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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Fed Warns of Rich Equity Valuations, Cites Forward Price Earnings Ratio As Being Highest in Thirty Years

This is to be expected. We can roll our eyes all we want about Yellen talking smack about the market. Last time I checked, she warned that both biotech and tech stocks were overpriced and guess what? They fucking cratered, shortly thereafter. Before that, Alan Greenspan warned of ‘irrational exuberance’, only to see markets roar higher for another two years, until the fucking world almost ended in 2008.

Granted, initially, biotech surged after Yellen’s warning; but eventually, she was exactly right. The Fed have never been known to time markets on the short term basis. So don’t expect any fireworks due to this warning.

Fed1

Fed2

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Elon Musk Just Made Tesla Short Seller Target Number One With Ill Conceived Bid for Solarcity

This is a deal born in the deepest depths of stupidity. Why on earth would Tesla dilute its awesome and inspiring car manufacturing business with fucking solar panels, other than to ingratiate its CEO, Elon Musk, who is a major shareholder of Solarcity? The optics of this deal are horrendous and it will bring forth a new brand of hatred for the shares of TSLA. And to what end?


TSLA

Shares of SCTY are down 61% over the past 6 months, whereas shares of TSLA are down 5%.

Chanos is not a fan of SCTY.

Chanos part 2.

TSLA is going to get shredded to pieces because of this albatross strapped around its neck.

Chanos on SCTY and TSLA.

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Tesla Makes an Incestuous Bid to Acquire Solarcity

This is the brand of inter-breeding that is loathsome to Wall Street. Solarcity is a proxy company for Jim Chanos’ archenemy, Elon Musk. The stock has been pummeled to pieces for good reason. Chanos said, earlier in the year, that SCTY would face liquidity issues and made some dire predictions for the stock. Seeing his investment in SCTY wither away into peanuts, Elon Musk convinced his board to step in and acquire the piece of shit for $28.50.

This is poor corporate governance on the part of Tesla, diluting their brand of electric cars and batteries with solar panel horseshit.

 

“We seek to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable transportation by offering increasingly affordable electric vehicles. And in March 2015, we launched Tesla Energy, which through the Powerwall and Powerpack allow homeowners, business owners and utilities to benefit from renewable energy storage. It’s now time to complete the picture. Tesla customers can drive clean cars and they can use our battery packs to help consume energy more efficiently, but they still need access to the most sustainable energy source that’s available: the sun. The SolarCity team has built its company into the clear solar industry leader in the residential, commercial and industrial markets, with significant scale and growing customer penetration. They have made it easy for customers to switch to clean energy while still providing the best customer experience. We’ve seen this all firsthand through our partnership with SolarCity on a variety of use cases, including those where SolarCity uses Tesla battery packs as part of its solar projects. So, we’re excited to announce that Tesla today has made an offer to acquire SolarCity.”

Tesla submits to SolarCity board of directors a proposal to acquire all of the outstanding shares of common stock of SolarCity in exchange for Tesla common shares. Subject to completing due diligence, co proposes an exchange ratio of 0.122x to 0.131x shares of Tesla common stock for each share of SolarCity common stock. This proposal represents a value of $26.50 to $28.50 per share, or a premium of ~21% to 30% over the closing price of SolarCity’s shares, based on today’s closing price of SolarCity’s shares and the 5-day volume weighted average price of Tesla shares. “We believe that our proposal offers fair and compelling value for SolarCity and its stockholders, while also giving SolarCity’s stockholders the opportunity to receive Tesla common stock at a premium exchange ratio and the opportunity to participate in the success of the combined company through their ongoing ownership of Tesla stock.”

In light of Elon Musk’s SEC disclosure obligations in his individual capacity as a stockholder of SolarCity this proposal will be publicly disclosed, but Tesla’s intention is to proceed only on a friendly basis.

On June 20, 2016, Tesla Motors delivered a proposal to the Board of Directors of SolarCity outlining a potential acquisition of SolarCity by Tesla Motors. Subject to completing due diligence and other customary conditions, Tesla Motors has proposed to acquire SolarCity for an exchange ratio of 0.122x to 0.131x for each outstanding share of SolarCity common stock.

The Company intends to carefully evaluate the proposal.

On June 21, 2016, Lyndon Rive, co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of SolarCity, sent a message to SolarCity’s employees discussing the proposal. “I wanted to let everyone know that Tesla has made an offer to acquire SolarCity. I’m really excited about this. There are tremendous synergies between these two companies; Tesla detailed some of them today in this blog post… You should know that the board and the shareholders will be considering this, and so while I am personally excited, I will be recusing myself from the decision-making process. Ultimately, the shareholders will decide. I know you will have questions about Tesla’s offer, and we’ll try to answer them as best we can, as soon as we can, but there is not a lot we can say right now. In the meantime, it’s important we remain focused on continuing to make progress toward our company goals. Our mission to advance the adoption of renewable energy remains as important as ever. There will be a lot of outside interest in Tesla’s offer, and it’s very important that we do not discuss this with anyone outside of the company, or mention it on social media or any other public forums.”

SCTY is higher by 15% to $24.5 in after-hours, well below the purported deal price, as this is an all stock deal. Shares of TSLA are being crucified, off by $25, or 11%.

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Fed Ex Beats Estimates, Shares Fall Nonetheless

America hates shopping malls and have declared them to be dead, via numerous mall based earnings shortfalls. The great satan is Amazon. Until Satan builds its own fleet of trucks and planes to deliver their satanic goods, companies like FDX and UPS will profit.

After the close, shares of FDX are lower after beating estimates, as evil Amazon weighs on the minds of those long.

Earnings for the quarter came in at $3.30 v $3.28, on revenues of $13 billion.

It’s worth noting, however, once Lucifer Bezos builds his fleet, FDX will die a very slow and painful death.

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Examining Some Uncomfortable Truths: The Ark versus Equities

We all want prosperity. The idea of buying a stock and seeing it run is an ideal worth striving for. Since the beginning of the year, I’ve taken a more visceral approach to stocks, casting away the hyper-active trading style for more of a macro, algorithmic based system, one that is predicated around the idea that markets are in fact prisoner to the negative rate conundrum, which is plaguing the world.

This great change in style has caused many of you to question my methods. But you’re not seeing the bigger picture, one that is undeniably ominous.

Over the past two years, stocks have done nothing. As a matter of fact, the only sectors worth writing home to Mom about are one’s beholden to yield and/or a risk off factor. The vast amount of risk assets, by which many of you make a living trading from their wellspring, have traded with an arc-type maleficence, often seen in onerous bear’d markets.

Down2yrs

Up2yrs

For those of you trading for a living, the pool from which you’ve opted to make a living has been a dying one, filled with scams and warnings, a minefield for those with a penchant for losing limbs. My stated goal is to build wealth. I’ve traded for most of my life, all the way back to the age of 10, while most of you were busy climbing and falling out of trees. I am not interested in preservation of capital, however. At least not now. Instead, I am merely following a core thesis, which has been thoroughly examined and enacted through years of professional training and asset management. Moreover, my position in TLT is a logical one, simply following a trend that has been extremely predictable, almost without pause. The question I have for many of you is, why are you fighting this pattern?

TLT

Including dividends, TLT is higher by 30% over the past two years. The bull case for bonds surrounds itself around the seemingly neverending plunging rates in Japan and Europe. While I am unsure as to when markets will explode or implode, I am keenly aware that markets are in a rut of inertia and have blessed those positioned in bonds, NOT stocks.

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This Year’s Top Performing Small Cap Tech Stocks

The following stocks have market caps less than $5 billion, are in the tech space, within 5% of a 52 week high and are the best performing stocks in their sector for 2016.

BEHOLD, the new crop of MSFT, AMZN and NFLX.

QUOT +97%
AMD +90%
APIC +58%
AOSL +56%
XTLY +48%
EBIX +46%
DLB +45%
RRM +44%
AMBR +44%
COHR +43%

COHR looks most interesting to me, due to their laser tech. They dub themselves the world’s largest provider of laser solutions. However, the market has already expressed their bullishness through multiple expansion.

These guys literally make the Orbital Space Cannon (OSC).

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Risk Assets Drop Precipitously, in a Quiet, Do Nothing, Afternoon Session

As markets hug the unch line, a wide array of stocks, like BILL ACKMAN’S PHARMACEUTICAL SHOPPE , VRX, are getting Clubber Lang’d against the ropes.

Inside of Exodus, which many of you were just privy to, my Bubble Basket is getting obliterated, off by 1.7%–thanks in large part to the drop in biotechs.

bubble

biotech

Look at those YTD losses in some of those stocks, out-fucking-rageous. We should expect this type of market up until and after the BREXIT vote. As you see by the action, this referendum is the ultimate bear p0rn. Fear mongers, such as myself, have never had it this good. We can shake you in your boots, menacing you with visions of global tragedy, all dependent upon a public opinion referendum, which will be cast by a lot of uneducated fools. It’s deliciously diabolical.

If I was long, I’d be pissed off by the barrage of interference and red herrings.

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BREXIT POLLS FOR FREEDOM GAIN MOMENTUM, MARKETS FADE

Alas, the bookmakers have become irrelevant, yet again. Personally, I don’t trust any statistic that involves the transfer of money. For the life of me, I cannot figure out why people got hard ons over the bookmakers stats, showing an overwhelming majority of Brits wanted to stay in the EU. That poll is tainted because it is manipulated by people who have a monetary interest and also because it’s operated by mountebanks of the very first magnitude.

In the real world, outside of smashed in faces and cigar eating animals, the people have spoken and they’re leaning towards leaving the catamite infested EU.

 

As a result, markets have faded, once again, as people fear monger themselves out of potentially profitable equities.
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