Amazingly, S&P futs are up more than 20, following Larry Summers removing his name for new Fed chief. Apparently, the market approves of having a non-partisan bastard hack at the helm of the most important American institution.
I’d be shocked if this rally wasn’t sold off. Nevertheless, we are at the heights of hedonism and excess.
The house of pain continues for the vagabond short sellers, bankrupting themselves for believing everyone else will go bankrupt.
Irony at its best.
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Why, he was here. And this is what he had to say, on this brisk Sunday afternoon, exactly 5 years from the meat and bones of the financial meltdown.
Sunday, 9/14/2008
UPDATE IV: Sorry for the damn site going offline (I really wish I could curse right now). I have no idea what happened. My guess, Lehman Brothers got all pissed about my “fortune cookie curse” on them and ordered a web assault on iBC. Apparently, our fate is intertwined with Lehman.
Mini Update within a bigger Update: The site was hacked down by egregious iBankers. We are fighting them on the internets. Developing…
Odd, no?
Anyway, BAC just made a massive error, through buying MER. Essentially, the Fed is forcing them to do this deal. Everyone knows, they can get MER for $15 or less. Instead, they are trying to paint the pig gold and tell us it’s a golden bowling ball. It’s not. It’s a stupid pig with gold pain on it.
With that in mind, expect to see BAC at new lows, within weeks. And, on a big spike, I might short some MER, based upon the insane theory that BAC shareholders may say “hmmm, this deal blows, cancel it now.”
Basically, BAC is the biggest bagholder known to modern finance. I am sure Cramer will find the silver lining inside the nuclear bomb crater and suggest we go out and buy banks, again.
Then we have AIG. KKR and JC Flowers just walked away from a tentative deal with them. Basically, they need to raise $40 billion, in order to avoid a credit downgrade. Because of this, they want the Fed to give them a bridge loan of $40 billion: ROFL.
Are they nuts?
Finally, the hapless banks are concocting some new liquidity pool, in order to create liquidity. Shocker. Ignore their efforts and buy SRS, SKF and short LM, with great vigor.
The market should get stomped out tomorrow, led by free falling banks and massive drop in the dollar.
UPDATE III: Merrill’s board is voting on a $29 per share offer (all stock) from BofA. If this dilutive deal goes through, expect the shares of BAC to get mudstomped. This is a highly irresponsible move, on behalf of BofA. I am sure their shareholders would appreciate it if they could wait until Tuesday to negotiate a buy out price. My guess, they could bag MER for $10 or less, if they keep their cool.
UPDATE II: In light of the probable unwinding that will occur, here is a short list of Lehman Brothers’ top holdings:
General Electric Company [[GE]]
Pfizer Inc. [[PFE]]
Target Corporation [[TGT]]
UBS AG (USA) [[UBS]]
Linn Energy, LLC [[LINE]]
GLG Partners, Inc. [[GLG]]
Merck & Co., Inc. [[MRK]]
Microsoft Corporation [[MSFT]] [[CME]]
Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]]
Apple Inc. [[AAPL]]
Flagstone Reinsurance Holdings Limited [[FSR]]
WellPoint, Inc. [[WLP]]
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. [[WMT]]
Exxon Mobil Corporation [[XOM]]
UnitedHealth Group Inc. [[UNH]]
Google Inc. [[GOOG]]
Johnson & Johnson [[JNJ]]
Baidu.com, Inc. (ADR) [[BIDU]]
UPDATE: Should AIG catch a credit downgrade, they will face a 46 billion dollar cash call: ROFL. That’s like Dr. Evil type money. God help us.
S&P futures indicate a 36 point drop (3%), thus far. CDS spreads have widened by 30 basis points.
NOTE: As soon as I can start cursing again, Dick Bove is getting a “lifetime achievement” As*hat Award.
Developing…
Look at everyone trying to describe this 150mph head on collision as some sort of final capitulation, a buying opportunity. Watch them talk garbagio about how insignificant Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] was and how if we just close our eyes, we will not see American International Group, Inc. [[AIG]] melt away.
Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] just threw an oversized anvil on their shareholders, via buying Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. [[MER]] —at way too high of a price. We all know they could have bought them for like 10 billion. Instead, I guess they thought it made “sense” to take the life savings of coal miners and school teachers in order to buy them for 44 billion.
Right, that makes sense.
Enough of the news; let’s talk turkey.
On this little tiny dip, I will buy more [[SKF]] . There is no way in hell those bastards from Wells Fargo & Company [[WFC]] ] should be green, yet they are. Look for Citigroup Inc. [[C]] and Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] to continue to drive SKF higher, especially with all the arbs on BAC now.
Also, Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] is wrong, as usual. I will try to short more.
And, I will begin to short AXA (ADR) [[AXA]] . These European noodles have investment risk everywhere. They are as stupid as Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] , only 1,000 times bigger. Just know, AXA is long 132 million shares of American International Group, Inc. [[AIG]] .
Wonderful.
Finally, my head is being “Talibanned” off via egregiously weak oil stocks. From [[DIG]] to Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] , pain is abundant. At the moment, I am closing my eyes to the weakness, sort of like how Cramer only likes to accentuate his green stocks, while his “charitable portfolio” is down 25%, year to date.
Luckily for me, my “uncharitable portfolio” is up more than 40%.
Top pick: SKF
Hey, let’s raise rates (remember that?). I believe it was the Fast Money gang (Guy Adami) who was suggesting we might enjoy a massive 3rd quarter rally, spearheaded by CDO markups. Buy the banks, no?
Where are the Warren Buffett rumors? Every time the market dumps out, they pull Buffett out of a potato sack and spread scurrilous rumors about his pending “white knight” investment. It never pans out. Buffett is old and cranky. He hates bailing people out, let alone buy himself a decent suit.
Shall we ignore AIG‘s trillion dollar meltdown?
I swear, men with charts should be sent to military work camps. As soon as the vix hit 30, buyers started stepping in. If you really think about it, men with charts are pretty much the dumbest people on the face of the earth, right below spastic retards, who buy Wells Fargo & Company [[WFC]] and U.S. Bancorp [[USB]] , in florescent orange jumpsuits.
The Fed will not cut rates tomorrow. However, in the event that they do, my oil stocks will surge. Either way, I win, at least half way.
At the present, I find it acceptable to lose money in my oils, providing my bank shorts eat pavement.
The next boot to drop has to be in commerical real estate. I have contacts in the field and almost all of them think they are immune. They have a certain smugness about their business and it irritates “The Fly.” These people are mentally impaired—I’ll have you know. On this display of hubris, I want to sell short Vornado Realty Trust [[VNO]] , Boston Properties, Inc. [[BXP]] , Simon Property Group, Inc [[SPG]] and SL Green Realty Corp. [[SLG]] or just get lazy and go long [[SRS]] .
Finally, I think it’s important to note the bag holders of American International Group, Inc. [[AIG]] equity. Here are a few publicly traded companies, who have massive AIG common stock on their books:
AXA (ADR) [[AXA]] : 161 million shares
State Street Corporation [[STT]] : 96 million shares
Barclays PLC (ADR) [[BCS]] : 94 million shares
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation [[BK]] : 31 million shares
Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] : 29 million shares
Northern Trust Corporation [[NTRS]] : 29 million shares
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. [[TROW]] : 23 million shares
Janus Capital Group Inc. [[JNS]] : 19 million shares
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] : 17 million shares
Morgan Stanley [[MS]] : 16 million shares
Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] : 16 million shares.
Dealbreaker has a nice summary outlining who got screwed by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] . However, as you know, the media is so past Lehman. That is very early September 2008.
Instead, let’s focus on a possible American International Group, Inc. [[AIG]] buyout. After all, should AIG get bought out, that would mean everything is gravy train again, no? By the way, AIG is not down 60% for the day; it’s up 50% from the lows. I guess you didn’t get the memo.
This all brings us to tomorrow’s Fed meeting:
In light of Wall Street’s non-stop whining over a rate cut, I am beginning to think Bernanake may actually do it. Logic dictates the Fed would be stark raving mad to lower rates. However, that never stopped them before.
So, with this in mind, sadly, I will cease shorting banks(for the day) and put my money towards depressed oil shares.
At the present, [[SKF]] is my largest position and I would love to buy more—for I think it’s worth $140, easy. But, I need to remind myself how stupid all of the dip buyers are, with their Crameresque mannerisms and Larry Kudlow patience.
Temper your moves with extended breaks. Go for a walk. Eat a sandwich and drink a 40oz. of malt liquor. By the time you come back, the market will be at the lows of the day, effectively poleaxing all of the idiots with online trading accounts.
To sum things up: I will hold my powder, until 3:30. If I buy anything, it will be Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] or [[DIG]] . Let’s not get all gay and start saying “markets bottom on these type of events.” That is just plain huckery and untrue.
NOTE: How amusing would it be to see the MER and CFC acquisitions put BAC into receivership?
NOTE II: The mandatory Buffett rumor has been dismissed as lies. Shocker.
Hank Paulson, Bailout Guy, U.S Government, Goldman Sachs
Hey people. There is no moral hazard. Our financial system is the envy of the world. Do yourselves a favor and go buy some bank stocks, especially Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] , or we’ll kick you out of your homes (we own them now) and kill you.
I am getting my teeth kicked in, holding [[DIG]] , [[IEO]] , Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] and Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] —amongst others. However, my scientific blend of shorts:longs has resulted in a 1.9% gain—intra-day.
On days like this, it’s important to evaluate your portfolio. This is the stress test that will determine how prepared/unprepared you are. If you are having a very bad day, you are too long. On the other hand, if you are up too much, be careful and throw some longs on the sheets.
Reason being: the market never cooperates. The market is filled with idiotic participants (Vince Farell) who diligently work to delay the inevitable. It’s like one big game of chicken. Who will turn first?
I’ll have you know, “The Fly” drives a mean time machine, armed with machine guns and internet laser beams, capable of “junking” his opponents into a small stack of garbage.
Currently, I have no reason to make a move. My allocation is perfect—not too risky nor conservative. Best case scenario, oil runs and banks crap out. However, I don’t think that will happen anytime soon.
Look at National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] and ask yourself: “would I rather own that business or Citigroup Inc. [[C]] ?” Then make your move.
Going into the close, I will try to short Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] and Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] . Both of them have a lot further to drop. Also, I am short Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] . That stock is trading “graveyard grim.”
NOTE: PZN is going to zero, in my humble opinion.
You assholes better not question “The Fly’s” time machine usage, ever again.
Do you think it’s a coincidence that on the same day I am released from profanity prison, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] files for bankruptcy protection? Come on. I’ve been “fortune cookieing” those cocksuckers for months now. This is called perfect symmetry.
I’ve been meaning to tell you assholes off, for a long time now. It’s been building up inside of me, like some sort of profanity filled volcano, minus the lava and other volcanic materials.
From this day forth, never question Senor Tropicana’s market wizardry—not matter how egregious his losses may appear to be. Just know, I have this stock game locked the fucked down, fuckface, like some sort of prisoner of war—minus the prison and absence of any semblance of a real war.
Into the fire, I am buying more [[SRS]] and shorting more Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] . I expect the fucktards, who make our cheese (government), will make a valid attempt to manipulate this fucker (market) higher. However, just know, the economy has yet to tank, meaning the writedowns and earnings shortfalls have only just begun.
As I write this, the Gov’t cheese makers are asking Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] to help fund American International Group, Inc. [[AIG]] . The funny shit is, inside of 6 months, GS will need help too. The way the big white shoe firms are structured, none of them will make it, including GS and Morgan Stanley [[MS]] . They will have to merge with traditional deposit based banks, in order to fuck America a little more directly.
In closing, evil Fly is back, with the fury and stamina of 100 mountain lions inside a locked Lehman conference room, filled with iBankers.
Top pick: Fuck Bill Miller, via shorting Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]]
NOTE: You are witnessing a Dow 30 component about to go bankrupt, in AIG. Next is Citigroup Inc. [[C]] , then General Motors Corporation [[GM]] .
I am giving out emergency asshat awards, first thing tomorrow morning. I am having the trophies shined up real nice, right now.
In the meantime, American International Group, Inc. [[AIG]] just had their debt downgraded for them. It’s all over. They will be filing for bankruptcy protection by Wednesday, despite what you SKF to $80 tools say.
The gravity of a sitting Dow 30 component filing bankruptcy protection is huge, and entirely fucktarded, all at once.
Aside from the massive amount of exposure to AIG debt and preferreds, remember who is long the common, for they will be assclown fucked in early trading tomorrow. My favorite shorts are [[AXA]] and [[LM]].
AXA (ADR) (AXA: 28.13 -10.90%) : 161 million shares
State Street Corporation (STT: 69.53 -3.03%) : 96 million shares
Barclays PLC (ADR) (BCS: 21.48 -14.69%) : 94 million shares
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK: 36.56 -8.49%) : 31 million shares
Legg Mason, Inc. (LM: 36.30 -10.15%) : 29 million shares
Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS: 84.09 -3.44%) : 29 million shares
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW: 53.98 -6.02%) : 23 million shares
Janus Capital Group Inc. (JNS: 21.67 -8.60%) : 19 million shares
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS: 135.50 -12.13%) : 17 million shares
Morgan Stanley (MS: 32.19 -13.54%) : 16 million shares
Bank of America Corporation (BAC: 26.55 -21.31%) : 16 million shares.
As far as the debt is concerned, the holders are foreign governments and large banking institutions. Essentially, this credit crisis destroyed the fucking world as we know it, yet the SEC and the fucking assholes from FINRA are too busy going after penny stock promoters. Fucking asshole motherfuckers.
Can someone please go to jail for this? Anyone?
Maybe we can start off with the tanned man in the Lambo?
Every month I publish a seasonality report in The PPT, using its seasonality tools. For the month of September, ULTA was an interesting pick because of its history. This is what ULTA has done in the month of September, over the past 6 years.
Pretty impressive.
“Now what’s the next one?” says the lurch in the reader class section of the website. I’ll get to it straight away, master.
Here is what stands out to me (link to screen for PPT members)
FFIV
CAAS
KNDI
GURE
STMP
LCC
GOOG
DAL
AUDC
BTU
ALGT
HOLI
RJET
COH
GS
In summary, chinese and airline stocks tend to do well. GPS has been up 22 of 25 years in October, for an average return of 4.8%. And KMP has been up 19 of 20 years, for an average return of 4.4%. It’s hard to dismiss these numbers as “mere coincidence.”
The best performing ETFs have been EWM, GXC and TBT, again solidifying the case for Asian stocks.
On the downside, RGLD, RSOL, HSOL, MNKD, GTAT, CSIQ and OWW stand out as miserable performers (here is that screen for PPT members).
SYNM has gone down 13 of the last 14 years, in the month of October, for an average loss of 11.78%.
The worst performing ETFs have been TAN, FXP, DUG and DFJ.
Comments »I was looking at GOGO spike into the bell, watching it become my largest position, passing IMMR, then decided to sell half. Ahead of next week’s Fed meetings, I believe it to be prudent to raise capital for a rainy day or two.
With the GOGO sales, I am now in a 30% cash position.
Comments »What business can you make thousands or millions per day, depending on your status, while hanging out with illegal mexicans, who happen to be digging holes in your backyard.
It was a very nice week, despite the drop in CVV. We’ll get those suckers next week.
Twitter is coming public and euphoria is running high. Although I believe there will be a broad market pullback in October, stock pickers, like you and I, can make money in any tape.
Later on tonight, or tomorrow, I will do a brief seasonality report for October and highlight how ULTA is a dunk shot in September, possibly picking some “dunk shots” for October too.
Top picks: GOGO, IMMR
UPDATE: I sold half of my GOGO position to lock in a +31% one week gain. It was my largest position and became too overweight, so I trimmed it.
Comments »I am 80% long. But, I’ve taken a 50% reduction to my equity exposure this week. I don’t want to get too greedy, like Hansel in a chocolate factory.
I will tell you what I want to buy, because you’re not a threat to me, small pikers swimming in an ocean of sharks.
I want to own OWW, MHO and RBCN. I’m hearing the new iPhone will have a sapphire home button and camera. Therefore, this is extremely bullish for RBCN and GTAT.
OWW is down because its largest shareholder has been selling, hardly a reason for a 30% sell off.
And, lastly, I want to own housing into weakness. The market is on and off with the housing sector. I am thinking the sell off is almost done. Once rates normalize, people will come back to the housing sector and these names will be hitting 52 week highs again.
I also have my eyes on Ag chems, like MOS and IPI. But I think it’s a bit early for them.
As of now, I am exactly flat for the day.
Comments »Remember the debt ceiling debate? Well, the republicans are mad and they’re not gonna take it anymore. They view the Obama administration as disdainful to the office of the President and are fixin’ to shut this government the hell down, in order to prevent the damned Chinese from lending us anymore of their dirty money.
Gods, guns and grits: that’s what we’re looking forward to in the weeks and months ahead. Mix in a little gold standard request, and we might have ourselves a good olde fashioned government shut down.
Today’s action is decidedly negative and anti-climatic. Like I said yesterday, dark clouds are massing in the not-so-distant future. There are men, behind every corner, trying to castrate you. Do not let them grab a hold you, for you will regret it for as long as you live.
Raise a little cash.
Comments »The buzz word is “Twitter” and Wall Street wants to get this IPO right, following the Facebook disaster. These stocks are trading at very rich valuations because, it’s widely believed, this is where the growth is going to be, for the foreseeable future.
To play Twitter ahead of the IPO, GSVC and SVVC are your plays.
Based on price to sales, which is how social media stocks are being assessed, here is the run down.
YELP 23x
LNKD 23x
Z 23x
FB 18x
TRLA 16.5x
YY 13x
BIDU 12x
TRIP 12x
YNDX 10x
YOKU 10x
SINA 10x
OPEN 10x
SALE 10x
CTRP 8x
AWAY 8x
PCLN 8x
P 7x
ANGI 6x
GOOG 5x
GRPN 3x
ZNGA 2x
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This is a surprise.
The only way to play the IPO, before it comes public, is via GSVC. GSV’s VC fund owns Twitter and it comprises 15% of their holdings.
However, the CEO of GSV, Michael Moe, HATES his shareholders– literally. Each and every time the stock goes up, the company files for a secondary, so that greedy bastard can raise more capital and pay himself exorbitant fees. It’s a crime what he is doing. I will NEVER buy GSV again.
Having said that, GSVC might spike off this news. But, I expect it will be sold 100 different ways but loose, upon the pricing of Twitter.
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I was up 3.5% earlier in the day. It had the feeling of excess. I knew it was a good time to go to cash, but I’m invested, emotionally, into a belief system. You know what happens when you invest with your heart? You get a heart attack.
I’m barely up now, just +0.2%, as GOGO limps into the bell.
That’s life. I started with a box chevy, so this is nothing.
We’re going higher, but we’re probably going down first.
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