UGLY FACED SELL OFF

I hate the market right now and feel handcuffed from taking action. I don’t want to short and I don’t want to buy. I just want to wait.

Muni and government bond funds are approaching absurd levels, some down more than 20% in recent months. REITs are dead. And, all of a sudden, the great housing boom is dead.

Something has to give.

We’re either heading back into a self-inflicted recession, by tapering, or this is all parlour tricks to get you, the unwashed, to surrender your 401k’s and IRA’s to the market.

I got crushed today; but that’s okay. It’s part of the design.

Are you a lamb or a lion?

If you want to delve into the trash heap of Wall Street and buy some illiquid chinese stocks, you might make some money. Other than that, everything is down. The higher rates go, the more people sell their stocks, fearing some sort of “black swan” event might take place.

Aside from buying a little DDD today, I don’t have an interest in buying the decline, just yet. Perhaps I will feel different about it tomorrow. I am more of a momentum buyer, if anything else. Essentially, I am being greedy, awaiting for good prices to buy more IMMR, AMBA, POWI and YELP.

With my core positions heading lower, I might as well keep my cash available, to buy more core.

Unless something pops out at me as a “dunk shot” play, I am going to wait for the market to turn, then step in and buy.

My largest position, IMMR, is getting smashed on a daily basis, ever since their record earnings.

Why?

More sellers than buyers.

For some reason, people tend to sell IMMR when AAPL is going higher, being that they make more than 50% of their revenues from Samsung. There is room for both to grow, in harmony, and IMMR is getting very cheap.

I’m not particularly concerned over the precipitous drop. I’ve chalked it up to “low volume, bad market, bs.” Being that I sold a healthy amount in the mid $14’s and have plenty of cash, I don’t mind the price decline, especially since I feel it’s worth a lot more than $12.95.

The only other stock that I am looking at is FLTX. It’s a great little company, perfect for this environment of absurd gasoline prices.

This is typical summer malaise, mixed with a little taper. Relax and wait for the inflection point. It’s coming soon.

I just couldn’t bring myself to the vagrancy level of Chinese lotto stocks. Instead, I am playing lotto with my 3-d glasses on, long DDD.

Look at some of these chinese stocks again, pure jackpot.

HPJ, BITA, EJ, SFUN, CPSL, LTON, MCOX, AMAP and VIPS through the roof.

I am bored. Therefore, it’s incumbent upon me to play the chinese lottery. It’s chinese lotto time and I too want my share of the millions being made in seconds, long degenerate names. I understand this is counterproductive, with regards to preserving cash for a worthy endeavor. But I need to get my lotto on, god damn it.

DEVELOPING…

I realize a great many of you want to make mountains out of mole hills, exclaim the ‘market has topped’, then ride off into the sunset a future billionaire, long TZA. Truth be told, this sell off is tepid, conjured up by the bowels of wall street, designed to scare people into surrendering their retirement accounts.

Sure, rates are going up and the rate of change is startling. The chinese economy is definitely slowing and commodities are indicating some sort of hyper-active deflation is lurking, just ’round the corner.

I don’t play these games anymore and the fate of the market isn’t up for debate.

I will not entertain your thoughts or guesses any longer, because they’ve proven to be money losers over a very long period of time.

Here is what is going to happen, to the exact detail.

The markets will weaken from late August until the end of September, luring a fresh batch of “Hugh Hendry’s” into the fray. Then, just when everyone gears up for an “October surprise”, they will all be ushered into the smoke pit, to the BBQ’d alive, coin and all.

“The Fly” doesn’t subscribe to your dire predictions. Instead, he deems you to be an idiot of the first order.

Let the wine flow and the people frolic. In the meantime, I will bide my time very carefully, plotting to reallocate my 34% cash horde into meaningful positions, like a vampire, drinking the blood of your families net worth.

My teeth are sharp.

I am back in the north, where the wind is cold and the people are smart. Ninety percent of the people who live in Princeton are somewhat intelligent, as opposed to 90% of the folks in Richmond, who are in fact drunk–including children.

I did, however, enjoy my stay at Fredericksburg. I did all of the usual tourist stuff and was fascinated by the rich history that is preserved in that town. I highly recommend it for anyone who is interested in going on a road trip down south.

If in fact you ever stay in Richmond, be sure to steer very clear of The Westin hotel. It is a 100% hovel, this is easily bested by the very clean and accommodative Hampton Inn. When it comes to hotels, “The Fly” doesn’t aim for the most luxurious, but the cleanest–analyzed closely by the reviews left on Tripadvisor.com. If, by chance, there is a 4 star, highly rated hotel, in the city I am staying in, then I will book it. Otherwise, it’s Hampton Inn all the way– or a top notch bed and breakfast.

I see the market sucked this week. I’ve been out of the loop, so why don’t you fill me in on why the market fell?

All opinions are welcomed.

Just when you thought gold was dead, it climbs out of its grave and runs throughout town eating the brains of its inhabitants.

Every single time I think to myself “Jakegint must be dead”, gold and silver bottoms. It’s amazing, frankly. But the bounce in gold has been nothing less than stellar. I’ve missed out on it, but there is a lesson in this.

The lesson is, with reference to this particular market:

NOTHING stays down. Certain stocks might “go away”; but rarely do we see entire sectors/industries stuck in a bear market for the long term. Had you bought gold miners when I was saying “they are going to zero”, you would’ve made 50-100% on your money. I shouldn’t be slighted for having this position. I am merely a reflection of the market and I don’t have strong feelings for the miners. For me, saying “miners suck” is as natural as a person from Fredericksburg to lament “yankee invaders” from dining at their truck-stop eateries.

Down sectors that have catapulted higher include: shippers, alternative energy, refiners, nuclear, solar, chinese burritos etc.

The moral of the story is, buy the blood and be patient.

As for this market, it looks awful, which probably means it’s going to bounce soon–and hard.

Look, if you’re biased long, this is what you want, down stocks and stupid money. This is a process and I hope you were smart enough to raise some cash when things were good. Be patient with the average ins and you’ll end up a winner. Buy quality.

My purchase of YELP was a loser today, but I will buy it all the way down if I have to. Do you know why?

Conviction.

I’ve concluded that I need to be long a certain sector and a select group of stocks, and I will do exactly just that. If I lose money in the short term, that is perfectly fine with me, as long as I don’t “Bill Ackman” myself into a fag-box.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZjms7rRAQw

How dare you talk to me, like I am some sort of panhandler in the streets, begging for scraps of bagels! I informed you, whether you took the advice or not, that I sold out of my non-core positions because the market felt weak. And you have the audacity, the gall, to tell me that market is beating me because of my hubris?

You should be ashamed of yourself and this shame should last for 10 generations, staining your family name for the next 500 years.

I am very tempted to buy here. However, since I am on “vacation” and away from my data, I am just going to leave things the way they are until next week. I’d hate to start buying, then see the market down 5%. That would mess up my vibe.

Truth be told, it’s CHINESE LOTTO TIME again. Every single day another chinese stock hits the lottery for its shareholders. Today, that name is FFHL, up a modest 200%. WH is a sideshow, up a mere 35%.

I am compiling some names for purchase and will be ready to act soon. I might even nibble on some YELP before I head out.

UPDATE: I added to YELP in the $48’s

It’s time for you to shut up again.

This isn’t an econ blog, or some place where muppets go to trade stocks and gossip about business. This is the blog of “The Fly”, where men die trying to outsmart him and women are strictly prohibited. I am a firm believer in the olde school. Some of you jelly fondlers  think old school is 1990 or 1950. Le Fly is going way back, to the damnest part of the Dark Ages, the year 476 when men died over friendly contests and women stood at home to make stew out of water and grass.

I will talk about stocks when I am good and ready.

I took a lashing to the face today, with IMMR heading lower again. YELP and POWI are dripping daily and the market is generally stupid. I have 35% of my assets in cash and have my eye on two biotechs. But, they’re thinly traded and cannot allocate much to them.

I do like the dips in OWW and TRIP and will consider adding to my YELP position at around $48.

For now, my core positions are IMMR, YELP and POWI. Everything else is simply a trade, designed to finance my core.

Futures are lower because John Chambers still works for CSCO.

See you suckers tomorrow. And remember, shut up.

GREETINGS FROM THE PART OF VIRGINIA WHERE SOUTHERNERS HOLD DEAR.