for the host country.

Last night the Bank of Japan announced they were going to buy bonds, up to 40 year maturities, forever, open ended. In other words, they are following the golden path of Benjamin Bernanke and have begun to QE themselves to prosperity.

Tell me, do I lie?

The auto makers, HMC and TM, are the obvious winners in a weak yen environment. I’ve been highlighting Japan for 6 months now and it is my favorite market.

The big winners will be companies with NIKKEI exposure, NMR, MTU and MFG come to mind. But HIG (I sold yesterday) also has some interesting upside exposure there too.

The easiest way to play it, ironically, is through an American asset manager, WETF. Wisdom Tree owns the only hedged ETF, DXJ, which has been enjoying 90%+ organic growth in assets raised, because it is the only way to enjoy the upside of the NIKKEI, while hedging out the currency risk.

WETF makes for a great acquisition target for BLK, who owns the iShares family of funds.

Lastly, there is a double inverse, triple lindy, way to play the denigration of the Yen, via YCS.

Nice bounce today. It’s hard to bet against the guy with the printing press.

JCP is hitting fresh 52 week lows. Perhaps investors took another look at Ron Johnson’s proposed savior– Joe Fresh– and had a change of heart.

No word on how “Montauk” Bill Ackman feels about this, or George Soros removing hundreds of millions from Pershing Square.

Don Harrold sums it up perfectly. Buyer beware.

Last time I checked, Bitcoins were trading at $133.

With gains in my AG short eclipsing 13% and the stock recovering half of today’s losses, I am adding to my position through the short sale of an additional 10,000 shares.

God willing, all of the silver bulls will perish and a new age of fiat currency can run amok, side by side, with the internet nerds safely housed in Bitcoins.

The market is bouncing here and both gold and silver are coming off the lows, which is allowing for some breathing room to exist in the miners. However, I believe this to be a temporary phenomenon.

I have one more tranche of dollars set aside to short AG higher, if need be.

“The Fly” doesn’t offer safe haven or respite to his enemies, in this case silver longs. He sweeps the leg, Johnny, every single time.