If This Isn’t Madness, I Don’t Know What Is

Facebook is buying What’s App for freakin’ 19 billion dollars.

Such a valuation, puts What’s App above companies like Ralph Lauren and Cambell Soup. With just 55 employees, it’s fair to say this little, stupid, company just hit the internet lottery.

Tell your stubborn kids to take computer science classes in college and ditch finance.

Coffee, represented by JO, has been the biggest loser for years. It went down, down and down, much to the pleasure of coffee retailers, like SBUX, GMCR and SJM. However, all of that is about to change. Their easy going lives of never having to worry about the peasant coffee farmer asking for too much is ending, rather abruptly.

Sure, SBUX and co have locked in prices, at least for awhile. But prices have broken out, commodities have broken out, which is the overarching trend of 2014. For the year, my commodity index, which is domiciled inside of The PPT, is up nearly 9%.

What’s next to go? Maybe some SOYB, SGG, CORN, WEAT or maybe some BAL?

One thing is for certain: 2014 is not like 2013 or 2012. The commodity rally had teeth and I expect to see gold and silver continue to thrive under these conditions.

Long EGO and EZPW.

Zales is just about the very worst company in the world. But they are being bought out today for $21 per share. Do you know where ZLC traded last year? It traded about 4 bucks per share. In other words, the sages from SIG decided it made sense to buy the debt strapped retailer of diamonds for more than 5x what is was trading for last year.

Are people crazy?

Sure they are.

The problem with shorting stocks is the fact that a ZLC can happen at any given moment. Take GMCR as an example. They reported milquetoast numbers and received a token investment from a hasbeen merchant of sugar water and the stock has gone up 50% since then. Is that reasonable?

I’ll tell you what’s reasonable: to squeeze the faces of the people who are short GMCR until their heads explode. Run up the stock to $200, even $300; no one will stop you. By then, all of the shorts will be dead and you can relieve yourselves on their graves.

It’s one thing to get bearish and raise cash. But it’s a whole ‘nother story betting against stocks, praying for their demise. The odds are forever against your favour.

Despite the tepid futures quotes on my masheen, I am optimistic about today’s bounty and look forward to seeing yet another upside reversal.

We haven’t been down more than 2% in March since 2001 and that was a very special situation, post 9/11. If we were going to trade down, it’d be in February. I gave it the old college try, went to cash, starting conducting black magic rituals at night under the full moon. I even sacrificed some livestock in honour of the stock gods. But nothing worked. This market is fruitier than Rock Hudson.

We’re going higher. And after we’re going higher, we’ll go up some more. We’ll keep repeating this process until the very last bear is shot dead in front of the NYSE.

Knowing that information, are you still angling for “lateral moves” into SPY puts or maybe a little FAZ?

So what the a whole bunch of bankers are committing suicide by shooting nail guns at their heads! That’s what happens when you get depressed.

What are we talking about here? Are we all drunk on stupid or what? There isn’t anything to fear. Earnings are moving quickly into the rear view mirror and the fantasy will soon takeover again. Mergers and acquisitions, FDA trials and rumors, lots of rumors.

I made a mistake when I got cautious. And I know you think that I am making another one right now, getting all boolish again near the highs. After all, The PPT flagged OS when the SPY was at $174. Where’s it trading today?

Follow the liquidity. There’s a raging river of depreciating Japanese Yen out there dying to wash ashore. Are you gonna take it? Are you man enough to take it?

The game is just getting started and March, mark my words, is going to be one for the ages.

I still can’t believe FRX got bought out. And I still can’t believe he bought NFLX at $60, and held most of it the whole way. HLF is reporting tonight and I wouldn’t be surprised if they smashed earnings. However, it is the year of Ackman, as his designs of nerdy revenge are thrusting (no homo) full speed ahead.

The victor shall be revealed soon.

I bought some NUS at around $80. High risk-high reward play.

Speculation is in the air again, sans my stocks. I am flat for the day, while everything else is bucking higher. With the yen the way it is and biotech and chinese stocks on fire, there is a distinct feeling of joy and prosperity in the air.

Quit lamenting over the troubles of the world. The stock market is here to make you feel better.

On days like this, people are much less interested in pawn shops in exchange for WUBA’s or maybe a little SOL. Solar energy is the way of the future, the way of the future.

I don’t have much to say, other than the fact I am looking for one my stock to add to my arsenal. Hopefully I will have it for you by the end of the day.

The YEN-SPY carry trade is now running at about an 80% correlation. When the FXY goes lower, stocks trade higher. Intelligent people borrow yen to buy S&P 500 companies paying handsome dividends. These same individuals then garner the proceeds and buy themselves new Tesla automobiles and summer homes in Bath, France.

Aside from that, the world now revolved around the caprices of a certain Carl Icahn. Talk about having it your way and fast: FRX just got bought out and Mr. Icahn just realized another 300% return.

Chinese burritos stocks are looking good this morning, led by QIHU. The only ones that I like are QIHU, SFUN and YY. For degenerate reasons only, I’m also a fan of WBAI.

Has NUS bottomed and will sapphire on silicon really make it big this go around, helping the prospects for GTAT and RBCN?

Guess what? The Yen is down another 0.43% today, so expect to see your favorite stock edge up a little higher today.

I’m not sure what the demographics are like on this site, especially since I don’t pay any mind to statistics and have a general disdain for that sort of thing–placing people into neatly fit boxes and the like. But I get the sense that a great many of you are under the tender age of 47.5. As you know, anyone older than 47.5 is strictly prohibited from viewing this blog and shall be executed on site, if caught doing so. Furthermore, it is the age at which “The Fly” will retire from blogging, pass on the crown to a younger, more deserving, trader/investor, who will carry on the traditions of financial debauchery, until he relinquishes said throne at 47.5 years of age.

When I was younger, I used to stuff money into envelopes, budgeting for the months’ expenses. One envelope was for “rent”, another for “electricity” and so on and so forth. I spent all of the money that I had, save my investments in the market, which I smartly spared due to keeping the dream alive, supporting a child and wife. I was in my early 20s and the market was an unforgiving monster. I couldn’t handle the volatility and money was tight for a long time.

I recall one New Year’s, being as happy as a troll inside of the comments section, because I had taken home the enormous sum of $4,250. Back then, I thought it was all the money in the world. Soon after New Year’s, my 8 month old son, wife and myself celebrated over dinner at the local diner. I might’ve ordered a “Romanian steak.” The whole meal had to cost no more than $50. But it was a luxury for me, as I was accustomed to living lean and eating even leaner.

As time went on and the market improved, so did my paychecks. I moved out of the basement apartment, which I rented from a bastard of a landlord, and into a brownstone. It took me a long time to move, since I always felt the good times wouldn’t last. A friend of mine, who started the business the same time as me, used to park his brand new Mercedes in my driveway–right outside my basement apartment. He spent his money as fast as he made it. He achieved success faster than me; but his didn’t last as long.

Soon enough, the checks grew from $4,250 to $10,000 to $50,000 per month and so on and so forth. It’s true when they say “the more you make, the more you spend.” Last month we spent upwards of $3,500 on groceries alone. We didn’t buy anything exotic or elaborate, just ordinary meat and vegetables from the local Whole Foods. We are consumers at heart. I think it has a lot to do with mortality and our desire to live the best with the time that we have here. Only a handful of us are able to save a lot of money. Most of the people I know would be flat broke, if it weren’t for their enormous monthly paychecks. Gone are the days of frugality, when people saved for rainy days and put money aside for their children’s inheritance.

These days, I’m afraid the stock market is used to finance the personal pyramid schemes people have going on. They spend so much money on gratuitous items; but make it all up in a week or two at the races, also known as the stock market.  Either way, this is an unsustainable way to live. Get your lives in order, man, else you’ll be singing the blues when this hit parade ends.

We talk about making money a lot here and have plenty of talented traders present to help you make more money. But no one tells you to ease up on the drunken spending sprees. You’re gonna regret it one day, as I’ve once regretted my debaucherous ways. It took a second wind to give my boat another go around, something I am grateful for. It’s not often that people are given a second chance at success. Most of the time you’re given that chance, through hard work or luck; and if you blow it, it’s gone forever. My grandfather comes to mind when thinking about that subject, a story for another day.

The moral of the story is: set up trust accounts, SEP IRA’s, invest in property before you buy that new Benz.  Be smart and try not to live your whole life now, for it’s going to last a long time and you’ll need some of that worthless fiat cash to get you through the latter years.

Everywhere I turn, traditional retailers are struggling, attempting to lure in customers via brick and mortar and fledgling online initiatives. Every quarter we are reminded of how AMZN is killing them and how identity theft is yet another reason to avoid shopping in stores.

Security needs can be accomplished via FEYE and CUDA.

Businesses need to secure files. IMPV does that.

The NSA needs to watch and analyze you. SPLK does that.

Parsing through data is hard. DATA can help.

Analyzing network performance and securing them: SWI, GIMO, PANW and BLOX.

E-commerce solutions: DWRE

I am sure there are many others. Feel free to contribute ideas.

Oh, and for those lazy retailers out there, trying desperately to lure people into their shoppes or online stores, I have just two plays, which should work for years: SALE and CRTO.